S4C Colloquium Aveiro 2016 https://scientistsforcyclingaveiro2016.wordpress.com/ University of Aveiro (Portugal), Region of Aveiro (CIRA), ABIMOTA/Portugal Bike Value and the European Cyclists’ Federation (ECF) with its global network Scientists for Cycling (S4C)

1. Assessing the economic and
environmental impacts of
an e-bike sharing system
João-Pedro Ferreira
Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, Portugal
Gil Ribeiro
GOVCOPP & CIAUD, Department of Social, Political &
Territorial Sciences, University of Aveiro

2. Outline
 Introduction
 Case-study
 Estimation procedures
 1st
order impacts
 2nd
order impacts
 Conclusion

3. Introduction
 Growing concern regarding the multitude of problems
caused by motorization.
 Bicycle renaissance across the globe.
 Most studies concerning the impacts of bike sharing
systems assess the benefits of these infrastructures one-
dimensionally, discussing their effect either on congestion,
health, environment or urban attractiveness.
 Our goal consists in highlighting another important, yet
commonly missed, benefit of cycling besides these
referred ones.

4.  ≈550.000 inhabitants
 85 Km2
 4.000.000 tourists per
year
 Most important
Portuguese
employment center
 Many in-commuters
Case study
“Lisbon municipality”

5. Case study
“System Dimension”
 Dimensioning Criteria
Population, Service Area, Mobility
Generators, Cycling Infrastructure,
Distance between Stations, Overall
distribution, Bike/Dock Ratio, Asymmetric
Sizes
 Two scenarios:
 Scenario A: Ideal considering planning &
operational requirements
15KM2 – 174 Stations – 3120 Bikes
 Scenario B: 2015 Municipality of Lisbon RFP
12KM2 – 140 Stations – 1410 Bikes

6. Case study
“System Dimension”
 One key lesson to be learned from the experiences of
various cities is that the program scale may influence
the system attractiveness.
 The impacts and externalities of this system, as it is
well known, go far beyond the simple analysis of the
financial balance.
Implementation
Area (km2)
% Lisbon
Area
%
Population
considered
Total
number of
stations
Bike
numbers
Average
Number of
Daily uses
Investment
Operational
costs
Total
Balance
Scenario A 14,5 17,1% 28% 174 3120 ≈12 500 19 million € 5 million € X
Scenario B 11,6 13,8% 22% 140 1410 ≈5 600 9 million € 2,5 million €
Y

7. Methodology
 Our goal consists in assessing another important benefit
of bike sharing systems that has important (positive)
effects in western societies.
 National economies are affected by the consumption
and production of different products.
 If a certain product is imported, it contributes to the
reduction of the GDP while if a certain product is
locally, regionally or nationally produced it can have
important multiplier effects in that given economy.

8. 1st
order impacts
Savings and other (hidden) costs
 So, if households in a certain country shift their
consumption towards national production they will end
up benefiting their economy, production and,
consequently, employment.
 A bike sharing system is an investment that can have a
critical contribution to the decrease in the consumption
of products such as:
 Fuel
 Public transportation
 Cars and their parts
All this products are
imported or use a large
share of imported inputs

9. 1st
order impacts
Savings and other (hidden) costs
 Following the results and data observed in other
cities that recently implemented such systems, we
were able to estimate that the increase in bicycle
use would result:
 In a decrease in the use of private car
 3.655 car trips // 1.675 car trips every day
 7.822 kms // 3.219 kms by car every day
 256.943 Liters per year // 105 744 liters per year
 613 tones // 252 tones CO2 emissions every year
 At current prices
 334 000 € // 137 400 € saved every year

10. 2nd
order impacts
Indirect and Induced Effects
 To evaluate the macroeconomic effects of such changes
(affecting the household consumption pattern) we used
an Input-Output model to the Portuguese economy.
 Based on 2007 data Portuguese statistical data
 This modelling approach does not simply take into account
the direct effects but it also estimates the indirect and
induced effects that may result from changes in the
economy.
 More information in:
 Ferreira et al. (2014) Economic, social, energy and
environmental assessment of inter-municipality commuting:
The case of Portugal, Energy Policy

11. 2nd
order impacts
Indirect and Induced Effects
 Assumption: money saved by the households was now
spent in buying additional products.
 Consequence: the new consumption has a higher share
of locally produced, environmentally friendly products.
 So, the results including the multiplier effects
associated with the new consumption patterns allow to
estimate that:
 Scenario A
 515.000 € increase in the economic activity (GDP) per year
 Scenario B
 212.000€ increase in the economic activity(GDP) per year
 So, the scenarios have different macroeconomic
impacts and the most expensive scenarios can result in
a improved situation in economic terms.

12. Conclusions and Future Work
 This is still a preliminary work that needs to be
improved and the attractiveness and effectiveness of
both scenarios better explored.
 The proposed application is also suitable to assess the
impacts of bike sharing systems that are already
operating.
 Indeed, in such cases, it can benefit from better and more
reliable data.
 In economies dependent on oil imports, cities and
regions’ development grounded in the use of alternative
sustainable transportation modes contributes to a
supplementary positive effect.

13. Conclusions and Future Work
 This is still a preliminary work that needs to be
improved and the attractiveness and effectiveness of
both scenarios better explored.
 The proposed application is also suitable to assess the
impacts of bike sharing systems that are already
operating.
 Indeed, in such cases, it can benefit from better and more
reliable data.
 In economies dependent on oil imports, cities and
regions’ development grounded in the use of alternative
sustainable transportation modes contributes to a
supplementary positive effect.
SDG

14. Thank you!
joao.ferreira@fe.uc.pt
gil@ordenaracidade.pt