The document provides a monthly and seasonal outlook for April through July 2015 from the Great Basin Predictive Services. It summarizes recent weather trends, current drought and fire conditions, and the outlook for temperatures, precipitation, fuels, and fire potential over the next few months. It also provides an overview of changes to the Great Basin Coordination Center, including the merger of the eastern and western centers into one based in Salt Lake City.

1. MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOK
APRIL – JULY 2015
&
NEW GBCC OVERVIEW
U P D A T E D A P R I L 1 6 , 2 0 1 5
G R E A T B A S I N P R E D I C T I V E S E R V I C E S
G I N A M C G U I R E
S H E L B Y L A W
N A N E T T E H O S E N F E L D
Great Basin
Predictive Services

2. The Winter’s Ridge

3. Lake Tahoe Snowpack Summary

4. Lamoille Canyon Snowpack Summary

5. Departure from Average Greenness
2015 2014 2012

6. Temperature Precipitation
Recent Weather Trends
(past 60 days)

7. Water Year Precipitation

8. Snowpack (2015 vs 2014)
2015 2014

9. Drought Conditions (2015 vs 2014)
2015 20142015 2014

10. Drought Outlook

11. Recent Weather Trend Summary
 Average temperatures have remained above normal across the GB.
 Precipitation remained well below normal over the central portion of
the GB and near normal in some areas of southern ID and southern
UT.
 The snowpack continued to decline to 2-25% over the Sierra and
Nevada, and 40-65% over ID/UT.
 Extreme to exceptional drought continues over the western half of
NV and CA with moderate drought over much of the rest of the GB.
The drought has expanded over southern ID/northern UT with some
areas seeing severe-extreme drought.
 The drought conditions are expected to persist through the end of
July 2015 across most the GB.

12. Fuels
 Green-up ongoing across the GB, and started early in
2015.
 Despite the earlier start to green-up, the curing of the
fuels may still occur on time considering the transition to
a more showery pattern in the spring.
 A return to a more active weather pattern will allow
green-up to continue through April and even possibly
into May.
 Spring rains will likely bring more grass growth to the GB
than in recent years.
 The higher elevations are still extremely dry after another
very poor year for snowpack, especially over the western
half of the GB.

13. Temperature Precipitation
CPC 8 – 14 day Climate Outlooks

14. Temperature Precipitation
Long Term CPC Climate Outlooks
May - July May - July

15. Long Term PS Weather Outlook

16. Current Fire Danger
Fuel
Moisture
Fuel Loading
Recent
Weather
Trends
Currently low Fire Potential in all areas
due to cooler temperatures and green-up
and periodic winter precipitation.

17. April and May Fire Potential Outlook
 Normal large fire potential (little to no large
fire activity) through April/May, and maybe
into June in some areas.
 The weather pattern is shifting at the
beginning of April to a more active pattern
(more frequent low pressure troughs
moving through the GB bringing cooler
temperatures, wind and precipitation) and
this should keep a lid on significant fire
potential in most areas through April and
May.
 There is still a potential of significant larger
fires during strong wind events after
prolonged periods of drier weather at times
during April and May, but these concerns
would be of shorter duration.

18. June and July Fire Potential Outlook
 Large fire potential is expected to increase
by June/July in the higher elevations and
over the Sierra, western NV into ID.
 How early in June this increase takes place
will depend on the weather pattern, and
this time there still is a threat for cooler
troughs bringing precipitation in early
June.
 Spring precipitation will be monitored
closely as this will promote grass growth,
which is likely to be more than recent years.
 Any spring precipitation will not be enough
to alleviate any of the drought over the
western half of the Great Basin.
 The higher elevations still will be a concern
again this year due to drought and very low
winter snowpack again.

19. Anticipated Exceptions to a ‘normal’ start to
fire season for 2015
 ‘Below Normal’ across southern/southeast Utah
through May and possibly into June…which would
be a delayed start.
 ‘Above Normal’ over the Sierra and far western
Nevada and southwest and central for
June/July…which would be earlier than normal in
June, especially in the higher elevations.
 Potential ‘Above Normal’ across much of the central
and northern Great Basin for July/August.

20. New GBCC
 EGB and WGB merged as of January 1, 2015
 New physical center located in SLC (renovating new
facility underway)
 All GBCC located in center in SLC, except Gina McGuire
(meteorologist) will remain at the NVSO in Reno, NV.
 New GBCC website up and running, but still not
complete – continue to look for updates.
 Several positions in the new center still vacant. (center
manager, logistics (including a coordinator position),
meteorologist, admin, webmaster/GIS)
 All requests go through SLC office.
 New PS products.

21. Great Basin Meteorologists located in Reno and
Salt Lake City
 Great Basin Meteorologists
 Gina McGuire (Reno)– gmcguire@blm.gov
 Shelby Law (SLC) - slaw@blm.gov
 Nanette Hosenfeld (SLC)– nhosenfeld@blm.gov
Predictive Services contact phone number in SLC – 801-531-5320 (Shelby
and Nanette)
Predictive Services contact phone number in Reno– 775-861-6650 (Gina)
Detailed monthly/seasonal outlooks are
available on the GACC websites.

22. Home Page Outlooks Page
New GBCC Website

23. One GBCC Webcast
 Multi-Media briefing for
the entire GBCC
 Will focus on the main
areas of concern
 Focus is on days 1-3, with
extended outlook to 7
days (or longer if
significant changes are
on the horizon)

24. National Seasonal Outlook
One GBCC Local Seasonal
Outlook
No Change to National Seasonal Outlook

26. New ERC Map

27. Current Original PS Products
 Multi-Media Webcast - updated twice a week (daily
during fire season)
 Monthly/Seasonal 4 Month Outlook – updated at the
beginning of each month (PDF, PowerPoint, Multi-
Media Webcast)
 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Product (issued M-F
in May, and daily during fire season)

28. The End
S E N D Q U E S T I O N S / C O M M E N T S
T O
G I N A M C G U I R E , S H E L B Y L A W , O R N A N E T T E
H O S E N F E L D – G B C C
G M C G U I R E @ B L M . G O V
S L A W @ B L M . G O V
N H O S E N F E L D @ B L M . G O V