1.
Economic and Public
Policy Forum
21 March 2022
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2.
Economic and Public
Policy Forum
Chair – Ed Palmer
Deputy Chief Economist
Office for National Statistics
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3.
Agenda
09:30 – 09:35 Welcome and introduction – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist
09:35 – 09:45 State of the UK Economy – Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist
09:45 – 09:55 ONS response to the COVID-19 pandemic – Ellys Monahan
09:55 – 10:10 Two years on : How has society’s concept of “normal” daily life been
affected by coronavirus pandemic? – Katie Edser and Siobhan Palmer
10:10 – 10:25 Movements out of work for those aged 50 years since the start of the
coronavirus pandemic and their reasons for leaving employment – Abi
Casey and Rhian Murphy
10:25 – 10:40 Q&A
10:40 – 10:45 Closing remarks – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist
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4.
State of the UK Economy
Grant Fitzner
Chief Economist
Office for National Statistics
@GrantFitzner
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5.
UK growth and economic downturns
Source: ONS
Source: OBR, ONS
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Pre-Recession
Quarter
=
100
Quarters since pre-recession peak
GDP from pre-recession peak to recovery
Q2 1973 Q4 1979
Q2 1990 Q1 2008
Q4 2019
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Government
consumption
Private
consumption
Imports Business
investment
Exports
Cumulative change in UK expenditure
components, 2019 Q4 – 2021 Q4
Actual Forecast
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6.
Furlough scheme dampens unemployment rise
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
Months Since Output Peak
Unemployment rate during recessions
1973-1975 Recession 1980-1981 Recession
1990-1991 Recession 2008-2009 Recession
2020-2021 Recession
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
Employments on furlough
Source: HMRC Source: ONS
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7.
Inflation is now at near 30-year highs
Source: BICS, ONS
Source: ONS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jun 2020 Sep 2020 Dec 2020 Mar 2021 Jun 2021 Sep 2021 Dec 2021
Business’ reporting prices rising
more than normal
Prices bought, 10+ employees
Prices sold, 10+ employees
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1989
JAN
1992
JAN
1995
JAN
1998
JAN
2001
JAN
2004
JAN
2007
JAN
2010
JAN
2013
JAN
2016
JAN
2019
JAN
2022
JAN
UK Consumer Price Index, annual
change
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8.
Possible Russia-Ukraine impact on GDP, inflation
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim report March 2022
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9.
Russia & Ukraine are not major UK trading partners
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
53: Ukraine
12: Russia
5: Norway
4: Netherlands
3: United States*
2: Germany
1: China
UK Trading partners (Imports), 2021
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
[CELLRANGE
]
0 10 20 30 40 50
48: Ukraine
24: Russia
5: France
4: Ireland
3: Netherlands
2: Germany
1: United States*
UK Trading Partners, (Exports) 2021
* inc Puerto Rico
Source: ONS – UK Trade statistics, current prices, £ billion
* inc Puerto Rico
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10.
But they are important commodity producers
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim report March 2022
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11.
Two years on:
Reflecting on the ONS
response to COVID-19
Ellys Monahan
COVID-19 Rapid Response Group
Office for National Statistics
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12.
Conceptual and practical challenges
1. Closure of non-essential retail and
estimating consumer price inflation
2. Suspension of face-to-face
interviewing and impacts on
response rates to the Labour Force
Survey
3. Measurement of non-market output
4. Responding to new evidence gaps
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13.
New insights provided by surveys: business
Business Insights
and Conditions
Survey
(Business Impact of
COVID-19 Survey)
Launched 2 April
2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
Turnover has decreased Turnover has not been affected
Turnover has increased
% Financial performance: % of businesses currently trading,
weighted by count, June 2020 to February 2022
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14.
New insights provided by surveys: individuals
Opinions and
Lifestyle
Survey
Launched
9 April 2020
% of adults practising preventative measures to slow the spread of
coronavirus, Great Britain, January 2021 to March 2022
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15.
New insights provided by surveys: health
Coronavirus
(COVID-19)
Infection Survey
Launched 10 May
2020 (pilot)
Modelled daily % of population testing positive for coronavirus by
region, England, January to March 2022
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16.
Accelerated use of real time indicators: financial
transactions
UK spending on
debit and credit
cards: daily
CHAPS-based
indicators
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Aggregate Delayable Social Staple Work Related
Spending by consumption category series,
Index February 2020 = 100, a backward looking seven-day rolling average, non-
seasonally adjusted, nominal prices
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17.
Accelerated use of real time indicators: job
adverts
Adzuna:
volume of
online job
adverts
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Manufacturing Energy / oil & gas
Construction / trades Wholesale and retail
Transport / logistics / warehouse Travel / tourism
Total job adverts by Adzuna Category, UK, Index Feb 2020 avg = 100
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18.
Improved accessibility to data and analysis
• Dedicated ONS web-
page
• Enhanced data
visualisation capabilities
• New accessible
summaries and
roundups
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19.
Looking ahead: we will continue to…
• deliver timely and relevant statistics and analysis to
inform public and policy discussion
• pivot our rapid response surveys to capture insights on
other priority areas
• enhance our understanding by using real time indicators
• serve the public by ensuring our data are inclusive
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20.
Two years on: How has the
coronavirus (COVID-19)
pandemic changed
people's daily lives?
Katie Edser | Siobhan Palmer
Office for National Statistics
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21.
What we’re going to cover
• Background and focus of the piece
• Data sources used
• Key findings
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22.
Research question
It’s been two years since UK residents were
advised to limit social contact to curb the
spread of COVID-19.
With almost no formal restrictions on daily
life, how is the COVID-19 pandemic
currently affecting people’s attitudes and
behaviours?
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23.
Background
• Question added to the ONS’ Opinions and
Lifestyle Survey (OPN) – 16 to 27 Feb 2022
• Asked people about their current behaviours
relating to the pandemic.
• Deeper dive into “return to normal” question
• Presents differences in behaviours among
social groups
• Other data sources used to support OPN data
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24.
Data sources used
DfT – Transport
use during the
COVID-19
pandemic
Time Use
Survey
Opinions and
Lifestyle
Survey
Retail Sales
Index
Previous
analysis on
disability and
COVID-19
Previous
analysis of
COVID-19
preventative
measures
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25.
Return to normal
• In Feb 2022, Almost a third (32%)
thought it would take over a year
whilst 9% thought it had already
returned to normal.
• People who think it will take a year
or less for life to return to normal fell
considerably throughout 2021.
• The proportion of people reporting
that their life was already back to
normal rose to 9%, compared with
4% in late December 2021/early
January 2022.
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26.
Behaviours adopted because of COVID-19
The actions people most commonly
reported doing day to day because
of the pandemic were:
• frequent hand washing / using
hand gel (81%)
• wearing face coverings (76%),
• avoiding crowded places (57%)
and
• spending more time at home
(53%);
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27.
Disability
• Disabled people were more likely than
non-disabled people to feel that life
will never return to normal (16%
compared with 10%).
• Disabled people were also less likely
to think life had already returned to
normal (6% compared with 11%).
• Disabled people were more likely than
non-disabled people to:
• avoiding crowded places (67% vsh 54%)
• avoid close contact with those they do not live
with (57% vs 41%)
• spend more time at home (63% vs 49%)
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28.
Age
Younger age groups (16 to 24) were less
likely than the oldest age group (70+) to
report they were:
• avoiding crowded places (33% vs 71%)
• wearing face coverings (61% vs 85%)
• frequently using hand gel or hand washing
(69% vs 89%)
• avoiding close contact with those they do
not live with (19% vs 61%)
Almost one in six (15%) of those aged 16-24
years think their life has already returned to
normal; significantly higher than those aged
25-34 years (5%) and those aged 70+ (6%)
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29.
Sex
Women were more likely than men to:
• frequently use hand gel or wash hands
• open windows or doors in indoor
spaces
• avoid crowded places
• wear face coverings
• avoid public transport
• shop online more
• spend more time at home
Men and women’s attitudes towards the
return to normal were similar.
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30.
Ability to afford an unexpected expense
• Overall,14% of people said they
were spending more time outside,
but this fell to 10% among those
unable to afford an unexpected but
necessary expense of £850
• Those unable to afford an
unexpected expense were less likely
than those who could afford one to:
• walk or cycle more (11% vs 18%)
• work from home (13% vs23%).
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31.
Movements and reasons for
workers aged over 50 years
leaving employment
since the start of the
pandemic
Abi Casey | Rhian Murphy
Office for National Statistics
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32.
Those aged 50 and over saw the largest increase
of inactive people
• Overall economic inactivity
increased 522,000 persons
(Q4 2021 vs Q4 2019)
• Most (94%) of the increase
was because of those aged
50 and over
• The increase bucked a
historical trend of falling
inactivity rate in those 50 and
over
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33.
Professional occupations saw the largest increase
in movement to inactivity
• The number of those aged 50
to 70 moving from economic
activity to inactivity was 87,000
higher*
• Professional occupations, saw
the largest volume change
moving to economic inactivity
of 30,000
• Caring, leisure and other
service occupations saw the
largest increase in the
proportion, from 3.0% to 6.0%.
* Between Q2 to Q3 2021 and Q2 to Q3 2019
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34.
Full-time and male workers saw the largest increase
in movement to inactivity
Movements into economic inactivity have increased for:
Full-time workers Men
* Between Q2 to Q3 2021 and Q2 to Q3 2019
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35.
Reasons for workers aged
over 50 years leaving
employment since the start
of the coronavirus
pandemic
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36.
Background
• Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS) a rapid response
survey – quick turnaround to meet policy needs
• Survey conducted 8 to 13 February 2022
• Achieved sample 13,805 with 71% response rate
• Focus on those who left work since the start of
the pandemic and not returned as our ‘target
group’ of interest (14% of the sample)
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37.
Nearly half (47%) of adults* reported that they left
their job to retire from paid work
Reasons for leaving work among those in our target group
Great Britain, 8 to 13 February 2022
Source: Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS)
Among our target group:
• 7% left their job to retire
• 15% left because of the
coronavirus (COVID-19)
pandemic
• 13% left because of illness or
disability, and
• 11% left because they did not
want to work anymore
Note [1]: Categories ‘Other’, ‘Prefer not to say’ and ‘Don’t know’ have been excluded from
the chart [2]: Respondents could choose more than one option
* Target group population as base
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38.
Those aged 60 and over were twice as likely to
leave work for retirement than those under 60
Significant reasons for leaving work among those in our target group
Great Britain, 8 to 13 February 2022
Source: Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS)
Base: Adults in target group aged 50 to 70 years old in Great Britain
• Those aged 60+ twice as likely (56%)
to give retirement as the reason for
leaving work as 50-59 (28%)
• Adults aged in their 50s were more
likely to give other reasons for
leaving, such as:
• stress or mental health reasons (19%)
than those aged 60+ (5%),
• a change in lifestyle (14%) compared
with 7% for 60+, and
• because they did not feel valued in their
job (13%) than adults aged 60+ (6%)
Note [1]: Not all categories have been included in this chart
Note [2]: Respondents could choose more than one option
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39.
6 in 10 would not consider going back to paid work
Reasons given by those who would be encouraged to return to paid work and
had not considered returning to work in future among our target group
Great Britain, 8 to 13 February 2022
Source: Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS)
• Around 1 in 10 (10%) said they
would be encouraged if they
were able to work from home,
• 9% said they would be
encouraged for flexible working
hours and,
• 4% said they would be
encouraged if the job fits
around caring responsibilities
* Target group population as base
Note [1]: Categories ‘None of the above’ ‘Prefer not to say’ and ‘Don’t know’ have been
excluded from the chart and totals may not add to 100 as a result
Note [2]: Respondents could choose more than one option
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40.
Nearly 4 in 10 (39%) adults* would consider
returning to paid work in the future
Reasons given by those who said they were considering returning
to paid work in the future, among our target group
Great Britain, 8 to 13 February 2022
Source: Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS)
Among adults in our target group
who would consider returning to
work in future:
• Over half (54%) said they would if it was
for the social company or a job they
would enjoy
• Around a half (52%) said they would be
encouraged for the money
• Under a half (45%) said they would be
encouraged for a job that suited their
skills and experience
Note [1]: Respondents could choose more than one option
Note [2]: Categories ‘Don’t know’ and ‘prefer not to say’ have been excluded from the chart
* Target group population as base
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41.
The majority of adults would rather return to part-time
Source: Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS)
Base: Adults in target group aged 50 to 70 years old in Great Britain
Type of work adults who would consider returning to paid work or
are currently looking for work would like
Great Britain, 8 to 13 February 2022
Note [1]: Categories ‘Don’t know’ and ‘prefer not to say’ have been excluded from the chart
Among our target group:
• Those aged 60+ were more
likely to want to return to part-
time work (79% compared with
59% for those in their 50s).
• Adults aged 50 to 59 were
significantly more likely to want
to return to full-time work with
15% reporting this compared
with 3% for 60 and over
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42.
Motivations for returning to work
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43.
Key findings
• Movement to inactivity increased for those aged 50 to 70, with full time workers
and male workers seeing the largest increases
• Retirement was the most common reason for leaving work with flexible working
or working from home popular motivations to return
• Overall, those in our sample generally moved or stayed out of the job market
after the pandemic because of complex and interrelated factors, including being
unable to find a job, their age, ill health, caring for others, concerns about
catching COVID-19, and financial security (for example, from a pension or a
spouse's salary)
• Movements out of work for those aged over 50 years since the start of the coronavirus pandemic
• Reasons for workers aged over 50 years leaving employment since the start of the coronavirus pandemic
• Impact of coronavirus on people aged 50 to 70 years and their employment after the pandemic
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44.
Closing remarks
Ed Palmer
Deputy Chief Economist
Office for National Statistics
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45.
Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
• 23 March 2022: Prices theme day (Producer price inflation, Consumer Price inflation, Recent
drivers of UK Consumer Price Inflation)
• 28 March 2022: Household disposable income and inequality, UK financial year ending 2021
• 30 March 2022: Towns and travel to work area productivity
• 30 March 2022: Long term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2021
• 31 March 2022: Quarterly National Accounts theme day
• 4 April 2022: Natural capital UK extent and condition: 2021
• 6 April 2022: Attitudes towards COVID-19 among passengers travelling into and out of the
UK: September 2021 to February 2022
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website
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46.
Dates for your diary
• 24 March 2022 – ESCoE Economic Measurement webinar - Work2Vec: Measuring the Latent
Structure of the Labour Market
• 11 April 2022 – Economic Data Science Seminar Series – Dr Stephen Hansen,
Associate Professor of Economics, Imperial College London
• 25 April 2022 – ONS Economic Forum
• 27 April 2022 – Economic Statistics Working Group webinar on Real Time Indicators
• 16 May 2022 – ONS Economic Forum
• 24 May 2022 – Regional Economic Forum, Glasgow
• 25-27 May 2022 – ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement – University
of Strathclyde, Glasgow
Further details on the above events will be published at ons.gov.uk/economicevents
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47.
Dates for your diary
• 24 March 2022 – ESCoE Economic Measurement webinar - Work2Vec: Measuring the Latent
Structure of the Labour Market
• 11 April 2022 – Economic Data Science Seminar Series – Dr Stephen Hansen,
Associate Professor of Economics, Imperial College London
• 25 April 2022 – ONS Economic Forum
• 27 April 2022 - Economic Statistics Working Group webinar on Real Time Indicators
• 24 May 2022 – Regional Economic Forum, Glasgow
• 25-27 May 2022 – ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement – University
of Strathclyde, Glasgow
Further details on the above events will be published at ons.gov.uk/economicevents
slido #
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48.
Labour Market Statistics User Engagement
• ONS has an ambitious transformation programme to improve labour market statistics through
survey transformation and increased use of data from administrative and other sources
• As part of this, ONS has been developing a transformed version of the Labour Force Survey
using an online-first multimode collection approach
• A version of this online approach survey has been running “live” since March 2020 while being
further developed, including the addition of the ability to respond by telephone
• In the coming weeks we will be communicating more about the changes and the benefits
• As some changes may impact on users, we will be asking for feedback so that we can better
understand the impact and put mitigation in place and support users as much as we can
through the change
• A link to the materials and questions will be sent to you and we would welcome your feedback
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49.
Thank you for attending the
Economic Forum
You can keep up to date on all up coming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so
via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk