Zhenghong Tang, Ph.DUniversity of Nebraska-LincolnNorth Central Climate Science CenterFort Collins, Colorado04-05-2013Planning for Climate Change:A Planner’s Perspective
Outlines• Research Questions• Geographic Scope• Methods• Policy Implications
Research Questions1. Climate Impacts for Playa Wetlands: How to prioritize playawetland conversation programs under climate change scenarios?2. Planning for Uncertainty: How well did U.S. state and local plansprepare for climate change and extreme events (drought)?3. Citizen Science: How to promote citizen engagement for climatechange through Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI)?
Research Question 1Climate Impacts for Playa Wetlands: How to prioritize playawetland conversation programs under climate change scenarios?(Where is a good place to install the pumping stations for wetlands?)• Geographic Scope: Nebraska 21 Counties (Rainwater Basin Area)• Methods: LiDAR technology & Geospatial simulation modelTang, Z., X. Li, Zhao, N., Li, R., Harvey, F.E., 2012, Developing A RestorableWetland Index for the Rainwater Basin Wetlands in South-Central Nebraska: AMulti-Criteria Spatial Analysis, Wetlands, 32:975–984.
Rainwater Basin WetlandsPlaya wetlands in the Rainwater Basin provide criticalhabitats for 12 million migratory waterfowls to rest and feed.
How to prioritize conservation programsunder climate change?
LiDAR TechnologyLightDetectionAndRangingVertical Accuracy- LiDAR : 15 cm- USGS 10*10m NED : 1-3 mHorizontal Accuracy- LiDAR : 1 m- USGS 10*10m NED : 7-15 m
Footprint No: 10015 in Butler CountyFunctional…. but changing….
Multi-criteria Restorable Wetland IndexVegetation TypesSoil TypesPotential water releasingDepression StatusHabitat ConditionData Source: RWB vegetation layer; Score Scale: 0.5-1.0;Measurement: Hydric vegetation in each footprint;Justification: Restoration priorities should be given to the footprint withhigher percentages of hydro vegetation.Data Source: SSURGO soil data layer; Score Scale: 0.5-1.0;Measurement: Hydro soil types in each footprint;Justification: Restoration priorities should be given to the footprint withrelatively wetter soil types.Data Source: Pits volume final 2010; Score Scale: 0.5-1.0;Measurement: Pit’s water volume in each footprint;Justification: Restoration priorities should be given to the footprint withlarger water volumes from modified pits.Data Source: Depression layer; Score Scale: 0.5-1.0;Measurement: Depressional land in each footprintJustification: Restoration priorities should be given to the footprint withlower topographical depression land areas.Data Source: AHS data layer; Score Scale: 0.5-1.0;Measurement: by frequency, percentage of functional area in afootprint, and absolute areas, by HAS in any year of 2004-2009 period;Justification: Restoration priorities should be given to the footprint withrelatively functioning habitat conditions in terms of the frequency,areas, and percentages.
8,875(75.5%)1,792(15.2%)901(7.7%)192(1.6%)Restorable Wetland Index (RWI)By number of footprints (and percentage)RWI: 2.5-3.0 (Lowrestoration potential)RWI: 3.1-3.5(Medium-lowrestoration potential)RWI: 3.6-4.0(Medium-highrestoration potential)RWI: 4.1-5.0 (Highrestoration potential)
8,208(69.8%)2,891(24.6%)322(2.7%)339(2.9%)Rainwater Basin Wetland Function Conditions in theAnnual Habitat SurveyNon-functional acres(0% )Medium-lowfunctional acres (0-50% )Medium-highfunctional acres (51-75% )High functional acres(>75%)
It provides a scientific ranking system forfederal/state/local wetland managers (USFWS, USDA-NRCS, USGS, NGPC, NDEQ) to implement the futurewetland conservation programs. It provides measurable evidence for Nebraska’s WetlandProgram Plan in implementing full hydrologicrestorations for wetlands.Policy Implications
Research Question 2:1. Planning for Uncertainty: How well did U.S. state and localplans prepare for climate change and extreme events (drought)?Tang, Z., Brody, S.D., Quinn, C., Chang, L., Wei, T., 2010, Moving from Agendato Action: Evaluating Local Climate Change Action Plans, Journal ofEnvironmental Planning and Management 53(1): 43-62.Fu, X, Tang, Z., 2013, Planning for Drought-Resilient Communities: AnEvaluation of Local Comprehensive Plans in the Fastest Growing Counties in theU.S., Cities (10.1016/j.cities.2013.03.001)• Geographic Scope: National Study (including the north central region)• Methods: Content Analysis & Plan Evaluation Protocol
Policy Implications:Local climate change action plans:High level of “awareness”,Moderate “analysis capabilities”Relatively limited “action approaches”Focus predominantly on the built environment(e.g. energy, transportation, wastes, and buildings)Pay little attention to the natural environment(e.g. ecosystem, agriculture, rural lands)
Components aNumber ofindicators Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Dev.1. Hazard Analysis 6 0.0 10.0 4.8 2.481. Vulnerability Analysis 8 0.0 10.0 5.4 2.181. Risk Management 30 1.6 9.4 4.8 1.81Total b 44 4.0 26.8 15.1 5.41(a: component score range: 0-10; b: total score range: 0-30)State Drought Plan Quality for Extreme Event
Policy Implications:Local/State Drought Planning:Limited awareness and preparedness for water shortages and droughtFail to integrate drought mitigation/adaptation strategies into theirlong-term development plansTypically address emergency responses wellGenerally weak in adaptation, involvement, implementation
Research Question 3:Citizen Science: How to promote citizen engagement for climatechange through Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI)?• Geographic Scope: Nebraska & National• Methods: VGI (Similar idea like “COCORAHS”, but in mobile platform)
Green Infrastructure My Rain Barrels My Rain GardensPlanning in a Geospatially Mobile-Enabled Society
Low Impact Development Atlas (Web-Mapping)http://web.uri.edu/riss/lid/lid-map/
VGI empowered by GPS-enabled electronic mobiledevices and location-aware social media/networks is animportant approach to monitor/report climatevulnerability and adaptation practices. It is still a challenge to link the technologies and citizeninterests.Policy Implications
(1) A Baseline-Tracking-Evaluation Database:Evaluate existing governmental plans/documentsin this region to build a baseline database totrack/compare future efforts in climate change(2) A Crowdsourcing Climate Adaptation AtlasUse mobile-based VGI platform to build an atlas forcitizens/stakeholders in climate change vulnerabilityassessment and adaptation implementationPotential Collaborations