Presented by Mario Herrero at the International Tropical Agriculture Conference, Brisbane, Australia, 11−13 November 2019

1. Facts and myths about livestock and the environment
Mario Herrero
International Tropical Agriculture Conference Brisbane, Australia, 11-13 November 2019

2. Some issues
• A large sector
• Misunderstood by scientists and consumers
• Generalisations
• Dynamic and with many good and bad things
• Mis-represented in the press
Presentation title | Presenter name2 |

3. Presentation title | Presenter name3 |
The demand for livestock products to 2050 – an example
Rosegrant et al 2009
Annual per capita
consumption
Total consumption
year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt)
Developing 2002
2050
28
44
44
78
137
326
222
585
Developed 2002
2050
78
94
202
216
102
126
265
295

4. Wide variation in over and under consumption of ASF in
different regions
Willett et al 2019, The Lancet
Wide variation in under and over consumption of ASF between regions

5. Win more, lose less:
Capturing synergies between
SDGs through agricultural research
The dynamics of demand for livestock products 1990 - 2015

6. The
environmental
efficiency of
livestock has
been improving…
…but we have
traded lower land
use and
emissions for
increased N use
Davis et al 2015 ERL
Davis et al. ERL 2015

7. Environmental impacts – life cycle analyses
Poore and Nemecek, Science 2019

8. Why also focus on demand and not only of making the supply
of ASF more efficient?
8
0. 2. 4. 6. 8.
Tilman and Clark vegetarian
Tilman and Clark mediterranean
Tilman and Calrk pescetarian
Hedenus flexitarian
Hedenus climate carnivore
Bajzelj 2
Bajzelj 1
Sehfest no animal products
Stehfest no meat
Stehfest mediterranean
Stehfest Health diet
Supply-side measures
Herrero et al 2016 Nature Climate Change
Economic
potential
Technical
potential
GT CO2eq

9. Scenarios
Willett et al 2019, The Lancet
The EAT-Lancet Scenarios reveal that healthy and sustainable diets have a big impact
on emissions, but increases in productivity and waste reduction are fundamental to
achieving planet health

10. 10 |
Use of algae for energy
and feed could reduce
emissions to meet the
2 C degree climate
target
Walsh et al. CBM 2015

11. Decoupling livestock from land through a circular economy
11 |
Van Zanten et al. 2018 Global Change Biology

12. Towards a safe-operating space for livestock
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Herrero et al 2019 GFS (in press)
Beef  Low-opportunity-cost lands
 By-product of the dairy sector
Dairy  Smallholder dairy – evidence of intensification, plenty of
demonstrated livelihoods benefits
 High-intensity / high-welfare with careful assessment of
opportunity costs of land
 As much circular feed as possible
Pork and
poultry
 High-intensity / high-welfare
 As much circular feed as possible

13. Thank you
Mario.Herrero@csiro.au
Twitter: @GlobalFoodTeam
Website: https://research.csiro.au/foodglobalsecurity/