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The New Age of Politics and
Media
Lee Rainie - @lrainie
Director - Internet, Science and Technology Research
February 16, ...
Three digital technology revolutions in the
past generation
4
First revolution – Internet (90% use it)
Broadband
1%
73%
2000 2005 2010 2016
Skews younger
More upscale by income and e...
5
Second revolution – Mobile
29%
81%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
95% have cell phones
51% have tablet computers
Smartpho...
Third revolution – Social media
5
%
69%
7
67
15 13
20 16
79
31 32 29
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Facebook Pinterest Instagram LinkedIn Twitter
2012 2013 2...
Big change #1) It networked people
Networked Individualism
The move to looser, far-flung networks
Personal networks are:
More important – trust
Differently composed – segmented,
layered
Big change #2) It networked information
Pew Research danah boyd
pervasive (real-time + all-time) persistent / visible
portable replicable
personal scalable
partic...
Big change #3) It networked the public square
More niches
More topics of
discussion (and
different “news”
agendas”)
More alliances
More arguments
More DIY work
More dis...
More people in decision-
making spaces
crowdsourcing /
funding
More filtering
by algorithms
More evidence (but
not causati...
Big change #4) It networked the political
ecosystem
People are more personally
empowered
Easier to find like-minded allies, even
in tiny niches
Easier to raise money and mobi...
Meanwhile, big changes occur in
political culture
The political landscape of 2016
 Long-term demographic divides in partisanship
 Many – race, gender, age – long pre-date...
The gender gap in partisan identification
% of registered voters who identify as…
Source: Annual Pew Research Center surve...
Non-whites remain a solidly Democratic constituency
Presidential vote preference, by race and ethnicity
Source: National
E...
Wide age divide, though narrower than for Obama’s elections
Presidential vote preference, by age
Source: National
Election...
College grads shift to Democratic Party, as less educated voters
move to the GOP
… even more pronounced among whites
% of registered voters who identify as…
Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 199...
25www.pewresearch.org
A historically wide educational gap in 2016 preferences
Presidential vote preference, by educational...
Partisan polarization
More Democrats take liberal positions,
More Republicans take conservative positions
Source: 2014 Political Polarization in...
Democrats and Republicans more ideologically
divided than in the past
Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-it...
Ideological polarization in the American public
It was 64% and 70%, respectively, in 1994!
Affective polarization also much stronger now
Source: Surveys conducted 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014 and 2015.
Negative stereotypes about the ‘other side’
Source: Surveys conducted Mar 2-28, 2016.
Consistent liberals & conservatives
often live in different media worlds
Source: 2014 Media Polarization
People want to live with others who share their
political views
Meanwhile, the next technology revolution is
underway
The internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet
more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill
Fo...
Thank you!
The New Age of Politics and Media
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The New Age of Politics and Media

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Lee Rainie, director of internet, science and technology research at Pew Research Center, gave this speech at Flagler College in St. Augustine, Florida on Feb. 16, 2017, about the new age of politics and media. He described what Donald Trump's campaign and the dawn of the Trump presidency have taught us about the historic shifts in politics and media that have occurred in the last generation.

Published in: News & Politics
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The New Age of Politics and Media

  1. 1. The New Age of Politics and Media Lee Rainie - @lrainie Director - Internet, Science and Technology Research February 16, 2017 Flagler College
  2. 2. Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation
  3. 3. 4 First revolution – Internet (90% use it) Broadband 1% 73% 2000 2005 2010 2016 Skews younger More upscale by income and education Tilts urban/suburban
  4. 4. 5 Second revolution – Mobile 29% 81% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 95% have cell phones 51% have tablet computers Smartphones Skews younger A bit smaller differences by socio-economic class Tilts urban/suburban
  5. 5. Third revolution – Social media 5 % 69%
  6. 6. 7 67 15 13 20 16 79 31 32 29 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Facebook Pinterest Instagram LinkedIn Twitter 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % % of internet users
  7. 7. Big change #1) It networked people
  8. 8. Networked Individualism The move to looser, far-flung networks
  9. 9. Personal networks are: More important – trust Differently composed – segmented, layered
  10. 10. Big change #2) It networked information
  11. 11. Pew Research danah boyd pervasive (real-time + all-time) persistent / visible portable replicable personal scalable participatory searchable linked and unlinked spreadable COLLAPSED CONTEXTS OF COMMUNICATION
  12. 12. Big change #3) It networked the public square
  13. 13. More niches More topics of discussion (and different “news” agendas”) More alliances More arguments More DIY work More disclosure More surveillance sousveillance coveillance
  14. 14. More people in decision- making spaces crowdsourcing / funding More filtering by algorithms More evidence (but not causation) of everything humans do: Love Altruism Brilliance Hate Selfishness Stupidity
  15. 15. Big change #4) It networked the political ecosystem
  16. 16. People are more personally empowered Easier to find like-minded allies, even in tiny niches Easier to raise money and mobilize Easier to leap barriers of all kinds Easier to mobilize (maybe even new people) Additive – use old methods PLUS new ones
  17. 17. Meanwhile, big changes occur in political culture
  18. 18. The political landscape of 2016  Long-term demographic divides in partisanship  Many – race, gender, age – long pre-dated this election  Some – particularly education (sometimes seen as a proxy for class) – emerged as a more potent force this cycle  Partisan polarization guaranteed Trump a solid floor  Deepening ideological divides by party in recent decades  Partisan polarization not confined to policy differences, increasingly tied to media use and it’s emotional (“affective polarization”)  Mood of the country in recent years increasingly inhospitable to “continuity” candidates, more open to a
  19. 19. The gender gap in partisan identification % of registered voters who identify as… Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016
  20. 20. Non-whites remain a solidly Democratic constituency Presidential vote preference, by race and ethnicity Source: National Election Pool exit polls
  21. 21. Wide age divide, though narrower than for Obama’s elections Presidential vote preference, by age Source: National Election Pool exit polls
  22. 22. College grads shift to Democratic Party, as less educated voters move to the GOP
  23. 23. … even more pronounced among whites % of registered voters who identify as… Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016
  24. 24. 25www.pewresearch.org A historically wide educational gap in 2016 preferences Presidential vote preference, by educational attainment Source: National Election Pool exit polls
  25. 25. Partisan polarization
  26. 26. More Democrats take liberal positions, More Republicans take conservative positions Source: 2014 Political Polarization in the American Public, 2015 Views of Government
  27. 27. Democrats and Republicans more ideologically divided than in the past Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values
  28. 28. Ideological polarization in the American public It was 64% and 70%, respectively, in 1994!
  29. 29. Affective polarization also much stronger now Source: Surveys conducted 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014 and 2015.
  30. 30. Negative stereotypes about the ‘other side’ Source: Surveys conducted Mar 2-28, 2016.
  31. 31. Consistent liberals & conservatives often live in different media worlds Source: 2014 Media Polarization
  32. 32. People want to live with others who share their political views
  33. 33. Meanwhile, the next technology revolution is underway
  34. 34. The internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill Fourth revolution – Internet of Things, Metaverse, Virtual Reality, Artificial Reality, Self-propelling stuff
  35. 35. Thank you!

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