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The Internet of Things and Future Shock: Too Much Change Too Fast?

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Lee Rainie, director of Internet, Science and Technology Research at the Pew Research Center, spoke on May 10, 2017 to the American Bar Association’s Section of Science and Technology Law about the rise of the Internet of Things and its implications for privacy and cybersecurity. The velocity of change today is remarkable and increasingly challenging to navigate. Rainie discussed Pew Research Center’s reports about “Digital Life in 2025” and “The Internet of Things Will Thrive by 2025,” which present the views of hundreds of “technology builders and analysts” on the future of the internet. He also highlighted the implications of the Center’s reports on “Americans and Cybersecurity” and “What the Public Knows about Cybersecurity.”

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The Internet of Things and Future Shock: Too Much Change Too Fast?

  1. 1. IoT future shock: Too much change too fast? Lee Rainie Director, Internet, Science, and Technology Research May 10, 2017 ABA: Science and Technology Law
  2. 2. The IoT rollout
  3. 3. BODIES (CYBORGS) ME TRACKERS & DIAGNOSERS INSTANT INTELLIGENCE ON OTHERS & STUFF REMOTE CONTROLLERS REMINDERS AND ARCHIVING EXTRA BRAIN LOBE & PAIR OF HANDS Implantable s
  4. 4. HOMESHOMES SMART SYSTEMS FINDABLE ITEMS WARNING SERVICES ANTICIPATORY & MEDIA DELIVERY SURFACES
  5. 5. COMMUNITIES COMMUNITIES MORE EFFICIENT & CHEAPER SERVICES TRANSPORTATION & PARKING POLLUTION CROWDSOURCED INTELLIGENCE
  6. 6. ENVIRONMENT CLIMATE & POLLUTION MONITOR EARTH SYSTEMS TRACK WILDLIFE & HABITAT INFRASTRUCTURE WARNING SYSTEMS & WEAR AND TEAR
  7. 7. INDUSTRY MAINTAIN/REPAIR SUPPLY CHAIN CONTROL (RETAIL ANALYTICS MONITORING / MAINTAINING ASSETS QUALITY CONTROL
  8. 8. Why this matters
  9. 9. “Earth will don an electric skin” – Neil Gross, 1999 “In the next century, planet Earth will don an electronic skin. It will use the internet as a scaffold to support and transmit its sensations. This skin is already being stitched together. It consists of millions of embedded electronic measuring devices: thermostats, pressure gauges, pollution detectors, cameras, microphones, glucose sensors, EKGs, electroencephalographs. These will probe and monitor cities and endangered species, the atmosphere, our ships, highways and fleets of trucks, our conversations, our bodies--even our
  10. 10. Estimates: Your mileage may vary • IDC forecasts that by this year 60% of global manufacturers will use analytics to sense and analyze data from connected goods/services and soon yield 15% productivity improvements. • IHS Economics forecasts IoT market will grow to 75.4 billion connections by 2025. • Boston Consulting estimates that by 2020, $267 billion will be spent on IoT technologies, products and services. Uses” predictive maintenance, self- optimizing production, automated inventory management, remote patient monitoring, smart meters, distributed generation and storage, fleet management and demand response. • General Electric estimates the Industrial IoT has potential to generate revenues of up to $11.1 trillion on an annual basis by 2025 - $60 trillion will be invested in next 15 years. • Cisco says connected-home machine-to-machine connections will triple
  11. 11. Dyn attack via Murai botnet – October 21, 2016 Exploits Printers Refrigerators Web cams Smart TVs CCTV DVRs IP cameras Resident gateways Baby monitors Light bulbs +more Victims Amazon Netflix Target PayPal NY Times Wall Street Journal Twitter CNN Comcast / Verizon Zillow +scores more
  12. 12. People’s cybersecurity experiences and knowledge
  13. 13. A big problem 41 35 16 15 14 13 6 64 Noticed fraudulent charges on their credit card Received a notice that personal information had been compromised Had their social media account taken over without permission Had their email account taken over without permission Received notice their social security number was compromised Had a loan or line of credit taken out in their name Had a tax refund taken out in their name Any of these
  14. 14. How confident these entities can protect your data?
  15. 15. How people keep track of their passwords
  16. 16. Not best practices • 41% of online adults have shared the password to one of their online accounts with a friend or family member. • 39% say that they use the same (or very similar) passwords for many of their online accounts. • 25% admit that they often use passwords that are less secure than they’d like, because simpler passwords are easier to remember than more complex ones. • 28% of smartphone owners do not use screen locks • 54% use public Wi-Fi networks for sensitive activities like e-commerce and banking
  17. 17. Knowledge – Tier 1
  18. 18. Knowledge – Tier 2 Incorrect Correct Not sure
  19. 19. Knowledge – Tier 3 Incorrect Correct Not sure
  20. 20. Knowledge – Tier 4 Incorrect Correct Not sure
  21. 21. Demographics • Broad differences in knowledge by educational attainment, especially concerning gap between those who ended education at high school and those who have college+ degrees • Modest differences in knowledge by age • Private browsing • GPS function • Multi-factor authentication • Botnet • Public Wi-Fi not always safe
  22. 22. Pew Research Center – Imagining the Internet Center (Elon University) November 25–January 13, 2014 2,551 respondents 19% research scientist 10% authors, editors, journalists 9% entrepreneurs, biz leader 8% tech developers 8% activists 7% futurists, consultants 2% legislators, lawyers 2% pioneers
  23. 23. What’s ahead
  24. 24. Digital Life in 2025 The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill
  25. 25. Bright sides
  26. 26. Theme 1) Information sharing over the Internet will be effortlessly interwoven into daily life making us smarter, safer, more efficient. ‘Computication’ involving ‘smart agents’ will be commonplace.
  27. 27. Theme 2) Artificial intelligence, augmented reality, wearable devices, and big data will make people more aware of their world and their own behavior – which will especially aid in health care.
  28. 28. Theme 3) Social and business encounters will be shaped by virtual reality and telepresence. Interfaces with data and objects will change and become easier. Speech and gesture interaction will matter more
  29. 29. Theme 4) The environment and structures themselves will become ‘intelligent’ and expand our knowledge about them – plus, enable their own ‘maintenance’ and ‘repairs’
  30. 30. Dark sides
  31. 31. Theme 1) Privacy will be more at risk and something perhaps only the privileged will enjoy.
  32. 32. Theme 2) The nature of work will change in unprecedented ways as robots and artificial intelligence assume greater roles in job functions
  33. 33. Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves and have-nots may expand, resulting in resentment and possible violence.
  34. 34. Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing. Those pursuing crime, laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity, pornography, and dirty tricks have new capacity to make life miserable for others.
  35. 35. Theme 5) Humans and their organizations may not respond quickly enough to challenges presented by complex networks.
  36. 36. July 1 – August 12, 2016 1,201 respondents 25% research scientist 14% tech developers 10% activists 9% futurists, consultants 8% authors, editors, journalists 7% entrepreneurs, biz leader 2% legislators, lawyers 2% pioneers New findings – Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center
  37. 37. As billions more everyday objects are connected in the Internet of Things they are sending and receiving data that enhances local, national and global systems as well as individuals’ lives. But such connectedness also creates exploitable vulnerabilities. As automobiles, medical devices, smart TVs, manufacturing equipment and other tools and infrastructure are networked, is it likely that attacks, hacks, or ransomware concerns in the next decade will cause significant numbers of people to decide to disconnect, or will the trend towards greater connectivity of objects and people continue unabated? 15% “more will disconnect” 85% “connection will continue unabated”
  38. 38. Six themes 1) People crave connection and convenience, and a tech-linked world serves both goals well 2) Unplugging is nearly impossible now; by 2026 it will be even more tougher 3) Risk is part of life. The IoT will be accepted despite dangers because most people believe the worst-case scenario would never happen to them 4) Human ingenuity and risk-mitigation strategies will make the IoT safer ----- 5) Notable numbers will disconnect 6) Whether or not people disconnect, the dangers are real. Security and privacy issues will be magnified to a great degree by the rapid rise of the Internet of Things
  39. 39. Fear not

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