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One	
  reporter’s	
  perspec,ve	
  on	
  
covering	
  Climate	
  Change	
  and	
  the	
  
  occassional	
  Na,onal	
  Water	
  
              Emergency	
  
                   	
  
                    Seth	
  Borenstein	
  
                   AP	
  Science	
  Writer	
  
               sborenstein@ap.org	
  
             On	
  TwiCer:	
  @Borenbears	
  
                              	
  
                              	
  
                              	
  
                              	
  
First,	
  I	
  like	
  cold	
  hard	
  data                	
  	
  
•  The	
  last	
  month	
  to	
  be	
  cooler	
  than	
  normal	
  
   globally	
  was	
  in	
  February	
  1985.	
  That	
  month	
  
   Mel	
  Gibson	
  was	
  named	
  People	
  magazine’s	
  
   Sexiest	
  Man	
  Alive.	
  Nearly	
  half	
  of	
  the	
  people	
  
   on	
  Earth	
  were	
  not	
  alive	
  then.	
  
That’s	
  336	
  months	
  in	
  a	
  row	
  
•  Flip	
  a	
  coin	
  336	
  ,mes.	
  The	
  odds	
  of	
  it	
  randomly	
  
   landing	
  heads	
  (warmer)	
  327	
  ,mes	
  in	
  a	
  row.	
  
•  1	
  in	
  
   138,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
   0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
   000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00
   0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000	
  	
  
•  (1.3	
  with	
  101	
  zeros,	
  that’s	
  more	
  than	
  a	
  
     googol)	
  
	
  
Condi,ons	
  today	
  
The	
  data	
  for	
  Lower	
  48	
  states	
  
Conditions for the Contiguous U.S.
Week                  Date           None D0-D4 D1-D4 D2-D4 D3-D4 D4
One Year              02/28/
                             42.48 57.52 38.66 19.50 7.63        2.50
Ago                   12
Start of   09/25/
                  23.41 76.59 65.45 42.12 21.48 6.12
Water Year 12
Start of
                      01/01/
Calendar                     27.22 72.78 61.09 42.05 21.31 6.75
                      13
Year
3 Months              12/04/
                             23.84 76.16 62.37 42.22 20.63 6.49
Ago                   12
                      02/26/
Last Week                    33.62 66.38 54.17 36.35 16.95 5.45
                      13
                      03/05/
Current                      34.33 65.67 53.34 36.44 17.04 5.45
                      13
Drought	
  disaster	
  declared	
  for	
  
                  Oklahoma	
  (Jan.	
  2013)	
  
•    By	
  Shelby	
  Travis	
  
•    via	
  The	
  Associated	
  Press	
  	
  
•    Oklahoma	
  City	
  —	
  	
  
•    The	
  U.S.	
  Department	
  of	
  Agriculture	
  has	
  designated	
  76	
  of	
  Oklahoma's	
  77	
  coun,es	
  
     and	
  nearly	
  two-­‐thirds	
  of	
  Arkansas'	
  coun,es	
  as	
  primary	
  natural	
  disaster	
  areas	
  due	
  
     to	
  ongoing	
  drought	
  condi,ons.	
  
•    Wednesday's	
  declara,on	
  makes	
  farmers	
  in	
  the	
  areas	
  eligible	
  for	
  low-­‐interest	
  
     emergency	
  loans	
  of	
  2.15	
  percent.	
  
•    In	
  Oklahoma	
  —	
  only	
  OCawa	
  County	
  is	
  not	
  a	
  primary	
  disaster	
  area	
  —	
  but	
  farmers	
  
     there	
  are	
  also	
  eligible	
  because	
  the	
  county	
  is	
  con,guous	
  to	
  those	
  in	
  the	
  primary	
  
     disaster	
  declara,on.	
  
•    The	
  47	
  of	
  75	
  Arkansas	
  coun,es	
  that	
  are	
  primary	
  disaster	
  areas	
  are	
  in	
  the	
  
     northwestern	
  two-­‐thirds	
  of	
  the	
  state	
  and	
  farmers	
  in	
  coun,es	
  con,guous	
  to	
  those	
  
     coun,es	
  are	
  also	
  eligible	
  for	
  federal	
  assistance.	
  
•    U.S.	
  Agriculture	
  Secretary	
  Tom	
  Vilsack	
  designated	
  a	
  total	
  of	
  597	
  coun,es	
  in	
  14	
  
     states	
  as	
  primary	
  natural	
  disaster	
  areas	
  in	
  the	
  declara,on.	
  
•    Copyright	
  The	
  Associated	
  Press	
  
A	
  picture	
  tells	
  it	
  beCer	
  
Let’s	
  look	
  at	
  three	
  worlds	
  

•  The	
  world	
  of	
  Scien,sts	
  
•  The	
  world	
  of	
  Climate	
  Science	
  
•  The	
  world	
  of	
  Journalism	
  
The	
  world	
  of	
  scien,sts	
  
•      1.	
  Data	
  not	
  anecdotes	
  
•      2.	
  Objec,ve	
  not	
  subjec,ve;	
  “cool”	
  not	
  “hot”	
  
•      3.	
  Incremental	
  
•      4.	
  Lengthy	
  
•      5.	
  Time	
  consuming	
  
	
  
Scien,sts	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  



                               Theori'cians	
  	
  Experimentalists	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Communicators	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
The	
  subcategory	
  of	
  Climate	
  Science	
  
•  	
  	
  	
  
                  Climate	
  averages	
  (like	
  yearly	
  global	
  
                               temp.	
  rainfall)	
  
                                        	
  
                       Too	
  much,	
  too	
  liCle	
  water	
  
                                        	
  
                                        	
  
                       Climate	
  extremes	
  (such	
  as	
  
                     hurricanes,	
  other	
  storms,	
  heat	
  
                             waves,	
  cold	
  snaps)	
  
The	
  world	
  of	
  Journalists	
  
•  1.	
  Anecdotes	
  more	
  than	
  data	
  
•  2.	
  Subjec,ve	
  (“How	
  do	
  you	
  feel?”)	
  A	
  hot	
  not	
  a	
  
   cool	
  medium	
  
•  3.	
  Drama	
  
•  4.	
  Brief	
  
•  5.	
  Fast.	
  
The	
  world	
  of	
  Journalists	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  
                          Science/Tech/Medical/Explainer	
  
                                                           	
  
                                                           	
  
                                                           	
  
                                General	
  Assignment	
  
                                                           	
  
                                                        Poli,cs	
  
                                                           	
  
                              Television	
  Morning	
  Show	
  
                                                           	
  
                                 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Sports	
  reporters	
  
                                                           	
  
                                Celebrity	
  journalists	
  
                                                           	
  
Put	
  them	
  all	
  together	
  
•  	
  	
  
So	
  What’s	
  in	
  that	
  intersec,on	
  
•  Climate	
  Extremes	
  
•  Heat	
  Waves	
  
•  Storms	
  
•  Science	
  Writers	
  
•  Good	
  science	
  communicators	
  who	
  are	
  
   scien,sts	
  
•  b	
  
What’s	
  not	
  in	
  that	
  intersec,on	
  
                                	
  
•  Most	
  television	
  media	
  
•  Many	
  poli,cians	
  
•  The	
  poli,cal	
  he-­‐said,	
  she	
  said	
  sense	
  of	
  balance	
  
   when	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  the	
  science	
  of	
  climate	
  

•  And	
  most	
  importantly	
  for	
  this	
  session:	
  
   WATER	
  ISSUES	
  
The	
  climate	
  extreme	
  that	
  doesn’t	
  
        come	
  off	
  so	
  well	
  on	
  television	
  
                             	
  
• Drought	
  is	
  
  incremental	
  
• It	
  happens	
  slowly	
  
	
  
And	
  water	
  is	
  

• Taken	
  for	
  granted	
  unless	
  
  you	
  have	
  too	
  liCle	
  or	
  too	
  
  much	
  of	
  it.	
  Think	
  of	
  your	
  
  last	
  meal,	
  your	
  yard,	
  
  fountains	
  of	
  Las	
  Vegas,	
  golf	
  
  courses.	
  
But	
  if	
  you	
  talk	
  to	
  experts	
  
•  Water	
  is	
  where	
  we’ll	
  have	
  more	
  
   conflicts,	
  wars,	
  fights,	
  lawsuits,	
  and	
  
   changes	
  in	
  lifestyle.	
  Either	
  because	
  
   of	
  too	
  liCle	
  or	
  too	
  much.	
  
•  Water	
  effects	
  us	
  everyday,	
  more	
  
   than	
  heat	
  or	
  storms.	
  
Some	
  advice	
  for	
  journalists	
  
•  From	
  an	
  old	
  hand	
  who	
  got	
  into	
  science	
  and	
  
   environment	
  wri,ng	
  in	
  1989	
  solely	
  because	
  of	
  
   what	
  was	
  then	
  the	
  largest	
  drought	
  in	
  South	
  
   Florida	
  records.	
  
• 
                                           Check	
  Water	
  Bills	
  
     Officials`	
  Water	
  Bills	
  Show	
  Increase	
  
•  January	
  28,	
  1990|By	
  MICHAEL	
  SAUNDERS,	
  and	
  SETH	
  BORENSTEIN,	
  Staff	
  Writers	
  
•  Faced	
  with	
  a	
  record	
  water	
  shortage,	
  regional	
  water	
  managers	
  asked	
  -­‐-­‐	
  then	
  
     ordered	
  -­‐-­‐	
  4	
  million	
  South	
  Florida	
  residents	
  to	
  use	
  less	
  water.	
  
•  But	
  many	
  of	
  those	
  officials	
  did	
  not	
  follow	
  their	
  own	
  orders,	
  their	
  water	
  bills	
  show.	
  
•  Five	
  members	
  of	
  the	
  South	
  Florida	
  Water	
  Management	
  District`s	
  governing	
  board	
  
     are	
  on	
  public	
  water	
  supplies	
  in	
  areas	
  where	
  residents	
  were	
  asked	
  or	
  ordered	
  to	
  
     cut	
  water	
  use.	
  Only	
  two	
  of	
  those	
  five	
  cut	
  back,	
  and	
  the	
  district`s	
  top	
  execu,ve	
  
     used	
  about	
  40	
  percent	
  more	
  water	
  in	
  January	
  than	
  in	
  December.	
  	
  
•  In	
  April,	
  the	
  district	
  imposed	
  three-­‐day-­‐a-­‐week	
  limits	
  on	
  outdoor	
  water	
  use	
  in	
  
     northeast	
  Broward	
  County.	
  In	
  July,	
  the	
  same	
  restric,ons	
  were	
  imposed	
  in	
  
     northeast	
  Palm	
  Beach	
  County,	
  and	
  on	
  Dec.	
  18,	
  restric,ons	
  were	
  imposed	
  from	
  
     Jupiter	
  to	
  Key	
  West.	
  Residents	
  were	
  told	
  to	
  trim	
  consump,on	
  by	
  15	
  percent.	
  
•  ``We	
  have	
  to	
  live	
  with	
  what	
  we	
  preach,	
  absolutely,``	
  said	
  water	
  board	
  member	
  
     Arsenio	
  Milian	
  of	
  Miami,	
  whose	
  December	
  water	
  bill	
  reflected	
  a	
  33	
  percent	
  
     increase	
  over	
  his	
  previous	
  bill.	
  
	
  
Be	
  ready	
  to	
  change	
  at	
  the	
  drop	
  of	
  rain	
  
•  Dry	
  Despite	
  Deluge	
  
   I	
  spent	
  months	
  on	
  a	
  big	
  narra,ve	
  piece	
  on	
  how	
  horrible	
  and	
  mass	
  effec,ng	
  the	
  
   drought	
  was.	
  The	
  day	
  before	
  it	
  was	
  to	
  run,	
  it	
  didn’t	
  just	
  rain,	
  it	
  was	
  a	
  deluge.	
  So	
  
   we	
  had	
  to	
  vamp	
  on	
  the	
  story,	
  with:	
  
   hCp://ar,cles.sun-­‐sen,nel.com/1989-­‐06-­‐30/news/8902180487_1_everglades-­‐
   na,onal-­‐park-­‐rain-­‐freshwater-­‐fish	
  
Think	
  Bringing	
  It	
  Home	
  To	
  People	
  

•  We	
  decided	
  to	
  look	
  at	
  day-­‐to-­‐day	
  water	
  use	
  in	
  
   people’s	
  homes	
  and	
  got	
  a	
  family	
  of	
  four	
  to	
  let	
  
   us	
  monitor	
  their	
  every	
  day	
  water	
  use,	
  even	
  
   lesng	
  us	
  in	
  the	
  shower	
  with	
  the	
  dad	
  (he	
  wore	
  
   swim	
  trunks):	
  
•  hCp://ar,cles.sun-­‐sen,nel.com/1990-­‐04-­‐15/
   news/9001030015_1_severe-­‐water-­‐
   shortages-­‐limited-­‐water-­‐supply-­‐droughts	
  
Thank	
  you	
  
•    Seth	
  Borenstein	
  
•    Science	
  Writer,	
  The	
  Associated	
  Press	
  
•    Washington	
  DC;	
  202-­‐641-­‐9454	
  
•    Sborenstein@ap.org;	
  TwiCer:	
  @borenbears	
  
•    hCp://bigstory.ap.org/	
  
•    hCp://bigstory.ap.org/content/seth-­‐
     borenstein	
  
•  	
  	
  
	
  

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Seth Borenstein - Water Crisis March 11, 2013

  • 1. One  reporter’s  perspec,ve  on   covering  Climate  Change  and  the   occassional  Na,onal  Water   Emergency     Seth  Borenstein   AP  Science  Writer   sborenstein@ap.org   On  TwiCer:  @Borenbears          
  • 2. First,  I  like  cold  hard  data     •  The  last  month  to  be  cooler  than  normal   globally  was  in  February  1985.  That  month   Mel  Gibson  was  named  People  magazine’s   Sexiest  Man  Alive.  Nearly  half  of  the  people   on  Earth  were  not  alive  then.  
  • 3. That’s  336  months  in  a  row   •  Flip  a  coin  336  ,mes.  The  odds  of  it  randomly   landing  heads  (warmer)  327  ,mes  in  a  row.   •  1  in   138,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000     •  (1.3  with  101  zeros,  that’s  more  than  a   googol)    
  • 5. The  data  for  Lower  48  states   Conditions for the Contiguous U.S. Week Date None D0-D4 D1-D4 D2-D4 D3-D4 D4 One Year 02/28/ 42.48 57.52 38.66 19.50 7.63 2.50 Ago 12 Start of 09/25/ 23.41 76.59 65.45 42.12 21.48 6.12 Water Year 12 Start of 01/01/ Calendar 27.22 72.78 61.09 42.05 21.31 6.75 13 Year 3 Months 12/04/ 23.84 76.16 62.37 42.22 20.63 6.49 Ago 12 02/26/ Last Week 33.62 66.38 54.17 36.35 16.95 5.45 13 03/05/ Current 34.33 65.67 53.34 36.44 17.04 5.45 13
  • 6. Drought  disaster  declared  for   Oklahoma  (Jan.  2013)   •  By  Shelby  Travis   •  via  The  Associated  Press     •  Oklahoma  City  —     •  The  U.S.  Department  of  Agriculture  has  designated  76  of  Oklahoma's  77  coun,es   and  nearly  two-­‐thirds  of  Arkansas'  coun,es  as  primary  natural  disaster  areas  due   to  ongoing  drought  condi,ons.   •  Wednesday's  declara,on  makes  farmers  in  the  areas  eligible  for  low-­‐interest   emergency  loans  of  2.15  percent.   •  In  Oklahoma  —  only  OCawa  County  is  not  a  primary  disaster  area  —  but  farmers   there  are  also  eligible  because  the  county  is  con,guous  to  those  in  the  primary   disaster  declara,on.   •  The  47  of  75  Arkansas  coun,es  that  are  primary  disaster  areas  are  in  the   northwestern  two-­‐thirds  of  the  state  and  farmers  in  coun,es  con,guous  to  those   coun,es  are  also  eligible  for  federal  assistance.   •  U.S.  Agriculture  Secretary  Tom  Vilsack  designated  a  total  of  597  coun,es  in  14   states  as  primary  natural  disaster  areas  in  the  declara,on.   •  Copyright  The  Associated  Press  
  • 7. A  picture  tells  it  beCer  
  • 8. Let’s  look  at  three  worlds   •  The  world  of  Scien,sts   •  The  world  of  Climate  Science   •  The  world  of  Journalism  
  • 9. The  world  of  scien,sts   •  1.  Data  not  anecdotes   •  2.  Objec,ve  not  subjec,ve;  “cool”  not  “hot”   •  3.  Incremental   •  4.  Lengthy   •  5.  Time  consuming    
  • 10. Scien,sts                 Theori'cians    Experimentalists                  Communicators                
  • 11. The  subcategory  of  Climate  Science   •        Climate  averages  (like  yearly  global   temp.  rainfall)     Too  much,  too  liCle  water       Climate  extremes  (such  as   hurricanes,  other  storms,  heat   waves,  cold  snaps)  
  • 12. The  world  of  Journalists   •  1.  Anecdotes  more  than  data   •  2.  Subjec,ve  (“How  do  you  feel?”)  A  hot  not  a   cool  medium   •  3.  Drama   •  4.  Brief   •  5.  Fast.  
  • 13. The  world  of  Journalists           Science/Tech/Medical/Explainer         General  Assignment     Poli,cs     Television  Morning  Show              Sports  reporters     Celebrity  journalists    
  • 14. Put  them  all  together   •     
  • 15. So  What’s  in  that  intersec,on   •  Climate  Extremes   •  Heat  Waves   •  Storms   •  Science  Writers   •  Good  science  communicators  who  are   scien,sts   •  b  
  • 16. What’s  not  in  that  intersec,on     •  Most  television  media   •  Many  poli,cians   •  The  poli,cal  he-­‐said,  she  said  sense  of  balance   when  it  comes  to  the  science  of  climate   •  And  most  importantly  for  this  session:   WATER  ISSUES  
  • 17. The  climate  extreme  that  doesn’t   come  off  so  well  on  television     • Drought  is   incremental   • It  happens  slowly    
  • 18. And  water  is   • Taken  for  granted  unless   you  have  too  liCle  or  too   much  of  it.  Think  of  your   last  meal,  your  yard,   fountains  of  Las  Vegas,  golf   courses.  
  • 19. But  if  you  talk  to  experts   •  Water  is  where  we’ll  have  more   conflicts,  wars,  fights,  lawsuits,  and   changes  in  lifestyle.  Either  because   of  too  liCle  or  too  much.   •  Water  effects  us  everyday,  more   than  heat  or  storms.  
  • 20. Some  advice  for  journalists   •  From  an  old  hand  who  got  into  science  and   environment  wri,ng  in  1989  solely  because  of   what  was  then  the  largest  drought  in  South   Florida  records.  
  • 21. •  Check  Water  Bills   Officials`  Water  Bills  Show  Increase   •  January  28,  1990|By  MICHAEL  SAUNDERS,  and  SETH  BORENSTEIN,  Staff  Writers   •  Faced  with  a  record  water  shortage,  regional  water  managers  asked  -­‐-­‐  then   ordered  -­‐-­‐  4  million  South  Florida  residents  to  use  less  water.   •  But  many  of  those  officials  did  not  follow  their  own  orders,  their  water  bills  show.   •  Five  members  of  the  South  Florida  Water  Management  District`s  governing  board   are  on  public  water  supplies  in  areas  where  residents  were  asked  or  ordered  to   cut  water  use.  Only  two  of  those  five  cut  back,  and  the  district`s  top  execu,ve   used  about  40  percent  more  water  in  January  than  in  December.     •  In  April,  the  district  imposed  three-­‐day-­‐a-­‐week  limits  on  outdoor  water  use  in   northeast  Broward  County.  In  July,  the  same  restric,ons  were  imposed  in   northeast  Palm  Beach  County,  and  on  Dec.  18,  restric,ons  were  imposed  from   Jupiter  to  Key  West.  Residents  were  told  to  trim  consump,on  by  15  percent.   •  ``We  have  to  live  with  what  we  preach,  absolutely,``  said  water  board  member   Arsenio  Milian  of  Miami,  whose  December  water  bill  reflected  a  33  percent   increase  over  his  previous  bill.    
  • 22. Be  ready  to  change  at  the  drop  of  rain   •  Dry  Despite  Deluge   I  spent  months  on  a  big  narra,ve  piece  on  how  horrible  and  mass  effec,ng  the   drought  was.  The  day  before  it  was  to  run,  it  didn’t  just  rain,  it  was  a  deluge.  So   we  had  to  vamp  on  the  story,  with:   hCp://ar,cles.sun-­‐sen,nel.com/1989-­‐06-­‐30/news/8902180487_1_everglades-­‐ na,onal-­‐park-­‐rain-­‐freshwater-­‐fish  
  • 23. Think  Bringing  It  Home  To  People   •  We  decided  to  look  at  day-­‐to-­‐day  water  use  in   people’s  homes  and  got  a  family  of  four  to  let   us  monitor  their  every  day  water  use,  even   lesng  us  in  the  shower  with  the  dad  (he  wore   swim  trunks):   •  hCp://ar,cles.sun-­‐sen,nel.com/1990-­‐04-­‐15/ news/9001030015_1_severe-­‐water-­‐ shortages-­‐limited-­‐water-­‐supply-­‐droughts  
  • 24. Thank  you   •  Seth  Borenstein   •  Science  Writer,  The  Associated  Press   •  Washington  DC;  202-­‐641-­‐9454   •  Sborenstein@ap.org;  TwiCer:  @borenbears   •  hCp://bigstory.ap.org/   •  hCp://bigstory.ap.org/content/seth-­‐ borenstein   •