This document provides an agenda and materials for a workshop on climate change. The workshop aims to address participants' needs and foster helpful discussions through presentations on topics like the Earth system, climate change basics, impacts on people, policy contexts, and potential solutions. Activities are included to help explain concepts like the carbon cycle, climate modeling, and impacts of climate change. The goal is to present useful, effective, and fun classroom-ready activities to improve understanding of this important issue.

1. Teri Eastburn
July 24, 2017
16th Annual Enivonmental
Health Sciences Summer Inst.
CLLIMATE CHANGE:
PEOPLE
PLANET
POLICY

2. What are UCAR and NCAR?
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/ClimateTX

3. What do you know, want to
know, and want to learn
about climate change?
A review of our KWL Chart
KWL

4. • To address your needs
• To foster confidence
• To present USEFUL, EFFECTIVE, AND FUN
classroom-ready activities
• To foster helpful discussions
• To have fun and learn from one another
Goals for Today

5. 9:00: Introduction
9:30: Earth as a System; Climate Change Basics
11:30: People and Impacts
Biogeochemical Cycles & Human Influence
1:00: Policy and the Social and Political Context
2:30: Climate Future: Solutions & Connections
3:30: Workshop Evaluations and Resource Review
Today’s Agenda

6. • Is the planet really warming up?
• But don’t many scientists claim that the science is uncertain?
• Is a small temperature rise such a big deal?
• When did we discover the issue?
• Couldn’t the change have natural causes or phenomenon other than GHE
be to blame?
• Is it necessarily a bad thing?
• How warm will it get? What impacts are anticipated? Agriculture, economy,
wildlife….
• What is anticipated w/ sea level, ocean acidification and coral bleaching ?
• Will we reach tipping points and what does that mean?
• What countries emit the most; how are developing countries impacted; and
what would it take to slow or even stop all emissions worldwide?
• What might a global deal look like?
• Won’t nature take care of the problem in the long run?
Questions adapted from The Thinking Person’s Guide to Climate Change by Robert Henson
KEY QUESTIONS, OUTLOOK, SOLUTIONS

8. .
• Belief in climate change up 13%,
from 57% to 70%;
Climate change denialists have declined
- now 1 in 8 people, 13%;
• 58% of Americans believe climate change
is human caused – up 4%;
• Only one in four (13%) know that more than 90% of climate
scientists agree it is human caused as compared to the prior
report where 44% of Americans believe scientists
Source: Climate Change in the American Mind, 6/2017
Since 2016
Great Strides

9. What led to Affirmations?
• Hurricane Sandy
• Increasing media coverage affirming climate change
• Midwest drought, summer 2012
• Texas drought 2011; Fires across Southwest & West
• All around increase in severe weather events
• Arctic sea ice retreat
• 2012 hottest year on record in continental US

10. A Conversation: Climate Communication

11. The Earth System & The Systems Game
Atmosphere
Lithosphere
Cryosphere
Biosphere
Hydrosphere

12. Source:
Living with a Star, NASA

13. Meet the Photon Folks
Absorption, Reflection ,Transmission
Energy

14. Our Atmospheric Filter

15. Wave Demo Activity

17. Source: Jet Propulsion Laboratory &
the University of California

18. Feeling the Heat Activity
Students learn about the
urban heat island effect by
investigating which areas of
their schoolyard have higher
temperatures. Then they
analyze data about how the
number of heat waves in an
urban area has increased
over time with population.
NYC, 8/14/02: Temp and vegetationPg. 19
Pg.

19. Reasons for patterns
The highest temperatures are found in the most dense part
of a city. That’s the urban heat island effect.
The next 3 slides show how LA has changed over time. How do
you think the heat island effect has changed as the city
changed?

21. Feeling the Heat, Part 1
Students investigate how trees, grass,
asphalt, etc. affect temperatureCoolest
Warm

22. Feeling the Heat, Part 2:
Investigating the history of heat waves and temperature in Los
Angeles, CAStand in a group of 10 along the rope. Each person takes one
LA Data Card.
The Objective: Order yourselves by the data on the card
keeping at least one foot on the rope at all times as you
move past each other to get in order.
1. Order yourselves by average temperature.
2. Order yourselves by the number of heat waves.**
3. Order yourselves by population.
(**Note: there are two decades that have the same number
of heat waves. The people with those cards can stand next
to each other in any order.)

23. Los Angeles, CA in 1877. East LA is on the left and West LA is
on the right. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress))

24. Los Angeles, CA in 1909. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress)

25. Los Angeles, CA in 2002. This 3-D perspective view was generated
using topographic data and an enhanced color Landsat 5 satellite
image mosaic. Topography is exaggerated one and one-half times.
(Courtesy of NASA/JPL)

26. This graph shows
the number of
heat waves in
Los Angeles, CA
over the past
century. Do you
see a pattern?
How have heat
waves changed
through time?
(From Tamrazian
et al., 2008)
Looking for patterns

27. How has the temperature in Los Angeles changed over time? This
graph shows the average temperature for each year. See a pattern?
CourtesyofNOAA/NWS

28. Warmer city temperatures are partially due to global warming.
This graph shows how Earth’s average temperature has changed.

30. URBAN
HEATISLAND

32. Computational Thinking and Models
“Essentially, all models are wrong,
but some models are useful.”
- George E. P. Box (1951)

33. CLIMATEMODELS

34. Climate Model Components
Credit: UCAR (Paul Grabhorn)

35. Climate Model Components
Credit: UCAR

36. • Observations
• Theory
• Numerical Modeling
Progress in climate models
occurs as a result of: Like a sturdy
3-legged
stool
THEORY
“Science presumes that things
and events
in the Universe occur in
consistent patterns
that are comprehensible
through careful, systematic
study.” ~ AAAS

37. Improving Resolution of Climate Models
Credit: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4):
Working Group 1: Chapter 1, page 113, Fig. 1.4

38. Vertical Resolution of Climate Models
Vertical Layers
• 1990s
• 10 layer atmosphere
• 1 layer “slab” ocean
• 2000s
• 30 layer atmosphere
• 30 layer ocean
Credit: UCAR

39. Resolution: What Does It Mean?

40. 3 min Video: Modeling and Supercomputers
Credit: NCAR, CISL

41. The Very Simple Climate Model

43. Which of the following cannot be addressed by
a physical climate model?
1. How would Earth’s average surface temperature be expected
to change if carbon dioxide doubled?
2. How much carbon dioxide and methane will humans add to
the atmosphere during each of the next five decades?
3. Can cosmic rays from the sun affect clouds and hence play an
important role in climate variability and change?
4. Is it possible to learn about past climate variations by
gathering data from holes drilled deep into the Earth’s crust?
5. All above can be addressed by physical climate science.

44. F = P x g x e x f x d
• F = total GHG emission rate
• P = population size (global and/or national)
• g = per capita gross world/domestic capital
• e = energy use per $ of gross world/national
product
• f = GHG emissions per unit energy use
• d = deforestation effects
How will GHG vary?

45. Climate Models help with…
DETECTION - Is the planet’s climate changing
significantly?
ATTRIBUTION – If so, what is causing the change?
Nature? Human Actions? Both?
PROJECTION – What does the future hold for
Earth’s climate?

46. Planet, People, Policy
Human Footprints

47. Activity: The Carbon Journey
Source: NOAA

49. Activity: The Nitrogen Cycle Game

51. The “Other” CO2 Problem
CHASING
CORAL VIDEO
ON NETFLIX
AS OF JULY
14, 2017

52. Activity: CO2 How Much Do You Spew?

53. CO2: How Much Do You Spew? Directions:
• Each group has a card profiling a hypothetical family or individual.
• Families/individuals live in different situations & use energy in different ways.
• Students use the worksheet to calculate a household’s CO2 emissions.
Sample card
CO2: How Much Do You Spew?

54. Answer Key for CO2: How Much Do You Spew
1. What activities emitted the most CO2 for the family you examined?
2. Could those activities be changed to emit less CO2? How?
3. How would you change your scenario to reduce CO2?

56. 150 0.0450.012
100 0.0740.018
50 0.1280.026
25 0.1770.052
Period Rate
Years /decade
Trenberth
Global mean temperatures are
rising faster with time
Warmest 12 years:
2010,2005,1998,2013,2003,2002,
2006,2009,2007,2004,2001,2011

57. Activity: Shopping Heats Up
Photo by WaterPartners International
What are basic human needs?
Select items to purchase with your
global dollars using the
Choices and impacts
worksheet

58. D. Visible Impacts
ACTIVITY: CLIMATE IMPACTS GRAPH MATCHING
• On your table:
– Graphs of data about climate and global change
– Statements that are supported by the graphed data
– Statements that are not supported by graphed data
• Directions:
– Match statements with a graph of data that supports them.
– Identify statements that are not supported with these data.

59. Climate Impacts Graph Matching
is in the Climate & Water Teaching Box

60. 1906
2004
Photos courtesy of USGSCarroll Glacier
Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
Activity: Glaciers Then and Now

61. Muir Glacier (Pg. 85)
Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
1941
2004
Photos courtesy of NSIDC

62. COME HITHER CLIMATE SKEPTIC AND LISTEN TO THIS TALE TALE. Source: Stockphoto

64. 1979 – 2000 average
Minimum sea ice extent
+/- 2 standard diviiations
1981 – 2010 average
Minimum sea ice extent
+/- 2 standard diviations
2007
2012
2013
2014

65. Model Projections of Future Arctic
Summer Sea Ice Minimums Under
Business as Usual Future

66. CLIMATE AND DROUGHT

67. From Istockphoto.com
C
O
N
N
E
C
T
I
O
N
S

68. Raise the Roof on Urban Heat

69. Walk Thru: Stabilization Wedges Game
2 2 = 4 billion tons go out
Ocean Land Biosphere (net)
Fossil Fuel
Burning
+
8
800
billion tons carbon
4
billion
tons go in
ATMOSPHERE
billion tons added
every year

70. Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
Historical
emissions
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
Historical Emissions

71. 1.6
Interim Goal
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
Historical
emissions Flat path
Stabilization
Triangle
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
The Stabilization Triangle

72. 1.6
Interim Goal
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
Historical
emissions Flat path
Stabilization
Triangle
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
The Stabilization Triangle
~850 ppm
Easier CO2 target

73. 1.6
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted per
Year
Historical
emissions Flat path
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
Stabilization Wedges
16 GtC/y
Eight “wedges”
Goal: In 50 years, same
global emissions as today

74. What is a “Wedge”?
A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows
in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already
been commercialized at scale somewhere.
1 GtC/yr
50 years
Total = 25 Gigatons carbon
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years.
This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.
A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

75. Energy Efficiency &
Conservation (4)
CO2 Capture
& Storage (3)
Stabilization
Triangle
Renewable Fuels
& Electricity (4)
Forest and Soil Storage
(2)
Fuel Switching
(1)
15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Nuclear Fission (1)
2007 2057
8 GtC/y
16 GtC/y
Triangle
Stabilization

76. Take Home Messages
• In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to
rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or
enhance natural sinks
• We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to
make large cuts in emissions
• No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of
strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a
CO2 doubling
• Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs

77. Activity:
Climate Connections

78. Climate Change 101
TEACH THESE 5 KEY POINTS
It is real NOW
It is bad for us
It is human-caused
We can solve it if we choose to
Climate scientists agree that it’s happening
Because this is
what scientific
evidence supports

79. Thank you for joining me today.
Help us continually improve this
workshop by completing your
survey before you leave.
Teri Eastburn, eastburn@ucar.edu
303.497.1152
https://scied.ucar.edu/events/

80. Extra – not needed

81. Activity Review: Model a Moving Glacier
The objective of this lesson is to teach middle and high school students about
variables that affect glacier flow over time:
- valley slope
- ice temperature
- basal conditions (ground surface)
- strain
Pg. 91

84. Source: Meehl et al
NCAR

85. Resources
www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators
www.ipcc.ch
www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/publications.htm
IPCC5th Assessment Reports 2014 EPA Climate Indicators CDC Publications
C. Resources

86. National Climate Assessment
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov