Presentation to Mindful Mobility Tech Talks on 27 October 2020. Who will win the race? What is the race? Vertical or Horizontal integration?

2. https://www.ttnews.com/articles/daimler-waymo-partner-develop-autonomous-trucks?utm_source=breaking%20news&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=News-Story-
October-2020&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWlRKbU9URTFaRGswTkRCaSIsInQiOiJZUDVVNFdzRzV1czk0d0U1d2JxQTVoeURWMU5WTmFweGpFWXZ1WCtRbkg1WDhjNlVPZVhaNlwvUG8yT0JFckdlc
GRQY0dcLzB4ME5wU0praEx4QVdvUnJWNTJVejdNeUpMNXF6ZDhZaWpqOHJcL1VOcExXYTFlbUtPUXRzYVJteXgzVCJ9

3. CASE
Connected
Autonomous
Safe
Electrified

4. CASE
Connected
Autonomous
Safe
Electrified

5. Agenda for 90 minutes
• 10 minutes Introduction and Overview
• 15 minutes Connected
• 3 minutes Q&A
• 15 minutes Safe
• 3 minutes Q&A
• 15 minutes Electrified
• 3 minutes Q&A
• 15 minutes Autonomous
• 3 minutes Q&A
• 8 minutes Final Thoughts & Q&A

6. The Race HAS Started

7. We Face Many HURDLES

8. Early in the Technology Adoption Curve
Source: Iowa State Research
Chasm

9. Who Will Finish? Who Will Win?

10. Paul Menig Speaks from Experience VEPS

11. 7 Forces to Rule Them All

12. Move
people and freight
safely, efficiently, reliably
Move
people and freight
safely, efficiently, reliably

13. Move
people and freight
safely, efficiently, reliably
Move
people and freight
safely, efficiently, reliably
Arm
Drugmaker

14. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/
business/coronavirus-covid-vaccine-cold-
frozen-logistics.html

20. What’s a Truck?
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/tmguide/tmg_2013/vehicle-types.cfm

21. What’s a Truck?
F-650
F-750
F-550
F-350
F-450
F-150
F-250

22. What is a COMMERCIAL Ground Vehicle?

23. Connected

24. What’s Behind
the Curtain?

26. Fleet Management
ELD Diagnostics Navigation
Shipping Weigh Station
Electronic TollPhone Apps Load Security

27. Vehicle to Anything (X) and Everything (E)
Driver

28. More Connections

29. Wired Technologies
• CAN SAE J1939
• ISO 11992
• PLC SAE J2497
• Ethernet
• Analog Sensors
• RS-485/USB
• GPIO
Mechanical
• Air Lines
• King Pin/Pintle Hook
• Safety Chains
• Tenders
Secure Wireless Technologies
• Multiple Cellular Options
• GPS
• Wi-Fi
• Bluetooth 5.0
• Zigbee
• Sub GHz Radio (TPMS)
• LORA
• SigFox
• DSRC
• C-V2X
• NFC Near Field Communications
Power
• 12 volt
• 24 volt
• 48 volt
• Battery
• TRU
• Axles
• Brakes

30. Trailer
MOU
Memorandum of Understanding
Right to Repair
Patent Free
Global Non-Proprietary
Forward/Backward Compatibility
Safety
Single Telematics Untethered
Doubles/Triples
Software Upgrades
Data Ownership
High Speed Connections
Cybersecurity
Power Connections
Installation, Maintenance, Inspection
Signatories
e S M A R T T ™
e nhanced
S afety
M aintainability
A nd
R eadiness
T hrough
T echnology

31. Where’s My Wife’s Package
Ordered 4/2
Shipped 6/5
Arrived 6/12

32. Government Regulations

33. In-Use Tracking Coming to U.S.A.
CARB Approves Tool to Track Emissions on
Trucks
As part of new amendments to the On-Board Diagnostic
Regulations that were recently approved by CARB, Real
Emissions Assessment Logging (REAL) would require an
On-Board Diagnostic system to collect and store emissions
data from NOx on medium- and heavy-duty diesel trucks
while in-use. The REAL amendment would also require OBD
systems to collect and store fuel consumption data that
would be used to track CO2 emission on all heavy-duty
vehicles in use.

34. Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA)

35. NOT Blockchain, BUT Maybe So
With this new offering, customers of Coretex and SkyBitz will benefit from the following:
Over 50 features of remote cold chain monitoring capabilities, including
• Two-way reefer control
• Monitoring of up to six doors
• Advanced power management to preserve reefer and telematics unit (TMU) battery life
• Single point of access to critical and timely best-in-class trailer utilization and reefer information on one seamlessly connected
platform, greatly expanding productivity and streamlining operations.
• Communication between the trailer and other connected sensors with options to expand to additional Coretex products such as
their assurance solution, CoreTemp.
• An unmatched compilation of integrated driver safety, compliance, and asset management tools including the Coretex integration
with trailer braking solutions and automatic tire inflation systems

37. Automated Warehouse

38. Dark/Ghost Kitchens and Stores

39. Last Few Steps Delivery

40. Move
people and freight
safely, efficiently, reliably
Move
people and freight
safely, efficiently, reliably
HOME/TABLE
FACTORY/
FARM

41. 11:13-11:1610:55-10:58

42. Safe

43. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vision_Zero

49. Truck Crashes Not Quite as Good

53. Stoneridge
Bosch/
Mekra Lang
Vision Systems
NA

55. Video
Click to view
3:40

57. Accelerate Adoption of Safety Technologies
5

58. 9
Tech-Celerate Now ADAS Technologies
Driver-facing Cameras
Lane Departure Warning
Air Disc Brakes
Automatic Emergency Braking

59. 10
Tech-Celerate Now ADAS Technologies
Adaptive Cruise Control
Blind Spot Warning
Forward Collision Warning
Road-facing Cameras

60. 11
Tech-Celerate Now ADAS Technologies
Lane Centering Assist
Lane Keep Assist
Camera-based Mirror Systems
Adaptive Steering Control

61. Fleets: Awareness - Braking
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Automatic Emergency Braking Air Disc Brakes Adaptive Cruise Control
Never Heard of It Slightly Familiar Mostly Familiar Very Familiar Expert on it

62. Fleets: Adoption - Braking
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Automatic Emergency Braking Air Disc Brakes Adaptive Cruise Control
PercentofRespondents
0% 1-10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-100%

63. Fleets: Expected Safety - Braking
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Automatic Emergency Braking Air Disc Brakes Adaptive Cruise Control
Will harm safety Little to no improvement
Slight improvement in safety Moderate improvement in Safety
Very large improvement in safety

64. Fleets: Top Ranked Issues Impacting Adoption Benefits
22.3%
20.2%
13.9%
12.1% 11.5%
8.6%
6.1%
5.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Technology
Purchase
Costs
LowerInsurance
Prem
ium
s
DriverAcceptance
Lower/BetterCSA
Scores
TaxDeduction/Credits
Technology
M
aintenanceIssues
Enforcem
ent/Inspection
Bypass
Required
byShippers&
Receivers

65. Fleets: Top Ranked Issues Impacting Adoption Benefits
22.3%
20.2%
13.9%
12.1% 11.5%
8.6%
6.1%
5.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Technology
Purchase
Costs
LowerInsurance
Prem
ium
s
DriverAcceptance
Lower/BetterCSA
Scores
TaxDeduction/Credits
Technology
M
aintenanceIssues
Enforcem
ent/Inspection
Bypass
Required
byShippers&
Receivers
9¢/mile
6¢/mile
4.5¢/mile

66. The massive crash was caused by weather
conditions coupled with speeding by a
CARRIER commercial vehicle driver. PERSON
attempted to drive his motorcycle onto a median
to avoid the pileup and the risk of other vehicles
crashing into him – but before he could do so,
PERSON collided with a stopped truck that had
no lights on in the emergency lane. The collision
launched PERSON into the median and left him
with severe, life-threatening injuries.
How much safety
equipment would that
have bought?

67. 19
Tech-Celerate Now Status
Virginia Tech created an ADAS Calculator for fleets to use in better
understanding their ROI for adopting AEB, LDW, and driver-facing
cameras.
https://www.vtti.vt.edu/
roicalculator/calculator.html

68. 11:13-11:16

69. Electrified

71. Gartner Hype Cycle

72. Hype, Adoption, Penetration, Chasm in ONE

73. Hype, Adoption, Penetration, Chasm in ONE

74. Diesel Fuel Prices

75. Déjà vu?—V-Shaped or W-Shaped Future?

76. The Paris Agreement
On 4 November 2019, the Government of the United States of America no=fied the
Secretary-General of its decision to withdraw from the Agreement which shall take
effect on 4 November 2020 in accordance with ar=cle 28 (1) and (2) of the
Agreement. See C.N.575.2019.TREATIES-XXVII.7.d of 4 November 2019.
189 Countries
have Ratified
Signed but not ratified:
Angola, Eritrea, Iran, Iraq,
Libya, South Sudan, Turkey,
Yemen
https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en#EndDec

77. Government Regulations

79. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/advanced-clean-trucks-fact-sheet

81. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/whats-sparking-electric-vehicle-adoption-in-the-truck-industry

82. https://www.automotiveworld.com/articles/the-timeline-to-commercial-vehicle-electrification-hard-stop-2050/?utm_source=Automotive+World+Customer&utm_campaign=a52b1e5f3e-
EMAIL-Weekly-24-feb-2020-customer&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ff4a976cd9-a52b1e5f3e-242468309&mc_cid=a52b1e5f3e&mc_eid=6a812de2ee

84. https://globaldrivetozero.org

85. https://www.truckinginfo.com/359610/number-of-zero-emissions-commercial-vehicles-models-expected-to-double-by-2023?
utm_source=email&utm_medium=enewsletter&utm_campaign=20200603-NL-HDT-HeadlineNews-BOBCD200528020&omdt=NL-HDT-
HeadlineNews&omid=1009822424&oly_enc_id=2016E5689890C6W

86. https://www.truckinginfo.com/359610/number-of-zero-emissions-commercial-vehicles-models-expected-to-double-by-2023?
utm_source=email&utm_medium=enewsletter&utm_campaign=20200603-NL-HDT-HeadlineNews-BOBCD200528020&omdt=NL-HDT-
HeadlineNews&omid=1009822424&oly_enc_id=2016E5689890C6W

87. https://www.truckinginfo.com/359610/number-of-zero-emissions-commercial-vehicles-models-expected-to-double-by-2023?
utm_source=email&utm_medium=enewsletter&utm_campaign=20200603-NL-HDT-HeadlineNews-BOBCD200528020&omdt=NL-HDT-
HeadlineNews&omid=1009822424&oly_enc_id=2016E5689890C6W

88. https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVESTMENT-ELECTRIC/010081ZB3HD/index.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-detroit-startups-electric-an-idUSKCN1P52DC

89. Who will win?
One of these companies?
Or, one of many startups?

90. Who will win?
One of these companies?
Or, one of many startups?
300
Traton + Navistar

91. 11:31-11:34

93. AutonomousElectric

94. Electronomous

95. There’s a Trick—Many Partnerships
Community Partners
It’s more than 3P
Public Private Partnerships
TRICKSING
T echnology
R isk (of Disruption)
I ncumbents (stalwarts)
C ustomers
K nowledge
S uppliers
I nvestors
N ewbies (startups/competition)
G overnment Subsidies
• Cloud Services
• Tracking and information
• Support Services
• Charging
• Government incentives
• Customers
• Vehicle OEM
• Parts
• Financing
• Tier-1
• Tier-2
EcoSystem

96. Electric Autonomous
Economy

97. Electronomy

98. Electronomy

99. Integration
Horizontal Vertical

100. Dana—Tier 1 Supplier

101. ZF—Tier 1 Supplier

102. Electronomy

103. Fleet
Upfitter
Vehicle OEM
Tier-1 Supplier
Leasing Company
Tier-2 Supplier
Navistar
Traton
Tier-3+ Supplier

104. Autonomous Vehicle Temperature
Mining
Ag
Ports
Terminals
DeliveryBus Passenger
Confined
Shuttles

106. 10 Companies Making Autonomous Trucks Real
https://www.gearbrain.com/autonomous-truck-startup-companies-2587305809.html
Tesla
Volvo
Waymo
Tesla
Daimler
Embark
tusimple
Pronto.AI
Locomation
Einride
Ike

107. When? Mañana
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/whats-sparking-electric-vehicle-adoption-in-the-truck-industry
Electric Autonomous

108. https://nacfe.org/downloads/defining-production/?mc_cid=aa26762a8a&mc_eid=34de56ab2a

110. Final Thoughts
11:52

114. Multiple Sources
• ATA Trucking Trends
• DOT
• National Strategic Freight Plan
• Pathways to the Future of Transportation
• AV 4.0
• Automotive World
• HDMA Pulse Webinars
• ACT Research
• FTR Associates
• NTEA
• FHWA
• Numbers Lie

115. Is there a race to be won?
• As in a track meet, there are many
competitions to be run
• There will be several winners
• There will be more losers than winners
• Some might win multiple medals
100m 800m 1600m 32km

116. NOW-12:00+

117. Business Accelerants™—Driving Faster Profitable Growth
More Money from Business
More Time for Life
Thanks for Watching/Listening
paul@BusinessAccelerants.com
https://calendly.com/paul-ba