4. Armed conflict vs. order in international relations
Armed conflicts arise from various causes
International orders are created to prevent, resolve, or
contain conflicts
Rule-bound competition between interests?
Controlled conflicts?
5. Main models of international order:
Hegemonic order
Balance of power
Democratic peace
Network-based multipolar order
6. “Six clusters of threats” to peace and security in contemporary
world*
1. Socioeconomic threats, including
poverty
infectious disease
environmental degradation
2. Inter-state conflict
3. Internal conflict, including
Civil war
Genocide
Other large-scale atrocities
------------------------
*UN Secretary General’s report “In Larger Freedom”:
Report - Table of Contents ; UN Secretary-General’s High-level Panel’s
report “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility” :
Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel
7. 4. Proliferation and possible use of weapons of mass
destruction
nuclear
radiological
chemical
biological
5. Terrorism
6. Transnational organized crime
8. In contemporary world, it is often hard to draw a line
between international conflicts and internal conflicts within
nations – there is a tendency toward globalization of conflict
Internal conflicts are more likely to have international
implications
International developments tend to have more rapid and
significant impact on internal situations
Example: 4 levels of conflict in Afghanistan:
4 levels of conflict (Afghanistan as example):
Global – US and NATO vs. Al Qaeda and Taliban
Regional – interests of neighbouring states
National – Taliban vs. the Afghan Government, Pakistani
Taliban vs. the Pakistani Government
Local – opium industry, arms trade, ethnic conflicts
All 4 levels are closely interconnected
9. The tendency toward globalization of conflict has been
developing since the start of World War I in 1914
What made world wars possible:
19th century economic globalization led to growing
interconnectedness, integration of societies
Struggle for power within countries acquired international
dimensions
Availability of economic resources
Development of military technologies
The culture of war
New rationalizations of war
The idea of total war
12. World War I: 1914-1918
World War II: 1939-1945
The Cold War: 1946-1991
The Global War on Terror: 2001-?
13. World War I: 1914-1918
was a cumulative effect of:
- -Rivalries between states (Germany-Britain, France-
Germany, Russia-Austria, Germany-Russia, Russia-
Turkey, etc.)
- -Class conflicts within states
- -Nationalist struggles against empires
14. The war for power and influence within the global
system
Expected to be brief
The reality: a bloody 4-year stalemate
Ended by revolutions in Russia (1917) and Germany
(1918)
15 mln. deaths, incl. 9 mln. combat
The flu pandemic of 1918-1919: 20-40 mln. deaths: a
direct environmental effect of “the Great War”
27. World War I in retrospective – the start of a century of
global conflict
Read Eric Hobsbawm’s article “The Future of War and
Peace”
Eric Hobsbawm: The Future of War and Peace
A good reference library on World War I:
Trenches on the Web - Reference Library
See also this BBC site:
BBC - History - The Western Front, 1914 - 1918
Animation
28. THE WAR AS A REVOLUTIONARY FORCE
Results of the war:
-Collapse of 4 empires: Russian, Austro-Hungarian,
German, Turkish
-World capitalism severely undermined – North and
South (economically, politically, socially, ideologically)
-The rise of social protest and revolutionary
movements everywhere
32. The radical proposal for a new world order
The Peace Decree proclaimed by Russia’s new Soviet
government in November 1917:
1. Call for immediate democratic peace without any
territorial claims or indemnities
2. Right of all nations to self-determination
3. Willing to consider other terms proposed by other states
4. Immediate armistice for 3 months
5. Call to working people of the world to rise against “slavery
and exploitation of any kind”
Peace and revolution: were they compatible?
Also: a promise to conduct diplomacy openly, without secret
agreements with anyone
34. The liberal-democratic proposal for a new world order: US
President Wilson’s “14 points”, January 1918
- Open diplomacy, no secret treaties
- Absolute freedom of the seas
- Free trade
- Maximum arms reduction
- Right of nations to self-determination
- Creation of an international organization to keep peace
– League of Nations
THE KEY THEME:
“The principle of justice to all peoples and nationalities and
the right to live on equal terms of liberty and safety with
one another, whether they be strong or weak”
35. At the end of World War I, Soviet Russia and the United States
offered alternatives to the collapsed world order
Despite similarities, the two alternatives were fundamentally
incompatible:
US strove to preserve global capitalism through reform
Russia sought to help world revolution to destroy
capitalism and replace it with communism
Allies in World War I, Russia and America became enemies as
a result of the Russian revolution
36. US, Britain, France and Japan intervened in the
Russian Civil War on the side of the
counterrevolution
They sent troops to occupy areas of Russia in the
North and the Far East
The US refused to recognize the Soviet
Government until 1933
37. David Lloyd George,
British PM
George Clemenceau,
French President
Leaders of Britain and France stuck to the old rules
38. At the 1919 Paris Peace Conference, Britain and
France, most influential Western powers, were driven
by traditional power considerations
They insisted on severely punishing Germany
They sought to create a balance of power in Europe
which would not let Germany become strong again
They also sought to isolate Soviet Russia
They and other Europeans were sceptical of Wilson’s
grand design for democratic peace
The League of Nations, created at Paris, was rejected
by the US Congress
The world order created after World War I, was deeply
flawed: it contained the seeds of the next world war
40. World War II: 1939-1945
Sources:
Rivalries between Great Powers continued, no stable world
order
The ideological conflict between world capitalism and world
communism – a global civil war
The rise of the Soviet Union ideologically committed to
the destruction of capitalism
The rise of the Left in Europe and Asia, fears of new
revolutions
The Great Depression, 1929-1933, shattered the global
economy and exacerbated both international and class
conflicts
Rise of fascism as a force which destroys democracy to:
defeat the Left
reorganize states for global imperialist war
43. Hitler publicly and repeatedly pledged to destroy the Soviet
Union, billing himself as savior of the West from
communism
As a state committed to world revolution, Russia was
viewed as a threat by Western elites
The rise of fascism was partly a response to the threat –
and anticommunism was one of the motives of Western
appeasement of Hitler
Stalin saw the prospect of a new world war as an
opportunity for the spread of communism: the WWI
precedent
But ultimately, WWII was not about revolution: it was an
interstate conflict of a traditional kind, similar to WWII,
waged on a global scale
44. The geopolitical triangle: Germany, USSR, Western
democracies (WDs)
WDs hoped to channel Hitler’s aggression to the East,
toward conflict with Russia – reluctant to fight Germany
Hitler was determined to prevent WDs and USSR from
joining forces: beat them one by one
Stalin was determined to avoid war with Germany as long
as possible
1939: A divergence of interests between USSR and WDs
– and a convergence of interests between Germany and
USSR
The unexpected deal was logical – but only temporary
45. Moscow, August 23, 1939: German Foreign Minister Joachim
von Ribbentrop signs non-aggression pact with Russia
56. DIMENSIONS OF WORLD WAR TWO
Ideological:
Global Right (The Axis: Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain,
and smaller allies)
vs.
Global Left (The USSR and the international communist
movement)
vs.
Global Center (US, Britain, Nationalist China)
1939: Right and Left (Hitler and Stalin) make a deal,
liberal democracy the big loser; the Right and Center at
war
1941: The Right attacks both the Left and the US; a
Center-Left coalition is formed
1945: The Right is defeated by the Center-Left coalition;
the war’s aftermath gives a major boost to the global
Left; liberal internationalism becomes the blueprint of a
new world order
57. Geopolitical
The Axis was the challenger to the world order
The West was torn apart by the war
The Communist state, USSR, was in a position of a
status-quo power and a victim of aggression – not as a
revolutionary state
The battle for Russia was decisive for the defeat of the
Axis challenge
Russia’s decisive role entitled it to geopolitical gains from
common victory
58.
59. The turning point of WWII. February 1943: German troops surrender at Stalingrad, Russia
