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Greater Brisbane transport demand model
- 1. 1 | Greater Brisbane Transport Demand Model (BNE Model) An Overview Benjamin H Pool For: AITPM National Conference, Melbourne, August 2017
- 2. 2 |2 | Our values, our diversity
- 3. 3 |3 | Queensland Government’s objectives for the community Advance Queensland
- 4. 4 | Our strategic plan
- 5. 5 |5 | About us… 3,029 bridges 20 ports 3,260 taxis licensed 5m vehicles registered 3.5m drivers licensed 256,151 recreational vessel registrations 997,289 boat licenses 180m in SEQ 12.1m outside SEQ trips taken annually on bus, rail, ferry and light rail 33,343km state-controlled roads As at 30 June 2016 we manage: As at 30 June 2016: As at 30 June 2016 there were: 3.63m customers served face-to-face at 59 Customer Service Centres 2.5m go cards in use Over 490,000 passengers travel on the south-east Queensland network on average each day Our customers conducted 6.68m online services Creating a single integrated transport network accessible to everyone AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 6. 6 |6 | • Demand • Network • Sub Models • Calibration Validation Greater Brisbane Transport Demand Model Persons, Purpose Choice Activity / Access Choice Available Facilities (Network, Services, Policy) Suitable for Use • Determined by Individuals • Influenced by Facilities AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 7. 7 |7 | • Gravity models have fewer parameters & tend to consider only “how much” Form: Discrete Choice vs Gravity $ $ $ • Discrete Choice models have a high level of complexity and consider choices that are different or unique from each other. Discrete choice models are developed to also consider, “which one” across a range of variables AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 8. 8 |8 | Contrast: BNE vs. BSTM-MM Converge to zonal demand by period More full use of HTS Finer person/purpose segmentation Discrete choice form provides sensitivity Time, Distance, Cost Peak & Period spreading Internally consistent Converge to daily assignment road statistic Less full use of HTS Aggregate form reduces segmentation Singular gravity form is insensitive Generalised cost No time choice Prone to externalities AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 9. 9 |9 | Demand Segments • 8 person types by 5 purposes • Informed by network conditions • Singly constrained • NHB trips reference home based trip leg • Adjustment for under- reporting (discretionary) State School High School University Blue Collar Worker White Collar Worker Adult 18-54 Adult 55-74 Adult 75+ Home to Primary Primary to Home Home to Secondary Secondary to Home Non-Home based Other Home AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 10. 10 |10 | Demography • Household based to Person-based • SA1 Zones • Zone consistency (in/out, land use, greenfield development) • Futures Demography defined by TMR • Informed by ABS Census & QGSO (Queensland Government Statistics Office) MANY MORE dwellings to 2041 AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 11. 11 |11 | Networks • Assign informs Demand model – Time, Distance, Cost • Facilities, lanes & bendiness • Active modes, on & off road • Light commercial vehicles (LCV) • Network futures defined by TMR QTRIP, TIPPS, financial constraints S0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 km AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 12. 12 |12 | Volume Delay Functions • Modified BPR Volume Delay Function (VDF) • Considers link end control: Freeflow, Giveway, Signal • Multiple (capacity based) VDF values for each control type • Give-way and signal inherent delay • All VDF attributes internal to model supports model being internally consistent AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 13. 13 |13 | Parking Model & Toll Model • Logit Toll Model determines toll or no-toll routing choice • Time savings, average (zonal) income and toll cost • Logit attributes internal to model – supports model being internally consistent • Two car classes; do (ct) or do’t (c) use toll • Logit Parking Model - focus on Central Traffic Area • Capacity constrained across 4 parking types • Remote park and walk to destination P AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 14. 14 |14 | Public Transport • PnR Lot capacity formal & informal parking • PnR parking period accumulations • KnR no capacity constraint • Fares - concessions, peak/offpeak • PT Patronage calibrated to screenlines, board/alight AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 15. 15 |15 | Demand Model Process At the highest model level, a daily composite utility of travel can be calculated Logsums up Composite utilities from nested logit formulation estimated at each stage and fed upward Probabilities down Demand estimates made using these composite utilities feeding down AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 16. 16 |16 | Overall Process Assign to convergence Time, Distance & Cost Skims Seed matrices Mode Choice, Time of Day, Destination Choice Generation Demand Trip Tables Convergence Check Trip Tables Previous vs Current FEED BACK Big Loop New Demand matrix via variable blending to ¾ previous ¼ current convergence not met convergence met Small Loop New Demand matrix via variable blending to ¾ previous ¼ current not met convergence Convergence Check Trip Tables Previous vs Current Mode Choice, Time of Day Demand Trip Tables Assign to Convergence Time, Distance & Cost Skims convergence met or loop count Post Processing Final Assignment Mode Choice, Time of Day, Destination Choice Generation Assign to convergence Time, Distance & Cost Skims AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 17. 17 |17 | Convergence Criteria • Demand Based • <1% mean absolute (mabs) difference in car trip demand matrices between iterations on an zonal basis for all scenarios • Variable blending: an efficient convergence process • Final loop • Demand in is consistent with demand out Both practically and theoretically sound Internally consistent AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 18. 18 |18 | Assignment Calibration • Screenline r2 & Y values Road and PT R² (>0.85) y (0.9x - 1.1x) R² (>0.85) y (0.9x - 1.1x) AM6 0.976 0.911 Y 0.848 0.932 N AM7 0.983 0.999 Y 0.86 1.006 Y AM8 0.985 1.172 N 0.87 1.153 N IP 0.982 0.899 Y 0.889 0.945 Y PM3 0.983 0.921 Y 0.899 0.941 Y PM4 0.984 0.928 Y 0.9 0.956 Y PM5 0.983 1.066 Y 0.884 1.076 Y RD 0.984 0.902 Y 0.9 0.966 Y Daily (aggregated)0.989 0.95 Y 0.94 1.001 Y Road Screenline Counts Road Individual Counts R² (>0.85) y (0.9x - 1.1x) R² (>0.85) y (0.9x - 1.1x) AM6 0.962 2.718 N 0.884 2.433 N AM7 0.992 1.508 N 0.905 1.495 N AM8 0.956 0.799 N 0.924 0.832 N AM peak Total0.985 1.284 N 0.92 1.235 N IP 0.993 0.757 N 0.957 0.657 N PM3 0.951 1.565 N 0.915 1.108 N PM4 0.975 1.183 N 0.893 0.972 Y PM5 0.972 1.086 Y 0.926 1.808 N PM peak Total0.973 1.218 N 0.924 1.322 N RD 0.871 0.661 N 0.933 0.88 N Daily (aggregated)0.99 1.143 N 0.943 1.044 Y Rail Screenline Counts Bus Screenline Counts AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 19. 19 |19 | Road Screenline Calibration • Road Screenlines AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 20. 20 |20 | • PT Screenlines AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017 PT Screenline Calibration
- 21. 21 |21 | Segment Calibration • Observed vs Modelled Demand Comparison AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 22. 22 |22 | Demand based criteria Calibration and Validation is sound Evidence based futures Internally consistent Soft Launch participants satisfied First Discrete Choice transport demand model in Australia Suitable for use? AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 23. 23 |23 | Greater Brisbane Transport Demand Model Questions? AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 24. 24 |24 | VDF Plot form • Modified BPR form of Volume Delay Function AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
- 25. 25 |25 | Trip Distance by Segment • Observed vs Modelled Trip Distance by Segment Secondary Student Home to School 75+ Home to Other Adult Worker WC Home to Work Adult Worker BC Home to Work AITPM 2017 National Conference, Melbourne | 17 August 2017
Editor's Notes
- Values In 2013 the Queensland Public Service launched new values to help revitalise the public service as seen on the slides These are customers first, ideas into action, unleash potential, be courageous and empower people. At TMR we are working hard to embed these in our culture and we are already working more collaboratively, more productively and smarter. Diversity TMR have a responsibility to ensure our employee pool reflects and better serves the diverse nature of the Queensland community. Diversity brings different perspectives into the workplace. An inclusive workplace ensures employees feel confident and supported to contribute and participate fully in the workforce. Diverse and inclusive teams: generate new ideas challenge the status-quo introduce fresh ways of looking at problems offer a wider range of potential solutions.
- Queensland Government has four objectives for the community: Creating jobs and a diverse economy Protecting the environment Delivering quality frontline services Building safe, caring and connected communities TMR has a key role to play in ensuring we are achieving these objectives and as such, our priorities are aligned to do so. Advance Queensland The Queensland Government is investing $405 million over four years to create the knowledge-based jobs of the future – this is Advance Queensland. Advance Queensland is a comprehensive suite of programs, based on international evidence of ‘what works’, and is designed to: create the knowledge-based jobs of the future, drive productivity improvements and build on our natural advantages. It will help position the state as an attractive investment destination with a strong innovation and entrepreneurial culture.
- OUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES TMR has responsibility for shaping the transport system, building the network, managing use of the system and providing passenger services for Queenslanders. We need to deliver our responsibilities in the right way. Our priorities are: Our customers Innovation Liveable regions and active cities Regulation Sustainable funding Contemporary workforce. In the short and long-term we continue to deliver new and upgraded infrastructure under a substantial capital program.