Update from the North American Drought Monitor
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Update from the North American Drought Monitor
- 1. Update from the North American Drought Monitor Presented to the USDM Forum April 2015 – Reno Nevada Trevor Hadwen Agroclimate Specialist, National Agroclimate Information Service Science and Technology Branch Agriculture and Agro-Food Canada
- 2. 2 Outline • The North American Drought Monitor (NADM) • The North American Climate Services Partnership (NACSP) • The Mexican Drought Monitor (MDM) • The Canadian Drought Monitor (CDM)
- 3. North American Drought Monitor • The NADM is a cooperative effort between drought experts in Canada, Mexico and the United States • Modeled after the USDM, the objective of NADM is to monitor drought across the continent on an ongoing basis. • A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive drought map. • Initiated at a workshop 2002, NADM is part of a larger effort to improve the monitoring of climate extremes. • The NADM has been delivering monthly assessments of drought severity on since March 2003.
- 4. The North American Drought Monitor (NADM) is unique example of collaboration between 3 countries (US, CN, MX) in drought monitoring, made possible because each country have: BackgroundBackground extensive data networks with near-real time daily observations historical and near-real time data exchange operational drought analyses creating National Drought Monitoring products collaborative drought monitoring and research common OGC-compliant IT infrastructure (web, email, ArcGIS)
- 5. Preparation of the NADM Map & NarrativePreparation of the NADM Map & Narrative Lead author coordinates & prepares monthly continental map & narrative Author rotates each month between the partner organizations: NCDC, CPC, USDA, NDMC, AAFC, SMN Adjusts the drought depiction along the international borders, & integrates the national narratives into one continental narrative Iterative peer review process http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/index.htm l Map & Narrative available in the three languages (English, Spanish, French) http://www.drought.gov/nadm/
- 6. Drought at the International BoundariesDrought at the International Boundaries • Drought indices covering entire continent are needed – Continental Drought Indicators Same indices, analysis period, and methodologies - this consistency needed for depiction across international boundaries Station based indices - SPI, Palmer Drought Indices, Percent of Long-term Average Precipitation (Standardizing period is 1951-2001) - Data provided by MSC, SMN, NOAA, with NCDC computing the indices NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Vegetation Health NOAA/CPC Leaky Bucket Soil Moisture Percentiles
- 7. North American Drought Monitoring PortalNorth American Drought Monitoring Portal http://www.drought.gov/nadm/
- 9. NADM Portal Map Viewer Tool Overlays of NADM and Continental Indicators
- 10. North American Drought Monitoring Portal
- 11. North American Climate Service Partnership NACSP Objective: •The objective of this trilateral partnership between the U.S., Canada and Mexico is to facilitate the exchange of information, technology and management practices related to the development of climate information and the delivery of integrated climate services for North America. NACSP Goal: •to effectively respond to an increasing demand for accessible and timely scientific data & information to make informed decisions and build resilience in our communities. •Initial emphasis is on water.
- 12. The North American Climate Services Partnership • The NACSP was signed by Mexico, the US, and Canada in January, 2012. • Supports the vision / goals of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services • Mutual benefits of trilateral cooperation & capacity development. • The lead agencies are NOAA, Environment Canada’s Meteorological Services and Mexico’s metrological Service (SMN). • Although the Canadian lead is Environment Canada’s, AAFC is the lead for on drought.
- 13. NACSP Strategic Workplan (2013-2017) NACSP Strategic Goals 1.Foster the development of key partnerships with users and stakeholders. 2.Maximize the use of existing science and information by decision-makers 3.Prioritize activities based on identified gaps in service delivery and end-user input 4.Utilize Regional Pilot areas to implement a place-based approach 5.Create opportunities to share best practices and lessons-learned •Of the seven focus areas 2 are directly related to drought and the others will enhance drought monitoring capabilities.
- 14. NACSP 2013-17 Focus Areas 1. Rio Grande-Rio Bravo (RGB) Regional Pilot Area 2. Great Lakes Regional Pilot Area 3. North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) 4. North American Seasonal Forecast System (NASFS) 5.5. North American Drought Monitor (NADM)North American Drought Monitor (NADM) 6. Coordinated Global Daily Precipitation Analysis 7. North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook * Regional Initiatives ** Geographic Pilot Areas
- 15. NACSP Drought Initiative NADM is well recognized as an effective multilateral coordination effort. As such, NADM serve as the centerpiece for NACSP Drought Initiative Addresses continental drought issues – agricultural drought, disaster risk reduction, health, water resources Need for improved coordination of early warning, planning for water resources Linkages to NAEFS & NASFS (North American Ensemble/Seasonal Forecast System) Can we improve real-time exchange of daily data? Linkages to frequency of NADM production NADM linkages to geographic pilots (Rio Grande/Bravo & Great Lakes)
- 16. NACSP Focus Area 5: NADM Leads: Richard Heim (NOAA/NCDC); Trevor Hadwen (AAFC); Reynaldo Pascual and Adelina Albanil (SMN) Objective: To provide map and narrative products that assess drought conditions on the continental scale which assists water managers, agricultural interests and other user communities in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Four Current Activities 1. Scoping Activity 2. North American VegDRI 3. North American Blended Drought Indices 4. Drought Definitions & Indices Study
- 17. Scoping Activity Goal: to produce a discussion paper of role of NADM & relationship to other global drought information initiatives, programs, policy, & science in North America. Analysis will be done by each country. 17
- 18. North American VegDRI Goal: to expand Vegetation Drought Response Index to Canada & Mexico •In 2012 Canada and the US (AAFC, USGS and the NDMC) initiated a pilot project to determine if it was feasible to extend the VegDRI monitoring process into Canada. •We are currently working to expand the pilot to all of Canada. •There is interest in expanding this pilot to Mexico as well.
- 19. North American Blended Drought Indices Goal: To develop short- & long-term objective blended drought indices for all of North America. •These will help in the national drought assessments as well as cross-border analyses •The U.S.A. has been producing Blended Drought Indices in an operational fashion for some time. 19 Short-Term Blend 35% Palmer Z Index 25% 3-Month Precip. 20% 1-Month Precip. 13% CPC Soil Model 7% Palmer Drought Index Long-Term Blend 25% Palmer Hydro. Index 20% 24-Month Precip. 20% 12-Month Precip. 15% 6-Month Precip. 10% 60-Month Precip. 10% CPC Soil Model
- 20. North American Blended Drought Indices • Canadian blends are currently being produced monthly as an experimental product. • Canada’s blends are based on station data rather than climate district data as in the USA. • Currently we are trying to optimize the blends for different regions of the country. 20
- 21. Drought Definitions & Indices Study Goal: To improve the definition of drought for the diverse climate regions of North America including arid, semiarid subhumid, humid, subarctic and arctic climate zones. 21 This will be done through the development of a toolkit of drought definitions & relevant indices for North America, linked to GEO Drought Indices & Definition Study.
- 25. 25 Drought Watch Website www.agr.gc.ca/drought • The Drought Watch web site is one of AAFC’s most visited sites. • The site provide timely information on weather and climate conditions and impacts throughout Canada at a national and regional scales. • The site also includes information on best management practices for weather extremes. • The site includes various precipitation and temperatures maps, our National Drought Model products, and agroclimate impact maps.
- 26. The commitment to our NRT system is significantThe commitment to our NRT system is significant • Our NRT system began operation in 2006 • Data are currently collected and maps processed within 12 hours of availability (0600Z + 12 hours ~ noon CDT) • Output assists AAFC with weather impacts and related risks • Combination of automated and manual processes 26
- 27. Surface Soil Moisture (SMOS animated time series 2014) AAFC Produces Weekly, Bi- weekly and Monthly estimates April 1 to November 30 in near real time from SMOS satellite data Coarse spatial resolution – gridded at 0.25 degrees
- 28. • Integrates daily measurements of surface wetness conditions measured by microwave satellites to determine average and anomaly conditions Satellite Surface Soil Moisture Anomalies (SSSM)
- 29. 29 Remote Sensing Products: Available Weekly Crop Condition Assessment Program Statistics Canada
- 30. Agroclimate Impact Reporter • The Agroclimate Impact Reporter (AIR) application is an online tool for the collection and reporting of agroclimate impacts (including drought) across Canada. • Impact reports are collected through a network of registered and anonymous users as well as media input. 30 • The information gathered by AIR plays a significant and valuable role in evaluating weather and climate-related risks to Canadian agriculture and supports multi- million dollar policy and program decisions.
- 32. Next steps on NADM/NACSP-related activities • Finish the Drought Definitions and Indices Study. • Begin a discussion paper that identifies the role of the NADM and how it links to other global drought information initiatives, programs, policy and science in North America. • Continue to develop short- and long-term objective blended drought indices that are regionally appropriate. • SMN will be developing new indices including SPEI and the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). • The SMN is driving the creation of the National Center of Climate Services. Jointly are working on the creation of a center for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean. • Canada to expand assessments in the Yukon and North West Territory. • Attempt to increase the frequency to bi monthly. • Continue to increase gathering of impact information.
Editor's Notes
- The North America Drought Monitor (NADM) is a cooperative effort between drought experts in Canada, Mexico and the United States to monitor drought across the continent on an ongoing basis. The program was initiated at a workshop 2002 and is part of a larger effort to improve the monitoring of climate extremes on the continent and to provide an ongoing comprehensive and integrated assessment of drought throughout all three countries. The NADM is based on the successful US Drought Monitor. As with the US Drought Monitor, the North America Drought Monitor blends science and art. There is no one 'correct' way to measure drought. Drought indices are used to detect and measure droughts, but different indices measure drought in different ways, and no single index works under all circumstances. So the Drought Monitor concept was developed (by the National Weather Service in 1999) as a process that synthesizes multiple indices, outlooks and local impacts, into an assessment that best represents current drought conditions. The final outcome of each Drought Monitor is a consensus of federal, Provincial and academic scientists. Major US participants in the NA‑DM program include NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the US Department of Agriculture, and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Major participants in Canada include Agriculture and Agri‑Food Canada, the Meteorological Service of Canada of Environment Canada. In Mexico, the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (SMN ‑ Servicio Meteorologico Nacional) is the lead participant. Considerable progress has been made on the NADM since the initial workshop in April 2002. The NADM has been delivering monthly assessments of drought severity on an experimental basis since March 2003 (5 years now). Extensive work in research, development and team building is required to continue to improve and complete the process for defining drought severity across North America.
- Description The objective of this trilateral partnership between the U.S., Canada and Mexico is to facilitate the exchange of information, technology and management practices related to the development of climate information and the delivery of integrated climate services for North America. Teams have been established to enhance existing collaborative core capabilities/products and to begin work in two pilot areas with a focus on water resources.
- To address this growing need for North American climate, a Statement of Intent (SOI) was signed in January 2012 between the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Meteorological Service of Canada and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (SMN). This SOI articulated the intention of the U.S., Canada and Mexico to facilitate the exchange of information, technology and management practices related to the development of climate and water information and the delivery of integrated climate services for North America. This Partnership builds on the long-standing cooperation and existing collaborative mechanisms in the North American region to support decision-making with science-based products and services. NACSP consists of multiple teams managing a variety of collaborations. Although the leadership for the NACSP is provided by the three hydrometeorological services of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, the scope of the partnership is designed to be flexible and adaptive in order to include expertise from other organizations (i.e international, academia, private sector, non-governmental, etc.).
- Strategic Goals Three languages
- One of the primary challenges for monitoring drought across a large area with diverse climates is which drought indices to use, and even how to define drought. The tool kit will contain: a description of drought in the diverse climates of North America – from drought in wet climates to drought in dry climates, drought in hot climates to drought in cold climates – which addresses the varied perception issues associated with drought; a rational process (generalized methodology) for choosing which drought indicators to use in each sector and climatic type, thus aiding water managers and decision-makers in preparing a drought monitoring response.
- Recently the SMN has separated this two products (MDM and NADM) on the SMN web site. The Mexican Drought Monitor (MDM) is delivered twice per month, but the NADM continues on a monthly base. Common indices in MDM : Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Percent of Normal Precipitation, Monthly Mean Temperature Anomaly, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Health Index (HVI), NOAA/CPC Soil Moisture Leaky-Bucket Model, Reservoirs Levels Status (Water Availability by Conagua-GASIR). Other inputs: CONAFOR fire reports, SIAP agriculture status (growing season), local experts (Conagua’s Regional offices).
- The Goals of the CanDM were to: allow AAFC to continue to develop and report on Canadian specific drought concerns while still maintaining the Drought Monitor concepts and process, Provided the opportunity to introduce the drought monitor concept to a Canadian specific audience; increasing the use and exposure of the monitors, Allow AAFC to produce detailed information packages targeted to Canada with a emphasis on the Agricultural sector with the potential to expand.
- The Drought Watch website was established in 1998 to provide Agroclimate information on the Canadian Prairies to a wide variety of users. Current and historic climate data and related information products are accessible, understandable and can easily be used in decision making. Climate information is a factor in better management decisions for improved environmental, economic and social conditions. The impact of climatic variability on the environment is of great importance to the agricultural sector on the Canadian Prairies. Monitoring the impacts on water supplies, soil degradation and agricultural production is essential to the preparedness of the region in dealing with possible drought conditions.