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Marrakech COP22 climate conference 2016 - an Australian perspective

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As an Australian climate activist with the CAN network I attended COP22 UNFCCC climate conference in Marrakech, Morocco. This presentation doesn't go into the fine details of the negotiations, but covers the political mood and momentum of the conference. "It's all in the vibe", as solicitor Denis would say from the classic Australian movie The Castle.

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Marrakech COP22 climate conference 2016 - an Australian perspective

  1. 1. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  2. 2. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 Main Focus: implementation of Paris Agreement Also Encouraging pre-2020 emissions cuts, especially through non-state action John Englart – Climate Action Moreland Photo: Heads of State and Ministers gather for High Level COP Plenary
  3. 3. Revision - Paris Agreement COP21 ● Paris Agreement first envisaged in Durban 2011 as coming into effect 2020 ● Each country sets own climate plans (Nationally Determined Contributions - NDC) ● Not legally binding, but politically binding model with peer pressure ● Ambition mechanism: each 5 years a Global Stocktake to ratchet up NDCs ● PA Came into force 4 November 2016 before COP22. In Record time for a UN treaty. ● Early entry into force took most people by surprise. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  4. 4. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland ● Keep temperatures well below 2C, strive for 1.5C (Article 2) ● Balance between emissions and sinks in second half of century (Article 4) ● Global peaking of Green House Gases ASAP (Article 4) ● 2016 hottest year on record with 1.2C warming from pre- industrial times. Global Average temperature for February- March 2016 spiked at 1.5C Sources: Decision COP.21 /Paris Agreement, Copernicus 2017 5 Jan2017 Paris Agreement - Targets
  5. 5. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland Paris Agreement – Emissions Gap ● Current policies on track for 3.6C – 4.9C by 2100 ● NDCs, many conditional, add up to 2.8C – 3.5C of warming by 2100 ● 5 nations plans ‘sufficient’: Morocco, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Bhutan, The Gambia ● Importance of ambition mechanism to close this gap and non-state action. Source: http://climateactiontracker.org/
  6. 6. Marrakech opened with momentum ● Montreal Protocol Kilgali amendment on HFC gases – saving up to 0.5C by 2100 ● International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) carbon offsets scheme (CORSIA) from 2020 ● Cities, businesses, regional governments, and other non- state actors stepping up action Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland Photo: Watching Opening COP Plenary inside Casablanca Plenary hall (Overflow)
  7. 7. Fine details (the rulebook) to be negotiated and codified. These include Transparency and accounting framework measures: ● Standardised carbon accounting, methodologies, modalities in NDCs, ● International market mechanism, ● Technology mechanism, ● Global stocktake, ● Compliance mechanism, ● Adaptation framework, ● Loss and Damage framework, ● More work on Finance and $100 billion p.a. international roadmap Outcome: Marrakech set the timetable for completing the Rulebook by COP24 in Poland in 2018. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  8. 8. Election of Donald Trump as US President in first week distracted and depressed the mood of negotiations Implications ● Possible withdrawal of US from either Paris Agreement or the UNFCCC ● Possible loss of funds to UNFCCC and $100 billion pa roadmap ● Who might replace US climate leadership? Is this important? ● China stepping up. ● Europe still has a key role ● Role of India key but they were silent ● Other countries? Brazil? Canada? Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland US Presidential election and COP22 Photo: Alden Meyer of Union of Concerned Scientists as part of US civil society groups addressing press conference after the election.
  9. 9. US election: Statements by civil society & business groups ● Transition already happening in many US states, cities and businesses. ● US transition cannot be stopped, but maybe slowed down, targets not met. ● Simple economics driving continued transition, with renewables cheaper than fossil fuels. ● Reversing Obama’s executive policy decisions on clean energy & environment will be hotly contested Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  10. 10. US election Reaction by negotiators: ● Additional negotiation stream sessions added ● Anecdotal: 3 Fossil of the day awards cancelled – an indicator? ● Marrakech Action Proclamation: consensus statement on sense of urgency and momentum ● High Level 100 percent Renewables side event with support of UN secretariat, CVF. #Go100RE ● Last Day CVF statement (48 nations) to transition to 100 percent renewables ASAP before 2050 Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  11. 11. Australia at COP22 ● Australia lodged ratification of Paris Agreement and Doha amendment (Kyoto Protocol) ● 3 background briefings by Australian ambassador for Australian stakeholders ● 2 ministers attended, available to meet at a cocktail party event, but no briefings ● Australia under the spotlight at SBI Multilateral assessment facilitative dialogue ● Julie Bishop delivered high level statement to COP ● Julie Bishop signed 2nd Because the Ocean Declaration on marine conservation http://takvera.blogspot.com.au/search/label/COP22 Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland Photo: Foreign Minister Julie Bishop delivering Australia’s official statement to the COP Photo: Australia’s lead negotiator Patrick Suckling answers questions at SBI Facilitative Dialogue
  12. 12. CAN Fossil of the Day awards: ● Fossil of the day awards can be surprisingly effective, sometimes impacting negotiations or politics back home in the featured country. ● Russia scored the Colossal Fossil award for 2016 at COP22. ● Ray of the COP went to the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) for pushing the envelope on 100 percent renewables ● Two awards for Australia: ● For Frydenberg using the COP to complain about civil society working across borders ● Australia Shared an award for being one of the nations increasing fossil fuel production Source: https://www.facebook.com/FossilOfTheDay/ Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  13. 13. Momentum After COP22 (1 of 4) Global Divestment: ● Doubled in 15 months - US$2.6 trillion to US$5 trillion in assets by December 2016. (350.org) https://350.org/big-divestment-news/ Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  14. 14. Momentum After COP22 (2 of 4) United States: Despite the climate denialism in a Trump administration, it will be difficult to stop zero carbon transition already underway and driven by economic forces, with action by citizens, businesses and states. Progress may however be slowed, and climate targets are likely not to be achieved. ● 33 states and District of Columbia have cut carbon emissions while expanding economies since 2000 ● 15 states, led by California, New York, Virginia, Vermont, New Mexico, told Trump that if he tries to kill US climate plans, they will see him in court.(Climate Home 29Dec2016) ● West Coast Leaders statement on conclusion of COP22 (pacificcoastcollaborative.org 18Nov2016) ● California Governor Brown to Climate Scientists: "We will persevere" (Youtube AGU16) ● Barack Obama, The irreversible momentum of clean energy (Science 9 Jan2017) ● 630 companies and investors call on Trump to continue low carbon transition (Independent 10 Jan2017) ● Grassroots resistance and community organising growing Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  15. 15. Momentum After COP22 (3 of 4) China: China emerging as global climate leader. ● China clearly sees political opportunity for leadership on climate at global level (Source: Yale e360 21Nov2016) ● Rapidly expanding renewables to counter major air pollution problem. China Aims to Spend at Least $360 Billion on Renewable Energy by 2020. (New York Times 5Jan2017) ● China raises its low carbon ambitions in new 2020 targets - Methodical climate action in China’s Energy 13FYP (EcoBusiness 11 Jan2017) ● Two years ago China didn't have any green bonds. In 2016, 41 percent of these securities were issued there. (Bloomberg 7 Sep2016) ● Fujian launches China’s eighth pilot carbon market December 2016 (Carbonpulse), ahead of rollout of national Emissions Trading scheme in 2017. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  16. 16. Momentum After COP22 (4 of 4) India: ● India silent on Trump victory at COP22 (Climate Home 18Nov2016) ● India plans 57% of electricity capacity from non-fossil fuels by 2027, exceeding their Paris promise 40% by 2030. Effectively makes 50GW of planned coal plant projects stranded. (Source: The Guardian 22Dec2016) ● World’s largest solar PV farm with 648 MW capacity opens in Kamuthi, Tamil Nadu (Electrik 30Nov2016) ● The next big climate battle starts in India (Source: Bloomberg 23Dec2016) Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  17. 17. Negotiations Moving Forward COP23 (2017) ● Will be under Fiji presidency but held in Bonn, Germany. ● Likely to focus on technical details, includes SBSTA advice on how IPCC can inform global stocktake, and Adaptation institutional arrangement review. COP24 (2018) ● Will be in Poland. Milestone COP. ● Will have Paris Agreement rulebook to consider, ● Facilitative dialogue to take stock of collective efforts toward net zero. ● Consider IPCC special report on impacts of global warming of 1.5C. COP26 (2020) ● Countries to communicate/update NDC 9-12 months before the COP COP29 (2023) ● First global stocktake and every 5 years thereafter Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  18. 18. Reality has now superceeded the talks Saleemul Huq from Bangladesh said 9 November, after the US election result: “The reality of climate change now has superceeded the talks on climate change. The talks don’t matter anymore. It’s what you do in reality. “Countries are already moving forward for their own reasons, and that is a good thing. “One of the good things about the Paris Agreement is that Countries agreed to take action for their own good, not because someone was telling them what to do. If a country does not do it, that is up to that country, others are going to carry on doing it. “Right now, China matters much more than the United States. Where China goes, the rest of the world will go. “China has already decided they are going to be part of the solution; they are going to be a first mover into a post- fossilfuel era; they are investing heavily in non-fossil fuel energy; they are decelerating their fossil fuel investments even though they are sitting on huge amounts of coal. “They are not going to use that coal. “Where China goes, the rest of the world will go and Trump will follow.” Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eSuC2TIG2 Y Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland Photo: Saleemul Huq is a Senior Fellow with International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), an expert on the links between climate change and sustainable development
  19. 19. Mood at the end of COP22 ● Still strong momentum for climate action ● Determination to move forward. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  20. 20. My Role at COP22 with CAN My second COP. More involved with Climate Action Network in Marrakech than Paris. ● CAN strategy meeting before COP ● CAN daily meetings at COP ● CAN general assembly (Governance) ● CAN volunteer: Daily Fossil of the Day videographer, social media ● CAN volunteer: on ECO news editorial board ● CAN bunkers working group Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland Photo: At the CAN strategy meeting at Cady Ayaad University on Sunday prior to COP22 The Climate Action Network: brings together regional nodes of climate action organisations, including many grassroots and community based activist organisations like Climate Action Moreland, as well as major NGOs such as Greenpeace, Oxfam. It plays an important role in advocating for civil society at UN climate conferences in the negotiations.
  21. 21. My Role at COP22 – Australian observer ● Attended the 3 background briefings by Australian delegation ● Attended SBI multilateral assessment - Australia ● Attended opening plenary and high level COP plenary (national statements) ● Attended high level event on oceans at French Pavilion with Julie Bishop ● Miscellaneous Press conferences, side events, actions ● Attended civil society climate march and rally ● Produced 16 articles related to COP22 ● Published Photos: 236 of COP22, 179 of climate march (All Creative commons) ● 22 Youtube videos Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland Photo: Foreign Minister Julie Bishop signs Because the Ocean 2nd Declaration Photo: New found friends: Morocco, Australia, South Africa at climate march
  22. 22. Morocco mosques go green ● Six hundred “green mosques” to be created in Morocco by March 2019 ● a national consciousness- raising initiative that aims to speed the country’s journey to clean energy. ● Includes LED lighting, solar thermal water heaters and photovoltaic systems installed in 100 mosques by the end of 2016. Source: Guardian 5 Sep 2016 Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  23. 23. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland Morocco Renewables On a one day trip to Essaouira on the coast I saw the wind farm across the bay from this World Heritage Listed site. Morocco updated it’s NDC just before COP22. It is one of 5 countries that Climate Tracker lists as ‘sufficient’ for their climate policies.
  24. 24. Morocco Renewables After the conference I traveled over the Atlas Mountains to the Draa Valley and Zagora. At Ouarzazate I saw from a distance the solar power complex with Noor 1 already built, Noor 2 and 3 under construction, Noor 4 in planning. Noor 1: 160MW with 3 hrs storage Noor 2: 200MW with 7 hrs storage Noor 3: 150MW with 8 hrs storage Noor 4: 80MW solar PV farm Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  25. 25. Morocco Renewables The Berber desert camp near Zagora recharges LED lights by solar PV panels, to provide light for tourists at night. Solar supporting Camel trekking in the Sahara desert. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland
  26. 26. Reviewing Marrakech COP22 John Englart – Climate Action Moreland References: ● My COP22 Photos https://www.flickr.com/photos/takver/albums/72157675997722506 ● My COP22 articles http://takvera.blogspot.com/search/label/COP22 ● Thanks to CANA for selecting me for NGO observer accreditation

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