zerocarbonbritain2030_with audio
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zerocarbonbritain2030 is a positive, realistic vision for a society without fossil fuels, grounded in the latest climate science. Produced by the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT), the report is the first fully integrated solution to climate change and energy security for Britain. It demonstrates that society and our quality of life could thrive, whilst keeping Britain’s net greenhouse gas emissions at zero. This 12 minute presentation summarises the main conclusions of the report. The presentation was originally recorded for the Conference of Youth delegation at COP16 in Cancun. www.zerocarbonbritain.org.uk www.cat.org.uk
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zerocarbonbritain2030_with audio
- 2. Narrative • Stop climate chaos, don’t fly, don’t drive, turn off, climate Apocalypse, climate disaster
- 4. THE YAWNING CHASM POLITICAL REALISM PHYSICAL REALISM FURIOUS ACTIVITY ZCB
- 6. • zerocarbonbritain2030 is the first fully integrated solution to climate change. • It offers a positive, realistic vision grounded in the latest climate science. • It provides political, economic and technological solutions to the urgent challenges raised in tackling climate change What is zerocarbonbritain2030
- 7. • Big, structural change rather than small incremental reductions • No False Starts or dead ends • Break down barriers to renewable energy technologies • No Offsets, all local solutions • No Fossil Fuels! What is zerocarbonbritain2030
- 8. Where to start? • Where and what are your renewable energy sources - Energy Audit & valuation • What are its strengths & weaknesses • Design the system to work within these boundaries
- 9. • 56% reduction in energy use by 2030 • Sector by Sector: – Built environment – Transport – Land-use – Industry – Behaviour
- 10. • Natural materials low embodied energy & sequestration • Insulating - large-scale retro-fit programme. • Heat pumps • Thermal Comfort woolley jumpers • Energy Service Companies (ESCO’s) Built environment
- 11. • Change of energy source from fossil fuels- Electrification of cars, trains & LGV’s • Modal shift - private car to public transport, walking and cycling • No domestic aviation, 1/3 international on current levels Transport - overview
- 12. • 80% reduction of livestock products, particularly red meat and dairy • Localised food production Diet
- 13. Land use emissions - now
- 14. Land use emissions - zcb2030
- 17. • Britain has 40% of Europe's renewable resource in offshore wind • What is the value of this resource? • It has the potential to inject billions of pounds into the UK economy Tomorrow £196,000 Powering up - offshore wind
- 18. Tomorrow £196,000 Powering up - potential Source: PIRC Offshore Evaluation
- 21. • More stable & predictable energy price: not dependent on international markets & dwindling supply • No feedstock - more secure supply • Green jobs - hundreds of thousands in manufacture and service • Improved air quality Powering up - advantages
- 22. • Demand-side management • New renewables financing mechanisms upfront vs ongoing cost & discount rates • Changes to grid access for suppliers make beneficial for renewables • Variable electricity pricing - smart meters • Behaviour change - energy awareness Powering up - associated mechanisms
Editor's Notes
- We havent built a successful opposing narrative to the current dominant one. Without a picture of this promised land of renewable energy and warm homes change will be difficult.
- WE cant lurch from incremental cut to incremental cut. A small step here and a little change there really isnt going to solve this problem.
- We havent built a successful opposing narrative to the current dominant one. Without a picture of this promised land of renewable energy and warm homes change will be difficult.
- Zerocarbonbritain2030 is the first report to look not only at individual sectors in isolation and how they can reduce emissions, but also at how those sectors interact. How do cuts in one sector affect another. We’re reshaping the vision for the future, away from the apocalyptic doom, and giving form to what a decarbonised society could be like - prosperous, efficient, aspirational and a great place to live. We don’t want to hear that we must change our lives or doom anymore, we believe the scientists, we can see the changing weather patterns. We’re pushing for solutions as to how we can do that as a whole society, not just individuals.
- Too much focus is on small incremental changes. How we can cut a bit each year. This is a short-termist and possibly damaging way to deal with climate change. If we spend so long focusing on picking the low hanging fruit, we’ll realise further down the line we should’ve been building the ladder to get to the juicy ones at the top. We need to focus on the big changes, the infrastructure and industry that will be developed to deliver big reductions later. We need to project into the future, get an vision for where we want to be then backcast to what should be done when. Zerocarbonbritain2030 presents that vision, a future with no reliance on fossil fuels, and an energy abundance from renewable sources. Eventually, if we are to adequately tackle climate change, the UK and world will have to completely decarbonise. Which is where 80% cuts are misleading. By working to only 80% we may be locked into technologies and infrastructure that doesn’t allow the reduction of that extra 20%. An example is CCS, it can only deliver 80% reduction, some CO2 still escapes. An 80% target makes CCS attractive, but locks the uk into fossil fuel infrastructure that may make further cuts impossible. Zerocarbonbritain2030 reduces to zero nationally, without the need for international offsets. It can be done, with no magical technologies, we need the political will to make it happen.
- These are some of the major sectors we look at. Previously they’ve been siloed, and lots of fantastic work done looking at them in isolation. Zerocarbonbritain2030 explores the interactions between them. How do changes in one sector effect the others? How do they all work together to produce zero carbon.
- We don’t use our energy wisely. The UK is still caught in an energy mindset of sometime around the 50’s when it was cheap. Our bills keep rising, we keep sourcing from increasingly unstable sources, but we can make massive efficiency gains. It will be so much easier to manage a shift to low carbon technologies with reduced demand. The measures we propose also help to smooth our demand cycles, create warmer more comfortable homes and generally increase wellbeing. 56% requires some very ambitious projects and changes, but noone said getting down to zero was going to be easy.
- Our solutions are based around the synergies of sectors, and demonstrates the interactions and holistic approach to decarbonisation needed. We recommend a massive increase in the use of natural materials. These materials have a much lower embodied energy - the energy needed to create them. Materials such as wood, rammed earth and hemp-crete have small environmental footprints, are non-toxic, and also have the added advantage of giving a home a warm and natural feel. But where do these materials come from? What are the added advantages of using them? How will this change effect the rest of the energy system? In our scenario we’ve connected the dots, such as between building and land use, and the sequestration potential of natural materials. By locking carbon away in buildings in the from of wood and biomass we’re mopping up residual emissions. Assuming a high carbon price, there could be the situation whereby you would be paid to use wood and lock away carbon. This will require a revitalisation of the rural economy as these important materials are grown. More on that later. Again connecting the dots in the next point. The war-time style effort of retrofitting and insulating will help boost our ailing job market, and create thousands of jobs for tradesmen, builders and the building industry. If I was your average builder I’d be in the front-line of the demonstrations, its going to mean a LOT of employment opportunities. So finish up your bacon butty and get your placard.
- Swiftly on to transport. I do often think our system is rather archaic. In an age of satelite communication, CERN particle colliders and Big brother, why are we still exploding toxic substances. We’re like children with fire crackers. Surely we can come up with something better? The technology we use in our transport hasn’t changed since Henry Ford. When we talk about electric cars the days of the G-Whizz are over. Weird bubble cars out the Jetsons are outmoded. Our infatuation with beauty and speed can still be answered, but quietly and without the noxious smell. The technology is getting better, if we make a commitment to go in this direction, with the associated incentives to the industry and tax breaks to consumers, we could see very rapid leaps forward in making this technology a reality. Cleaner air, less noise, no massive tanker trucks on the roads, and free from the fluctuating oil prices that are beyond our control. This Sounds like a society I’d want to be part of. Again, theres lots of dots to connect up that we’ve explored. Where does the electricity come from? Can we deliver it? How much pressure does this put on the grid? What about heavy goods vehicles and their power requirements? I cant go into the detail of all these in this presentation, but this is how we should be thinking about decarbonisaiton. As a whole not lots of little parts.
- 100% renewables. No fossil fuels! It can be done, if we stop thinking about renewables as alternative technologies. We have the resources in Britain and europe to completely eliminate dirty fuels such as coal, oil and gas. This will generate jobs and revenue, keep us in control of our own energy supply and help stabilise prices.
- We must rethink our attitude towards the weather, this is our best energy supplier, and the regime that controls its arrival in our borders is much more stable than some oil producing countries. Britain has more offshore wind than we know what to do with. Recently estimated the size of our renewables resource as 2,100TWh. 2009 consumption was just below 400TWh. We havent even begun to exploit this resource. There is plenty of energy out there.
- We must rethink our attitude towards the weather, this is our best energy supplier, and the regime that controls its arrival in our borders is much more stable than some oil producing countries. Britain has more offshore wind than we know what to do with. Recently estimated the size of our renewables resource as 2,100TWh. 2009 consumption was just below 400TWh. We havent even begun to exploit this resource. There is plenty of energy out there.
- We have tailored the scenario around renewables that are suitable to Britain. Solar PV is not particularly effective here, but offshore wind is. It isnt a one size fits all system that we are promoting, but rather that each country looks at what technologies are most suited to its resources. This chart details only electricity supply. Nuclear is allowed to run till the end of its current life cycle, but no new nuclear generation capacity is built.
- This very complicated diagram is a Sankey diagram for our energy supply and demand. The thickness of the line indicates the no. of terawatt hours per source (left) to its end use (right). Note that the loses (bottom) are minimal
- In our scenario Britain would become a net energy importer of up to 17% of our energy, and could earn £7bn annually. Compare this to the predicted £70 billion pouring out the country if we still rely on fossil fuels. Electricity will be our major supplier of energy. At present it’s a mix of gas, oil and coal. Whilst we will be decreasing overall energy demand, our electricity generation capacity will double. This will be largely due the electrification of the transport systems and space heating.
- In our scenario Britain would become a net energy importer of up to 17% of our energy, and could earn £7bn annually. Compare this to the predicted £70 billion pouring out the country if we still rely on fossil fuels. Electricity will be our major supplier of energy. At present it’s a mix of gas, oil and coal. Whilst we will be decreasing overall energy demand, our electricity generation capacity will double. This will be largely due the electrification of the transport systems and space heating.
- Where to rom here? What does zcb mean? It is a positive vision for a carbon free society. We’ve seen the doom and gloom from age of stupid and others. What has been lacking is a tangible idea of what a zero carbon society will be like, and why you would want to be part of it. At CAT we deal with positive solutions, not focus on negative causes.