Presentation by Crispin d'Auvergne, Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States Commission, for the event "Understanding Climate Change Adaptation in the Saint Lucia Context," a briefing for journalists held in Castries, Saint Lucia, on June 25, 2017.

1. CLIMATE SCIENCE, POLITICS &
DIPLOMACY FROM A TO T: WHERE ARE WE
NOW?
E. Crispin d’Auvergne
Programme Coordinator-Climate
Change and Disaster Risk
Management
OECS Commission

2. “Fathers” of Climate Science

3. Chronology: Advances in Climate
Science

4. Climate Science: Society,
Politics 1950s-70s
 Man-induced disruption of nature assumes
plausibility
 Debate: warming or cooling?
 Keeling measures consistent rise in atmospheric
CO2
 1962: Silent Spring

5. Climate Science: Society,
Politics 1950s-70s
 1963: Conservation Foundation conference:
"potentially dangerous atmospheric increases
of CO2”
 1965: President's ScienceAdvisory
Committee:-potential for global warming a
matter of serious national concern.
 Ongoing research
 Growing media attention

6. 1970s-80s: Convergence
 Continuing research and scientific debate
 1970: 1st Earth Day- Environmentalism
 Acid rain
 1979: 1st World Climate Conference (WCC)
 1983: (EPA) report -future temperature rise
could be catastrophic. Controversy!

7. 1970s-80s: The Final Straw
 1985: Discovery of Ozone "hole"
 1988: Interdisciplinary studies: a few ° of
warming: -consequences for natural,
agricultural and human systems
 Jim Hansen testifies before Congress (’86-'88)
 1988: Heat waves, Hurricane Gilbert, falling
river levels; highest ° on record in DC

8. 1988-1994: Coalescence
 1988: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) created
 1990: IPCC's 1st assessment report
 IPCC , 2nd WCC call for global CC global treaty
 UNGA negotiations on framework convention start.
 1991: 1st meeting of Intergovernmental Negotiating
Committee (INC).
 1992: INC adopts UNFCCC text.
 Earth Summit, Rio: UNFCCC opened for signature
 1994: UNFCCC enters into force

9. 1995 Onwards: Negotiations
 1995: 1st Conference of Parties (COP 1), Berlin.
 1997: COP3 Kyoto Protocol (KP) adopted
 2001: IPCC's 3rd Assessment Report.
 COP 7- Marrakech rules for KP; new funding, planning
instruments for adaptation; technology transfer
framework.
 2005: KP e.i.f. 1st Meeting of the Parties to the KP (MOP
1) , Montreal
 2007: IPCC 4th Assessment Report.
 2009: COP15: Copenhagen! 100bn pledge
 2010: CancunGreen Climate Fund first proposed

10. The Road to Paris...
After Copenhagen failure (CoP15 2009), a fading
(and failing) Kyoto Protocol:
 Call for a new global agreement on climate
change
 Mandate at 17th (COP-17, Durban 2011) to:
“launch a process to develop (a) a protocol,
another legal instrument or an agreed
outcome with legal force (b) under the
Convention (c) applicable to all Parties”

11. The Road to Paris…
COP-18 (Doha) 2012: Doha Amendment: 2nd
Commitment Period for the Kyoto Protocol
Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) on Loss & Damage
Agreement on intended Nationally Determined Contributions
COP-19 (Warsaw): (iNDCs
COP-20 (Lima): Lima Call for Climate Action; Membership
of L& D Committee; Annex to serve as basis for
negotiations on new agreement; Guidelines for iNDCs
COP-17 (Durban) 2011: Mandate for a new
Climate Agreement by 2015

12. The Players?
GROUP Countries Sub-Groups
Annex1 Developed Countries
Non-Annex 1 Mostly Developing Countries
and a few EITs
G77 & China Most developing countries (133
members)
LMDCs;Arab Group, BASIC,
AILAC,African Group (Most
SIDS and LDCs),China
LDCs 50 countries Most part of G77. Some are SIDS
AOSIS 43 Small Island and low-lying
coastal states
Pacific; Caribbean; AIMS;
Singapore
Environmental Integrity Group Mexico, Liechtenstein, Monaco,
the Republic of Korea,
Switzerland
Umbrella Group Australia, Canada, Iceland,
Japan, New Zealand, Norway,
the Russian Federation, Ukraine
and the US
Parties often speak separately
European Union 28 member states of the EU, as
one entity
Individual EU States

13. The
Players?
•Technical/Policy
delegates
•Ministers
•Heads of
Government/State
•Scientists/Academics
•Lawyers
•Economists
•Meteorologists
•Other Specialists
•Mayors
•Private Sector
•Observers: NGOs, IGOs,
etc.

14. Negotiating What?
 Science, e.g. 1.5 or 2°, severity of impacts;
 Ambition
 Responsibility: Historical responsibility,
Common but Differentiated Responsibility
(CBDR);
 Who should pay? How much?Through
what means? For what?
 Guidelines and frameworks
 Measuring reporting and verification
(MRV)
 Loss & Damage
 Bottom Line:Who is responsible?Who
should do what, when? Who should pay
and how much? Economics. Survival!

15. Negotiation: Where? How? When?
 Where: Inter-
sessionals, IPCC; COP,
 How: Plenaries,
informals, informal
informals, bilaterals,
regional/group
meetings; special
bodies; corridors
 When: In Paris, ±24/7

16. Paris: Red Lines for CARICOM
Red Lines Outcome
Legally binding agreement applicable
to all
√
Long term temperature goal (holding
well below 2° and well below 1.5° by
2100
√
Special circumstances of SIDS √
REDD Plus Framework anchored and
supported in Agreement
√
Ramping up of mitigation ambition √
Loss and damage firmly and
separately embedded in agreement
√
A commitment to post-2020 financing
with US$100 billion as the floor
√

17. After Paris: Marrakech, Bonn, Poland…
Operationalising Paris
 Rules, MRV
 Finance
 Loss and damage
 Pre-2020 ambition
 (IPCC 6th Assessment Report)
 2020 Paris Agreement comes into full effect
 Increasing ambition (NDCs not enough)

18. AFTER PARIS: 2017…
USWithdrawal from
PA:
• No surprise
• Nation not
unanimous in
withdrawal
• US private sector
wants to stay in
the game
• Municipalities
want to stay in
• The world still
needs the US!

19. Where are We Now?
 149 of 197 UNFCCC Parties have ratified PA
 Scientific findings increasingly dire
 Sluggish global economy dulls ambition
 Brexit!
 US withdrawal:
 uncertainty/vacuum
 opportunities for China, India, EU, others
 US will lose out once they remain out
 the world still needs the US!
 US will likely return, but when?
 Developed and developing countries taking action, creating
partnerships
 Ultimately, adequacy of action will depend on collective global
will!

20. Didn’t Start Yesterday, Won’t
End Tomorrow!