Climate change valgreen

1
Climate Change: Planning and Knowing to be Prepared
(as far as we can...)
Sérgio Bruno Costa
(sergio.costa@simbiente.com)
Refóios do Lima (Portugal) | 11th October 2017

Topics
• Living in a Complex World
• Universal Laws of Risk Management
• Climate Change Theories
• Climate Change Effects (in Images)
• Climate Change Coping Approaches in Portugal
• Final Notes
2

Modern fashion?
OR Ancestral custom?
COMPLEXITY
Micro

Cruelty
OR Entertainment?
COMPLEXITY
Micro

Imperfection
OR Perfection?
COMPLEXITY
Micro

Noise
OR Music?
COMPLEXITY
Micro

Water Pollution
COMPLEXITY
Macro

Poverty and Hunger
COMPLEXITY
Macro

Violence and Armed Conflicts
COMPLEXITY
Macro

Climate Change
COMPLEXITY
Macro

“It is not the
strongest of the
species that
survives but the
most adaptable”
Adaptation
Capability
DARWIN

Adaptation
Capability
The survival of the
socioeconomic
systems depends on
their capability of
adaptation to
environmental risks
and changes

Universal Laws of Risk
Management
18

“If anything can go wrong, it will.“
Murphy’s Law

“If anything just cannot go wrong, it will anyway.“
Cheshire’s Corollary

“At the most inopportune time.“
MacGillicuddy's Corollary

“If there is a possibility of several things going wrong, the one
that will cause the most damage will be the one to go wrong.“
Miller's Extension

“Any thing that can go wrong, HAS already gone wrong!
You just haven't been notified yet.“
Murphy's Law Current Revision

“Remember the “boomerang" effect:
whatever you do will always come back.“
Leesa’s Law

So...
How to deal with the uncertainty of challenges
that surpasses our scale of action?

My guess...
Acting at scales in which we are able to
implement, measure and manage concrete actions

“Necessity is the
mother of invention”
Plato

Climate Change Theories
31
Climate Change is Anti-Russia Propaganda
Russia is a big energy exporter, providing Europe with about 30
percent of its natural gas and oil. But according to Infowars, Putin
and his advisers see climate change as a hoax that targets Russia’s
energy sector. If Europeans need less gas and oil, and there are
more restrictions on emissions, Russia’s energy industry could take
a hit. (well, just like every other country’s energy sector)
• Dumb Theories

32
Climate Change is Anti-Russia Propaganda
Russia is a big energy exporter, providing Europe with about 30
percent of its natural gas and oil. But according to Infowars, Putin
and his advisers see climate change as a hoax that targets Russia’s
energy sector. If Europeans need less gas and oil, and there are
more restrictions on emissions, Russia’s energy industry could take
a hit. (well, just like every other country’s energy sector)
• Dumb Theories

• Scientifically Plausible Theories
#1 Anthropogenic
Global Warming
Human emissions of
greenhouse gases, principally
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane,
and nitrous oxide, are causing a
catastrophic rise in global
temperatures, as a consequence
of a “greenhouse effect”.

• Scientifically Plausible Theories
#1 Anthropogenic
Global Warming
Human emissions of
greenhouse gases, principally
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane,
and nitrous oxide, are causing a
catastrophic rise in global
temperatures, as a consequence
of a “greenhouse effect”.
#5 Ocean currents
Global temperature variations
over the past century-and-a-
half and particularly the past 30
years were due to the slow-
down of the ocean’s
Thermohaline Circulation
(THC).
#3 Cloud formation and
albedo
changes in the formation and
albedo of clouds create
negative feedbacks that cancel
out all or nearly all of the
warming effect of higher levels
of CO2.
#7 Solar variability
Changes in the brightness of
the sun cause changes in cloud
formation, ocean currents, and
wind that cause climate to
change.
#2 Bio-thermostat
Rising temperatures and levels
of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the
atmosphere trigger biological
and chemical responses that
have a cooling effect, like a
natural thermostat.
#4 Human forcings
besides greenhouse gases
Mankind’s greatest influence on
climate is not its greenhouse
gas emissions, but its
transformation of Earth’s
surface by clearing forests,
irrigating deserts, and building
cities.
#6 Planetary motion
Natural gravitational and
magnetic oscillations of the
solar system induced by the
planet’s movement through
space drive climate change.

However...
whatever is the cause, the effects are undeniable
(and, at some extend, unavoidable...)

Climate Change Effects (in Images)
36

McCarty Glacier melt
Alaska (USA)
>> the glacier’s terminus has
retreated about 15 km to the north
<< 30/07/1909
Source: NASA (https://climate.nasa.gov) 37

McCarty Glacier melt
Alaska (USA)
>> the glacier’s terminus has
retreated about 15 km to the north
<< 11/08/2004

Flood in Hamburg
Iowa (USA)
>> many homes evacuated
>> levees built for protection from future flooding events.
<< 24/09/2010
Source: NASA (https://climate.nasa.gov)
39

Flood in Hamburg
Iowa (USA)
>> many homes evacuated
>> levees built for protection from future flooding events.
<< 02/08/2011
Source: NASA (https://climate.nasa.gov)
40

Flood in Licungo
River
(Mozambique)
<< 01/02/2014

Flood in Licungo
River
(Mozambique)
>> 86 dead
>> 11 000 homes destroyed
>> tens of thousands displaced
<< 17/01/2015

Great Salt Lake
shrinkage
(Utah, USA)
<< 08/1985

Great Salt Lake
shrinkage
(Utah, USA)
>> major hydromorphological changes
>> significant shortage of water availability
<< 09/2010

Landslide in Kurbu-
Tash
(Kyrgyzstan)
<< 25/04/2017

Landslide in Kurbu-
Tash
(Kyrgyzstan)
>> dozen of homes destroyed
<< 11/05/2017

Climate Change Coping
Approaches in Portugal
47

STRATEGY
COMPETITIVENESS
INNOVATION
EFFECTIVENESS
TRAINING
AWARENESS

APPLIED
KNOWLEDGE
IS A
COMPETITIVENESS
DRIVER

50
scope
mitigation adaptation monitoring
scale
national regional local
PORTUGUESE NATIONAL INVENTORY REPORT
ON GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS AND SINKS
• Portugal prepares each year its National Inventory of Greenhouse
Gases Emissions and Sinks (NIR), in order to comply with the
international commitments under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the European Union.
• It follows international standards and methodologies, specially the
UNEP/WMO’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
references and guidelines.
GHG emissions in Portugal by sector (2015)

51
scope
scale
PORTUGUESE NATIONAL INVENTORY REPORT
ON GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS AND SINKS
• Additionally, some regional reporting initiatives were undertaken, in
order to detail and adapt the standards and methodologies to
regional and local specificities.

52
scope
scale
PORTUGUESE NATIONAL PROGRAMME FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE (PNAC 2020/2030)
• Establishes the national guidelines for political and sectorial
measures for the reduction of GHG emissions.
• Establishes the national sectorial targets and commitments
regarding GHG emissions (compared to 2005):
Sector 2020 2030
Services - 65% -69%
Residential -14% -15%
Transport -14% -16%
Agriculture -8% -11%
Waste (including wastewater) -14% -26%

53
scope
scale
PORTUGUESE NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION (ENAAC 2020)
• Establishes the vision of a “country well adapted to the effects of
climate change, through the continuous implementation of solutions
based on technical and scientific knowledge and good practices”.
• Establishes three main goals:
§ Increase the knowledge on climate change;
§ Implement adaptation measures;
§ Promote the adaptation concerns on sectorial policies.
Research and Innovation
Fund and Implement the Adaptation
International Cooperation
Communication and Dissemination
Integrate the Adaptation on Land Management
Integrate the Adaptation on Water Management
thematic areas sectorial areas
energyagriculture
biodiversity
economy
people and
goods
safety
forests
human
health
transports
and
communica-
tions
sea and
coastal
areas

54
scope
scale
Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy
• The Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy brings
together local and regional authorities voluntarily committing
to implementing the EU’s climate and energy objectives on their
territory.

55
scope
scale
territory.

56
scope
scale
territory.
• 99 Portuguese municipalities are already signatories

57
scope
scale
ClimAdaPT.Local – Municipal Strategies for Climate
Change Adaptation
• The project’s specific goals were:
§ To develop 26 Municipal Strategies for Climate Change
Adaptation.
§ To train 52 municipal technical staff persons in Climate Change
Adaptation.
§ To create a platform for Municipal Climate Change Adaptation.
§ To create a Municipal Network for Climate Change Adaptation.

58
scope
scale
ClimAdaPT.Local – Municipal Strategies for Climate
Change Adaptation
• The 26 beneficiary municipalities were:

59
scope
scale
Intermunicipal Plans for Climate Change Adaptation
(IPCCA)
• These plans elaboration is currently ongoing, and aims to
implement the ClimaAdaPT.Local methodologies and approaches
into a intermunicipal scale, covering the whole national territory:
Autonomous Region of Azores
Autonomous Region of Madeira

60
scope
scale
Intermunicipal Plans for Climate Change Adaptation
(IPCCA)
• These plans elaboration is currently ongoing, and aims to
implement the ClimaAdaPT.Local methodologies and approaches
into a intermunicipal scale, covering the whole national territory:

61
scope
scale
Research & Development Projects
• There are interesting R&D results that can be part of cost-effective
solutions for coping climate change.
Coastal
Management
River Basins
Management
Wastewater
Treatment Plants
Management

62
scope
scale
Coastal Management
Coastal
Management

63
scope
scale
Coastal Management
• What we have learned:
§ For coastal monitoring it is important to observe, understand,
increase knowledge and forecast capabilities.
§ Continuous data series acquisition are difficult due to the
required financial and logistical efforts.
• What we need:
§ Easy to install and low cost systems.
§ Capability to obtain continuous data.
§ Tools to simplify behavior observations before, during and
after extreme events.
§ Increase the current knowledge about the coastal
morphodynamics, hydrodynamics and hydromorphology.

64
scope
scale
Coastal Management
• What we are finding about Video-Monitoring:
§ Low cost method.
§ Feasible and promising.
§ Continuous data series acquisition.
§ Wide applicability in the coastal zone morphodynamics
behavior and hydrodynamic characterization.
§ Capability to be used on coastal alert systems.

65
scope
scale
Coastal Management
MOZCO’s Project Results (examples)
• Instantaneous images and video (snapshot).
• Time-exposure images (timex) – locate submerged sandbars.
• Variance image – locate the dynamic areas (white).
Partners:

66
scope
scale
Coastal Management
MOZCO’s Project Results (examples)
• Instantaneous images and video (snapshot).
• Time-exposure images (timex) – locate submerged sandbars.
• Variance image – locate the dynamic areas (white).
• Timestack image – Swash zone dynamics;
• Shoreline detection.
Partners:

67
scope
scale
Coastal Management
Coastal Monitoring
Identification of areas with high vulnerability
and risk
Development of monitoring technologies
Climate Changes Coping –
“local” solutions for “global”
challenges
Assessment of implications on coastal
settlements and ecosystems
Identification of priorities
Development of alerts systems
Identification of key solutions for delay or / and
minimize the impacts

68
scope
scale
River Basins
Management
River Basin Management >> Floods and Droughts

69
scope
scale
Decision Support
• Growing need for
supporting
environmental
planning choices
with prediction
models
• Direct link
between physical
phenomena and
land planning
constraints
Management and
Governance
• Impact prediction
software
simulation models
on proposed land
use scenarios
• Strategies for land
management
Climate Changes
Coping
• Climate changing
scenarios
rendering
predictions for
both flood and
drought events

70
scope
scale
• Floods > Case Study: Valadares River Basin:
§ Valadares River basin is an ungauged small perennial
watershed located at Vila Nova de Gaia (northern Portugal)
municipal suburban tissue. This river basin remained a rural
area until recent years, its rapid urbanization as brought
increasingly frequent flash flood events and subsequent
damages.

71
scope
scale
• Floods > Case Study: Valadares River Basin:
§ Two lumped basin models were created. The results obtained
were compared in terms of storm event prediction and
resulting floodplain areas. In order to evaluate the urban
impact on the water flow pattern, those results were compared
to the results of a hypothetical model, build with data collected
from 1964 aerial photography. This planning exercise revealed
the evolution of Valadares basin not only in its hydrologic and
hydraulic behaviour, but also in its socio-economic dimension
and highlighted the strong interactions between those factors.

72
scope
scale
• Droughts > Case Study: The Azores
§ The use of GIS, statistics and a proper methodological
approach can render similar results when addressing drought
issues. In fact, the integrated use of these tools as reverted
valid results when establishing the current status, using the
Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for the Azores archipelago.
These results where integrated in its recent river basin
management plan under the Water Framework Directive.
CIELO
A thermodynamic climatic
model for the Azores
Islands

73
scope
scale
Floods and droughts
modelling
Climatic, hydrologic and hydraulic
modelling
Zoning risk areas
Impact prediction and land use
scenarios assessment
Strategies for land management
Land uses assessment
challenges

74
scope
scale
Wastewater
Treatment Plants
Management
Wastewater Treatment Plants’ Climatic Performance

75
scope
scale
• What we know:
§ Energy-intensive processes at wastewater treatment plants
(WWTP) to comply with stringent water quality standards.
§ WWTP are a potential source of greenhouse gases (GHG):
CO2, CH4 and N2O
• ww4Environment Project Goals:
§ Improve climatic performance (carbon footprint) of WWTP.
§ Compare approaches to assess GHG emissions arising from on-
site activities of WWTPs.
§ Develop a methodological approach to assess the feasibility
and impact of potential measures to minimise WWTP carbon
footprint.
Partners

76
scope
scale
• Case Study: Beirolas Wastewater Treatment Plant
Partners

77
scope
scale
• ww4Environment Project Findings:
§ Adequate to address climate change at local/facility-level by
enabling the quantification of CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions
arising from on-site activities and by providing an assessment
matrix of potential mitigation options and its impacts.
§ Suitable to improve the environmental performance of WWTP
and decrease its impact on receiving water bodies by shifting
operational conditions (e.g. optimize the anaerobic digestion
process, thus increasing CH4 production, enhancing the
electricity production from renewable sources and decreasing
the requirements for purchased electricity).
Partners

challenges
WWTPs’ Climatic
Performance
System boundary selection
Identification of emission sources/sinks
Calculation and model validation
Assessment of mitigation opportunities
Data gathering
78
scope
scale

“If you cannot do great things, do small things in a great way.“
Napoleon Hill

“Whatever you do will be insignificant,
but it is very important that you do it.“
Mahatma Gandhi

“Great things are done by a series of
small things brought together.“
Vincent Van Gogh

“Think global, act local.“
Rene Dubos

85
Thank you!
Sérgio Bruno Costa
(sergio.costa@simbiente.com)
Refóios do Lima (Portugal) | 11th October 2017

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