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The Future of the Internet

Keynote, The Grand Challenge 2015, University of Exeter, June 2015

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The Future of the Internet

  1. 1. The Future of the Internet 1 Payam Barnaghi Institute for Communication Systems (ICS) Electronic Engineering Department University of Surrey Guildford, United Kingdom The Grand Challenge (Tracking 21st Century challenges together) University of Exeter, June 2015
  2. 2. 2 IBM Mainframe 360, source Wikipedia
  3. 3. Apollo 11 Command Module (1965) had 64 kilobytes of memory operated at 0.043MHz. An iPhone 5s has a CPU running at speeds of up to 1.3GHz and has 512MB to 1GB of memory Cray-1 (1975) produced 80 million Floating point operations per second (FLOPS) 10 years later, Cray-2 produced 1.9G FLOPS An iPhone 5s produces 76.8 GFLOPS – nearly a thousand times more Cray-2 used 200-kilowatt power Source: Nick T.,, 2014
  4. 4. Computing Power 4 −Smaller size −More Powerful −More memory and more storage −"Moore's law" over the history of computing, the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years.
  5. 5. Smaller in size but larger in scale 5
  6. 6. The Internet:A brief history 6 − 1961: Leonard Kleinrock at MIT published the first paper on packet switching theory in July 1961. − 1962: J.C.R. Licklider of MIT discussed his "Galactic Network" concept - a globally interconnected set of computers through which everyone could quickly access data and programs from any site. − 1968: an RFQ was released by DARPA for the development of one of the key components, the packet switches called Interface Message Processors (IMP's). − The RFQ was won in December 1968 by a group headed by Frank Heart at Bolt Beranek and Newman (BBN). Source: Internet Society
  7. 7. The Internet:A brief history 7 − 1970: the Network Working Group (NWG) working under S. Crocker finished the initial ARPANET Host-to-Host protocol, called the Network Control Protocol (NCP). − 1972: Bob Kahn organized a large, very successful demonstration of the ARPANET at the International Computer Communication Conference (ICCC). − This was the first public demonstration of this new network technology to the public. − 1972: the first "hot" application, electronic mail, was introduced. Source: Internet Society
  8. 8. The old Internet timeline 8Source: Internet Society
  9. 9. TCP/IP in the early days of the Internet 9 − The original Cerf/Kahn paper on the Internet described one protocol, called TCP, which provided all the transport and forwarding services in the Internet. − A 32 bit IP address was used of which the first 8 bits signified the network and the remaining 24 bits designated the host on that network. − The assumption was that 256 networks would be sufficient for the foreseeable future… − Obviously this was before LANs (Ethernet was under development at Xerox PARC at that time)
  10. 10. Expansion beyond estimation 10 In November 1979, a proposal was submitted to NSF to fund a consortium of eleven universities at an estimated cost of $3 million over five years. This is viewed as too costly by the NSF. Source: Computer History museum 4 node Arpanet
  11. 11. Predicting the future (in 1999)! 11 − 1999:“The number of hosts (locatable through DNS) will exceed 100 M, very soon!” − A few years later in 2013, 80 “things” per second were connecting to the internet.  In 2014 that number was around 100 per second, and by 2020, more than 250 things will connect each second. (source Cisco) − It is estimated that by 2020 there will be more than 50 billion internet connected devices. (source Cisco)
  12. 12. Submarine cables 12 Image source: mail online
  13. 13. Fiber optic cables around the world A single fibre can transmit as much as 100 billion bits per second (100 Gbps, about ten thousand times faster than a typical home broadband connection) - A cable can contain hundreds of fibres, a single cable can have enough capacity for the communications of millions of users. Source: Source:
  14. 14. Countries at risk of getting disconnected from the internet Source:
  15. 15. Connectivity and information exchange was (and is ) one of the main motivations behind the Internet; but Content and Services are now the key elements; and all started growing rapidly by the introduction of the World Wide Web. 16
  16. 16. The World Wide Web 17 Tim Berners-Lee
  17. 17. Early days of the Web 18
  18. 18. Search on the Internet/Web in the early days 19
  19. 19. And there came Google! 20 Google says that the web has now 30 trillion unique individual pages;
  20. 20. 21
  21. 21. Source: Intel, 2012
  22. 22. Source:
  23. 23. Source:
  24. 24. 25 AnyPlace AnyTime AnyThing Data Volume Security, Reliability, Trust and Privacy Societal Impacts, Economic Values and Viability Services and Applications Networking and Communication
  25. 25. 26 Sensor devices are becoming widely available - Programmable devices - Off-the-shelf gadgets/tools
  26. 26. 27 More “Things” are being connected Home/daily-life devices Business and Public infrastructure Health-care …
  27. 27. 28 People Connecting to Things Motion sensor Motion sensor Motion sensor ECG sensor Internet
  28. 28. 29 Things Connecting to Things - Complex and heterogeneous resources and networks
  29. 29. 30
  30. 30. Connected world 31Image courtesy: Wilgengebroed DataData SemanticsSemantics Social networks Social networks M2M Communic ations M2M Communic ations
  31. 31. 32 Internet of Things (IoT) − Extending the current Internet and providing connection, communication, and inter-networking between devices and physical objects, or "Things," is a growing trend that is often referred to as the Internet ofThings. − “The technologies and solutions that enable integration of real world data and services into the current information networking technologies are often described under the umbrella term of the Internet of Things (IoT)”
  32. 32. Mobile Technologies 33 Image courtesy: Economist
  33. 33. 1G AMPS, NMT, TACS 2G GSM. GPRS, TDMA IS-136, CDMA IS-95, PDC 3G UMTS, CDMA2000, 4G 5G LTE, LTE-A People Things Voice Text Data 5G technologies and standards Connection + Control M2M/IoT Change in the communication technologies
  34. 34. Mobile Services and Applications 35 Image courtesy: Economist
  35. 35. 36 Things, Devices, Data, and lots of it image courtesy: Smarter Data - I.03_C by Gwen Vanhee
  36. 36. “delivering only data is not often sufficient, the systems should be able to provide machine- interpretable and/or human-understandable insights (actionable-information)” Sink node Gateway Core network e.g. Internet What is the temperature at home?Freezing!
  37. 37. 38
  38. 38. Internet of Things: The story so far RFID based solutions Wireless Sensor and Actuator networks , solutions for communication technologies, energy efficiency, routing, … Smart Devices/ Web-enabled Apps/Services, initial products, vertical applications, early concepts and demos, … Motion sensor Motion sensor ECG sensor Physical-Cyber-Social Systems, Linked-data, semantics, M2M, More products, more heterogeneity, solutions for control and monitoring, … Future: Cloud, Big (IoT) Data Analytics, Interoperability, Enhanced Cellular/Wireless Com. for IoT, Real-world operational use-cases and Industry and B2B services/applications, more Standards…
  39. 39. The scale 40 Things Data Devices 2.5 quintillion bytes per day Billions and Billions of them… Estimated 50 Billion by 2020
  40. 40. The IoT is a dynamic, online and rapidly changing world 41 isPartOf Publishing content/data on the Web Data in the IoT Image sources: ABC Australia and
  41. 41. What type of problems we expect to solve?
  42. 42. 43Source LAT Times, Future cities: A view from 1998
  43. 43. 44 Source:[default]/0/ Source: wikipedia Back to the Future: 2013
  44. 44. 45
  45. 45. Applications and potentials − Analysis of thousands of traffic, pollution, weather, congestion, public transport, waste and event sensory data to provide better transport and city management. − Converting smart meter readings to information that can help prediction and balance of power consumption in a city. − Monitoring elderly homes, personal and public healthcare applications. − Event and incident analysis and prediction using (near) real-time data collected by citizen and device sensors. − Turning social media data (e.g.Tweets) related to city issues into event and sentiment analysis. − Any many more… 46
  46. 46. The physical world data − Multi-modal and heterogeneous − Noisy and incomplete − Time and location dependent − Dynamic and varies in quality − Crowed sourced data can be unreliable − Requires (near-) real-time analysis − Privacy and security are important issues − Data can be biased- we need to know our data! − Data alone may not give a clear picture -we need contextual information, background knowledge, multi-source information and obviously better data analytics solutions… 47
  47. 47. Some examples 48
  48. 48. Live data visualisation 49P. Source: Lasse Steenbock Vestergaard, CityPulse Project
  49. 49. Live event visualisation 50P. Source: Lasse Steenbock Vestergaard, CityPulse Project
  50. 50. Learning form data 51 F. Ganz, P. Barnaghi, F. Carrez, "Information Abstraction for Heterogeneous Real World Internet Data", IEEE Sensors Journal, 2013.
  51. 51. Ontology learning from real world data 52
  52. 52. Extraction of events and semantics from social media 53 City Infrastructure Tweets from a city P. Anantharam, P. Barnaghi, K. Thirunarayan, A. Sheth, "Extracting city events from social streams,“, 2014.
  53. 53. The Future of the Internet 54 In next 5 years
  54. 54. The rise of sharing economy 55Source: the Economist
  55. 55. More broadband in remote areas 56
  56. 56. More people getting connected 57Source: the Economist
  57. 57. More connected wearable devcies 58
  58. 58. The rise of village notebook/internet kiosks 59Source: wikipedia, green diary
  59. 59. More privacy/control issues 60 Source: wikipedia, the economist
  60. 60. Applications and Services 61
  61. 61. Data-centric networking 62
  62. 62. Smart Grid 63 Source: Economist,
  63. 63. The Future of the Internet 64 In next 25 years
  64. 64. Mind will be the machine 65 Pushing the boundaries between human and the machine!
  65. 65. The borders blend 66Source: IEEE Internet Computing
  66. 66. Information will find you, instead of you finding the information 67
  67. 67. Boundary between human, technology and devices 68
  68. 68. Accumulated and connected knowledge? 69 Image courtesy: IEEE Spectrum
  69. 69. Global Challenges − Net neutrality − Openness and freedom of access − Privacy and control on personal data − Cyber security and trust − Dependability and resilience − Who owns what, and who controls what − Digital divide − Social impacts 70
  70. 70. Technical challenges − (Automated) data to actionable-information process − Finding and linking complimentary and related information − Energy resources and bandwidth − Quality of Service − (near-) real-time access to information for everything/everywhere − Autonomous machine-to-machine interactions − Fast speed networking − Security, privacy, trust for applications and servcies 71
  71. 71. Let’s hope −The Internet of the Future will be −Open and accessible for everyone, everywhere, available at anytime, −People will have control on their data −Data will be used for helping people −Smart applications will contribute to a better life and to a better use of of our resources in the world! 72
  72. 72. Thank you. @pbarnaghi