Keynote presentation at Day 2 Telecoms Europe 5G Conference. Describing, my view of the 5G standalone deployment dynamics, best timing and what benefits to customers and ourselves (MNOs) to expect. I genuinely believe that to have a successful 5G Core SA deployment we need to learn from New IT cloud native transformation journeys.
1. Telecoms Europe 5G, November 2021.
Dr. Kim K Larsen, CTIO T-Mobile Netherlands.
5G STANDALONE WILL DELIVER! ...
BUT WHAT?
2. IS STANDALONE A GOOD PLACE TO BE?
(FOR 5G SA)
Timing
matters
“88% of mobile network operators (MNOs) are set
to deploy 5G standalone (SA) in the next two years”
(EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21).
“Nearly half of MNOs are planning
to deploy 5G SA within the next year”
(EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21.)
Needs to make 5G successful;
“real-time network, service and quality of experience intelligence”
“ability to monitor per-service and per-device performance”
“AI-driven anomaly and fault detection, as well as root cause analysis”
“monitoring of end-to-end network slices”
(EXFO NA & EU Survey, Oct.’21)
6. Source: https://techneconomyblog.com/2017/07/07/5g-economics-the-numbers-appendix-x/
(*) approx. the average personal space for close relationships across the world.
mMTC: massive machine type communications, uRLLC: ultra-reliable low-latency communications.
NSA
NSA
NSA
NSA
SA
SA
(≥ 1 device per m2 *)
(≥10 Mbps
per m2 *)
NSA
Should include
devices!
SA
SA
URLLC
URLLC
• 0.5 ms light travels (in fiber) ~ 135 km.
• <100 km to compute (fogging/edge compute).
• Decentralized compute & “intelligence”.
mMTC
NON-STANDALONE AND STANDALONE
QoS Flows
Slicing
…
7. Coverage
Data Rate
Latency
Data Density
Scale
Mobility
Energy…
Availability
Reliability
Factories
Time-critical Non-time critical Connected Goods
Coverage
Data Rate
Latency
Data Density
Scale
Mobility
Energy…
Availability
Reliability
Automotive
Autonomeous Assisted Share view
Coverage
Data Rate
Latency
Data Density
Scale
Mobility
Energy…
Availability
Reliability
Health
Surgery in Hospital Remote Monitoring Robotics
Coverage
Data Rate
Latency
Data Density
Scale
Mobility
Energy…
Availability
Reliability
Energy
Grid Access Grid Backhaul Grid Backbone
Note: Coverage at 0
= small cell coverage:
Illustrations
SA
SA
SA
SA SA
SA
SA
SA
SA
SA
SA
SA
SA
VERTICALS & THEIR 5G SA REQUIREMENTS
NSSF
(𝑆𝑀𝐹1, 𝑈𝑃𝐹1) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1 (𝑆𝑀𝐹2, 𝑈𝑃𝐹2) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹2 (𝑆𝑀𝐹3, 𝑈𝑃𝐹3) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹3
(𝑆𝑀𝐹2, 𝑈𝑃𝐹2) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1 (𝑆𝑀𝐹3, 𝑈𝑃𝐹3) ∈ 𝐴𝑀𝐹1
Illustration on network slicing
QoS Flows 𝑄𝐹𝐼1 𝑄𝐹𝐼2
𝑄𝐹𝐼3
Illustration QoS Flows
8. TIMING IS IMPORTANT.
5G
4G
3G
2G
Western Europe - Mobile subscriptions by technology
5G @ 50%
2024 ±1 yr
Source: own forecast model based on past technology diffusion trends for Western Europe. Benchmarked against
some WEU markets and other telco projections. (*) Network certification and SW upgrade required. Not all bands
supported by each 5G SA devices (currently).
5G SA
~ 58% commercial
devices support 5G SA*
(October 2021)
Availability of
C-band or lots
of under-utilized
spectrum
9. RRU / NR
RRU / NR
NR
NR
NR
RRU / NR
eNB / gNB
eNB / gNB
eNB / gNB
Fronthaul
Backhaul
gNB
Edge Compute Cloud
(Private?)
Core Telco Cloud
(Private?)
EPC
UPF*
Backbone
OSS & BSS
Automation & Orchestration
Subscriber Management
Control Plane
Internet
IT Telco Cloud
(telco function softwarization)
(Private / Public – Multi-cloud / Hyper-scalers)
CRM Fulfilment Assurance
Billing Etc…
ONAP
Telco Automation
CI/CD
CN Automation
EPC MME AMF* SMF*
NSSF* NEF NRF
HSS UDR PCRF
UDM AUSF PCF
Etc …
Etc…
Etc…
5G 4G
THE 5G NETWORK VIEW.
Illustration
Transformation
≤ 10 Gbps
per User
€€€
+
Time
AAS
mMiMo
Multi-freq.
AAS
mMiMo
Multi-freq.
(*) ingredients for a network slice.
10.
11. NEW-IT AS ROLE MODEL FOR NG-NT.
OUR T-MOBILE NL IT CLOUD JOURNEY.
Cloud First Strategy
• Scalability, Stability & Tooling.
• Leverage larger industry
developments (hyperscalers).
• Start with Lift-&-Shift, then
transform to Cloud Native.
Agile Operating Model
• Faster time-to-market.
• Increased productivity.
• DevOps framework.
• Superior stability and quality
@ better ITR.
Target Sourcing Model
• High degree of alignment of
shared business &
operational KPIs.
• Outcome driven via function
point costing.
• ITR reductions.
Quality Focus
• Quality first objective for full
delivery chain.
• ITR ambitions shall not be
used to compromise
quality.
• Uncompromising quality.
ITR: IT total cost to Revenue.
12. ECONOMICAL EXPECTATIONS
5+%
3.5%
BiC ~ 3.8%
Legacy → Lift & shift cloud.
+0.8%
+0.4%
→ cloud native.
IT Cloudification Journey
from an ITR perspective
Stage 1 - Foundational
• ~100% agile/devops.
• 90+% cloudification (lift & shift).
• Decom legacy after lift & shift.
• Leap-frogged quality & scalability.
• Public cloud strategy.
Stage 2 – Cloud Native
• Transforming to cloud native.
Stage 1
Stage 2
~
4+%
3.4%
BiC ~ 2.8% (Greenfield)
+0.6%
Legacy Core → 5G SA
5G Cloudification Journey
from an NTR perspective
Stage 1
Stage 2
7 years 7 years
Stage 1 - Foundational
• 5GC implementation (cloud native).
• Telco lift & shift from legacy.
• Legacy remains for max. 5 years.
• Multiple cores overlap.
Stage 2 – Cloud Native
• Transforming to cloud native.
• Only 4G & 5G.
• NSA & SA co-exist.
IT NT
Illustration (WIP)
ITR: IT total cost to Revenue, NTR: NT total cost to Revenue.
15. NSA vs SA
balance is very important
spectrum portfolio & economics
Do not expect a great
business case!
complexity & economics
5GC will be deployed
timing matters! … not being first!
SA is not a question of
if but when.
timing more important than first!
Much higher degree of
network automation
with cloud native implementation
Hugely scalable &
higher stability.
leapfrog customer experience
16. WHAT WE WILL NOT GET … IS LATENCY-FREE 5G
EVEN WITH 5G SA – DESPITE THE CLAIMS!
Time Critical Communications
17. THANK YOU!
Acknowledgement
Many thanks to many industry & corporate colleagues who have contributed with
valuable insights, discussions & comments throughout this work. In particular
thanks to inspirational talks with Richard Marijs on the immediate value of 5G SA
(among many things 5G) and Han van Bussel for support in sorting out the terminal
ecosystem for 5G SA.
Last but not least, thanks to my wife Eva Varadi for her patience during this work.
Contact:
Email: kim.larsen@t-mobile.nl
Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen
Blogs: www.aistrategyblog.com & www.techneconomyblog.com
Twitter: @KimKLarsen