Kyoto and Beyond 
ROAD 
TO 
LIMA 
The 13th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements 
related to climate...
Introduction 
Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international 
climate treaty process that beg...
Contents 
Historical Background 
Conference Overview 
Multilateral Process 
Issues & Positions 
Conclusion 
This presentat...
Background: Timeline 
Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 4 
1992 
UN Framework 
Convention on 
Climate Change 
1992 | 1997 | 20...
Background: Climate Policy 
In 1992 the UNFCCC established the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas 
emissions (GHGs) to...
Background: The ADP 
In 2011 at COP17 Durban, South Africa, UNFCCC negotiators created the Ad Hoc 
Working Group on the Du...
Overview: COP20 Lima 2014 
COP20 will be held Dec. 1 – Dec. 12, 2014 in Lima, Peru. 
The 2014 meeting is the 20th Conferen...
Overview: COP20 Objectives 
COP20’s primary objective is to elaborate elements for a draft negotiating text 
of the 2015 a...
Overview: Peru’s Leadership 
With glaciers melting and drought in the Amazon, Peru 
is clearly vulnerable to climate chang...
Process: UN Preparations 
The UNFCCC multilateral preparatory process for COP20 involves many 
interconnected UN bodies an...
Process: Pre-COP March 2014 Bonn 
At the first of three scheduled inter-COP meetings, negotiators at the 
March 10-14, 201...
Process: Pre-COP June 2014 Bonn 
At the Bonn Climate Change Conference June 4-15, 2014 conversations were 
lively as repre...
Process: Summit Sept 2014 NYC 
UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon invited leaders from government and business to a 
Climate Summit,...
Process: Pre-COP Oct 2014 Bonn 
Negotiators at the Bonn Climate Change Conference October 20-25, 2014 
slowly inched forwa...
Process: Conference Schedule 
The 12-day gathering at COP20 in Lima includes meetings of the COP, CMP, 
SBI, SBSTA, and AD...
Issues: 2020 Treaty 
On Nov. 11, 2014 the ADP released a “Non-paper on elements for a draft 
negotiating text” of the 2015...
Issues: INDCs 
The ADP is considering several options related to the kinds of information that 
must be provided as countr...
Issues: Pre-2020 Ambition 
Pre-2020 ambition must increase in order to close the gap between pledged 
cuts and targets rec...
Issues: The Science 
On Nov. 1, 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 
released the Fifth Assessment S...
Positions: A Landmark Deal 
A potentially pivotal moment in global climate history occurred on Nov. 11, 
2014 when the US ...
Positions: Global Responses 
The China-US announcement elicited various responses around the globe and 
created a ripple i...
Conclusion: Hope for Paris? 
The US and China have created much-needed momentum towards a “last 
chance” summit in Paris, ...
Sources 
The Age. Nov. 13, 2014. Climate change squarely on G20 agenda after historic china-US deal. http://www.theage.com...
Sources 
IIP Digital, US Embassy. Nov. 11, 2014. FACT SHEET: U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change and Clean Ene...
Sources 
New York Times. Nov. 11, 2014. U.S. and China Reach Climate Accord After Months of Talks. http://www.nytimes.com/...
Sources 
UNFCCC. Oct. 2014. Questions and answers on some legal and institutional aspects of the 2015 agreement. 
http://u...
Citation 
When referencing this presentation please use the following citation. 
ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Road to Lima COP20. A s...
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Road to Lima COP20

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Road to Lima is a summary of preparations for COP20, the 20th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 10th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which will be held Dec. 1-12 in Lima, Peru.

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Road to Lima COP20

  1. 1. Kyoto and Beyond ROAD TO LIMA The 13th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change www.isciences.com November 19, 2014
  2. 2. Introduction Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992. Road to Lima is a summary of preparations for COP20, the 20th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 10th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. COP20 will be held Dec. 1 – 12, 2014 in Lima, Peru. Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*:  2008 Kyoto and Beyond  2012 Road to Rio+20  2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update  2012 Report on Rio+20  2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15  2012 Road to Doha COP18  2010 Road to Cancun COP16  2013 Report on Doha COP18  2011 Report on Cancun COP16  2014 Report on Warsaw COP19  2011 Road to Durban COP17  2012 Report on Durban COP17 * Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 2
  3. 3. Contents Historical Background Conference Overview Multilateral Process Issues & Positions Conclusion This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 3
  4. 4. Background: Timeline Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 4 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012 2011 Durban Platform adopted at COP17 2007 IPCC 4th Assessment Report 2010 Cancun Agreements drafted at COP16 1990 IPCC 1st Assessment Report 1995 IPCC 2nd Assessment Report 1997 Kyoto Protocol adopted 2001 IPCC 3rd Assessment Report Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept. 1999 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept. 2011 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 2009 Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 2013 IPCC 5th Assessment Report “A Year in the Life of Earth’s CO2” (Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center) A simulation of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere provides an ultra-high- resolution look at how the key greenhouse gas moves around the globe and fluctuates in volume throughout the year. Visualization Jan. 1-Dec. 31, 2006
  5. 5. Background: Climate Policy In 1992 the UNFCCC established the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) to “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Since then the global policy framework has continued to evolve. (Image Credit: UNFCCC) 1997 The Kyoto Protocol created an international legal framework within the UNFCCC for emissions reduction targets during the period 2008-2012 for developed countries. 2009 The Copenhagen Accord, conceived outside of the UNFCCC process, called for voluntary emissions reduction targets achieved by 2020, and endorsed a cap on global temperature increase of 2⁰C. The UNFCCC officially “took note” of the Accord. 2010 The Cancun Agreements acknowledged within the UNFCCC framework the objective of keeping the average global temperature rise below 2⁰C. 2011 The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, adopted within the UNFCCC process, mandated the creation of a new agreement (post-Kyoto Protocol) that would be “applicable to all.” For a more detailed history of the UNFCCC see http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 5
  6. 6. Background: The ADP In 2011 at COP17 Durban, South Africa, UNFCCC negotiators created the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP). Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 6 The ADP was tasked with:  Developing a post-2020 treaty applicable to all that would be completed and adopted by 2015 at COP21 Paris and enter into force by 2020, the year in which the 2nd period of the Kyoto Protocol expires.  Enhancing mitigation ambition to close the ambition gap – the difference between emissions levels expected in 2020 if pledges are met and levels needed by 2020 to meet the 2⁰C target. Report of the Conference of the Parties on its seventeenth session, held in Durban from 28 November to 11 December 2011 (FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1 ) In order to adopt a new treaty in 2015, the ADP should have a detailed working draft of the text ready for discussion at COP20 Lima on Dec. 1, 2014.
  7. 7. Overview: COP20 Lima 2014 COP20 will be held Dec. 1 – Dec. 12, 2014 in Lima, Peru. The 2014 meeting is the 20th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 10th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The Conference will be hosted by Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, Minister of the Environment of Peru, and President-Designate of COP 20 and CMP 10* and Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. Christiana Figures More than 15,000 people are expected, representing 194 nations and more than 5,000 observer organizations. * Following the procedural rules of the UNFCCC, the office of COP President and host country rotates among the 5 UN regional groups. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 7 Manuel Pulgar-Vidal (Image Credit: UNFCCC)
  8. 8. Overview: COP20 Objectives COP20’s primary objective is to elaborate elements for a draft negotiating text of the 2015 agreement. Overall Objectives for COP20:  Produce a draft text of the 2015 agreement.  Decide whether adaptation, as well as mitigation, will be included in the Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 8 agreement.  Clarify how transparency and assessment of the INDCs* will be accomplished.  Consolidate the financial mechanisms of the Convention that will support the agreement.  Accelerate implementation of pre-2020 ambition through concrete actions. “We expect that the COP 20 will produce a draft agreement to be signed in 2015, and we wish the Lima Document to be clear and coherent, we do not want a compilation of loose and inarticulate ideas.” - Peruvian President Ollanta Humala, Sept. 23, 2014 * INDCs-Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. http://www.mitigationpartnership.net/international-partnership-mitigation-and-mrv-2014-intended-nationally-determined-contributions
  9. 9. Overview: Peru’s Leadership With glaciers melting and drought in the Amazon, Peru is clearly vulnerable to climate change, yet its environmental progress has been slow, and at times, violent. Lima, Peru (Image Credit: Christian Cordova, http://www.flickr.com/photos/ccordova/8693828441/) Lima has the worst air pollution in Latin America*, and the country’s illegal mining and logging have resulted in the deaths of environmental activists. Peru’s Environment Ministry wasn’t created until 2008 and only under pressure from the US as a condition of trade. Environment Minister Pulgar-Vidal has spent years in environmental roles but recent economic reforms by Peruvian President Humala have sacrificed environmental standards and undermined the Ministry’s authority. Though it may be difficult to lead by example, Peru must garner timely climate commitments from international negotiators. * Peruvian Times. May 8, 2014. http://www.peruviantimes.com/08/world-health-organization-says-lima-has-worst-air-pollution-in-latam/22119/. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 9
  10. 10. Process: UN Preparations The UNFCCC multilateral preparatory process for COP20 involves many interconnected UN bodies and working groups. (Image Credit: UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/bodies/items/ 6241.php) Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 10
  11. 11. Process: Pre-COP March 2014 Bonn At the first of three scheduled inter-COP meetings, negotiators at the March 10-14, 2014 Climate Change Conference in Bonn began open-ended discussions on the two workstreams of the ADP. ADP Co-Chairs Kishan Kumarsingh (Trinidad and Tobago) and Artur Runge-Metzger (EU) (Image Credit: UNclimatechange/flickr) Workstream 1: The 2015 agreement Concerns were expressed about transparency and inclusiveness of process, not wanting a repeat of Copenhagen where the Accord was created outside of the COP. A workshop addressed domestic preparations for INDCs. Workstream 2: Increasing pre-2020 ambition Two Technical Expert Meetings* (TEMs) were held during which guest panelists shared options on renewable energy and energy efficiency. Delegates agreed to start drafting text of the 2015 agreement at the upcoming meeting in June. * In Warsaw, the ADP requested technical expert meetings at 2014 sessions to share policies, practices and technologies with high mitigation potential. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 11
  12. 12. Process: Pre-COP June 2014 Bonn At the Bonn Climate Change Conference June 4-15, 2014 conversations were lively as representatives began articulating a wide spectrum of positions. Workstream 1: The 2015 Agreement Heated exchanges on INDCs captured much of the floor time. Delegates discussed how INDCs should be defined, submitted, and reviewed. Developed countries viewed INDCs as mitigation-based; developing countries pushed for inclusion of adaptation, finance, capacity-building, and technology. Bonn Climate Change Conference, June 4, 2014 (Image Credit: UNclimatechange/flickr) Workstream 2: Increasing pre-2020 ambition TEMs focused on opportunities for action on urban environment and land use. ADP Co-Chairs Kumarsingh and Runge-Metzger were asked to compose and make available by July a draft text in advance of the next pre-COP meeting in Bonn October 20-25. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 12
  13. 13. Process: Summit Sept 2014 NYC UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon invited leaders from government and business to a Climate Summit, Sept. 23, 2014 in New York City. Not part of the official UN negotiating process, its purpose was to mobilize action ahead of 2015. Though Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi - leaders of key CO2 emitting nations China and India - did not attend, US President Barack Obama and 100 Heads of State did, along with commercial and civic leaders. Outcome Highlights:  New York Declaration on Forests; halve deforestation by 2020, end it by 2030;  a total pledge of US$2.3 billion made to the Green Climate Fund (GCF);  the launch of the Global Alliance of Climate-Smart Agriculture;  the announcement by the insurance industry of intention to create a Climate Risk Investment Framework by 2015 in Paris; On the Sunday before the Summit, a global climate march rallied 310,000 people in NYC and 270,000 elsewhere around the world. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 13  launch of a new Compact of Mayors;  World Bank’s Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition to advance carbon pricing. Ban Ki-moon (second from right) at climate march, NYC Sept. 21, 2014. (Image Credit: UN Photo)
  14. 14. Process: Pre-COP Oct 2014 Bonn Negotiators at the Bonn Climate Change Conference October 20-25, 2014 slowly inched forward on refining a draft negotiating text. Workstream 1: The 2015 Agreement Progress was slow on defining how INDCs will operationalize differentiation, scope and review, and whether to include adaptation as well as mitigation. Brazil created a buzz with “concentric differentiation,” a dynamic that would preserve differentiated responsibilities while encouraging graduated targets. Bonn Climate Change Conference, Oct. 20, 2014 (Image Credit: UNclimatechange/flickr http://goo.gl/Uxx9c1) Workstream 2: Increasing pre-2020 ambition TEMs on carbon capture, use and storage, and on non-CO2 GHGs were held. Though the meeting produced revised drafts* by the Co-Chairs, content remained light on negotiable substance, reflecting ongoing lack of agreement. The ADP agreed to hold two additional sessions in 2015, the first of which will be held February 8-13 February in Geneva. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 14 * Draft INDCs; Draft Pre-2020 Action
  15. 15. Process: Conference Schedule The 12-day gathering at COP20 in Lima includes meetings of the COP, CMP, SBI, SBSTA, and ADP. SCHEDULE OF MEETINGS SESSION DATE AGENDA COP 20 1 – 12 Dec 2014 FCCC/CP/2014/1 CMP 10 1 – 12 Dec 2014 FCCC/KP/CMP/2014/1 SBI 41 1 – 8 Dec 2014 FCCC/SBI/2014/9 SBSTA 41 1 – 6 Dec 2014 FCCC/SBSTA/2014/3 ADP 3 1 – 11 Dec 2014 ADP/2014/AGENDA (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons) Overview schedule as of Oct. 15, 2014. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 15 COP – Conference of the Parties CMP – Conference of the Parties service as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol SBI – Subsidiary Body for Implementation SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
  16. 16. Issues: 2020 Treaty On Nov. 11, 2014 the ADP released a “Non-paper on elements for a draft negotiating text” of the 2015 agreement. The challenge in Lima will be to reduce the many options and sub-options currently outlined in the “Non-paper” into a clear framework with core elements. Issues include: Mitigation commitments. Options: (1) all Parties to be prepared, communicated and implemented without conditions; (2) developing country Parties to be prepared, communicated and implemented specifying additional enhanced levels of mitigation commitments/contributions subject to the provision of support by developed country Parties; (3) developing country Parties to be prepared, communicated and implemented subject to the provision of finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building. Cooperation and support for implementation. Options: (1) developed country Parties to provide support to developing country Parties for implementation, taking into account CBDR*; (2) all Parties in a position to do so to provide support for implementation; (3) a collective goal for support to be achieved by all Parties . Time frames and process related to commitments/contributions. Options: (1) every 5 yrs for all parties or for developed parties only; (2) every 5 yrs indicating the commitment/contribution for the subsequent 5-yr period as well as for the following 5-yr period; (3) every 10 yrs; (4) period to be determined by the governing body. To be ready for adoption at COP21 Paris in December 2015, the draft negotiating text should be translated, reproduced, and available by May 2015. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 16 * CBDR-Common But Differentiated Responsibilities
  17. 17. Issues: INDCs The ADP is considering several options related to the kinds of information that must be provided as countries submit their INDCs. Embedded in those options is whether and how requirements for developed and developing countries differ. Mitigation: type, time-frame, sectors, quantification, transparency. Process decisions may include cycles of action enabling increasing commitment, and the explicit goal of GHG phase-out. Adaptation: inclusion, type, projected climate impacts, vulnerable sectors, timelines for support. Sentiment is leaning towards inclusions of adaptation in the 2015 agreement. Finance, technology and capacity-building: scale, type, time-frame, channels. The Green Climate Fund is a critical vehicle, currently funded at $7.5 billion with a $10 billion goal. Negotiators must also create a path towards mobilization of $100 billion a year in climate finance. Assessment and transparency: means, methods. Assessment must be framed by the 2°C goal. Countries will submit their INDCs in early 2015, with major emitters expected to do so by the end of March. * Options are outlined in a separate draft, also released on Nov. 11, 2014. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 17
  18. 18. Issues: Pre-2020 Ambition Pre-2020 ambition must increase in order to close the gap between pledged cuts and targets recommended to keep warming to 2C. At the pre-COPs in Bonn, Technical Expert Meetings showcased ways to shift to low-carbon economies; countries must now implement those opportunities as part of their Carbon pricing could play a role. So far, 73 countries, 1,000 businesses, and 354 major institutional investors have declared support for carbon pricing. The EU currently runs the largest carbon market but China has announced plans for a system in 2016 and Chile approved a carbon tax beginning in 2018. As of Nov. 14, 2014 only 19 countries have ratified the Doha Amendment. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 18 near-term climate action plans. Ratification of the 2012 Doha Amendment, which extended the Kyoto Protocol to Dec. 31, 2020, is also an important piece of the ambition formula.
  19. 19. Issues: The Science On Nov. 1, 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report to inform delegates of scientific realities as they work towards the Paris climate deal.  To limit global average temperature increase to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels emissions must fall 40 to 70 percent from current levels by 2050 and to zero by 2100.  With fast action, this could be done at a manageable cost, a 0.06 percentage point reduction a year in consumption of goods and services, below annual projected growth of 1.6 to 3.0 percent. (Image Credit: IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Presentation, Nov. 2, 2014, Without timely emissions cuts, warming by the end of the 21st century will bring high risks of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally.* Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 19 * AR5 Synthesis Report
  20. 20. Positions: A Landmark Deal A potentially pivotal moment in global climate history occurred on Nov. 11, 2014 when the US and China struck a deal. President Xi Jinping and President Obama, leaders of the No. 1 and No. 2 carbon polluters, jointly announced targets for emissions reductions. The US pledged to emit 26 to 28 percent less carbon in 2025 than in 2005, double the pace targeted for period 2005 to 2020. China pledged to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and that clean energy would account for 20 percent of total energy production by 2030. President Obama and President Xi Jinping, Nov. 11, 2014 (Image Credit: wh.gov) The two also agreed to co-finance a carbon capture and storage project in China. This handshake between the developed and developing world puts pressure on foot-draggers in both camps to step forward with meaningful targets. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 20
  21. 21. Positions: Global Responses The China-US announcement elicited various responses around the globe and created a ripple in bloc alliances. The timing of the announcement, just prior to the G20 Summit, was significant. AUSTRALIA. Australia’s PM and G20 host Tony Abbott was caught off-guard. Australia had repealed its cap-and-trade policy and Abbott fought unsuccessfully to keep climate change off the G20 agenda. The G20 agreed to support adoption of a protocol with legal force in 2015, financing for the Green Climate Fund, and submission of INDCs by first quarter of 2015. INDIA. India downplayed pressure the deal put on India to fall in line and announce meaningful INDCs, responding that India would declare an emissions peak “at the right moment". India’s action or inaction will be key in 2015. CANADA. The deal presented challenges for Canada as well, which had generally aligned itself with the US in insisting that China and other emerging economies set targets. Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2011 and will fall short of its 2020 targets. EUROPEAN UNION. The EU, the first major economy to set post-2020 emissions targets, had already announced targets at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, with renewable energy to provide at least 27 percent. BRAZIL. Brazil maintains that developed countries must be held responsible for their historic contributions to climate change. Though the landmark deal between the two global powerhouses is still a promise that must be kept, governments can no longer point to China and the United States to justify their own inaction. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 21
  22. 22. Conclusion: Hope for Paris? The US and China have created much-needed momentum towards a “last chance” summit in Paris, but India and the rest of the world must commit. “If you don’t have an agreement in Paris, we may well say goodbye to the world we have today.” - Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist As important as the US-China deal is in setting the stage, it will not be enough to keep global warming within the 2°C target. Actions by India and Russia will be critical, as will those of the developing world who will look to China in formulating their targets. Watch for ISciences’ post-Lima analysis of COP20 at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 22
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  27. 27. Citation When referencing this presentation please use the following citation. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Road to Lima COP20. A slideshow; 13th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change. November 19, 2014. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com. Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 27

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