The New Age of Politics and Media Lee Rainie - @lrainie Director - Internet, Science and Technology Research February 16, ...
Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation
4 First revolution – Internet (90% use it) Broadband 1% 73% 2000 2005 2010 2016 Skews younger More upscale by income and e...
5 Second revolution – Mobile 29% 81% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 95% have cell phones 51% have tablet computers Smartpho...
Third revolution – Social media 5 % 69%
7 67 15 13 20 16 79 31 32 29 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Facebook Pinterest Instagram LinkedIn Twitter 2012 2013 2...
Big change #1) It networked people
Networked Individualism The move to looser, far-flung networks
Personal networks are: More important – trust Differently composed – segmented, layered
Big change #2) It networked information
Pew Research danah boyd pervasive (real-time + all-time) persistent / visible portable replicable personal scalable partic...
Big change #3) It networked the public square
More niches More topics of discussion (and different “news” agendas”) More alliances More arguments More DIY work More dis...
More people in decision- making spaces crowdsourcing / funding More filtering by algorithms More evidence (but not causati...
Big change #4) It networked the political ecosystem
People are more personally empowered Easier to find like-minded allies, even in tiny niches Easier to raise money and mobi...
Meanwhile, big changes occur in political culture
The political landscape of 2016  Long-term demographic divides in partisanship  Many – race, gender, age – long pre-date...
The gender gap in partisan identification % of registered voters who identify as… Source: Annual Pew Research Center surve...
Non-whites remain a solidly Democratic constituency Presidential vote preference, by race and ethnicity Source: National E...
Wide age divide, though narrower than for Obama’s elections Presidential vote preference, by age Source: National Election...
College grads shift to Democratic Party, as less educated voters move to the GOP
… even more pronounced among whites % of registered voters who identify as… Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 199...
25www.pewresearch.org A historically wide educational gap in 2016 preferences Presidential vote preference, by educational...
Partisan polarization
More Democrats take liberal positions, More Republicans take conservative positions Source: 2014 Political Polarization in...
Democrats and Republicans more ideologically divided than in the past Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-it...
Ideological polarization in the American public It was 64% and 70%, respectively, in 1994!
Affective polarization also much stronger now Source: Surveys conducted 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014 and 2015.
Negative stereotypes about the ‘other side’ Source: Surveys conducted Mar 2-28, 2016.
Consistent liberals & conservatives often live in different media worlds Source: 2014 Media Polarization
People want to live with others who share their political views
Meanwhile, the next technology revolution is underway
The internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill Fo...
Thank you!
The New Age of Politics and Media
The New Age of Politics and Media
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The New Age of Politics and Media

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Lee Rainie, director of internet, science and technology research at Pew Research Center, gave this speech at Flagler College in St. Augustine, Florida on Feb. 16, 2017, about the new age of politics and media. He described what Donald Trump's campaign and the dawn of the Trump presidency have taught us about the historic shifts in politics and media that have occurred in the last generation.

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  • The New Age of Politics and Media: What the Donald Trump campaign and dawn of the Trump presidency have taught us about the historic shifts in politics and media that have occurred in th

    Can you expand on the above: In your talk, what specifically will you be addressing? What can attendees expect to learn?
     
    ------------------- Lee (or Mr. Rainie) will talk about the latest findings from the Pew Research Center about the state of politics and democratic institutions in the United States, as well as provide updates about the changing news media ecosystem enabled by the internet, mobile connectivity, and social media. He will describe how the campaign and early days of the Trump Administration have shown that major institutions like political parties and the news media have been challenged and changed by a fractured news environment, shifting trust in major institutions, and an increasingly polarized political landscape. He will also draw from his book, Networked: The new social operating system, in describing how unprecedented technology adoption has changed the way that people engage in social and political activities.
     
                    Attendees will learn about the latest Pew Research data about the state of American politics and media: How does the public think Trump is doing? What excites AND bothers people about the current political climate? What’s happening in the economy and in people’s jobs in the age of swift technological change and globalization? Where are people getting news and information about developments in Washington and around the world? They will learn about how the political and personal landscape is being changed by technology. And they will learn about some of the coming trends and technology and how they might affect politics, institutions, the way that people get, create, and share information.  
     
    Why is your topic particularly significant now?
     
    --------------------- Few societies in history have undergone the kind of change that we are now experiencing and the most recent campaign brought some of these trends into stark relief. People’s (and groups’) capacity to create and share information is unparalleled. The rapidity and breadth of change in science and technology has never occurred before. We have not ever seen the kinds of disruptions in basic institutions that we are witnessing now. Organizations that arose in the Industrial Era – big government bureaucracies, big corporations, big media companies, big labor unions – are all undergoing significant change.  Americans feel a mixture of excitement and apprehension about all this and the “Trump effect” adds to both those sensibilities.
     
    Maybe you will also find it helpful to note that my organization, the Pew Research Center, is a nonpartisan “fact tank” that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research, now including analysis of “big data.” The Center does not take policy positions and I am not permitted to be an advocate or partisan in any way.
     
  • Women supported Clinton over Trump by 54% to 42%. This is about the same as the Democratic advantage among women in 2012 (55% Obama vs. 44% Romney) and 2008 (56% Obama vs. 43% McCain). By 53% to 41%, more men supported Trump than Clinton. The advantage for Trump among men is larger than McCain or Romney
    The gender gap in presidential vote preference is among the widest in exit polls dating back to 1972. However, it is not dramatically higher than in some other recent elections, including the 2000 contest between Bush and Al Gore.
  • Women supported Clinton over Trump by 54% to 42%. This is about the same as the Democratic advantage among women in 2012 (55% Obama vs. 44% Romney) and 2008 (56% Obama vs. 43% McCain). By 53% to 41%, more men supported Trump than Clinton. The advantage for Trump among men is larger than McCain or Romney
    The gender gap in presidential vote preference is among the widest in exit polls dating back to 1972. However, it is not dramatically higher than in some other recent elections, including the 2000 contest between Bush and Al Gore.
  • Here’s your bumper sticker.

    For comparison,
    1994 – typical Republican more conservative than 70% of Democrats / now 94%
    1994 – typical Democrat more liberal than 64% of Republicans / now 92%

    • The New Age of Politics and Media

    1. 1. The New Age of Politics and Media Lee Rainie - @lrainie Director - Internet, Science and Technology Research February 16, 2017 Flagler College
    2. 2. Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation
    3. 3. 4 First revolution – Internet (90% use it) Broadband 1% 73% 2000 2005 2010 2016 Skews younger More upscale by income and education Tilts urban/suburban
    4. 4. 5 Second revolution – Mobile 29% 81% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 95% have cell phones 51% have tablet computers Smartphones Skews younger A bit smaller differences by socio-economic class Tilts urban/suburban
    5. 5. Third revolution – Social media 5 % 69%
    6. 6. 7 67 15 13 20 16 79 31 32 29 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Facebook Pinterest Instagram LinkedIn Twitter 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % % of internet users
    7. 7. Big change #1) It networked people
    8. 8. Networked Individualism The move to looser, far-flung networks
    9. 9. Personal networks are: More important – trust Differently composed – segmented, layered
    10. 10. Big change #2) It networked information
    11. 11. Pew Research danah boyd pervasive (real-time + all-time) persistent / visible portable replicable personal scalable participatory searchable linked and unlinked spreadable COLLAPSED CONTEXTS OF COMMUNICATION
    12. 12. Big change #3) It networked the public square
    13. 13. More niches More topics of discussion (and different “news” agendas”) More alliances More arguments More DIY work More disclosure More surveillance sousveillance coveillance
    14. 14. More people in decision- making spaces crowdsourcing / funding More filtering by algorithms More evidence (but not causation) of everything humans do: Love Altruism Brilliance Hate Selfishness Stupidity
    15. 15. Big change #4) It networked the political ecosystem
    16. 16. People are more personally empowered Easier to find like-minded allies, even in tiny niches Easier to raise money and mobilize Easier to leap barriers of all kinds Easier to mobilize (maybe even new people) Additive – use old methods PLUS new ones
    17. 17. Meanwhile, big changes occur in political culture
    18. 18. The political landscape of 2016  Long-term demographic divides in partisanship  Many – race, gender, age – long pre-dated this election  Some – particularly education (sometimes seen as a proxy for class) – emerged as a more potent force this cycle  Partisan polarization guaranteed Trump a solid floor  Deepening ideological divides by party in recent decades  Partisan polarization not confined to policy differences, increasingly tied to media use and it’s emotional (“affective polarization”)  Mood of the country in recent years increasingly inhospitable to “continuity” candidates, more open to a
    19. 19. The gender gap in partisan identification % of registered voters who identify as… Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016
    20. 20. Non-whites remain a solidly Democratic constituency Presidential vote preference, by race and ethnicity Source: National Election Pool exit polls
    21. 21. Wide age divide, though narrower than for Obama’s elections Presidential vote preference, by age Source: National Election Pool exit polls
    22. 22. College grads shift to Democratic Party, as less educated voters move to the GOP
    23. 23. … even more pronounced among whites % of registered voters who identify as… Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016
    24. 24. 25www.pewresearch.org A historically wide educational gap in 2016 preferences Presidential vote preference, by educational attainment Source: National Election Pool exit polls
    25. 25. Partisan polarization
    26. 26. More Democrats take liberal positions, More Republicans take conservative positions Source: 2014 Political Polarization in the American Public, 2015 Views of Government
    27. 27. Democrats and Republicans more ideologically divided than in the past Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values
    28. 28. Ideological polarization in the American public It was 64% and 70%, respectively, in 1994!
    29. 29. Affective polarization also much stronger now Source: Surveys conducted 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014 and 2015.
    30. 30. Negative stereotypes about the ‘other side’ Source: Surveys conducted Mar 2-28, 2016.
    31. 31. Consistent liberals & conservatives often live in different media worlds Source: 2014 Media Polarization
    32. 32. People want to live with others who share their political views
    33. 33. Meanwhile, the next technology revolution is underway
    34. 34. The internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill Fourth revolution – Internet of Things, Metaverse, Virtual Reality, Artificial Reality, Self-propelling stuff
    35. 35. Thank you!

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