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LVIMA DPD 2015 - Quantcast
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Why it’s Time to Rethink the Funnel:
A New Perspective on Attribution
Brooke Lydon Bengier
July 16, 2015
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What is Attribution?
A rule-based or statistical method for assigning conversions
credit to media partners
A tool to optimize allocation of marketing budget across
channels/campaigns
The search for causation
A very difficult problem
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Current attribution models overview
Simple models Complex models
Last Touch
First Touch
First and Last
Linear
Time Decay
Position Based
Custom or Rule-Based
Statistical Model
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Attribution Vendors
(Google)
(Neustar)
(eBay Enterprise)
(AOL)
(ex DC Storm)
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Attribution models are still a work in progress
Missing touch points
Rewarding correlation instead
of causation
Not differentiating prospecting
and retargeting
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The consumer’s path to conversion
Upper Funnel
Prospecting
Lower Funnel
Retargeting
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Prospecting brings
qualified and incremental
leads to your site
Retargeting pushes site
visitors down to the
conversion event
Incorporating the “first site visit” is crucial
Retargeting
Prospecting
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The “first site visit”
signals the beginning
of retargeting
Retargeting
Prospecting
Split the Funnel
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Last touch attribution is outdated
All upper funnel activity
is missed
Multiple partners on the
plan “fight” to get last
touch
Retargeting
Prospecting
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Strike the right balance for splitting credit,
not just budget.
Split Credit for
each Conversion1
You Decide How
to Divide Credit2
Upper Funnel Credit
Lower Funnel Credit
Prospecting Phase
Retargeting Phase
Align your incentives:
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Example: Ad Server View
C
Last
Touch
Partner A
Partner B
Partner C
7
12
13 LAST TOUCH
Ad impressionsPartners
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Example with First Visit
C
Last
Touch
Partner A
Partner B
Partner C
7
12
13 LAST TOUCH
Ad impressionsPartners
Prospecting Retargeting
V V
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Standard Attributions with First Visit
CV
Last
Touch
Linear
Time Decay
U-Shaped
Prospecting Retargeting
V V
Algorithmic
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Split Funnel Attribution
Prospecting Retargeting
CVV V
Last
Touch
Split Funnel
Attribution
Last
Touch
Before
Visit
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Split Funnel Attribution
Prospecting Retargeting
CVV V
Last
Touch
Split Funnel
Attribution
Last
Touch
Before
Visit
First
Touch
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Split funnel works across all channels and models
Time Decay
Position Based
Linear
Statistical or
regression
Bottom Funnel Split Funnel
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Key Takeaways
Split funnel attribution makes this all possible
1. Know your funnel metrics - what is actually happening
2. Understand your funnel dynamics – what you want to happen
3. Set the right incentives to maximize your desired results – influence the
outcome
Let’s start by defining attribution. Attribution is a:
Method for assigning conversion credit to media partners
A tool to optimize marketing budgets
A way to validate that your digital campaigns drove conversions
…And also a very difficult problem.
There are a lot of different attribution models out there. Some are fairly simple, like
Last Touch which gives credit to the last ad that was shown before a conversion event
Or Time Decay which weights each impression progressively more
And then there are complex models based on complex rule sets and statistical models.
There are also a lot of attribution vendor options out there, each with their own varying methodologies.
But attribution models are still a work in progress because they are:
Missing touch points
Rewarding correlation instead of causation
And not differentiating prospecting & retargeting
So when we look at a consumer’s path to conversion as they move down the funnel from awareness, to consideration, to the eventual measured conversion event, we are really looking at two fundamentally different online targeting tactics: Prospecting, which is upper funnel, and Retargeting, which is low funnel.
Prospecting deals with potentially the entire addressable online population and requires its own unique data set to determine if a potential consumer will be receptive to your ad.
Retargeting, on the other hand, starts with a significantly smaller pool of potential candidates who have already visited your site, ultimately driving to a conversion event.
So if these two phases are so different, why do we measure them in the same way?
The beauty of online measurement, is that there is a natural delineation point for separation – and it’s called the first site visit.
At Quantcast, we believe the first site visit is unique because:
It is the first time a consumer interacts with the brand website
And, it touches every converting consumer on their path to conversion.
This is why it is the perfect point of delineation between prospecting and retargeting. It’s simple and it’s clean.
And because it is the precise start of the lower funnel retargeting phase it allows you to definitively separate the data and split the funnel in two.
Taking it a step back, the most widely used model today is still the basic last touch model.
The harsh reality is that last touch is outdated and very easily gamed.
All upper funnel activity is missed and partners on the plan “fight” to get last touch.
This ultimately creates the wrong incentive and a lose, lose, lose situation for all parties involved.
The consumer loses because they are over saturated with retargeting ads to the point of annoyance.
(We have all likely experienced a pair of shoes or other product following us around the internet at some point)
The marketer loses because their budgets are over allocated to those most likely to convert anyway.
The ad targeting vendors lose because they are forced to optimize to an inferior attribution game and significantly dulls their targeting toolset and potential.
By only rewarding the last ad it incentivizes everyone to focus on gaming rather than maximizing conversions as a team.
One of the most beneficial aspects of being able to distinguish between who contributed to a conversion from both the prospecting and retargeting phases is that now you’ve created a partnership between the two efforts. Each phase is rooting for the other to do their job.
The prospector brings a visitor to the site for the first time and if they don’t convert on that first visit they actively root for the retargeting partners to bring that lead across the finish line so that they can reap the rewards as well.
Same goes for the retargeters. Now they are yelling up at the prospectors saying “ bring me more qualified leads”.
You now have a holistic partnership where each leg of the race is rooting for the other.
This is how you properly balance your funnel and create an inclusive partnership between the two distinct marketing tactics.
By leveraging a transparent attribution system, you are incentivizing your targeting partners to differentiate between prospecting and retargeting, thereby ensuring that you are driving Net New users.
So let’s look at this practically. This is an example of an ad server view of the customer journey.
There are several partners on the plan, and Partner C gets credit through a Last Touch Attribution model.
Now let’s look at that same customer journey with Split Funnel.
In this new system we can see that partners A and B are full funnel and Partner C is a retargeting partner.
Ultimately they all had an impact on driving that conversion event but Partner A in particular drove a Net New user, which then Partner C pushed to a conversion event.
This more holistic view allows you to see the value of each partner.
Looking at this customer journey using some of the attribution methodologies mentioned earlier, Partner A, who drove a Net New user, may be seen as not an effective part of the marketing mix.
But I think we can all agree that it’s crucial to keep driving NEW users to the website to ensure that your retargeting pool isn’t shrinking and you’re driving incremental conversions.
There are many ways to look at split funnel.
You can just weight Last Touch Before Visit
OR you can also include First Touch as part of that model so you are valuing specific touchpoints in that customer journey.
The split funnel approach can also be folded into other attribution methodologies.
So if you take anything away from today, I hope it’s…
One, Know your funnel metrics – leverage the first site visit and know what is actually happening on your campaign for each leg of the race
Two, Use those metrics to understand your ideal funnel dynamics – This is what you want to happen in an ideal scenario
And three, Leverage the open transparency of split funnel to set the right incentives through measurement and credit allocation to maximize your desired results.