1. Gulf Coast Green
Symposium and Expo 2012
The Politics of Carbon Management:
Treaties, Programs, and Plans
Aaron Tuley, AICP, Manager
District No. 11
2.
3. Session Objectives:
The Politics of Carbon Management:
To provide and overview -
The evolution of International Accords and Agreements
The strategies behind National Commitments and Programs
Regional and State Programs
. . . to reduce emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations of CO2
4. We are faced with the fact, my
friends, that tomorrow is today.
We are confronted with the
fierce urgency of now.
In this unfolding conundrum of
life and history there is such a
thing as being too late. . .
Over the bleached bones and
jumbled residues of numerous
civilizations are written the
pathetic words: ‘Too late.’
Martin Luther King, Jr.
5. Scientists are forewarning –
450 ppm
- will trigger potentially irreversible glacial melt and sea level rise…
“out of humanity’s control.”
As of 12 April 2012 - 394.45 ppm
At the current population growth rate of 1.5%, atmospheric concentrations
of CO2 are increasing at a rate at approx. 2 ppm annually.
450 ppm in 2040
RUNAWAY CLIMATE
6. Including land-use change and deforestation, emissions reached:
2010 48 billion metric tons CO2e (36.7 BMTCO2)
5.9% increase over 2009
7. The Hottest Year Ever Measured
(Statistically tied with 2005)
48 billion metric tons of CO2e (UNEP, 2010)
Source: NASA/GISS
8. Scenario 4: Business as Usual
(No action taken)
132% Increase in Emissions by 2050
5.5 – 7.1˚C rise in global temperature by 2100
Scenario 3: Late and Slow Decline
Action Starts in 2030
76% Increase in Emissions by 2050 =
4 – 5.2˚C rise in global temperature by 2100
Scenario 2: Early but Slow Decline
Action Starts in 2010
Emissions return to 1990 levels by 2050 =
2.9 - 3.8˚C rise in global temperature by 2100
Scenario 1: Early and Rapid Decline
Action Starts in 2010
47% Decrease in Emissions =
2.1 - 2.8˚C rise in global temperature by 2100
9.
10. What are we doing about it?
Is there enough time to alter this trajectory?
Are we too late . . . ?
12. 1992 World Climate Conference
Rio Earth Summit
In response to the Brundtland Commission’s report, "Our Common Future,”
an international conference was convened address urgent problems of
environmental protection and socio-economic development.
Results
Three (3) United Nations Conventions were adopted:
•Convention on Biological Diversity
•Convention to Combat Desertification
•Framework Convention on Climate Change
Agenda 21
13. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Purpose –
1.To illuminate the fact that climate change is a problem.
2.Set lofty but specific, achievable goals.
3.Put the onus on developed countries to lead the way.
4.Direct new funds to climate change activities in developing countries.
5.Keep tabs on the problem and what's being done about it.
6.Formalize realistic consideration of adaptation to climate change.
14. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC –
“to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system."
further stating that -
“such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems
to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened,
and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.“
The UNFCCC entered into force on 21 March 1994.
Parties to the Convention – 192 signatory countries to the UNFCCC.
Parties agreed -
Annex I countries should reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.
(8 ppm in five years)
15. UNFCCC Key Principle –
Parties should act to protect the climate system, “on the basis of equality and in
accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities.”
This principle includes two fundamental elements:
1. The common responsibility of Parties to protect the environment, or parts of it,
at the national, regional and global levels.
2. The need to take into account the different circumstances, particularly each Party’s
contribution to the problem and its ability to prevent, reduce and control the threat
(makes the distinction between “developed” versus “developing” countries).
16. 1995
UNFCCC realized that emission reductions provisions in the Convention
were inadequate. They launched negotiations to strengthen the global response
to climate change, and, two years later, adopted the Kyoto Protocol.
17. Conferences of the Parties 1995 - 2012
1995 COP 1: Berlin, Germany 2004 COP 10: Buenos Aires, Argentina
1996 COP 2: Geneva, Switzerland 2005 COP 11: Montreal, Canada
1997 COP 3: Kyoto, Japan 2006 COP 12: Nairobi, Kenya
1998 COP 4: Buenos Aires, Argentina 2007 COP 13: Bali, Indonesia
1999 COP 5: Bonn, Germany 2008 COP 14: Poznan, Poland
2000 COP 6: The Hague, The Netherlands 2009 COP 15: Copenhagen, Denmark
2001 COP 7: Marrakech, Morocco 2010 COP 16: Cancun, Mexico
2002 COP 8: New Delhi, India 2011 COP 17: Durban, South Africa
2003 COP 9: Milan, Italy 2012 COP 18: Doha, Qatar
18. 1997
Conferences of the Parties 3
The Kyoto Climate Change Conference
The Kyoto Protocol (KP) was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and
entered into force on 16 February 2005.
The Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding agreement under which industrialized countries
will reduce GHG emissions by –
5% emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels over a five-year period (2008-2012).
(1990 = 350 ppm CO2)
Problem:
Developed countries came under a compliance of emitting GHGs under a cap,
while the developing countries were allowed to emit without a limit.
19. 1997
Conferences of the Parties 3
The Kyoto Climate Change Conference
Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures.
Kyoto Protocol offers three market-based mechanisms:
1
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
• Relationship between industrialized country and a developing country
• industrialized country with emission-reduction commitment (host)
v
implements an emission-reduction project
v
in a developing country.
• host country earns saleable, certified emission reduction (CER) credits, which can be
counted towards meeting Kyoto target.
20. 1997
Conferences of the Parties 3
The Kyoto Climate Change Conference
Kyoto Protocol’s market-based mechanisms:
2
Joint Implementation (JI)
• between two industrialized countries
•allows a country with an emission reduction commitment to earn emission reduction
units (ERUs) from an emission-reduction / removal project in another country, which
can be counted towards meeting its Kyoto target.
•underlying premise that it is cheaper to implement an emission reduction / removal
project in a country other than in the host country.
•offers Parties a flexible, cost-efficient means of fulfilling Kyoto commitments, while
the host Party benefits from foreign investment and technology transfer.
21. 1997
Conferences of the Parties 3
The Kyoto Climate Change Conference
Kyoto Protocol’s market-based mechanisms:
3
Emission Trading (ET)
•Under this scheme Parties would buy carbon credits developed by renewable
projects in developing countries, at a flexible market rate to offset the extra
amount to emissions.
22. European Union
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
ETS has been operational since 2005 and is the LARGEST
international scheme for the trading of GHG emission
allowances.
The EU ETS covers some 11,000 power stations and
industrial plants in 30 countries.
The GOAL of the EU ETS is to encourage capital investment
in low-carbon energy technologies and fuels.
The Kyoto Protocol requires the EU-15 countries reduce
their collective emissions to -
08% below 1990 levels between 2008-2012.
Emissions monitoring and projections show that the EU-15 has met this target.
Unilateral commitment, implemented through binding legislation, to cut emissions
by at least - 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. (500 MMTCO2e by 2020)
EU has offered to increase its emissions reduction to -
30% of 1990 levels by 2020,
on condition that other major emitting developed / developing countries commit to
do their fair share under a future global climate agreement.
23. 2009
Conferences of the Parties 15
The Copenhagen Climate Summit
Non-binding, Copenhagen Accord was drafted by the U.S. -
°
1. recognizes the scientific case for keeping temperature rises below 2°C, but
•does not contain a baseline for this target, and removes all benchmarks
and commitments for reduced emissions that would be necessary to achieve
the target (blessing and a curse).
2. Commits capital support for Developing Countries
•Green Climate Fund - $30 billion quick start funding ramping-up to $100 billion.
4. U.S. agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020,
42% by 2030 and 83% by 2050
2005 = 379.1 ppm CO2 (44.5 BMTCO2e)
Problems –
Non-binding, in that Parties did not sign-it and therefore did not agree to commit to it.
24. 2010
Conferences of the Parties 16
Cancun Climate Change Conference
COP-16 negotiations were commended by many as noticeably more transparent
and inclusive of all countries.
Cancun Agreements. Copenhagen Accord is ratified.
Parties agreed to –
•commit to a maximum temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-Industrial
levels, and to consider lowering that maximum to 1.5 degrees in the near future.
•to establish a Green Climate Fund to provide financing to projects, programs,
policies and other activities in developing countries via thematic funding windows;
25. - 56 BMTCO2
- 52 BMTCO2
Delta: 7 BMTCO2
- 45 BMTCO2
47% reductions beginning in 2010? Maybe 15-20% at most.
November 2011
The combined global effort to reduce emissions remains less
than half of what it needs to be to remain within a 2 degree C.
rise in temperature.
26. 2011
Conferences of the Parties 17
Durban Climate Change Conference
Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
1. Cooperation: Called for “the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their
participation in an effective and appropriate international response.”
• attempts to break down the divide between developed and developing countries
in order to embrace an inclusive, collective action approach.
2. Enforcement: Recognized the need to strengthen the multilateral, rules-based regime
through development of a “protocol,” with legal force under the Convention,
applicable to all Parties by 2015.
Second Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol
1. Governments of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol decided that a second commitment
period, from 2013 onwards, would seamlessly follow the end of the first commitment
period.
2. The length of the second commitment period is to be determined: either 5 or 8 years.
27. 2012
Conferences of the Parties 18
Qatar Climate Change Conference
Not South Korea?
Doha.
World must engage, not enrage, the Middle East and the Arab World.
CLIMATE VOTE PROJECT
Purpose: challenge worldwide governments at COP 18 to develop a comprehensive, legally
binding climate protection agreement for the time after 2012.
Objective: 10 million Facebook Users will add weight and coherence to this demand.
The Climate Vote Project demands implementation of the following points in this
successor agreement:
1. To ensure that global warming stays well below 2 degrees C., the industrialized
nations must commit themselves to far more drastic reductions in emissions than in
the first Kyoto period.
2. New agreement must include the U.S., which signed the first KP but did not ratify it.
3. Encourage India and China to take part with appropriate targets for Kyoto Phase Two.
28. Despite the U.S.’ weak response to international agreements . .
Don’t give up hope yet -
30. 2009 Executive Order 13514: Federal Leadership in
Energy, Environmental, and Economic Performance
GOAL:
Reduce TOTAL federal Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by –
28 % from a 2008 baseline by 2020.
Reduce indirect Scope 3 emissions by –
13 % from 2008 levels in the same time frame.
2008 Baseline Emissions: 123.2 MMTCO2e
66.4 are subject to emissions reduction targets
18.5 MMTCO2e
But –
By meeting these two goals, the federal government will, through 2020 –
•Eliminate 235 million barrels of oil
•Save $8-11 billion on avoided energy costs
31. 2008,
President Bush warned that U.S. emissions would continue to rise until 2025 . . .
Despite the Myth of U.S. Inaction -
Obama Commitment at 2009 COP 15 (Copenhagen):
17% Emissions Reductions below 2005 levels by 2020
U.S. Proposed Policies Potential Emissions Percentage below
and other Developments Reductions (MMT) 2005 levels
1 Stronger than expected recession:
2 Unexpectedly high oil prices
and low natural gas prices:
3 Ambitious new automobile
efficiency regulations:
4 Accelerated shutdowns of
coal-fired power plants
5 Policy action in California (AB 32) 91.0 – 130.0
and other states
7.5%
Official Estimate: U.S. energy-related emissions to be 7.5% below 2005 levels
by 2020.
32. Despite the Myth of U.S. Inaction -
Additional Economic / other Events Potential Emissions Percentage below
Reductions (MMT) 2005 levels
0 New Greenhouse Gas (GHG) 2.3%
regulations:
0 U.S. Congress extension of
expiring clean energy incentives,
tax credits and subsidies: 0.6%
10.4%
0 Clean Energy Standard (CES) 200
0 Subsidy for residential geothermal
heat pumps 50
15.5%
0 Faster than expected energy-related
technological development: 200
0 Continued lackluster growth
by U.S. economy: 183
0 Higher than expected oil prices
($200 / barrel by 2035): 127
18.9% - 24%
34. What Does America Need?
Abundant and free renewable resources
Technology
Materials
Workforce
Capital
Rapid mobilization experience
Political will?
35. Part of the challenge over these past three years has been that people’s
number-one priority is finding a job and paying the mortgage and dealing
with high gas prices. In that environment, it’s been easy for the other side
to pour millions of dollars into a campaign to debunk climate-change
science. I suspect that over the next six months, (climate change) is going
to be a debate that will become part of the campaign, and I will be very
clear in voicing my belief that we’re going to have to take further steps to
deal with climate change in a serious way. That there’s a way to do it that
is entirely compatible with strong economic growth and job creation – that
taking steps, for example, to retrofit buildings all across America with
existing technologies will reduce our power usage by 15 or 20 percent.
That’s an achievable goal, and we should be getting started now.
President Barack Obama
Rolling Stone interview (24 April 2012)
My view is that we don’t know what’s causing climate change on this planet.
And the idea of spending trillions and trillions of dollars to try to reduce CO2
emissions is not the right course for us.
Mitt Romney (October 2011)
36. 53% of Americans think the effects of Global warming
have already begun or will do so in a few years.
- Gallup
The Age of Fact-free Science
According to the Center for American Progress –
More than half of the Republicans in the House and three-
quarters of Republican senators now say that the threat
of global warming, as a man-made and highly threatening
phenomenon, is at best an exaggeration and at worst an
utter “hoax.”
- New York Times, 25 February 2011
37. The Science of Truthiness: Why Conservatives Deny Global Warming
38. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
(RGGI)
• Voluntary Program
• 10 Northeast states
• Power plants > 25 MW capacity
• Only Carbon Dioxide Maine
Vermont
RGGI Programs include: New Hampshire
Massachusetts
1. Goal
Rhode Island
• Reach 25-40% below 1990 emissions limits by 2010 Connecticut
• Achieved 7% below 1990 emissions by 2009 New York
Actions - New Jersey
Maryland
2. Clean up power plants (led to the first cap and trade program Delaware
in the U.S.)
3. Clean Cars Program – 30% reduction in per-mile emissions by 2016
4. Energy efficiency improvements
• Resulting in $2.1 billion reductions in consumer utility bills, despite rate increases,
because of the immediate impact of energy efficiency measures
5. Expanded renewable energy – 25 MW in 2000 > 1,671 MW in 2010
39. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
(RGGI)
Successes –
Between 2000 and 2009, the 10 northeastern states that participate in the Regional
Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)
1. cut per capita carbon dioxide emissions by 17.9%, 20% faster than the rest of the nation
2. grew the region’s gross product per capita 87% faster than the rest of the U.S.,
with GDP increasing by 8.4%,
increased economic output by $1.6 billion ($33 per person)
(Environment New Jersey Research & Policy Center).
Findings –
1. large reductions in global warming pollution are possible
2. innovative regional collaborations can help make them happen
3. emission reductions can be achieved side-by-side with economic growth.
So why did Governor Chris Christie withdraw the
State of New Jersey from RGGI?
40. State of California
Assembly Bill 32: Global Warming Solutions Act (2006)
Set the 2020 greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal into law.
Lead Agency: California Air Resources Board (ARB)
Provisions
1 Establish 1990 as baseline year
•2020 emissions forecast: 507 MMTCO2e
•1990 emissions verified at 427 MMTCO2e
80.0 MMTCO2e
2 Scoping Plan (approved December 2008)
Reduction Goals:
•Pavley (AB 1493) GHG emission reductions 26.1
•advanced clean cars 4.0
•Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) – 20% by 2020 21.3
•Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) – 33% 13.4
•Low Carbon Fuel Standard 15.0
•Energy Efficiency (building, appliance, CHP, etc.) 11.9
91.7 MMTCO2e
41. U.S. Conference of Mayors
Climate Protection Agreement
Under the Agreement, participating cities commit to take following three actions:
1) Strive to meet or beat the Kyoto Protocol targets in their own communities,
through actions ranging from anti-sprawl land-use policies to urban forest
restoration projects to public information campaigns;
2)Urge their state governments, and the federal government, to enact policies
and programs to meet or beat the GHG emission reduction target suggested
for the United States in the Kyoto Protocol –
7% reduction from 1990 levels by 2012
3)Urge the U.S. Congress to pass the bipartisan GHG reduction legislation, which
would establish a national emission trading system.
Status? Uncertain. Can’t be measured.
42. Addison
Texas Signatories: Arlington
Austin
Cities that have signed the Conference of Mayors Carollton
College Station
Climate Protection Agreement:
1,055 (as of 21 April 2012) Coppell
Corsicana
85 million U.S. citizens! Dallas
Denton
Edinburgh
El Paso
Euless
Fairview
Fort Worth
Frisco
Garland
Hurst
Hutto
Laguna Vista
Laredo
McKinney
Mount Vernon
Plano
Port Isabel
Richardson
San Antonio
Shavano Park
South Padre Island
Sugar Land
Texarcana
Westlake
