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Telecoms Europe 5G, November 2021.
Dr. Kim K Larsen, CTIO T-Mobile Netherlands.
5G STANDALONE WILL DELIVER! ...
BUT WHAT?
IS STANDALONE A GOOD PLACE TO BE?
(FOR 5G SA)
Timing
matters
“88% of mobile network operators (MNOs) are set
to deploy 5G standalone (SA) in the next two years”
(EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21).
“Nearly half of MNOs are planning
to deploy 5G SA within the next year”
(EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21.)
Needs to make 5G successful;
“real-time network, service and quality of experience intelligence”
“ability to monitor per-service and per-device performance”
“AI-driven anomaly and fault detection, as well as root cause analysis”
“monitoring of end-to-end network slices”
(EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21)
Virtual Reality
Mobile Games Augmented Reality
Network Slicing-based Services
NEVER EVER FORGET YOUR CUSTOMERS!
ASK … HOW WILL THEY BENEFIT?
SHOW
ME
THE
MONEY!
Source: https://techneconomyblog.com/2017/07/07/5g-economics-the-numbers-appendix-x/
(*) approx. the average personal space for close relationships across the world.
mMTC: massive machine type communications, uRLLC: ultra-reliable low-latency communications.
NSA
NSA
NSA
NSA
SA
SA
(≥ 1 device per m2 *)
(≥10 Mbps
per m2 *)
NSA
Should include
devices!
SA
SA
URLLC
URLLC
• 0.5 ms light travels (in fiber) ~ 135 km.
• <100 km to compute (fogging/edge compute).
• Decentralized compute & “intelligence”.
mMTC
NON-STANDALONE AND STANDALONE
QoS Flows
Slicing
…
Coverage
Data Rate
Latency
Data Density
Scale
Mobility
Energy…
Availability
Reliability
Factories
Time-critical Non-time critical Connected Goods
Coverage
Data Rate
Latency
Data Density
Scale
Mobility
Energy…
Availability
Reliability
Automotive
Autonomeous Assisted Share view
Coverage
Data Rate
Latency
Data Density
Scale
Mobility
Energy…
Availability
Reliability
Health
Surgery in Hospital Remote Monitoring Robotics
Coverage
Data Rate
Latency
Data Density
Scale
Mobility
Energy…
Availability
Reliability
Energy
Grid Access Grid Backhaul Grid Backbone
Note: Coverage at 0
= small cell coverage:
Illustrations
SA
SA
SA
SA SA
SA
SA
SA
SA
SA
SA
SA
SA
VERTICALS & THEIR 5G SA REQUIREMENTS
NSSF
(𝑆𝑀𝐹1, 𝑈𝑃𝐹1) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1 (𝑆𝑀𝐹2, 𝑈𝑃𝐹2) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹2 (𝑆𝑀𝐹3, 𝑈𝑃𝐹3) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹3
(𝑆𝑀𝐹2, 𝑈𝑃𝐹2) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1 (𝑆𝑀𝐹3, 𝑈𝑃𝐹3) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1
Illustration on network slicing
QoS Flows 𝑄𝐹𝐼1 𝑄𝐹𝐼2
𝑄𝐹𝐼3
Illustration QoS Flows
TIMING IS IMPORTANT.
5G
4G
3G
2G
Western Europe - Mobile subscriptions by technology
5G @ 50%
2024 ±1 yr
Source: own forecast model based on past technology diffusion trends for Western Europe. Benchmarked against
some WEU markets and other telco projections. (*) Network certification and SW upgrade required. Not all bands
supported by each 5G SA devices (currently).
5G SA
~ 58% commercial
devices support 5G SA*
(October 2021)
Availability of
C-band or lots
of under-utilized
spectrum
RRU / NR
RRU / NR
NR
NR
NR
RRU / NR
eNB / gNB
eNB / gNB
eNB / gNB
Fronthaul
Backhaul
gNB
Edge Compute Cloud
(Private?)
Core Telco Cloud
(Private?)
EPC
UPF*
Backbone
OSS & BSS
Automation & Orchestration
Subscriber Management
Control Plane
Internet
IT Telco Cloud
(telco function softwarization)
(Private / Public – Multi-cloud / Hyper-scalers)
CRM Fulfilment Assurance
Billing Etc…
ONAP
Telco Automation
CI/CD
CN Automation
EPC MME AMF* SMF*
NSSF* NEF NRF
HSS UDR PCRF
UDM AUSF PCF
Etc …
Etc…
Etc…
5G 4G
THE 5G NETWORK VIEW.
Illustration
Transformation
≤ 10 Gbps
per User
€€€
+
Time
AAS
mMiMo
Multi-freq.
AAS
mMiMo
Multi-freq.
(*) ingredients for a network slice.
NEW-IT AS ROLE MODEL FOR NG-NT.
OUR T-MOBILE NL IT CLOUD JOURNEY.
Cloud First Strategy
• Scalability, Stability & Tooling.
• Leverage larger industry
developments (hyperscalers).
• Start with Lift-&-Shift, then
transform to Cloud Native.
Agile Operating Model
• Faster time-to-market.
• Increased productivity.
• DevOps framework.
• Superior stability and quality
@ better ITR.
Target Sourcing Model
• High degree of alignment of
shared business &
operational KPIs.
• Outcome driven via function
point costing.
• ITR reductions.
Quality Focus
• Quality first objective for full
delivery chain.
• ITR ambitions shall not be
used to compromise
quality.
• Uncompromising quality.
ITR: IT total cost to Revenue.
ECONOMICAL EXPECTATIONS
5+%
3.5%
BiC ~ 3.8%
Legacy → Lift & shift cloud.
+0.8%
+0.4%
→ cloud native.
IT Cloudification Journey
from an ITR perspective
Stage 1 - Foundational
• ~100% agile/devops.
• 90+% cloudification (lift & shift).
• Decom legacy after lift & shift.
• Leap-frogged quality & scalability.
• Public cloud strategy.
Stage 2 – Cloud Native
• Transforming to cloud native.
Stage 1
Stage 2
~
4+%
3.4%
BiC ~ 2.8% (Greenfield)
+0.6%
Legacy Core → 5G SA
5G Cloudification Journey
from an NTR perspective
Stage 1
Stage 2
7 years 7 years
Stage 1 - Foundational
• 5GC implementation (cloud native).
• Telco lift & shift from legacy.
• Legacy remains for max. 5 years.
• Multiple cores overlap.
Stage 2 – Cloud Native
• Transforming to cloud native.
• Only 4G & 5G.
• NSA & SA co-exist.
IT NT
Illustration (WIP)
ITR: IT total cost to Revenue, NTR: NT total cost to Revenue.
Anomaly Detection.
Incident “awareness”
Self-restoration/healing.
Change-management.
Network Management
RT Resource Management.
Self-optimization.
Intent based configs.
Congestion management.
Network Optimization
Anomaly Detection.
Pro-active (“RT”) UE
Management.
Closed-loop Customer UE
Management & Operations.
User Experience (UE)
milliseconds - minutes milliseconds - month milliseconds - hour
→ zero-human-touch → zero-human-touch → zero-human-touch
5G SA FULFILMENT & ASSURANCE
NSA vs SA
balance is very important
spectrum portfolio & economics
Do not expect a great
business case!
complexity & economics
5GC will be deployed
timing matters! … not being first!
SA is not a question of
if but when.
timing more important than first!
Much higher degree of
network automation
with cloud native implementation
Hugely scalable &
higher stability.
leapfrog customer experience
WHAT WE WILL NOT GET … IS LATENCY-FREE 5G
EVEN WITH 5G SA – DESPITE THE CLAIMS!
Time Critical Communications
THANK YOU!
Acknowledgement
Many thanks to many industry & corporate colleagues who have contributed with
valuable insights, discussions & comments throughout this work. In particular
thanks to inspirational talks with Richard Marijs on the immediate value of 5G SA
(among many things 5G) and Han van Bussel for support in sorting out the terminal
ecosystem for 5G SA.
Last but not least, thanks to my wife Eva Varadi for her patience during this work.
Contact:
Email: kim.larsen@t-mobile.nl
Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen
Blogs: www.aistrategyblog.com & www.techneconomyblog.com
Twitter: @KimKLarsen

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5G Standalone Will Deliver! - But What?

  • 1. Telecoms Europe 5G, November 2021. Dr. Kim K Larsen, CTIO T-Mobile Netherlands. 5G STANDALONE WILL DELIVER! ... BUT WHAT?
  • 2. IS STANDALONE A GOOD PLACE TO BE? (FOR 5G SA) Timing matters “88% of mobile network operators (MNOs) are set to deploy 5G standalone (SA) in the next two years” (EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21). “Nearly half of MNOs are planning to deploy 5G SA within the next year” (EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21.) Needs to make 5G successful; “real-time network, service and quality of experience intelligence” “ability to monitor per-service and per-device performance” “AI-driven anomaly and fault detection, as well as root cause analysis” “monitoring of end-to-end network slices” (EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21)
  • 3. Virtual Reality Mobile Games Augmented Reality Network Slicing-based Services
  • 4. NEVER EVER FORGET YOUR CUSTOMERS! ASK … HOW WILL THEY BENEFIT?
  • 6. Source: https://techneconomyblog.com/2017/07/07/5g-economics-the-numbers-appendix-x/ (*) approx. the average personal space for close relationships across the world. mMTC: massive machine type communications, uRLLC: ultra-reliable low-latency communications. NSA NSA NSA NSA SA SA (≥ 1 device per m2 *) (≥10 Mbps per m2 *) NSA Should include devices! SA SA URLLC URLLC • 0.5 ms light travels (in fiber) ~ 135 km. • <100 km to compute (fogging/edge compute). • Decentralized compute & “intelligence”. mMTC NON-STANDALONE AND STANDALONE QoS Flows Slicing …
  • 7. Coverage Data Rate Latency Data Density Scale Mobility Energy… Availability Reliability Factories Time-critical Non-time critical Connected Goods Coverage Data Rate Latency Data Density Scale Mobility Energy… Availability Reliability Automotive Autonomeous Assisted Share view Coverage Data Rate Latency Data Density Scale Mobility Energy… Availability Reliability Health Surgery in Hospital Remote Monitoring Robotics Coverage Data Rate Latency Data Density Scale Mobility Energy… Availability Reliability Energy Grid Access Grid Backhaul Grid Backbone Note: Coverage at 0 = small cell coverage: Illustrations SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA VERTICALS & THEIR 5G SA REQUIREMENTS NSSF (𝑆𝑀𝐹1, 𝑈𝑃𝐹1) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1 (𝑆𝑀𝐹2, 𝑈𝑃𝐹2) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹2 (𝑆𝑀𝐹3, 𝑈𝑃𝐹3) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹3 (𝑆𝑀𝐹2, 𝑈𝑃𝐹2) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1 (𝑆𝑀𝐹3, 𝑈𝑃𝐹3) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1 Illustration on network slicing QoS Flows 𝑄𝐹𝐼1 𝑄𝐹𝐼2 𝑄𝐹𝐼3 Illustration QoS Flows
  • 8. TIMING IS IMPORTANT. 5G 4G 3G 2G Western Europe - Mobile subscriptions by technology 5G @ 50% 2024 ±1 yr Source: own forecast model based on past technology diffusion trends for Western Europe. Benchmarked against some WEU markets and other telco projections. (*) Network certification and SW upgrade required. Not all bands supported by each 5G SA devices (currently). 5G SA ~ 58% commercial devices support 5G SA* (October 2021) Availability of C-band or lots of under-utilized spectrum
  • 9. RRU / NR RRU / NR NR NR NR RRU / NR eNB / gNB eNB / gNB eNB / gNB Fronthaul Backhaul gNB Edge Compute Cloud (Private?) Core Telco Cloud (Private?) EPC UPF* Backbone OSS & BSS Automation & Orchestration Subscriber Management Control Plane Internet IT Telco Cloud (telco function softwarization) (Private / Public – Multi-cloud / Hyper-scalers) CRM Fulfilment Assurance Billing Etc… ONAP Telco Automation CI/CD CN Automation EPC MME AMF* SMF* NSSF* NEF NRF HSS UDR PCRF UDM AUSF PCF Etc … Etc… Etc… 5G 4G THE 5G NETWORK VIEW. Illustration Transformation ≤ 10 Gbps per User €€€ + Time AAS mMiMo Multi-freq. AAS mMiMo Multi-freq. (*) ingredients for a network slice.
  • 10.
  • 11. NEW-IT AS ROLE MODEL FOR NG-NT. OUR T-MOBILE NL IT CLOUD JOURNEY. Cloud First Strategy • Scalability, Stability & Tooling. • Leverage larger industry developments (hyperscalers). • Start with Lift-&-Shift, then transform to Cloud Native. Agile Operating Model • Faster time-to-market. • Increased productivity. • DevOps framework. • Superior stability and quality @ better ITR. Target Sourcing Model • High degree of alignment of shared business & operational KPIs. • Outcome driven via function point costing. • ITR reductions. Quality Focus • Quality first objective for full delivery chain. • ITR ambitions shall not be used to compromise quality. • Uncompromising quality. ITR: IT total cost to Revenue.
  • 12. ECONOMICAL EXPECTATIONS 5+% 3.5% BiC ~ 3.8% Legacy → Lift & shift cloud. +0.8% +0.4% → cloud native. IT Cloudification Journey from an ITR perspective Stage 1 - Foundational • ~100% agile/devops. • 90+% cloudification (lift & shift). • Decom legacy after lift & shift. • Leap-frogged quality & scalability. • Public cloud strategy. Stage 2 – Cloud Native • Transforming to cloud native. Stage 1 Stage 2 ~ 4+% 3.4% BiC ~ 2.8% (Greenfield) +0.6% Legacy Core → 5G SA 5G Cloudification Journey from an NTR perspective Stage 1 Stage 2 7 years 7 years Stage 1 - Foundational • 5GC implementation (cloud native). • Telco lift & shift from legacy. • Legacy remains for max. 5 years. • Multiple cores overlap. Stage 2 – Cloud Native • Transforming to cloud native. • Only 4G & 5G. • NSA & SA co-exist. IT NT Illustration (WIP) ITR: IT total cost to Revenue, NTR: NT total cost to Revenue.
  • 13.
  • 14. Anomaly Detection. Incident “awareness” Self-restoration/healing. Change-management. Network Management RT Resource Management. Self-optimization. Intent based configs. Congestion management. Network Optimization Anomaly Detection. Pro-active (“RT”) UE Management. Closed-loop Customer UE Management & Operations. User Experience (UE) milliseconds - minutes milliseconds - month milliseconds - hour → zero-human-touch → zero-human-touch → zero-human-touch 5G SA FULFILMENT & ASSURANCE
  • 15. NSA vs SA balance is very important spectrum portfolio & economics Do not expect a great business case! complexity & economics 5GC will be deployed timing matters! … not being first! SA is not a question of if but when. timing more important than first! Much higher degree of network automation with cloud native implementation Hugely scalable & higher stability. leapfrog customer experience
  • 16. WHAT WE WILL NOT GET … IS LATENCY-FREE 5G EVEN WITH 5G SA – DESPITE THE CLAIMS! Time Critical Communications
  • 17. THANK YOU! Acknowledgement Many thanks to many industry & corporate colleagues who have contributed with valuable insights, discussions & comments throughout this work. In particular thanks to inspirational talks with Richard Marijs on the immediate value of 5G SA (among many things 5G) and Han van Bussel for support in sorting out the terminal ecosystem for 5G SA. Last but not least, thanks to my wife Eva Varadi for her patience during this work. Contact: Email: kim.larsen@t-mobile.nl Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen Blogs: www.aistrategyblog.com & www.techneconomyblog.com Twitter: @KimKLarsen