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5G Standalone Will Deliver! - But What?

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5G Standalone Will Deliver! - But What?

Keynote presentation at Day 2 Telecoms Europe 5G Conference. Describing, my view of the 5G standalone deployment dynamics, best timing and what benefits to customers and ourselves (MNOs) to expect. I genuinely believe that to have a successful 5G Core SA deployment we need to learn from New IT cloud native transformation journeys.

Keynote presentation at Day 2 Telecoms Europe 5G Conference. Describing, my view of the 5G standalone deployment dynamics, best timing and what benefits to customers and ourselves (MNOs) to expect. I genuinely believe that to have a successful 5G Core SA deployment we need to learn from New IT cloud native transformation journeys.

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5G Standalone Will Deliver! - But What?

  1. 1. Telecoms Europe 5G, November 2021. Dr. Kim K Larsen, CTIO T-Mobile Netherlands. 5G STANDALONE WILL DELIVER! ... BUT WHAT?
  2. 2. IS STANDALONE A GOOD PLACE TO BE? (FOR 5G SA) Timing matters “88% of mobile network operators (MNOs) are set to deploy 5G standalone (SA) in the next two years” (EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21). “Nearly half of MNOs are planning to deploy 5G SA within the next year” (EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21.) Needs to make 5G successful; “real-time network, service and quality of experience intelligence” “ability to monitor per-service and per-device performance” “AI-driven anomaly and fault detection, as well as root cause analysis” “monitoring of end-to-end network slices” (EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21)
  3. 3. Virtual Reality Mobile Games Augmented Reality Network Slicing-based Services
  4. 4. NEVER EVER FORGET YOUR CUSTOMERS! ASK … HOW WILL THEY BENEFIT?
  5. 5. SHOW ME THE MONEY!
  6. 6. Source: https://techneconomyblog.com/2017/07/07/5g-economics-the-numbers-appendix-x/ (*) approx. the average personal space for close relationships across the world. mMTC: massive machine type communications, uRLLC: ultra-reliable low-latency communications. NSA NSA NSA NSA SA SA (≥ 1 device per m2 *) (≥10 Mbps per m2 *) NSA Should include devices! SA SA URLLC URLLC • 0.5 ms light travels (in fiber) ~ 135 km. • <100 km to compute (fogging/edge compute). • Decentralized compute & “intelligence”. mMTC NON-STANDALONE AND STANDALONE QoS Flows Slicing …
  7. 7. Coverage Data Rate Latency Data Density Scale Mobility Energy… Availability Reliability Factories Time-critical Non-time critical Connected Goods Coverage Data Rate Latency Data Density Scale Mobility Energy… Availability Reliability Automotive Autonomeous Assisted Share view Coverage Data Rate Latency Data Density Scale Mobility Energy… Availability Reliability Health Surgery in Hospital Remote Monitoring Robotics Coverage Data Rate Latency Data Density Scale Mobility Energy… Availability Reliability Energy Grid Access Grid Backhaul Grid Backbone Note: Coverage at 0 = small cell coverage: Illustrations SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA SA VERTICALS & THEIR 5G SA REQUIREMENTS NSSF (𝑆𝑀𝐹1, 𝑈𝑃𝐹1) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1 (𝑆𝑀𝐹2, 𝑈𝑃𝐹2) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹2 (𝑆𝑀𝐹3, 𝑈𝑃𝐹3) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹3 (𝑆𝑀𝐹2, 𝑈𝑃𝐹2) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1 (𝑆𝑀𝐹3, 𝑈𝑃𝐹3) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1 Illustration on network slicing QoS Flows 𝑄𝐹𝐼1 𝑄𝐹𝐼2 𝑄𝐹𝐼3 Illustration QoS Flows
  8. 8. TIMING IS IMPORTANT. 5G 4G 3G 2G Western Europe - Mobile subscriptions by technology 5G @ 50% 2024 ±1 yr Source: own forecast model based on past technology diffusion trends for Western Europe. Benchmarked against some WEU markets and other telco projections. (*) Network certification and SW upgrade required. Not all bands supported by each 5G SA devices (currently). 5G SA ~ 58% commercial devices support 5G SA* (October 2021) Availability of C-band or lots of under-utilized spectrum
  9. 9. RRU / NR RRU / NR NR NR NR RRU / NR eNB / gNB eNB / gNB eNB / gNB Fronthaul Backhaul gNB Edge Compute Cloud (Private?) Core Telco Cloud (Private?) EPC UPF* Backbone OSS & BSS Automation & Orchestration Subscriber Management Control Plane Internet IT Telco Cloud (telco function softwarization) (Private / Public – Multi-cloud / Hyper-scalers) CRM Fulfilment Assurance Billing Etc… ONAP Telco Automation CI/CD CN Automation EPC MME AMF* SMF* NSSF* NEF NRF HSS UDR PCRF UDM AUSF PCF Etc … Etc… Etc… 5G 4G THE 5G NETWORK VIEW. Illustration Transformation ≤ 10 Gbps per User €€€ + Time AAS mMiMo Multi-freq. AAS mMiMo Multi-freq. (*) ingredients for a network slice.
  10. 10. NEW-IT AS ROLE MODEL FOR NG-NT. OUR T-MOBILE NL IT CLOUD JOURNEY. Cloud First Strategy • Scalability, Stability & Tooling. • Leverage larger industry developments (hyperscalers). • Start with Lift-&-Shift, then transform to Cloud Native. Agile Operating Model • Faster time-to-market. • Increased productivity. • DevOps framework. • Superior stability and quality @ better ITR. Target Sourcing Model • High degree of alignment of shared business & operational KPIs. • Outcome driven via function point costing. • ITR reductions. Quality Focus • Quality first objective for full delivery chain. • ITR ambitions shall not be used to compromise quality. • Uncompromising quality. ITR: IT total cost to Revenue.
  11. 11. ECONOMICAL EXPECTATIONS 5+% 3.5% BiC ~ 3.8% Legacy → Lift & shift cloud. +0.8% +0.4% → cloud native. IT Cloudification Journey from an ITR perspective Stage 1 - Foundational • ~100% agile/devops. • 90+% cloudification (lift & shift). • Decom legacy after lift & shift. • Leap-frogged quality & scalability. • Public cloud strategy. Stage 2 – Cloud Native • Transforming to cloud native. Stage 1 Stage 2 ~ 4+% 3.4% BiC ~ 2.8% (Greenfield) +0.6% Legacy Core → 5G SA 5G Cloudification Journey from an NTR perspective Stage 1 Stage 2 7 years 7 years Stage 1 - Foundational • 5GC implementation (cloud native). • Telco lift & shift from legacy. • Legacy remains for max. 5 years. • Multiple cores overlap. Stage 2 – Cloud Native • Transforming to cloud native. • Only 4G & 5G. • NSA & SA co-exist. IT NT Illustration (WIP) ITR: IT total cost to Revenue, NTR: NT total cost to Revenue.
  12. 12. Anomaly Detection. Incident “awareness” Self-restoration/healing. Change-management. Network Management RT Resource Management. Self-optimization. Intent based configs. Congestion management. Network Optimization Anomaly Detection. Pro-active (“RT”) UE Management. Closed-loop Customer UE Management & Operations. User Experience (UE) milliseconds - minutes milliseconds - month milliseconds - hour → zero-human-touch → zero-human-touch → zero-human-touch 5G SA FULFILMENT & ASSURANCE
  13. 13. NSA vs SA balance is very important spectrum portfolio & economics Do not expect a great business case! complexity & economics 5GC will be deployed timing matters! … not being first! SA is not a question of if but when. timing more important than first! Much higher degree of network automation with cloud native implementation Hugely scalable & higher stability. leapfrog customer experience
  14. 14. WHAT WE WILL NOT GET … IS LATENCY-FREE 5G EVEN WITH 5G SA – DESPITE THE CLAIMS! Time Critical Communications
  15. 15. THANK YOU! Acknowledgement Many thanks to many industry & corporate colleagues who have contributed with valuable insights, discussions & comments throughout this work. In particular thanks to inspirational talks with Richard Marijs on the immediate value of 5G SA (among many things 5G) and Han van Bussel for support in sorting out the terminal ecosystem for 5G SA. Last but not least, thanks to my wife Eva Varadi for her patience during this work. Contact: Email: kim.larsen@t-mobile.nl Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen Blogs: www.aistrategyblog.com & www.techneconomyblog.com Twitter: @KimKLarsen

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