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Drought monitoring & prediction in India_Vimal Mishra,IIT Gandhinagar_ 16 October 2014

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Drought Monitoring and Prediction in India

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Drought monitoring & prediction in India_Vimal Mishra,IIT Gandhinagar_ 16 October 2014

  1. 1. Drought Monitoring and Prediction in India Vimal Mishra, Assistant Professor IIT Gandhinagar vmishra@iitgn.ac.in
  2. 2. Drought: often among forgotten disasters Rajasthan in India, which has suffered five consecutive years of drought (The Hindustan times, 24th May, 2003). Of the 608 million people affected by disasters in 2002, 300 million were hit by drought in India. Source: BBC
  3. 3. Introduction Crops in India Wilt in a Weak Monsoon Season (Drought , 2012) Source: NY Times http://kmhouseindia.blogspot.com
  4. 4. Drought and Food Related Challenges Alarming food security threat in India …….. Source: International Food Policy Research Institute
  5. 5. Drought and Water Related Challenges Increasing water stress and depleting groundwater resources…….. Vorosmorty et al. 2008 Rodell et al., 2009
  6. 6. Problem statement: Necessity of Real Time Drought Monitoring • Rapid groundwater depletion (4 cm/year) between 2002 to 2008 • Low irrigation efficiency and high groundwater extraction • Higher dependency on precipitation and soil moisture • Real-time information on droughts may help in planning and decision making • Our country lacks a high resolution real-time drought monitor http://sac.csic.es/spei/map/maps.html http://www.imd.gov.in/section/hydro/dyna mic/seasonal-rainfall.htm Global Drought Early Warning System (Pozzi et al. 2013)
  7. 7. Approach Precipitation data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), NASA 0.25 degree, daily satellite based TRMM 3B42RTv7 product is used. Temperature data from Global Ensemble Forecast System Analysis (GEFS) 1 degree, daily, control condition, from GEFS is used. 1 degree temperature is regridded to 0.25 degree using Maurer et al. 2002 Both real-time precipitation and temperature are bias-corrected With respect to climatology from IMD Land Surface Model- The VIC model Macro-scale hydrologic model Sub-grid variability in land, vegetation, soil moisture, etc. can be defined statistically Water balance mode is used
  8. 8. Experimental Drought Monitor Operates at 25 km resolution at 1-day lag https://sites.google.com/a/iitgn.ac.in/india_drought_monitor/home Bias-corrected TRMM Bias-corrected GEFS The VIC Model Soil Moisture Runoff SPI SSI SRI Drought Monitor Fig: Flow-chart of drought monitor
  9. 9. Validation Agricultural drought is well comparable to remotely sensed Drought Severity Index (Mu et al., 2013) Fig: Comparison of drought indices from the Experimental Drought Monitor against the satellite based drought index (DSI) for the monsoon season drought in 2002 SPI SRI SSI DSI Shah and Mishra (2014)
  10. 10. Validation Monthly Scale Development of a robust drought index using precipitation, soil moisture, and NDVI SPI+SSI+NDVI= new drought index Shah and Mishra (in preparation)
  11. 11. Validation Weekly Scale Development of a robust drought index using precipitation, soil moisture, and NDVI SPI+SSI+NDVI= new drought index Shah and Mishra (in preparation)
  12. 12. Agricultural Drought- District level Fig: 1-month Standardized Soil Moisture Index on 24th September, 2014 in North-Central India Fig: Divisions of India, for viewing drought at district level Drought monitoring can be further improved using high resolution rainfall data
  13. 13. Precipitation Monitoring and Forecast Short-term precipitation forecast can help in multiple ways Severe flooding in Jammu and Kashmir due to heavy rain on 4th September Data source is TRMM
  14. 14. Short-term Forecast
  15. 15. Short-term precipitation forecast for HudHud Forecast Date: 9th October 2014
  16. 16. Short-term precipitation forecast for HudHud Forecast Date: 11th October 2014
  17. 17. Drought Forecasting Precipitation and Temperature forecast from NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Forced in LSM Fig: 7-day lead forecast of drought based on Soil Moisture Percentiles and Runoff Percentiles Shah and Mishra (in review)
  18. 18. Related publications 1. Shah, Reepal and Vimal Mishra (2014b). Development of an Experimental Near-real Drought Monitor for India. Journal of Hydrometeorology (preprint). http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0041.1 2. Mishra, Vimal, Reepal, Shah, and Bridget,Thrasher, (2014) Soil Moisture Droughts under the Retrospective and Projected Climate in India. Journal of Hydrometeorology, AMS (preprint). http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0177.1 3. Shah, Reepal, and Vimal Mishra, 2014a: Evaluation of the Reanalysis Products for the Monsoon Season Droughts in India. J. Hydrometeor, 15, 1575–1591. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0103.1
  19. 19. Thank you Acknowledgements Funding agency: Medialab Asia, Department of Information Technology Measurement to Management (M2M): Improved water use efficiency and agricultural productivity through experimental sensor network For more information please visit: https://sites.google.com/a/iitgn.ac.in/india_droug ht_monitor/

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