1. Modelling Individual Consumer Behaviour Email: [email_address] ; [email_address] 26 th August 2009 School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Kirk Harland Alison Heppenstall
2.
3.
4. School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT ESRC First Time Grant Oct 2008 – Oct 2010 Assess different methods of generating population Create population incorporating commercial marketing survey dataset Generate agent rule-sets Replace aggregate demand-side of model with ‘individual’ agents Optional extra… incorporate realistic road network for agents to traverse
8. School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Constraints MLSOA: 106 LLSOA: 476 OA: 2439 Constraint DR CP SA CE % CE CE % CE CE % CE Middle Layer Super Output Area Gender 29,510 4.12 102 0.01 0 0.00 Ethnic Group 14,897 2.08 2,290 0.32 0 0.00 Age 128,999 18.03 144 0.02 0 0.00 Marital Status 95,335 13.33 478 0.07 0 0.00 NSSEC 84,731 11.84 4,378 0.61 0 0.00 Highest Qualification 229,407 32.07 2,569 0.36 0 0.00 Lower Layer Super Output Area Gender 30,297 4.23 176 0.02 0 0.00 Ethnic Group 15,631 2.18 4,010 0.56 0 0.00 Age 131,230 18.34 245 0.03 0 0.00 Marital Status 96,453 13.48 842 0.12 0 0.00 NSSEC 88,282 12.34 9,659 1.35 0 0.00 Highest Qualification 228,425 31.93 5,219 0.73 0 0.00 Output Area Gender 33,430 4.67 245 0.03 0 0.00 Ethnic Group 16,707 2.34 5,292 0.74 0 0.00 Age 135,673 18.96 418 0.06 0 0.00 Marital Status 98,696 13.80 1,828 0.26 0 0.00 NSSEC 95,117 13.30 21,939 3.07 0 0.00 Highest Qualification 227,720 31.83 11,385 1.59 0 0.00
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15. School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT References Birkin, M., and Clarke, M. 1988 , SYNTHESIS-a synthetic spatial information system for urban and regional analysis: methods and examples, Environment and Planning A , 20, pp 1645-1671 Birkin, M., and Clarke, M. 1989 , The Generation of Individual and Household Incomes at the Small Area Level using Synthesis, Regional Studies , 23:6, pp 535-548 Harland, K, Birkin, M.H., Smith, D.M. and Heppenstall, A.J., Creating realistic synthetic populations at Varying Spatial Scales: A comparative critique of population synthesis techniques. In review. Heppenstall, A.J., Evans, A.J. and Birkin, M.H. (2005), A Hybrid Multi-Agent/Spatial Interaction Model System for Petrol Price Setting. Transactions in GIS 9(1): 35 - 51. Heppenstall, A.J., Evans, A.J. and Birkin, M.H., (2006) Application of Multi-Agent Systems to Modelling a Dynamic, Locally Interacting Retail Market. JASSS. vol 9(3). Malleson, N.S., Heppenstall, A.J., and See, L.M., Simulating Burglary with an Agent-Based Model. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems. In press. Press, W. H., Teukolsky, S. A., Vetterling, W. T., and Flannery, B. P. 1992 , Numerical Recipes in C: The Art of Scientific Computing. 2 nd Edition. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, England Schmidt, B. ( 2000). The Modelling of Human Behaviour. SCS Publications, Erlangen, Germany. Smith D., Clarke G., and Harland K. (2009) Improving the synthetic data generation process in spatial microsimulation models. Environment and Planning A . 41. pp 1251-1268 Stillwell, J. C. H., Duke-Williams, O. (2007) Understanding the 2001 UK census migration and commuting data: the effect of small cell adjustment and problems of comparison with 1991, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 170: pp 1–21. Urban, C, (2000). PECS: A reference model for the simulation of multi-agent systems. In Ramzi Suleiman, Klaus G. Troitzsch, and Nigel Gilbert, editors, Tools and Techniques for Social Science Simulation, chapter 6, pages 83–114. Physica-Verlag.
16. School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Model Structure – Flexible Modelling Framework
17. School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Model Structure – Flexible Modelling Framework
18. School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Model Structure – Flexible Modelling Framework