PLANT PROTECTION is an important area of plant pathology. This technique helps a person to forecast disease in plants.

1. SAM HIGGINBOTTOM UNIVERSITY OF
AGRICULTURE, TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCES

2. TOPIC – DISEASE
FORECASTING
• SUBMITTED TO –
DR. [MRS.] SHASHI TIWARI
ASSISTANT PROFFESOR
DEPARTMENT OF PLANT
PATHOLOGY
SUBMITTED BY – KRITI
B.SC [HONS] HORTICULTURE
3RD SEMESTER
18BSHORH041

3. TABLE OF CONTENT
• INTRODUCTION
• DISEASE TRIANGE
• HISTORY
• PRE – REQUISITES
• PRINCIPLES
• USES
• CONCLUSION

4. INTRODUCTION
• Forecasting of plant diseases means predicting for the occurrence of
plant disease in a specified area ahead of time, so that suitable
measures can be undertaken in advance to avoid losses.
• Disease forecasts are predictions of probable outbreaks or increase in
the intensity of disease.
• It is used as an aid to the timely application of the chemicals.
• Disease forecasting methods are available for various plant diseases.

5. DISEASE CYCLE

6. HISTORY
• 1911 – One of the first attempts at predicting forecasting was made
by ‘Lutman’ who concluded that epidemics were favoured in wet and
cold conditions.
• 1926 – ‘ Van Everdingen ’ in Holland proposed the first model based
on four climatic conditions necessary for disease development :
i. Night tempreatures below dew point for at least 4 hours.
ii. Minimum temperature no lower than 10 degree celcius.
iii. cloud cover the following day.
iv. Rainfall in excess of 0.1 mm.

7. Contd..
• 1933 – In England, Beaumont and Stanilund emphasized the
importance of late blight occurrence.
• 1956 – Burke described the “ Irish Rule ” that describes the conditions
favourable for disease forecasting.
• 1959 – Simcast is derived from a stimulation model describing the
effects of climate, fungicide and host resistance on Phytopthora
Infestans.

8. PRE - REQUISITES
• The crop must be a cash crop. [ economic yield ]
• The disease must have potential to cause damage [ yield losses ]
• The disease should not be regular. [ uncertainty ]
• Effective and economic control known. [ options to growers ]
• Reliable means of communication with farmers.
• Farmers should be adaptive and have purchase power.

9. PRINCIPLES
• The nature of pathogen [ monocyclic or polycyclic ]
• Effects of the environment on stages of pathogen development.
• The response of the host to infection [ age related resistance ]
• Activities of the growers that affect the pathogen or the host.

10. USES
• Forecasting or assessment of disease important for crops production
management
 For timely plat protection measures :
Information wheather the disease status is expected to be below or
above the threshold level.
 Loss assessment :
Forecasting actual intensity of loss and yield reduction can be
predicted.

11. CONCLUSION
• A successful plant disease forecasting system is attributed to its
reliability, simplicity, economic importance of crop, usefulness,
availability of necessary information about the components of the
disease triangle, multipurpose applicability and cost effectiveness.
• Plant disease forecasting systems have been developed to help
growers to make important economic decisions about disease
management.