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1. Space Environment
Lecture 43 – Space Debris (Vol. 4)
Evolutionary models: DAMAGE
Professor Hugh Lewis
SESA3038 Space Environment

2. Overview of lecture 43
• In this lecture we have an overview of the DAMAGE evolutionary model
– There is a quick look at the history and similar models in use worldwide
– We introduce the support models that provide the complexity
– We look at the operation of the model
• In the next few lectures we will look at the algorithms behind each of the
major support models
Space Environment – Space Debris (Vol. 4)

3. DAMAGE Space Environment – Space Debris (Vol. 4)
Debris Analysis and Monitoring Architecture to the Geosynchronous Environment
• Microsoft Windows application
• C++, OpenGL and Microsoft Foundation Classes
• Can perform a 200-year future projection in ~2 hours on i7 Intel processor:
• one Monte Carlo simulation of a mitigation case for objects ≥ 10 cm
• Has run on Iridis-3 (75 PC cores), enabling 20,000 MC simulations in one to two
months or 100 MC simulations in ~hours

4. DAMAGE Space Environment – Space Debris (Vol. 4)
• Initial motivation: to investigate the long-term evolution of the debris environment in
High Earth Orbit (HEO)
• Funding from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
• Principal Investigator: Dr Graham Swinerd
• Researcher: Dr Hugh Lewis
• Three-year project commenced in October 1999
• Development still continuing (!)
• Used to support UK Space Agency’s role in IADC since 2004

5. DAMAGE Space Environment – Space Debris (Vol. 4)

6. Similar models Space Environment – Space Debris (Vol. 4)
Other evolutionary models (used for IADC studies):
• Aerospace Corporation:
• Aerospace Debris Environment Projection Tool (ADEPT)
• ASI/CNR:
• Space Debris Mitigation (SDM) Long-Term Evolution Model
• CNES:
• Modeling the Evolution of Debris on Earth's Environment (MEDEE)
• CNSA:
• Space Objects Long-term Evolution Model (SOLEM)
• DLR/Technical University of Braunschweig:
• Long-term Utility for Collision Analysis (LUCA)

7. Similar models Space Environment – Space Debris (Vol. 4)
Other evolutionary models (used for IADC studies):
• ESA:
• Debris Environment Long-Term Analysis (DELTA)
• JAXA/Kyushu University:
• Near-Earth Orbital Debris Environment Evolutionary Model (NEODEEM)
• NASA:
• LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model (LEGEND)

8. Support models Space Environment – Space Debris (Vol. 4)
What elements are needed
for an evolutionary model?
• Satellites (including debris)
• Orbital propagator
• Collision prediction method
• Break-up model
• Failure model
• Traffic model
• Explosion model
• CONOPS model
• More…

9. Support models Space Environment – Space Debris (Vol. 4)
Launch
traffic
Initial
population
Explosions
Collision
prediction
Break-up
model
Current
population
Propagate
Failure
model
Collision
data
Failure
data
Non-frag
Source models
Population
data

10. Overview of lecture 43
• In this lecture we have an overview of the DAMAGE evolutionary model
– There is a quick look at the history and similar models in use worldwide
– We introduce the support models that provide the complexity
– We look at the operation of the model
• In the next few lectures we will look at the algorithms behind each of the
major support models
Space Environment – Space Debris (Vol. 4)

11. Activity
• You can download DAMAGE from the
blackboard site and run some
simulations:
– Two simulation scenarios are
provided: LEO & Starlink
– Full instructions are provided
– We look at the operation of the model
• This activity is not compulsory!
• Please do not re-distribute any of the
simulation files or the DAMAGE model
Space Environment – Space Debris (Vol. 4)