Internet 2020: The Future Connection

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Tom Leighton's presentation at MassTLC's 2010 Annual Meeting: Flipping the Switch from Survival to Growth

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Internet 2020: The Future Connection

  1. 1. INTERNET 2020: The Future Connection<br />Tom Leighton<br />Chief Scientist & Co-Founder<br />
  2. 2. … and in 2020<br />State of the Internet Today<br />2020 (est.)<br />2010<br />Internet Users:<br /># of Unique IP addresses:<br />Average Connection Speed:<br />% connections > 5 Mbps:<br />E-Commerce Spend:<br />Online Advertising Spend:<br />4 billion4<br />5 billion2<br />10 Mbps2<br />50%2<br />$2.1 trillion3<br />$146 billion3<br />1.7 billion1<br />465 million2<br />1.7 Mbps2<br />21%2<br />$509 billion3<br />$62 billion3<br />1 Internet World Stats 2 Akamai 3eMarketer4 Pew Internet <br />
  3. 3. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />… and in 2020<br />State of the Internet Today<br />Premium HD <br />Video <br />Delivery <br />Ads<br />Applications<br />Devices<br />Long Tail SD<br />Akamai Confidential<br />© 2010 Akamai<br />POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />
  4. 4. Olympic Games SYNDICATED through EU<br />Live webcast STEALSbroadcast share<br />24 Hours of music BROADCAST globally<br />Webcast EQUALScable-size audience<br />Flash crowd DoS ofonline fashion show<br />TV TRANSFERS audienceto Internet<br />Video on the Internet<br />1.1 Tbps<br />2002<br />2004<br />2007<br />2008<br />1999<br />2009<br />444 Gbps<br />125 Gbps<br />21.0 Gbps<br />15.9 Gbps<br /><1 Gbps<br />
  5. 5. Video on the Internet<br />1.1 Tbps<br />Premium HD Video <br />over IP into the home<br />2008<br />2002<br />2004<br />2009<br />1999<br />2007<br />2020<br />2010<br />
  6. 6. The Explosion of Media over IP <br />Today<br /><ul><li>700 million video users
  7. 7. 10 mins of video daily
  8. 8. 500 Kbps</li></ul> 2.4 Tbps<br />Future<br /> 2.1 billion video users<br /> 2 hrs of video daily<br /> 7.5 Mbps for hi-def content<br /> 1,296 Tbps<br />x3=<br />HD is the key<br />x12=<br />x15=<br />x540=<br />
  9. 9. Catalyst for Video over IP<br />Today, the Akamai HD Network provides a state-of-the-art TV experience.<br />HD Quality<br />Multiple angles<br />Instant Replay<br />Adaptive Bitrate<br />
  10. 10. Improving Last Mile Connectivity<br />6<br />5<br />4<br />3<br />2<br />1<br />0<br />4.4 Mbps<br />4 Mbps<br />3.6 Mbps<br />MB/Sec.<br />548 Kbps<br />249 Kbps<br />181 Kbps<br />2004<br />2004<br />2004<br />2009<br />2009<br />2009<br />EUROPE<br />APAC<br />US<br />(2004: ITU Internet Reports, "The Portable Internet")<br />(2009: Akamai Technologies)<br />
  11. 11. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />6X<br />6X<br />Internet Infrastructure<br />Bottleneck<br />Economics<br />Growth<br />Web Content<br />$<br />$<br />$<br />$<br />$<br />$<br />First Mile<br />20X<br />20X<br />Tier 1 ISPs<br />MiddleMile<br />Local ISPs<br />$<br />$<br />$<br />$<br />$<br />$<br />50X<br />50X<br />Last Mile<br />Web Users<br />
  12. 12. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />… and in 2020<br />State of the Internet Today<br />Premium HD <br />Video <br />Delivery <br />Ads<br />Applications<br />Devices<br />Long Tail SD<br />Centralized<br />Distributed<br />Akamai Confidential<br />© 2010 Akamai<br />POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />
  13. 13. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />Problem 1 Centralizeddata centers are on the wrong side of the bottleneck<br />Data Centers<br />(10s)<br />Local ISPs<br />(1,000s)<br />Bottleneck<br />Users<br />The Internet Wasn’t Built for Video<br />Tier 1IPS’s<br />Tier 1IPS’s<br />Tier 1IPS’s<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge IPSs<br />August 18-20, 2008<br />Akamai 2008 Global Customer Conferece<br />
  14. 14. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />Problem 2 Centralized data centers are far from end users<br /> Local ISPs<br /> (1,000s)<br />Data Centers<br />(10s)<br />Users<br />The Internet Wasn’t Built for Video<br />Tier 1IPS’s<br />Tier 1IPS’s<br />Tier 1IPS’s<br />CDN<br />CDN<br />CDN<br />500-5,000 miles<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge IPSs<br />August 18-20, 2008<br />Akamai 2008 Global Customer Conferece<br />
  15. 15. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />Problem 2 Centralized data centers are far from end users<br />Solution Akamai servers are close to end users<br /> Local ISPs<br /> (1,000s)<br />Data Centers<br />(10s)<br />Akamai Servers<br />10-100 miles<br />Users<br />The Internet Wasn’t Built for Video<br />Akamai’s Distributed Approach to Content Delivery<br />Tier 1IPS’s<br />Tier 1IPS’s<br />Tier 1IPS’s<br />CDN<br />CDN<br />CDN<br />500-5,000 miles<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge ISPs<br />Edge IPSs<br />August 18-20, 2008<br />Akamai 2008 Global Customer Conferece<br />
  16. 16. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />Download Time<br />Packet Loss<br />Network Latency<br />Distance from Server to User<br />Throughput<br />Local 10-100 mi.<br />0.6%<br />1.6 ms<br />12.2 min.<br />44 Mbps<br />Akamai<br />Regional 500-1000 mi.<br />0.7%<br />16 ms<br /> 2.2 hrs<br />4 Mbps<br />Centralized Data Center Approach<br />Cross Continent <3,000 mi.<br />1.0%<br />48 ms<br /> 8.16 hrs<br />1 Mbps<br />Different Continent <6,000 mi.<br />1.4%<br />96 ms<br /> 20 hrs<br />0.4 Mbps<br />Performance Matters!<br />Latency governs throughput, and thus the time to download large files (e.g., 4 GB DVDs)<br />Source: Internal Akamai testing, empirical network analysis<br />
  17. 17. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />… and in 2020<br />State of the Internet Today<br />Premium HD <br />Video <br />Delivery <br />Ads<br />Applications<br />Devices<br />Long Tail SD<br />Centralized<br />Distributed<br />Behavioral<br />Contextual<br />Akamai Confidential<br />© 2010 Akamai<br />POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />
  18. 18. advertisement<br />Ads Today: Contextual<br />
  19. 19. advertisement<br />Home Buyers<br />Ads Future: Behavioral<br />
  20. 20. advertisement<br />Motorcycle Enthusiasts<br />Ads Future: Behavioral<br />
  21. 21. advertisement<br />Family Oriented<br />Ads Future: Behavioral: Re-marketing<br />
  22. 22. Akamai 2008 Global Customer Conferece<br />Personalizing Video<br />Home Buyers<br />Motorcycle Enthusiasts<br />
  23. 23. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />… and in 2020<br />State of the Internet Today<br />Premium HD <br />Video <br />Delivery <br />Ads<br />Applications<br />Devices<br />Long Tail SD<br />Centralized<br />Distributed<br />Behavioral<br />Contextual<br />Client<br />Cloud<br />Akamai Confidential<br />© 2010 Akamai<br />POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />
  24. 24. Cloud Computing<br />Software as a Service<br />Virtualization<br />Optimization<br />Edge Applications<br />Application Platform as a Service<br />EdgeComputing<br />Infrastructure as a Service<br />Content Storage<br />
  25. 25. Verizon<br />NAP<br />PaaS<br />SaaS<br />IaaS<br />L3<br />NAP<br />Cogent<br />Barriers to Cloud Adoption<br />Cloud servers reside in centralized data centers, farther away from the user<br />Consequences: Performance degradation and increased vulnerability<br />End User<br />
  26. 26. Culprit in the Cloud: The Middle Mile<br />Typical number of round trips = 31<br />Globally Distributed<br />Users (Sydney)<br />Data Center (Atlanta)<br />The Cloud<br />Transfer Time7.75 Seconds<br />Transfer Time0.25 Seconds<br />Transfer Time0.20 Seconds<br />First Mile<br />Middle Mile<br />Last Mile<br />
  27. 27. Optimize the Cloud: Fixing the Middle Mile with a Distributed Architecture<br />Globally Distributed<br />Users (Sydney)<br />Data Center (Atlanta)<br />The Cloud<br />Total response time reducedfrom 8.20 sec to1.45 sec<br />Round trips reduced from 31 to 5<br />Transfer Time1.0 Seconds<br />Transfer Time0.25 Seconds<br />Transfer Time0.20 Seconds<br />First Mile<br />Middle Mile<br />Last Mile<br />
  28. 28. Putting Cloud Optimization to Work<br />Virtual desktop performance (between New York and Colorado)<br />With Akamai IPA<br />Without Akamai<br />200<br />180<br />160<br />140<br />120<br />100<br />80<br />60<br />40<br />20<br />0<br />180<br />Seconds<br />82<br />69<br />46<br />34<br />30<br />Presentation Browsing<br />File Transfer<br />Viewing Pictures<br />
  29. 29. Putting Cloud Optimization to Work<br />Global SaaS Application running on Amazon EC2 Infrastructure<br />59<br />60<br />50<br />40<br />30<br />20<br />10<br />0<br />30<br />Seconds<br />16<br />15<br />12<br />8<br />6<br />8<br />Australia<br />Asia<br />Europe<br />North America<br />With Akamai WAA<br />EC2<br />
  30. 30. Centralized Infrastructure is at RiskMideast Cable Cut<br />Loss for pair, India, All<br />100<br />80<br />60<br />40<br />20<br />0<br />Loss (percent)<br />Jan 25<br />Jan 27<br />Jan 29<br />Jan 31<br />Feb 02<br />Feb 04<br />Feb 06<br />Feb 08<br />Feb 10<br />Feb 12<br />Feb 14<br />Feb 16<br />Feb 18<br />Generic Internet Akamai<br />POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />
  31. 31. State of Internet Security Today<br />4000<br />3000<br />2000<br />1000<br />0<br />3,462<br />2,750<br />2,029<br />1,875<br />Volume of Vulnerabilities<br />2008<br />2007<br />2008<br />2007<br />(Web Application Vulnerabilities)<br />(Non-Web Application Vulnerabilities)<br />Source: Symantec Internet Security Threat Report, April 2009<br />
  32. 32. Peak Attack Traffic per year<br />49<br />50 45<br />40<br />35<br />30<br />25<br />20<br />15<br />10<br />5<br />0<br />250 225<br />200<br />175<br />150<br />125<br />100<br />75<br />50<br />25<br />0<br />40<br />>200<br />24<br />Attack Size - Gbps<br />17<br />10<br />2.5<br />1.2<br />2008<br />2009<br />2007<br />2006<br />2002<br />2003<br />2004<br />2005<br />(Akamai Technologies)<br />(Arbor Networks)<br />
  33. 33. July 4, 2009 Attack<br />Times Above Normal Traffic<br />598x<br />369x<br />39x<br />19x<br />9x<br />6x<br />SITE DOWN before Akamai<br />Customer – PROTECTED<br />U.S. Government Customer 1<br />U.S. Government Customer 2<br />U.S. Government Customer 3<br />U.S. Government Customer 4<br />U.S. Government Customer 5<br />U.S. Government Customer 6<br />New U.S. Government Customer<br />Peak Traffic<br />124 Gbps<br />32 Gbps<br />9 Gbps<br />9 Gbps<br />2 Gbps<br />1.9 Gbps<br />0.7 Gbps<br />
  34. 34. Web Site with Centralized Delivery<br />Cloud Datacenter<br />End User<br />Traffic<br />10000<br />1000<br />100<br />10<br />1<br />
  35. 35. Web Site with Centralized Delivery<br />X<br />Cloud Datacenter<br />End User<br />Traffic<br />10000<br />1000<br />100<br />10<br />1<br />
  36. 36. Web Site with Distributed Architecture<br />Cloud Datacenter<br />End User<br />Traffic<br />10000<br />1000<br />100<br />10<br />1<br />
  37. 37. VISA<br />VISA<br />VISA<br />VISA<br />VISA<br />Problems<br />Fast-growing PCI Audit Expense & Credit Card Risk<br />Transactions:Tokenization & Payment Services<br />Akamai Edge Servers<br />CloudDatacenter<br />Merchant<br />Data Vault<br />
  38. 38. VISA<br />VISA<br />Future Solution <br />Problems<br />Akamai Tokenization & Payment Services<br />Fast-growing PCI Audit Expense & Credit Card Risk<br />TOKEN<br />Transactions:Tokenization & Payment Services<br />MerchantBank<br />Akamai Edge Servers<br />CloudDatacenter<br />Merchant<br />Data Vault<br />
  39. 39. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />… and in 2020<br />State of the Internet Today<br />Premium HD <br />Video <br />Delivery <br />Ads<br />Applications<br />Devices<br />Long Tail SD<br />Centralized<br />Distributed<br />Behavioral<br />Contextual<br />Client<br />Cloud<br />Desktop<br />Mobile<br />Akamai Confidential<br />© 2010 Akamai<br />POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />
  40. 40. Desktop moves to even more devices<br />
  41. 41. Problem <br />Content needs modification based on device type<br />Mobile Delivery Today<br />Origin Web Server<br />Wireless<br />User<br />
  42. 42. Solution <br />Problem <br />Automatic Akamai transcoding at the Edge<br />Content needs modification based on device type<br />Future Mobile Delivery<br />Akamai Edge Servers<br />Origin Web Server<br />Wireless<br />User<br />
  43. 43. Future Mobile Apps<br /><ul><li>Click to call nearest store
  44. 44. Automatic GPS-based map to nearest store
  45. 45. Nearest store with desired product</li></li></ul><li>Mobile Payments 2020<br />
  46. 46. Mobile Healthcare Diagnostics 2020<br />Courtesy Gentag<br />
  47. 47. The IP-connected Automobile <br />
  48. 48. POWERING A BETTER INTERNET<br />… and in 2020<br />State of the Internet Today<br />Premium HD <br />Video <br />Delivery <br />Ads<br />Applications<br />Devices<br />Long Tail SD<br />Centralized<br />Distributed<br />Behavioral<br />Contextual<br />Client<br />Cloud<br />Desktop<br />Mobile<br />Akamai Confidential<br />© 2010 Akamai<br />

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