Early Warning and the Human Factor - people-centered warning systems and awareness are key

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Munich Re Foundation Basics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Munich Re Foundation

Munich Re Foundation Basics Munich Re Foundation Our Topics Disaster prevention Population development Poverty Environmental and climate change Water: Resource and risk factor Urbanisation and megacities

Munich Re Foundation Munich Re Foundation Early Warning and the Human Factor 2. Hurricane Katrina Quelle: http://www.flickr.com/photos/znaddanz/

Forecast success! Munich Re Foundation Source: http://www.sptimes.com/2005/08/30/State/For_forecasting_chief.shtml Early Warning and the Human Factor

Hurricane Katrina Losses US$ 125,000,000,000 covered US$ 65,000,000,000 Munich Re Foundation

Munich Re Foundation Source of all pictures: http://www.nola.com/katrinaphotos/ap/ Hurricane Katrina Losses 1280 victims

Munich Re Foundation Munich Re Foundation 3. The Tonga RANET Warning System Early Warning and the Human Factor

November 2008 The Tonga RANET Warning System Staying connected during severe weather

November 2008 The September 2009 Tsunami Affecting Islands of Tonga

Munich Re Foundation Munich Re Foundation Early Warning and the Human Factor Mozambique flood warning system

Mozambique Flood Warning Project Modules Munich Re Foundation

Munich Re Foundation Munich Re Foundation Epilogue Early Warning and the Human Factor

Visit our website at www.munichre-foundation.org Thank you!

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Presentation to the 2018 Floodplain Management Australia National Conference held on the Gold Coast, Australia. Abstract: The lead guiding document for the development of the Total Flood Warning System (TFWS) in Australia is ‘Manual 21 – Flood Warning’ (Attorney-General’s Department, 2009). According to Manual 21, the TFWS consists of six components: Prediction; Interpretation; Message Construction; Communication; Response; and, Review. In a review of these TFWS components in relation to the findings of previous social research and government inquiries into flood warning in Australia, Molino et al. (2011) identified a further six components of a TFWS: Understanding the Flood Risk; Emergency Management Planning; Community Flood Education; Data Collection; Community Participation in the TFWS; and, Integration of the TFWS Components. The twelve components have since been tested in the assessment of existing warning systems and the development of TFWSs for several communities across Australia. This paper provides a summary of the findings from these projects with a particular emphasis on the successes and challenges involving the more community-related TFWS components such as Understanding the Flood Risk, Community Flood Education and Community Participation. For example, the TFWS assessments found that: • Up to 20% of people living in floodplains were unaware of their flood risk • Community flood education tended to rely on the provision of information • There was little community participation in flood warning systems. The findings demonstrated the need to engage with communities about all twelve TFWS components and this paper concludes by explaining how this could be best done using tailored techniques.

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The challenge in disaster early warnings is to make the best possible decisions quickly using imperfect information. With lives and livelihoods at stake, there is much pressure to get it right. But one can’t be timely and perfectly accurate at the same time. We have come a long way since the devastating Boxing Day tsunami of December 2004 caught Indian Ocean countries by surprise. Many of the over 230,000 people killed that day could have been saved by timely coastal evacuations. The good news is that advances in science and communications technology, greater international cooperation, and revamped national systems have vastly improved tsunami early warnings during the past decade. However, some critical gaps and challenges remain. The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWS) was set up in 2005 under UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. Over USD 400 million has been invested in state of the art equipment for rapid detection and assessment. However, the system’s overall effectiveness is limited by poor local infrastructure and lack of preparedness. Some countries also lack efficient decision-making for issuing national level warnings based on regionally provided rapid assessments. Warnings must reach communities at risk early enough for action. False warnings can cause major economic losses and reduce compliance with future evacuation orders. Only governments can balance these factors. It is important that there be clearer protocols within governments to consider the best available information and make the necessary decisions quickly. Now, the proliferation of information and communication technologies (ICTs) is making this delicate balance even more difficult. To remain effective in the always-connected and chattering Global Village, disaster managers have to rethink their engagement strategies. Controlled release of information is no longer an option for governments. In the age of 24/7 news channels and social media, many people will learn of breaking disasters independently of official sources. Some social media users will also express their views instantly – and not always accurately. How can this multiplicity of information sources and peddlers be harnessed in the best public interest? What are the policy options for governments, and responsibilities for technical experts? How to nurture public trust, the ‘lubricant’ that helps move the wheels of law and order - as well as public safety - in the right direction?

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Early Warning and the Human Factor - people-centered warning systems and awareness are key

1. Early Warning and the Human Factor People-centered warning systems and awareness are key Christian H. Barthelt Thomas R. Loster

4. Munich Re Foundation Basics Munich Re Foundation Our Topics Disaster prevention Population development Poverty Environmental and climate change Water: Resource and risk factor Urbanisation and megacities

5. Munich Re Foundation Munich Re Foundation Early Warning and the Human Factor 2. Hurricane Katrina Quelle: http://www.flickr.com/photos/znaddanz/

6. Forecast success! Munich Re Foundation Source: http://www.sptimes.com/2005/08/30/State/For_forecasting_chief.shtml Early Warning and the Human Factor

7. Hurricane Katrina Losses US$ 125,000,000,000 covered US$ 65,000,000,000 Munich Re Foundation

8. Munich Re Foundation Source of all pictures: http://www.nola.com/katrinaphotos/ap/ Hurricane Katrina Losses 1280 victims

9. Munich Re Foundation Munich Re Foundation 3. The Tonga RANET Warning System Early Warning and the Human Factor

10. Munich Re Foundation

11. November 2008 The Tonga RANET Warning System Staying connected during severe weather

12. November 2008 The September 2009 Tsunami Affecting Islands of Tonga

13. Munich Re Foundation Munich Re Foundation Early Warning and the Human Factor Mozambique flood warning system

14. Mozambique Flood Warning Project Modules Munich Re Foundation

15. Munich Re Foundation

16. Münchener Rück Stiftung 19. April 2008

17. Munich Re Foundation Munich Re Foundation Epilogue Early Warning and the Human Factor

18. Munich Re Foundation

19. Munich Re Foundation

20. Visit our website at www.munichre-foundation.org Thank you!

Editor's Notes

People are ultimately at the core of what the foundation’s work is all about. The foundation’s task is to minimize the risks to which they are exposed. It clarifies issues and provides support, also in developing countries.
Our activities concentrate on four fields. These reflect the demands made on the Foundation. Knowledge accumulation and implementation, Clarification and sensitisation, Networking, Direct help and support
Underestimation (destructive power of the storm) Hope or set of beliefs Age Disability Fear of pilferage Inability to organize (e. g. large families) Lack of transportation Lack of willpower

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