Lee Rainie, Director of Internet and Technology research, spoke about the skills requirements for jobs in the future at the International Telecommunications Union’s “capacity building symposium” for digital technologies. He discussed the changing structure of jobs and the broad labor force and the attitudes of Americans about the likely changes that robots, artificial intelligence (AI) and other advances in digital life will create in workplaces. The session took place in Santo Domingo on June 18, 2018.

1. Skills requirements for future jobs
10 facts
Lee Rainie
Director, Internet and technology research
Email: Lrainie@pewresearch.org
Twitter: @Lrainie

2. 1) The nature of jobs is changing as the knowledge economy
rises
50%
83
77
18
All occupations
Occupations requiring higher levels of ...
Analytical skills
Physical skills
Social skills
% change in employment, 1980-2015
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/

3. Employment growth projected to be greater in occupations
with higher social or analytical skills
% change in employment, 2014-2024
6.5%
8.1
7.0
6.3
All occupations
Social skills
Analytical skills
Physical skills
Occupations requiring higher levels of ...

4. Math science occupations
STEM-related teachers
Computer occupations
STEM-related
management
STEM-related sales
Physical scientists
Life scientists
Architects, surveyors,
cartographers
Life, physical science techs
Engineers
Drafters, engin.
techs, mapping
techs
Projected growth rates for types of STEM occupations, 2014-2024 – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

5. Computer occupations
Projected new jobs for types of STEM occupations, 2014-2024 – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Engineers
STEM-related
management
Math science occupations
STEM-related
postsecondary teachers
STEM-related sales
Physical scientists
Life and physical sci techs
Life scientists
Architects, surveyors,
cartographers
Drafters, engin. techs,
mapping techs

6. 2) Two-thirds of Americans expect that robots and computers will
do much of the work currently done by humans within 50 years
% of adults who say that in the next 50 years robots and computers will do much
of the work currently done by humans
http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/03/10/public-predictions-for-the-future-of-workforce-automation/

7. 3) People think many professions are at risk – but not their own jobs
% of U.S. adults who think it is ___ likely that the following jobs will be replaced
by robots or computers in their lifetimes
http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/

8. 4) People express more worry than optimism about future automation
http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/
% of U.S. adults who say they are enthusiastic or worried about …

9. 5) Automation, robots, artificial intelligence will even take over
sophisticated tasks
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf
45 years
The timeframe estimated by artificial intelligence experts
when “high level machine intelligence” – unaided machines
that can accomplish any given task better and more
cheaply than humans – will be developed
2024: outperform language translators
2027: drive a truck
2031: work in retail
2049: write best selling book
2053: work as a surgeon

10. 6) Self-driving cars, intelligent digital agents that can act for you,
and robots are advancing rapidly. Will networked, automated,
artificial intelligence (AI) applications and robotic devices have
displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?
52% - more jobs created than destroyed
48% - more jobs displaced than created
http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/08/06/future-of-jobs/

11. 7) People think knowledge of computers, social dexterity,
communications skills and access to training are key to success
40
35
37
33
22
23
10
10
45
49
48
49
47
41
27
25
Extremely
important
Very
important
12
12
13
16
26
26
40
43
Somewhat
important
Having a detailed understanding of how to use
computer technology
Being able to work with people from many different
backgrounds
Training in writing and communicating
Access to training to keep skills up to date
Mastering social media
Knowing a foreign language
Training in math and science
Knowing a computer or programming language
85%
85
85
82
69
64
37
36
NET
% saying these traits are … for workers to be successful in today’s economy
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/

12. 8) Accenture: Look at the ‘missing middle’
Human + Machine – Paul Daugherty, James Wilson

13. 9) Training is now seen as essential
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/

14. 10) In the next 10 years, do you think we will see the emergence
of new educational and training programs that can successfully
train large numbers of workers in the skills they will need to
perform the jobs of the future?
70% - “yes”
30% - “no”
http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/

15. Theme 1) The training ecosystem will evolve, with a mix of
innovation in all education formats
Theme 2) Lifelong learners must cultivate 21st-century skills,
capabilities and attributes: Tough-to-teach intangibles
such as emotional intelligence, curiosity, creativity,
adaptability, resilience and critical thinking will be
most highly valued
Theme 3) New credentialing systems will arise as self-directed
learning expands
http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/

16. Conclusions
• Human-machine relationship is changing: We will all be
cyborgs
• “Stair-stepping” skills upgrades will be ubiquitous
• Data mastery will be a primary “growth” area
• Human consciousness and creativity is our best survival
trait to survive our “computer overlords”
• Adapting our organizational systems of learning and
work will be as important a task as adjusting our
behavior

17. Thank you!
Email: lrainie@pewresearch.org
Twitter: @lrainie
@pewinternet
@pewresearch