A Safe and Sustainable Future_Durney_v1
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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland
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A Safe and Sustainable Future_Durney_v1
- 1. A Safe and Sustainable Future: Enabling the Transition Elizabeth Durney Global Risk Forum, Davos, Switzerland August 25, 2014 DNV GL © 2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER 1
- 2. DNV GL: Global Advisory & Certification Leader in Electricity, Maritime, Oil and Gas and Business Management Systems Barriers DNV GL © 2014 Signs of Hope Paths to the Future 2
- 3. Barriers: Cognitive and Behavioral DNV GL © 2014 3
- 4. Barriers: Governmental DNV GL © 2014 4
- 5. Barriers: Economic and Market DNV GL © 2014 5
- 6. Signs of Hope DNV GL © 2014 6
- 7. Signs of Hope: Decentralisation DNV GL © 2014 7 Utility of the Past: Rail System Utility of the Future: Automobile We’re assisting an industry grappling with the complexity of decentralisation in a time of changing regulations and increasing environmental requirements.
- 8. Signs of Hope: Shedding Old Ways DNV GL © 2014 8
- 9. Signs of Hope: Collaboration DNV GL © 2014 9
- 10. Paths to the Future: Tangible Tools Hazard analysis DNV GL © 2014 Identification of: • climate change effects that are relevant for the components of interest • Global climate models and regional climate models that best or satisfactorily capture these effects • the subset of GCMs and RCMs that are useful for the region of interest 10 Vulnerability analysis Oil &Gas Changing waves Changing wind Changing water levels Maritime Changing waves Changing wind Ports & Costal Changing waves Changing wind Changing water levels Changing precipitation Electricity Hurricanes Changing sea levels Heat waves Droughts Winter storms Identification of risk control options (how to adapt) and Estimation of the cost of risk reduction measures 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 Sensi tive habi tats Sensi tive habi tats A rational framework for evaluating climate change adaptation measures. -6 E + 25 Sensi tive habi tats The framework provides actionable information to decision-makers. Outcome Forecasting distributions for forces at the location of interest (20, 50, 100 years) Wind Waves Sea level Precipit. 0 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 0 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 0 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 0 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 IPCC Global Emission Pathways: A1 A2 B1 B2 A1T A1B A1F1 … Estimating risk ($): Total, for different consequences, and for different causes -6 E + 25 Accident response Noise Infrastructure Ship types Sensi tive habi tats -6 E + 25 Accident response Noise Infrastructure Ship types Accident response Noise Infrastructure Ship types -6 E + 25 Accident response Noise Infrastructure Ship types $ Emission Scenarios Climate Change Scenarios Hazard Identification Climate Risk Factors Risk Assessment Decision Analysis Adaptation reduces vulnerability Vulnerability analysis Risk analysis Adaptation analysis
- 11. Long Island Flooded Areas 2012 – 2050 DNV GL © 2014 11 “Flooded” substations 2012 Sandy storm event “Dry” substations 2012 Sandy storm event
- 12. Paths to the Future: Tangible Tools DNV GL © 2014 12
- 13. Paths to the Future: Advance Gender Equality DNV GL © 2014 13
- 14. Paths to the Future: Practice Long-term Collaborative Governance on our Oceans DNV GL © 2014 14
- 15. Thank you! DNV GL Safe and Sustainable Future Report: http://dnvgl.com/technology-innovation/ Elizabeth Durney Elizabeth.durney@dnvgl.com +31 26 356 6143 www.dnvgl.com SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2014 strategic-projects/sustainable-future 15
- 16. Supporting slides DNV GL © 2014 16
- 17. Planetary Boundaries Source: Rockstrom et al 1009 DNV GL © 2014 17
- 18. Global Wealth Pyramid: Widening Disparities DNV GL © 2014 18 Source: Credit Suisse 2012
Editor's Notes
- Cognitive Bias: Human nature has a habit of forming opinions based on past experience, inhibiting our ability to adopt new practices, innovations or understandings. In a rapidly changing, world, however, we cannot rely on a mirror to carve out the best strategies for the future Human centric view of nature: We have a tendency to view ourselves as separate than nature and this contributes to a future to value natural resources and ecosystems in a way that adequately reflects on resilience on them.
- Collaboration within and between governments business and civil society is of insufficient depth to solve the complex sustainability challenges we face.
- Going from one conductor and one route, to infinite options and personalization. In the past, electricty generation and delivery was owned by utiltiies (centralised control) and in the future, consumers will have much more power over their own ownership (they can build their own power plant on their roof or in their yard) and can decide when to use their power, when to sell to the grid, and maybe in some places, there won’t even be a grid. For example, Africa may leapfrog and go to the cell phone model of electricity with large scale compeltely decentralised microgrids, not connected to a distribution grid.
- This is the overview of the DNV framework Modify the slide to reflect the new scenarios