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A6: Exploring potential guidance on NDC features
Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG)
Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change
3-4 April 2024
Manjeet Dhakal
Further guidance on features of NDCs
1/CP.21 Para 26, Requests the Ad Hoc
Working Group on the Paris Agreement
to develop further guidance on
features of the NDCs for consideration
and adoption by the CMA1.
Paris
2015
COP21, Paris
4/CMA.1 Para 19. Notes that features of
NDCs are outlined in the relevant
provisions of the Paris Agreement;
4/CMA.1 Para 20. Decides to continue
consideration of further guidance on
features of NDCs at CMA (2024).
Katowice
2018
COP24/CMA1
Mandate to consider
further guidance on
features of NDCs
Baku
2024
COP29/CMA6
Source: Informal document by the Co-Chairs (9 Sept 2018) A wide range of strongly-held views on how to discuss the issues of scope of NDCs and differentiation were shared…….
Features of NDCs: How could the options on features be better
organized and expressed more succinctly?
A. Identify and list existing features
B. New/additional features
C. Guidance/Elobarations on features
2023 was the warmest year on record!
4
• 2023 annual average global temperature 1.45
± 0.12 °C above pre-industrial levels
• Global CO2 emissions on a record high in 2023
• El Niño combines with climate change to fuel
heat in latter half of 2023
• 2024 expected to be possibly even warmer
• World edges ever closer toward the limits set
in the Paris Agreement, however, limiting
warming to 1.5°C is still possible
• Limiting warming to 1.5°C can go hand-in-
hand with achieving sustainable development
goals, poverty eradiation, improved health, and
access to clean energy.
New development since Paris!
Outcome of the First GST
Urgent action required to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C
• Recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and
sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the
2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050;
• Significantly greater emission reductions are required to align with global greenhouse gas emission trajectories in
line with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and recognizes the urgent need to address this gap;
• encouraged to come forward with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all
greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as
informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances.
• encouraged to align their NDCs with long-term low GHG emission reduction strategies and to
communicate or update such strategies by COP 29 in 2024.
Support needed for developing countries
• recognises and highlights the growing gaps between the needs of the developing countries, and the support
provided and mobilised to implement NDCs and NAPs (USD 5.8-5.9 trillions for the pre-2030 period),
adaptation finance (USD 215-387 billion annually), and USD 4.3 trillion/year needs in clean energy up until 2030.
• recognises the scale and elements of the NCQG to take into account the needs of the developing countries.
• financial actors to ensuring or enhancing access to climate finance and the establishment of new and
innovative sources of finance, including taxation.
New development since Paris!
Selected list from 1/CMA.5 related to call for urgent emisison reduction and means of implementation
How can features support our collective efforts?
• Existing NDCs have demonstrated that decisive action
from all can lead us to achieve the goals set in Paris,
however greater collective action with increased
ambition is needed from all.
• The technical and political differences regarding
"further guidance on NDC features" that were present
before Katowice may remain as it is.
• However, despite the differences, climate
catastrophes continue, disproportionately impacting
the most vulnerable, including the LDCs, who are at
the forefront of crises.
• The discusison on “guidance on NDC features”
provides opportunity to respond to the crises and
call for action to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C and
mobilize scaled-up finance for developing countries.
• Support improvements in transparency of
information included in NDCs
• Help in the aggregation of information across all
NDCs so we are in a better position to assess
progress (on the face of the NDCs and when it
comes to reporting on their
implementation/achievement through BTRs)
• Supplement (rather than duplicate) guidance
provided by ICTU
• Recognise that any guidance shouldn't encroach
upon nationally determined nature of NDCs
Potential ideas on guidance on NDC features
• elaborate and clarify the existing features, while respecting their
nationally determined character and agreed principles, such as
o successive NDCs will represent a progression beyond then current NDCs
o enhanced support for developing country Parties will allow for higher
ambition in their actions
• Response to the outcome of the first GST, such as:
o how NDCs has been informed by the outcome of GST (para. 4 of Annex I of
Decision 4/CMA.1)
o alignment between NDCs and LT-LEDS (para 40, 1/CMA.5)
o guidance related to alignment to 1.5°C and economy-wide emission
reduction targets (para 38 and 39, 1/CMA.5)
o revisit and strengthen 2030 targets (ambitious 2035 targets) aligned to
1.5°C (para 37, 1/CMA.5)
o strengthening implementation of existing NDCs and address the finance
gap (para 67, 1/CMA.5)
• take on board experiences/lesson learned from development and
implementation of NDCs
o quantification of targets – both on emission reduction and needs for
finance for the implementation of NDCs
o capacity building support for developing countries, particularly LDCs to
strengthen targets (emission and finance needs) and implement NDCs
Possible additional considerations:
• developing common
understanding on ’features’
• Timeline on outcomes of the
features to be applied
• Special circumstances of LDCs
and SIDS
• Possible features for components
related to adaptation and loss
and damage
• Possible features related to just
transition as linkage to NDCs

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CCXG global forum, April 2024, Manjeet Dhakal

  • 1. A6: Exploring potential guidance on NDC features Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change 3-4 April 2024 Manjeet Dhakal
  • 2. Further guidance on features of NDCs 1/CP.21 Para 26, Requests the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement to develop further guidance on features of the NDCs for consideration and adoption by the CMA1. Paris 2015 COP21, Paris 4/CMA.1 Para 19. Notes that features of NDCs are outlined in the relevant provisions of the Paris Agreement; 4/CMA.1 Para 20. Decides to continue consideration of further guidance on features of NDCs at CMA (2024). Katowice 2018 COP24/CMA1 Mandate to consider further guidance on features of NDCs Baku 2024 COP29/CMA6
  • 3. Source: Informal document by the Co-Chairs (9 Sept 2018) A wide range of strongly-held views on how to discuss the issues of scope of NDCs and differentiation were shared……. Features of NDCs: How could the options on features be better organized and expressed more succinctly? A. Identify and list existing features B. New/additional features C. Guidance/Elobarations on features
  • 4. 2023 was the warmest year on record! 4 • 2023 annual average global temperature 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above pre-industrial levels • Global CO2 emissions on a record high in 2023 • El Niño combines with climate change to fuel heat in latter half of 2023 • 2024 expected to be possibly even warmer • World edges ever closer toward the limits set in the Paris Agreement, however, limiting warming to 1.5°C is still possible • Limiting warming to 1.5°C can go hand-in- hand with achieving sustainable development goals, poverty eradiation, improved health, and access to clean energy. New development since Paris!
  • 5. Outcome of the First GST Urgent action required to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C • Recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050; • Significantly greater emission reductions are required to align with global greenhouse gas emission trajectories in line with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and recognizes the urgent need to address this gap; • encouraged to come forward with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances. • encouraged to align their NDCs with long-term low GHG emission reduction strategies and to communicate or update such strategies by COP 29 in 2024. Support needed for developing countries • recognises and highlights the growing gaps between the needs of the developing countries, and the support provided and mobilised to implement NDCs and NAPs (USD 5.8-5.9 trillions for the pre-2030 period), adaptation finance (USD 215-387 billion annually), and USD 4.3 trillion/year needs in clean energy up until 2030. • recognises the scale and elements of the NCQG to take into account the needs of the developing countries. • financial actors to ensuring or enhancing access to climate finance and the establishment of new and innovative sources of finance, including taxation. New development since Paris! Selected list from 1/CMA.5 related to call for urgent emisison reduction and means of implementation
  • 6. How can features support our collective efforts? • Existing NDCs have demonstrated that decisive action from all can lead us to achieve the goals set in Paris, however greater collective action with increased ambition is needed from all. • The technical and political differences regarding "further guidance on NDC features" that were present before Katowice may remain as it is. • However, despite the differences, climate catastrophes continue, disproportionately impacting the most vulnerable, including the LDCs, who are at the forefront of crises. • The discusison on “guidance on NDC features” provides opportunity to respond to the crises and call for action to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C and mobilize scaled-up finance for developing countries. • Support improvements in transparency of information included in NDCs • Help in the aggregation of information across all NDCs so we are in a better position to assess progress (on the face of the NDCs and when it comes to reporting on their implementation/achievement through BTRs) • Supplement (rather than duplicate) guidance provided by ICTU • Recognise that any guidance shouldn't encroach upon nationally determined nature of NDCs
  • 7. Potential ideas on guidance on NDC features • elaborate and clarify the existing features, while respecting their nationally determined character and agreed principles, such as o successive NDCs will represent a progression beyond then current NDCs o enhanced support for developing country Parties will allow for higher ambition in their actions • Response to the outcome of the first GST, such as: o how NDCs has been informed by the outcome of GST (para. 4 of Annex I of Decision 4/CMA.1) o alignment between NDCs and LT-LEDS (para 40, 1/CMA.5) o guidance related to alignment to 1.5°C and economy-wide emission reduction targets (para 38 and 39, 1/CMA.5) o revisit and strengthen 2030 targets (ambitious 2035 targets) aligned to 1.5°C (para 37, 1/CMA.5) o strengthening implementation of existing NDCs and address the finance gap (para 67, 1/CMA.5) • take on board experiences/lesson learned from development and implementation of NDCs o quantification of targets – both on emission reduction and needs for finance for the implementation of NDCs o capacity building support for developing countries, particularly LDCs to strengthen targets (emission and finance needs) and implement NDCs Possible additional considerations: • developing common understanding on ’features’ • Timeline on outcomes of the features to be applied • Special circumstances of LDCs and SIDS • Possible features for components related to adaptation and loss and damage • Possible features related to just transition as linkage to NDCs