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Vulnerability Assessment and Strategic Environmental Assessment
- 1. Addressing climate change in Nigeria: Vulnerability Assessment and SEA Adedamola Aderiye School of Environmental Sciences
- 2. Background Climate change is happening • Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases • The magnitude of impact varies in terms of geographical location, seasonality, population exposure and development pathways - IPCC, 2007
- 3. Background • Climate change will have a net negative impact on developing countries. • African countries are the most vulnerable to the most damaging impacts of climate change, due to the variable climate, propensity for drought and desertification, rapid population growth, endemic poverty, dependence on subsistence agriculture, complex governance and institutional dimensions • Climate change does not yet feature prominently in developing agenda or policies of most African countries
- 4. Issues arising • What is stakeholder perspective of climate change and other associated risk? • Is there a framework that can provide guidance to Nigeria on how to address current and future vulnerability to climate change? • What are the criteria influencing spatial planning policy in Nigeria? • Are there any barriers in the integration of climate change concerns in spatial planning?
- 5. Objectives 1. To develop a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in spatial planning. 2. To use the framework for evaluating spatial/land use plans in Lagos and two other Nigerian city regions.
- 6. 3. To determine the elements of SEA that are currently reflected in the spatial plan regime in Nigeria and to establish if there are links between the elements and the extent to which climate change vulnerability is considered. 4. To propose recommendations on how best to integrate climate change concerns into spatial planning in Nigeria. Objectives
- 7. Methodology The label attached to a particular research strategy is not as important as its appropriateness for the research to be carried out – Saunders et al. (2009) Philosophical inclination- Pragmatic worldview The main vehicles to be employed in this research are documentary analysis of literature, qualitative interviews with policy makers and regulators, and survey of SEA and Vulnerability experts.
- 8. Research design Objective 1 Devise a climate change vulnerability framework. Objective 2 Evaluate spatial land use plans in Lagos and two other regions. Objective 3 Establish elements of SEA in existing spatial planning Objective 4 Recommend how to integrate climate change concerns into spatial planning Use framework to Link theory with practice by interviewing Town Planning regulators and Policy makers Research findings are validated through survey of SEA practitioners Determine if the elements exist in practice Examine if they identify climate change vulnerability Literature review and development of analytical framework
- 9. Preliminary findings • Little or no attention is paid to climate change in Nigeria • The scant climate change incentive is driven by international agreements and financing requirements • No framework or criteria in place to assess climate change vulnerability in a developing country context • Social vulnerability cannot exist in isolation from biophysical vulnerability • Structures and processes in a location, play an important role in determining the magnitude of climate change experienced
- 10. Exposure Geographical context Biophysical vulnerability Social vulnerability Coupled human- environment system Disaster Eventual vulnerability to climate change Adaptive capacity Vulnerability reduction Climate exposur e Structures and processes Coping capacity
- 11. Exposure Geographical context Biophysical vulnerability Social vulnerability Coupled human- environment system Disaster Eventual vulnerability to climate change Adaptive capacity Vulnerability reduction Risk identificatio n and assessment Risk evaluation Climate exposur e Structures and processes Laws and Policies Coping capacity
- 13. Questions
- 14. Spatial dimension of Vulnerability Resilience Sensitivity Factors controlling susceptibility Exposure Coping capacity Geographic context Biophysical vulnerability Social vulnerability Economic Environmental Social Hazard potential Coupled human- environment system Structures & Processes Dynamic pressures / Non- climatic stress Failure to cope Adaptive capacity Vulnerability reduction e.gseawall barrier e.gtreeplanting e.gawareness INTERVENTION e.glandusechange Risk identification, assessment & action Leadingtonewlevelsof vulnerability Potential for another hazard Disaster Eventual vulnerability to climate change The Preliminary Vulnerability Framework
- 15. Research area Nigeria Surface area – 923,768sqkm Population -168.8million GDP – US$459.6 billion (2012) Life expectancy – 52years Poverty percentage - 46% Vegetation- from near desert conditions in the north to swamp mangrove in the delta Source: World Bank
Editor's Notes
- What will happen to the developing countries of West Africa under the climate change scenarios currently envisaged? Despite the fact that these countries are not major contributors to climate change, they are the most vulnerable to the most damaging impacts of climate change; a situation aggravated by ‘having climates that are among the most variable in the world on seasonal and decadal time scales’ (UNFCCC, 2007). The vulnerability in the West African region is largely due to the propensity for drought and desertification, rapid population growth, endemic poverty, dependence on subsistence agriculture, complex governance and institutional dimensions (Denton et al., 2001). Despite the high volume of evidence available, it is surprising that climate change does not yet feature prominently within the policy or developmental agendas of the countries in the region (Beg et al., 2002). Although climate change concerns seems to pale in importance when compared to other developmental issues faced by these countries (Davidson et al., 2003), it is obvious that climate change and the associated disaster risks have great potentials of hindering future development (Beg et al., 2002; Brooks et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007). It is also clear that the changing climate will be a major factor influencing the worst of problems in the region including water shortage (Desanker and Magadza, 2001; Christensen et al., 2007), severe hunger and poverty (Agbola, 2011), health risks (Thomson et al., 2004) and conflicts (Ashton, 2002; Brown and Crawford, 2008; Oyebande and Odunuga, 2010). Therefore, rather than paying lip service to climate change under the millennium goal 7 (MDG), there is an urgent need to integrate the associated impacts in the local and national policies, plans and programmes (PPPs) for any meaningful development.
- Methodology reflects the overall research strategy which has taken the theoretical, philosophical and ethical dimensions into consideration (Henn et al., 2006). However, methods are the specific research techniques (Silverman, 2000: 79) that have been selected as the best fit for solving the research problems.