Rabies in Northern Australia Michael WARD
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Presentation at 3rd GRF One Health Summit 2015 Session Wildlife, Livestock and Pets
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Rabies in Northern Australia Michael WARD
- 1. FACULTY OF VETERINARY SCIENCE Michael Ward & Salome Dürr Rabies in Northern Australia: Preparedness and Response
- 2. Research Support › Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research 2012–2013 › Commonwealth Department of Agriculture - Wildlife Exotic Disease Preparedness Program 2013–2015 - Stronger Biosecurity and Quarantine Initiative 2015–2016 › Swiss National Science Foundation (2013–2015)
- 4. Research questions › What are the risk pathways for rabies spread into northern Australia? › How might rabies spread following an incursion? › What would be the impact? › What is the best control strategy? riskassessmentdiseasemodelsurveillance
- 5. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-14/johnny-depps-dogs-cant-stay-in-australia-barnaby-joyce-warns/6468542 “There is a process if you want to bring animals: you get permits, they go into quarantine and then you can have them” “I’ll tell you how close it is: it’s in Bali, it’s just next door. So this is not fanciful stuff, and therefore we’re very diligent about what comes into our nation.”
- 6. Australia is rabies free, but... › Rabies risk map (introduction, establishment and spread of the disease) Dr Beth Cookson, DAFF, Science Week 2012 ... there is a plausible threat of incursion › Rabies spread across the Indonesian Peninsula
- 10. Research questions › What are the risk pathways for rabies spread into northern Australia? › How might rabies spread following an incursion? › What would be the impact? › What is the best control strategy?
- 11. 11 Prophylactic vaccination Vaccination Mortality Infection Mortality Clinical disease Rabies mortality MortalityMortality Mortality Abortive exposure Birth Loss of immunity Rabies mortality Abortive exposure Clinical diseaseBirth Loss of immunity Density correction Mortality Susceptible dogs Exposed dogs Immunized dogs Rabid dogs Vaccination Density correction Density correction Density correction Infection Susceptible humans Exposed humans Immunized humans Rabid humans PET vaccination Mortality Mortality Example of a rabies SEI model Rabies endemic country Zinsstag et al, PNAS, 2009 dog contact rates • prob. of effective contact • prob. of transmission, given effective contact
- 12. Dogs in northern Australian communities
- 14. Study sites: 10 communities Katherine Gapuwiyak Galiwink’u Northern Peninsula Area
- 16. Data collection: GPS units
- 17. Data collection: video cameras
- 18. Data collection
- 23. 23 Data collection: motion-activated cameras
- 24. 24 Data collection: motion-activated cameras
- 25. Contact rates distance, m pr.contact spatial distance kernel
- 26. 26 Prophylactic vaccination Vaccination Mortality Infection Mortality Clinical disease Rabies mortality MortalityMortality Mortality Abortive exposure Birth Loss of immunity Rabies mortality Abortive exposure Clinical diseaseBirth Loss of immunity Density correction Mortality Susceptible dogs Exposed dogs Immunized dogs Rabid dogs Vaccination Density correction Density correction Density correction Infection Susceptible humans Exposed humans Immunized humans Rabid humans PET vaccination Mortality Mortality Example of a rabies SEI model Rabies endemic country Zinsstag et al, PNAS, 2009 dog contact rates • prob. of effective contact • prob. of transmission, given effective contact
- 27. http://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0003876 The rabies simulation model
- 28. The rabies simulation model
- 29. The rabies simulation model 29 S › spatio-temporal and stochastic › individual dog-based › three types of contacts › control strategies - vaccination - movement restrictions - culling
- 30. 30 The rabies simulation model
- 31. The rabies simulation model
- 33. Conclusions • involvement of local communities and agencies • integration of data collection methods • field-based estimation of contact rates • both within- and between-community rabies spread would likely occur • vaccination the most effective response strategy: policy advice
- 34. Acknowledgements 34 › USYD Salome Durr, Courtenay Bombara, Stephanie Molloy, Emily Hudson › NPA George Mara, Frank Mau › QLD Health Clayton Abreu › East Arnhem Shire Emma Kennedy, Sacha Woodburn, Philippa Dhagapan, Virginia Barratj, Sharon Wunungmurra, Julie Wulkurrngu › AMRRIC Jan Allen, John Skudja, Bonny Cumming › Katherine Vet Services Alex Burleigh › Dept. of Agriculture Beth Cookson, Nick Harris, Chris Rodwell › NSW DPI Peter Fleming
Editor's Notes
- Our project is not about risk analysis of rabies incursion but on the impact once rabies is here.
- Our project is not about risk analysis of rabies incursion but on the impact once rabies is here.
- A couple of different rabies simulation models have been published; however in endemic regions only. A lot of parameters can be taken from the literature. The most important parameters, which are notably unknown, are the dog population size and structure and the transmission parameters, which is based on the dog contact rates
- A couple of different rabies simulation models have been published; however in endemic regions only. A lot of parameters can be taken from the literature. The most important parameters, which are notably unknown, are the dog population size and structure and the transmission parameters, which is based on the dog contact rates
- Our project is not about risk analysis of rabies incursion but on the impact once rabies is here.