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Question 1
“Artifacts” in the Scrum terminology are the equivalent of
deliverables in other project management approaches. Which
one of the following is not an artifact created with Scrum?
a.
Daily Scrum log
b.
Burndown chart
c.
Product backlog
d.
Sprint backlog
Question 2
Projects cost money. The expense is spread over the entire
project life cycle. Spending on which one of the following is
most likely to lower the life cycle cost of the project?
a.
In defining user requirements accurately
b.
In procuring the latest development tools
c.
In conducting extensive quality control
d.
In implementing the change requests
Question 3
Projects have many requirements and it is difficult to ensure
that every requirement has been implemented successfully.
Which of the following tools will make it easier to do this?
a.
Requirements documentation
b.
Requirements management plan
c.
Requirements traceability matrix
d.
Project scope statement
Question 4
Developing a good work breakdown structure (WBS) is a
challenging task. A set of good principles are available to aid in
developing a good WBS with a corresponding dictionary. Which
one of the following does not belong to this set?
a.
Project managers should develop the WBS alone before sharing
with other project team members
b.
In the WBS a unit of work should be represented only once
c.
Each WBS item must be described fully in the WBS dictionary
d.
Only one team member will be responsible for a WBS item
Question 5
You are managing a project in which a few deadlines have been
missed. Now, you are under pressure to get the project back on
track to finish by the scheduled end date. You find that it is
possible to fast track some of the activities. What does this
mean?
a.
Do some activities in parallel when they were originally
planned to be sequential
b.
Add more resources to some activities to complete them sooner
c.
Remove some of the activities in the critical path
d.
Outsource some of the activities to experts
Question 6
You have been asked to manage a product development project.
Which of the following costs cannot be a cost of this project?
a.
Labor
b.
Advertisement
c.
Electricity
d.
Equipment
Question 7
Organizations take various approaches for the selection of
projects. One such approach is to act on an impetus. Which one
of the following is not an impetus for project selection?
a.
Situations that have the potential to limit the growth of the
organization
b.
Situations that have the potential to improve the growth of the
organization
c.
Situations that are compatible with the project manager’s
experience
d.
Situations that are imposed on the organization by a regulatory
authority
Question 8
A project has accurate cost estimates. It is still important to
prepare a project budget. Which one of the following is not a
reason for creating the project budget?
a.
To create a cost baseline
b.
To have a more accurate project cost
c.
To evaluate project progress
d.
To understand cash flow requirements
Question 9
The responsibility of dealing with project change requests falls
on the change control board (CCB). Which one of the following
is not a primary function of the CCB?
a.
Train the project team to control change requests
b.
Issue guidelines on how to present change requests
c.
Assess the change requests that have been presented
d.
Oversee the implementation of approved change requests
Question 10
A project manager is putting together the project team. Of the 5
project management process groups which one does this activity
belong to?
a.
Initiating
b.
Executing
c.
Planning
d.
Monitoring and controlling
Question 11
Project cost management encompasses four processes that help
keep the project costs within an approved budget. In project
cost management which of the following tasks must a project
manager perform first?
a.
Prepare the basis of estimates
b.
Prepare the cost baseline
c.
Prepare the cost management plan
d.
Prepare the cost forecast
Question 12
Project scope management encompasses the processes used in
and the results delivered by a project. It creates a common
expectation among the stakeholders on what the project will
deliver and how the project team will work to produce those
results. Which of the following is not within project scope
management?
a.
Determining how the project’s requirements will be managed
b.
Estimating the costs of the project’s requirements
c.
Dividing the project requirements into tasks for the project team
d.
Controlling changes to the project requirements
Question 13
Good decisions depend on availability of correct information.
The project manager must take steps to ensure the accuracy of
financial data. Which of the following is not the responsibility
of the project manager in this regard?
a.
Confirm team members are providing facts
b.
Use the correct systems to record the costs
c.
Update the financial data on schedule
d.
Link data between project management software and main
accounting software
Question 14
Which one of the following is true about the activity-on-arrow
(AOA) approach to creating a project network diagram?
a.
Bursts occur when multiple activities are followed by a single
activity
b.
Only activities related to deliverables should be included
c.
No arrows should cross one another
d.
All arrowheads should face to the left
Question 15
Project management standards describe what should be done.
Methodologies describe how the work should be performed.
Which methodology is a project manager in the United Kingdom
likely to adopt?
a.
Agile methods
b.
Rational Unified Process (RUP) framework
c.
PRojects IN Controlled Environments (PRINCE2)
d.
Six Sigma methodologies
Question 16
Due to an unprecedented weather situation some of the
equipment used in your project have been damaged. How will
you get the funds to repair or replace the damaged equipment?
a.
By modifying the budget
b.
By using the contingency reserves
c.
By using the management reserves
d.
By communicating with the sponsor
Question 17
Stakeholders are the people involved in or affected by project
activities. Who is the stakeholder that initiates, directs and
funds a project?
a.
Project sponsor
b.
CEO
c.
Top management
d.
Project steering committee
Question 18
You have calculated the following three values for a project
task: Earned Value (EV) is $8,000, Planned Value (PV) is
$10,000 and Actual Cost (AC) is $7,000. Which of the
following is true of the project task status?
a.
Over budget, behind schedule
b.
Over budget, ahead of schedule
c.
Under budget, behind schedule
d.
Under budget, ahead of schedule
Question 19
Interface management, an integral part of project integration
management, deals with the exchanges between various
stakeholders of a project. The number of interfaces is
exponentially related to the number of stakeholders in a project
thereby increasing the complexity of project management.
Which of the following should a project manager do to have
good interface management?
a.
Limit the number of project stakeholders
b.
Regularly meet and update project stakeholders
c.
Organize the project stakeholders in distinct groups that meet
only with each other
d.
Identify key project stakeholders that require interactions
Question 20
Gantt charts are used widely to display planned and actual
project schedules. What is the main advantage of this tool?
a.
Shows relationships between tasks
b.
Shows dependencies of tasks
c.
Shows resource requirements of tasks
d.
Shows task schedules in a standard format
Question 21
Implementing projects in a planned and phased manner will
bolster its chances of success. A project life cycle is a
sequential arrangement of project phases such as concept,
development, implementation and close-out. Which one of the
following is usually true about the initial phase of a project life
cycle?
a.
Level of uncertainty is lowest
b.
Cost of major changes are highest
c.
Project requirements are fully known
d.
Resource needs are lowest
Question 22
Your organization is preparing the budget for the next three
years. You and the rest of the project managers have been asked
to provide cost estimates for the projects that could be initiated
2 years later. What type of cost estimate should you prepare?
a.
Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) estimate
b.
Budgetary estimate
c.
Definitive estimate
d.
Analogous estimate
Question 23
At initiation, requirements for complex and innovative projects
may be difficult to define in detail. An agile development
method called Scrum is suitable for completing such projects.
According to the Scrum framework, what happens during sprint
planning?
a.
A subset of requirements are chosen for implementation
b.
A prioritized list of requirements are created
c.
Progress is assessed everyday
d.
A review of the work completed
Question 24
Your organization’s revenues are 10 million and expenses are 9
million. As part of the project selection committee which one of
the following projects do you determine will increase the profit
margin the most?
a.
A project that increases the revenue to 11 million and expenses
to 10 million
b.
A project that increases the revenue to 10.5 million and
expenses to 9.5 million
c.
A project that decreases revenue to 9.5 million and expenses to
8.5 million
d.
A project that decreases revenue to 9 million and expenses to 8
million
Question 25
Costs can be classified into multiple categories. For which one
of the following cost categories will a project manager find it
difficult to get a precise value?
a.
Tangible costs
b.
Intangible costs
c.
Indirect costs
d.
Sunk costs
Question 26
Your project budget has allocated $10,000 for an equipment.
However, at the time of purchase you find out that the
equipment is $10,500. You are confident that you can proceed
with the purchase because the variance is less than the project’s
_________________ of 8%.
a.
Cost variance
b.
Contingency reserve
c.
Cash flow forecast
d.
Control threshold
Question 27
Your organizational guidelines specify that the required rate of
return for internal infrastructure upgrades is 25%. You have
evaluated the costs of a potential infrastructure upgrade project
to be 120,000. Which of the following estimated benefits will
provide a Return on Investment (ROI) that exactly meets the
minimum required by the organizational guideline?
a.
125,000
b.
175,000
c.
96,000
d.
150,000
Question 28
Excellent project managers excel at using a systems approach.
Systems management deals with the business, technological,
and organizational concerns related to creating, caring, and
changing a system. From a systems management perspective,
which one of the following is a business concern?
a.
Specifications
b.
Suppliers
c.
Costs
d.
Training
Question 29
At its current stage, the Earned Value (EV) of a project is
$50,000 and the Actual Cost (AC) is $55,000. The project has
been budgeted $100,000. What is the estimated cost of
completing the project based on the performance until now?
a.
$90,000
b.
$95,000
c.
$105,000
d.
$110,000
Question 30
You have the responsibility of managing a new project that your
organization does not have any experience on. In order to create
the work breakdown structure (WBS) you decided that you want
to unleash your team’s creative thoughts. Which of the
following approach is suitable for this?
a.
Analogy approach
b.
Top-down approach
c.
Bottom-up approach
d.
Mind mapping approach
Question 31
Across the planet, many organizations rely on Earned Value
Management (EVM) to make good decisions on projects. Which
one of the following does EVM rely upon?
a.
Latest project management software
b.
Good estimates of project costs
c.
Calculation skills of project team members
d.
Availability of time to obtain accurate project costs
Question 32
Within an organization, a Project Management Office (PMO) is
responsible for coordinating all the project management
functions. Which one of the following is a likely responsibility
of the PMO?
a.
Hire people to staff projects
b.
Provide project methodologies, templates, tools and standards
c.
Select the projects that fit the strategic direction of the
organization
d.
Manage a group of related projects
Question 33
Earned Value Management (EVM) is a widely used, powerful
cost control tool. However, not every organization uses EVM.
Which of the following is a reason for organizations to not
adopt EVM?
a.
Lack of good project plans
b.
Complexity of EVM
c.
Insufficient knowledge of EVM
d.
Availability of simpler tools
Question 34
During the planning processes of project time management an
activity list is created in conjunction with activity attributes.
Which one of the following will not be found in the activity
attributes?
a.
Predecessor
b.
Person responsible
c.
Constraints
d.
Imposed dates
Question 35
A kick-off meeting is the most suitable tool to get new projects
started well. Which one of the following is not a purpose of the
kick-off meeting?
a.
Understand the project goals
b.
Understand the plans for the future of the project
c.
Understand the stakeholders of the project
d.
Understand the business case of the project
MAT540 Homework
Week 2
Page 1 of 4
MAT540
Week 2 Homework
Chapter 12
1. A local real estate investor in Orlando is considering three
alternative investments; a motel, a
restaurant, or a theater. Profits from the motel or restaurant will
be affected by the availability of
gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theater will
be relatively stable under any
conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss
that could result from each
investment:
Investment
Weather Conditions
Shortage Stable Supply Surplus
Motel $-7,500 $12,000 $23,000
Restaurant 3000 7,000 6,500
Theater 5000 6,000 4,000
Determine the best investment, using the following decision
criteria.
a. Maximax
b. Maximin
c. Minimax regret
d. Hurwicz (α = 0.4)
e. Equal likelihood
2. A concessions manager at the Tech versus A&M football
game must decide whether to have the
vendors sell sun visors or umbrellas. There is a 35% chance of
rain, a 25% chance of overcast skies,
and a 40% chance of sunshine, according to the weather forecast
in college junction, where the
game is to be held. The manager estimates that the following
profits will result from each decision,
given each set of weather conditions:
MAT540 Homework
Week 2
Page 2 of 4
Decision
Weather Conditions
Rain
0.35
Overcast
0.25
Sunshine
0.40
Sun visors $-400 $-200 $1,500
Umbrellas 2,100 0 -800
a. Compute the expected value for each decision and select the
best one.
b. Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected
opportunity loss for each
decision.
3. Place-Plus, a real estate development firm, is considering
several alternative development projects.
These include building and leasing an office park, purchasing a
parcel of land and building an
office building to rent, buying and leasing a warehouse,
building a strip mall, and selling
condominiums. The financial success of these projects depends
on interest rate movement in the
next 5 years. The various development projects and their 5- year
financial return (in $1,000,000s)
given that interest rates will decline, remain stable, or increase,
are in the following payoff table.
Place-Plus real estate development firm has hired an economist
to assign a probability to each
direction interest rates may take over the next 5 years. The
economist has determined that there is a
0.45 probability that interest rates will decline, a 0.35
probability that rates will remain stable, and a
0.2 probability that rates will increase.
a. Using expected value, determine the best project.
b. Determine the expected value of perfect information.
Project
Interest Rate
Decline Stable Increase
Office park $0.4 $1.55 $3.5
Office building 2.5 1.8 2.75
Warehouse 1.7 1.45 1.5
Mall 0.8 2.3 3.5
Condominiums 3.2 1.5 0.5
MAT540 Homework
Week 2
Page 3 of 4
4. The director of career advising at Orange Community College
wants to use decision analysis to
provide information to help students decide which 2-year degree
program they should pursue. The
director has set up the following payoff table for six of the most
popular and successful degree
programs at OCC that shows the estimated 5-Year gross income
($) from each degree for four
future economic conditions:
Degree Program
Economic Conditions
Recession Average Good Robust
Graphic design 150,000 175,000 220,000 200,000
Nursing 160,000 180,000 205,000 215,000
Real estate 125,000 165,000 220,000 210,000
Medical technology 135,000 180,000 210,000 270,000
Culinary technology 110,000 145,000 235,000 205,000
Computer information
technology
130,000 150,000 190,000 245,000
Determine the best degree program in terms of projected
income, using the following decision criteria:
a. Maximax
b. Maximin
c. Equal likelihood
d. Hurwicz (α=0.4)
5. Construct a decision tree for the following decision situation
and indicate the best decision.
Fenton and Farrah Friendly, husband-and-wife car dealers, are
soon going to open a new dealership.
They have three offers: from a foreign compact car company,
from a U.S. producer of full-sized
cars, and from a truck company. The success of each type of
dealership will depend on how much
gasoline is going to be available during the next few years. The
profit from each type of dealership,
given the availability of gas, is shown in the following payoff
table:
MAT540 Homework
Week 2
Page 4 of 4
Dealership
Gasoline Availability
Shortage
0.7
Surplus
0.3
Compact cars $25,000 $150,000
Full-sized cars -90,000 650,000
Trucks 125,000 170,000
Decision Tree diagram to complete:
1
2
3
4
Compact cars
Full-sized cars
Trucks
Shortage 0.7
Surplus 0.3
Shortage 0.7
Surplus 0.3
Surplus 0.3
Shortage 0.7
$250,000
$150,00
0
-$90,000
$650,000
$125,000
$170,000

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Question 1 Artifacts” in the Scrum terminology are the equiva.docx

  • 1. Question 1 “Artifacts” in the Scrum terminology are the equivalent of deliverables in other project management approaches. Which one of the following is not an artifact created with Scrum? a. Daily Scrum log b. Burndown chart c. Product backlog d. Sprint backlog Question 2 Projects cost money. The expense is spread over the entire project life cycle. Spending on which one of the following is most likely to lower the life cycle cost of the project? a. In defining user requirements accurately b. In procuring the latest development tools c. In conducting extensive quality control d. In implementing the change requests
  • 2. Question 3 Projects have many requirements and it is difficult to ensure that every requirement has been implemented successfully. Which of the following tools will make it easier to do this? a. Requirements documentation b. Requirements management plan c. Requirements traceability matrix d. Project scope statement Question 4 Developing a good work breakdown structure (WBS) is a challenging task. A set of good principles are available to aid in developing a good WBS with a corresponding dictionary. Which one of the following does not belong to this set? a. Project managers should develop the WBS alone before sharing with other project team members b. In the WBS a unit of work should be represented only once c. Each WBS item must be described fully in the WBS dictionary d. Only one team member will be responsible for a WBS item
  • 3. Question 5 You are managing a project in which a few deadlines have been missed. Now, you are under pressure to get the project back on track to finish by the scheduled end date. You find that it is possible to fast track some of the activities. What does this mean? a. Do some activities in parallel when they were originally planned to be sequential b. Add more resources to some activities to complete them sooner c. Remove some of the activities in the critical path d. Outsource some of the activities to experts Question 6 You have been asked to manage a product development project. Which of the following costs cannot be a cost of this project? a. Labor b. Advertisement c. Electricity
  • 4. d. Equipment Question 7 Organizations take various approaches for the selection of projects. One such approach is to act on an impetus. Which one of the following is not an impetus for project selection? a. Situations that have the potential to limit the growth of the organization b. Situations that have the potential to improve the growth of the organization c. Situations that are compatible with the project manager’s experience d. Situations that are imposed on the organization by a regulatory authority Question 8 A project has accurate cost estimates. It is still important to prepare a project budget. Which one of the following is not a reason for creating the project budget? a. To create a cost baseline b. To have a more accurate project cost c.
  • 5. To evaluate project progress d. To understand cash flow requirements Question 9 The responsibility of dealing with project change requests falls on the change control board (CCB). Which one of the following is not a primary function of the CCB? a. Train the project team to control change requests b. Issue guidelines on how to present change requests c. Assess the change requests that have been presented d. Oversee the implementation of approved change requests Question 10 A project manager is putting together the project team. Of the 5 project management process groups which one does this activity belong to? a. Initiating b. Executing
  • 6. c. Planning d. Monitoring and controlling Question 11 Project cost management encompasses four processes that help keep the project costs within an approved budget. In project cost management which of the following tasks must a project manager perform first? a. Prepare the basis of estimates b. Prepare the cost baseline c. Prepare the cost management plan d. Prepare the cost forecast Question 12 Project scope management encompasses the processes used in and the results delivered by a project. It creates a common expectation among the stakeholders on what the project will deliver and how the project team will work to produce those results. Which of the following is not within project scope management? a. Determining how the project’s requirements will be managed b.
  • 7. Estimating the costs of the project’s requirements c. Dividing the project requirements into tasks for the project team d. Controlling changes to the project requirements Question 13 Good decisions depend on availability of correct information. The project manager must take steps to ensure the accuracy of financial data. Which of the following is not the responsibility of the project manager in this regard? a. Confirm team members are providing facts b. Use the correct systems to record the costs c. Update the financial data on schedule d. Link data between project management software and main accounting software Question 14 Which one of the following is true about the activity-on-arrow (AOA) approach to creating a project network diagram? a. Bursts occur when multiple activities are followed by a single activity b.
  • 8. Only activities related to deliverables should be included c. No arrows should cross one another d. All arrowheads should face to the left Question 15 Project management standards describe what should be done. Methodologies describe how the work should be performed. Which methodology is a project manager in the United Kingdom likely to adopt? a. Agile methods b. Rational Unified Process (RUP) framework c. PRojects IN Controlled Environments (PRINCE2) d. Six Sigma methodologies Question 16 Due to an unprecedented weather situation some of the equipment used in your project have been damaged. How will you get the funds to repair or replace the damaged equipment? a. By modifying the budget b. By using the contingency reserves
  • 9. c. By using the management reserves d. By communicating with the sponsor Question 17 Stakeholders are the people involved in or affected by project activities. Who is the stakeholder that initiates, directs and funds a project? a. Project sponsor b. CEO c. Top management d. Project steering committee Question 18 You have calculated the following three values for a project task: Earned Value (EV) is $8,000, Planned Value (PV) is $10,000 and Actual Cost (AC) is $7,000. Which of the following is true of the project task status? a. Over budget, behind schedule b. Over budget, ahead of schedule
  • 10. c. Under budget, behind schedule d. Under budget, ahead of schedule Question 19 Interface management, an integral part of project integration management, deals with the exchanges between various stakeholders of a project. The number of interfaces is exponentially related to the number of stakeholders in a project thereby increasing the complexity of project management. Which of the following should a project manager do to have good interface management? a. Limit the number of project stakeholders b. Regularly meet and update project stakeholders c. Organize the project stakeholders in distinct groups that meet only with each other d. Identify key project stakeholders that require interactions Question 20 Gantt charts are used widely to display planned and actual project schedules. What is the main advantage of this tool? a. Shows relationships between tasks
  • 11. b. Shows dependencies of tasks c. Shows resource requirements of tasks d. Shows task schedules in a standard format Question 21 Implementing projects in a planned and phased manner will bolster its chances of success. A project life cycle is a sequential arrangement of project phases such as concept, development, implementation and close-out. Which one of the following is usually true about the initial phase of a project life cycle? a. Level of uncertainty is lowest b. Cost of major changes are highest c. Project requirements are fully known d. Resource needs are lowest Question 22 Your organization is preparing the budget for the next three years. You and the rest of the project managers have been asked to provide cost estimates for the projects that could be initiated 2 years later. What type of cost estimate should you prepare? a.
  • 12. Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) estimate b. Budgetary estimate c. Definitive estimate d. Analogous estimate Question 23 At initiation, requirements for complex and innovative projects may be difficult to define in detail. An agile development method called Scrum is suitable for completing such projects. According to the Scrum framework, what happens during sprint planning? a. A subset of requirements are chosen for implementation b. A prioritized list of requirements are created c. Progress is assessed everyday d. A review of the work completed Question 24 Your organization’s revenues are 10 million and expenses are 9 million. As part of the project selection committee which one of the following projects do you determine will increase the profit margin the most?
  • 13. a. A project that increases the revenue to 11 million and expenses to 10 million b. A project that increases the revenue to 10.5 million and expenses to 9.5 million c. A project that decreases revenue to 9.5 million and expenses to 8.5 million d. A project that decreases revenue to 9 million and expenses to 8 million Question 25 Costs can be classified into multiple categories. For which one of the following cost categories will a project manager find it difficult to get a precise value? a. Tangible costs b. Intangible costs c. Indirect costs d. Sunk costs Question 26
  • 14. Your project budget has allocated $10,000 for an equipment. However, at the time of purchase you find out that the equipment is $10,500. You are confident that you can proceed with the purchase because the variance is less than the project’s _________________ of 8%. a. Cost variance b. Contingency reserve c. Cash flow forecast d. Control threshold Question 27 Your organizational guidelines specify that the required rate of return for internal infrastructure upgrades is 25%. You have evaluated the costs of a potential infrastructure upgrade project to be 120,000. Which of the following estimated benefits will provide a Return on Investment (ROI) that exactly meets the minimum required by the organizational guideline? a. 125,000 b. 175,000 c. 96,000 d.
  • 15. 150,000 Question 28 Excellent project managers excel at using a systems approach. Systems management deals with the business, technological, and organizational concerns related to creating, caring, and changing a system. From a systems management perspective, which one of the following is a business concern? a. Specifications b. Suppliers c. Costs d. Training Question 29 At its current stage, the Earned Value (EV) of a project is $50,000 and the Actual Cost (AC) is $55,000. The project has been budgeted $100,000. What is the estimated cost of completing the project based on the performance until now? a. $90,000 b. $95,000 c. $105,000
  • 16. d. $110,000 Question 30 You have the responsibility of managing a new project that your organization does not have any experience on. In order to create the work breakdown structure (WBS) you decided that you want to unleash your team’s creative thoughts. Which of the following approach is suitable for this? a. Analogy approach b. Top-down approach c. Bottom-up approach d. Mind mapping approach Question 31 Across the planet, many organizations rely on Earned Value Management (EVM) to make good decisions on projects. Which one of the following does EVM rely upon? a. Latest project management software b. Good estimates of project costs c. Calculation skills of project team members
  • 17. d. Availability of time to obtain accurate project costs Question 32 Within an organization, a Project Management Office (PMO) is responsible for coordinating all the project management functions. Which one of the following is a likely responsibility of the PMO? a. Hire people to staff projects b. Provide project methodologies, templates, tools and standards c. Select the projects that fit the strategic direction of the organization d. Manage a group of related projects Question 33 Earned Value Management (EVM) is a widely used, powerful cost control tool. However, not every organization uses EVM. Which of the following is a reason for organizations to not adopt EVM? a. Lack of good project plans b. Complexity of EVM c. Insufficient knowledge of EVM
  • 18. d. Availability of simpler tools Question 34 During the planning processes of project time management an activity list is created in conjunction with activity attributes. Which one of the following will not be found in the activity attributes? a. Predecessor b. Person responsible c. Constraints d. Imposed dates Question 35 A kick-off meeting is the most suitable tool to get new projects started well. Which one of the following is not a purpose of the kick-off meeting? a. Understand the project goals b. Understand the plans for the future of the project c. Understand the stakeholders of the project
  • 19. d. Understand the business case of the project MAT540 Homework Week 2 Page 1 of 4 MAT540 Week 2 Homework Chapter 12 1. A local real estate investor in Orlando is considering three alternative investments; a motel, a restaurant, or a theater. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theater will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment: Investment Weather Conditions Shortage Stable Supply Surplus
  • 20. Motel $-7,500 $12,000 $23,000 Restaurant 3000 7,000 6,500 Theater 5000 6,000 4,000 Determine the best investment, using the following decision criteria. a. Maximax b. Maximin c. Minimax regret d. Hurwicz (α = 0.4) e. Equal likelihood 2. A concessions manager at the Tech versus A&M football game must decide whether to have the vendors sell sun visors or umbrellas. There is a 35% chance of rain, a 25% chance of overcast skies, and a 40% chance of sunshine, according to the weather forecast in college junction, where the game is to be held. The manager estimates that the following profits will result from each decision, given each set of weather conditions:
  • 21. MAT540 Homework Week 2 Page 2 of 4 Decision Weather Conditions Rain 0.35 Overcast 0.25 Sunshine 0.40 Sun visors $-400 $-200 $1,500 Umbrellas 2,100 0 -800 a. Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one.
  • 22. b. Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss for each decision. 3. Place-Plus, a real estate development firm, is considering several alternative development projects. These include building and leasing an office park, purchasing a parcel of land and building an office building to rent, buying and leasing a warehouse, building a strip mall, and selling condominiums. The financial success of these projects depends on interest rate movement in the next 5 years. The various development projects and their 5- year financial return (in $1,000,000s) given that interest rates will decline, remain stable, or increase, are in the following payoff table. Place-Plus real estate development firm has hired an economist to assign a probability to each direction interest rates may take over the next 5 years. The economist has determined that there is a 0.45 probability that interest rates will decline, a 0.35 probability that rates will remain stable, and a 0.2 probability that rates will increase. a. Using expected value, determine the best project.
  • 23. b. Determine the expected value of perfect information. Project Interest Rate Decline Stable Increase Office park $0.4 $1.55 $3.5 Office building 2.5 1.8 2.75 Warehouse 1.7 1.45 1.5 Mall 0.8 2.3 3.5 Condominiums 3.2 1.5 0.5 MAT540 Homework Week 2 Page 3 of 4 4. The director of career advising at Orange Community College wants to use decision analysis to provide information to help students decide which 2-year degree program they should pursue. The director has set up the following payoff table for six of the most popular and successful degree programs at OCC that shows the estimated 5-Year gross income
  • 24. ($) from each degree for four future economic conditions: Degree Program Economic Conditions Recession Average Good Robust Graphic design 150,000 175,000 220,000 200,000 Nursing 160,000 180,000 205,000 215,000 Real estate 125,000 165,000 220,000 210,000 Medical technology 135,000 180,000 210,000 270,000 Culinary technology 110,000 145,000 235,000 205,000 Computer information technology 130,000 150,000 190,000 245,000 Determine the best degree program in terms of projected income, using the following decision criteria: a. Maximax b. Maximin c. Equal likelihood d. Hurwicz (α=0.4)
  • 25. 5. Construct a decision tree for the following decision situation and indicate the best decision. Fenton and Farrah Friendly, husband-and-wife car dealers, are soon going to open a new dealership. They have three offers: from a foreign compact car company, from a U.S. producer of full-sized cars, and from a truck company. The success of each type of dealership will depend on how much gasoline is going to be available during the next few years. The profit from each type of dealership, given the availability of gas, is shown in the following payoff table: MAT540 Homework Week 2 Page 4 of 4 Dealership Gasoline Availability
  • 26. Shortage 0.7 Surplus 0.3 Compact cars $25,000 $150,000 Full-sized cars -90,000 650,000 Trucks 125,000 170,000 Decision Tree diagram to complete: 1 2 3 4 Compact cars Full-sized cars Trucks Shortage 0.7
  • 27. Surplus 0.3 Shortage 0.7 Surplus 0.3 Surplus 0.3 Shortage 0.7 $250,000 $150,00 0 -$90,000 $650,000 $125,000 $170,000