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Attribution & Measurement Strategy
Rachael Maltiel Swenson, former Head of Growth Analytics Flex Pool
November 2018
… but now what?
Purchase
on desktop
Day 0 Day 10
Impression on
Instagram
on mobile app
Click on
marketing email
on desktop
Click on Google
PLA on desktop
Click on
Facebook
retargeting ad
on mobile app
Marketing touches
(impressions, clicks,
opens, etc)
Conversion,
signup, etc.
Transaction
count, revenue,
or share thereof
Purchase
on desktop
Day 0 Day 10
Impression on
Instagram
on mobile app
Click on
marketing email
on desktop
Click on Google
PLA on desktop
Click on
Facebook
retargeting ad
on mobile app
Last touch 100%
Uniform fractional 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
U shaped 35% 10% 10% 10% 35%
Decayed 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
First touch 100%
Illustrative
Strategy ? Attribution
Strategy ↔ Attribution
Strategy → Attribution
I don’t know if I
should be driving
new customers or
revenue metrics.
We need to focus on the
long term customer value.
Some channels acquire
better long term customers.
Consideration is our
biggest problem as a
company.
We need to be able to
quickly allocate dollars
to channels that directly
drive transactions.
Attribution needs
to align with
incrementality.
Why is it so
complicated?
Mobile is so
important, but we
don’t invest
enough there.
No one
understands
attribution.
We should have
one model for
the whole
company.
Attribution drives the wrong
behaviors - if you retarget
existing customers, you get
the most credit, but that’s not
good for the company.
There’s no incentive for
channels to work together -
we’re all just doing our own
thing, practically competing
against each other.
They should only get
credit if the ad was
for the precise item
that was purchase.
❏ Who is a user? (cross device? cookies?)
❏ Winner takes all or multitouch approach?
❏ If multitouch, relative share methodology?
❏ Look back window duration?
❏ Channels to include? (emails? organic?)
❏ Touches to include? (impressions? opens?)
❏ Precision between marketing and purchase item?
❏ Variation by channel/user segment? (look back windows? weights?)
❏ Multipliers to adjust for incrementality?
❏ Include customer lifetime value?
❏ Others?
Examples
Encourage marketing that drives
longer term consideration?
Longer lookback window,
first touch
Examples
Quickly measure and funnel
dollars to results-driven
performance marketing channels?
Winner takes all with a short
lookback window
Examples
Encourage marketing teams to
work more closely together on
cross channel initiatives?
Multitouch attribution
Cross-device user measurement
Examples
Increase investment into mobile
marketing?
Examples
Focus team on incremental
marketing activities?
Model-driven incremental
attribution or multipliers to align
with incrementality
Q&A

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Rachael Maltiel Swenson

  • 1. Attribution & Measurement Strategy Rachael Maltiel Swenson, former Head of Growth Analytics Flex Pool November 2018
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. … but now what?
  • 5. Purchase on desktop Day 0 Day 10 Impression on Instagram on mobile app Click on marketing email on desktop Click on Google PLA on desktop Click on Facebook retargeting ad on mobile app
  • 6.
  • 7. Marketing touches (impressions, clicks, opens, etc) Conversion, signup, etc. Transaction count, revenue, or share thereof
  • 8.
  • 9. Purchase on desktop Day 0 Day 10 Impression on Instagram on mobile app Click on marketing email on desktop Click on Google PLA on desktop Click on Facebook retargeting ad on mobile app Last touch 100% Uniform fractional 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% U shaped 35% 10% 10% 10% 35% Decayed 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% First touch 100% Illustrative
  • 13. I don’t know if I should be driving new customers or revenue metrics. We need to focus on the long term customer value. Some channels acquire better long term customers. Consideration is our biggest problem as a company. We need to be able to quickly allocate dollars to channels that directly drive transactions. Attribution needs to align with incrementality. Why is it so complicated? Mobile is so important, but we don’t invest enough there. No one understands attribution. We should have one model for the whole company. Attribution drives the wrong behaviors - if you retarget existing customers, you get the most credit, but that’s not good for the company. There’s no incentive for channels to work together - we’re all just doing our own thing, practically competing against each other. They should only get credit if the ad was for the precise item that was purchase.
  • 14. ❏ Who is a user? (cross device? cookies?) ❏ Winner takes all or multitouch approach? ❏ If multitouch, relative share methodology? ❏ Look back window duration? ❏ Channels to include? (emails? organic?) ❏ Touches to include? (impressions? opens?) ❏ Precision between marketing and purchase item? ❏ Variation by channel/user segment? (look back windows? weights?) ❏ Multipliers to adjust for incrementality? ❏ Include customer lifetime value? ❏ Others?
  • 15. Examples Encourage marketing that drives longer term consideration? Longer lookback window, first touch
  • 16. Examples Quickly measure and funnel dollars to results-driven performance marketing channels? Winner takes all with a short lookback window
  • 17. Examples Encourage marketing teams to work more closely together on cross channel initiatives? Multitouch attribution
  • 18. Cross-device user measurement Examples Increase investment into mobile marketing?
  • 19. Examples Focus team on incremental marketing activities? Model-driven incremental attribution or multipliers to align with incrementality
  • 20.
  • 21. Q&A

Editor's Notes

  1. So you got back some successful results from an A/B test on your growth hacking initiative
  2. Time to celebrate!
  3. You need a way to continuously monitor without the expense and effort of an A/B test which also recognizes the robust ecosystem of broader initiatives and marketing within your company
  4. Realistically, your initiative exists amongst many others in your company. How do you continue to measure and optimize? This is an example of a touch stream where a user sees multiple ads across different websites and devices, seeing impressions on some and clicking through on others, and ultimately purchases 10 days later. If your initiative was one of these ads, how do you know that it continues to work after the A/B test is done and it’s just rolled into the ecosystem of multiple initiatives at your company?
  5. Attribution is defined as… basically, it’s the way of giving credit (or assigning value) to certain touchpoints (clicks, impressions, etc.) involved in a transaction or signup etc (desired outcome)
  6. Attribution is defined as… basically, it’s the way of giving credit (or assigning value) to certain touchpoints (clicks, impressions, etc.) involved in a transaction or signup etc (desired outcome)
  7. There are many different methodologies for attribution - how do you decide with so many choices? Spend time. Define what some of these are
  8. As some examples of possible credit… and this is before any more advanced modeling methods but just simple rule based options
  9. So how do we get to attribution? And what is the relationship with strategy? In order to get to the right attribution for your aims as a company, you need strategy to drive attribution.
  10. So how do we get to attribution? And what is the relationship with strategy? In order to get to the right attribution for your aims as a company, you need strategy to drive attribution.
  11. So how do we get to attribution? And what is the relationship with strategy? In order to get to the right attribution for your aims as a company, you need strategy to drive attribution.
  12. There will be many different perspectives - what focus are you trying to provide with attribution? Wall of words… but that’s what happens when you start conversations about how people feel about attribution and what should be done. Lots of different perspectives and opinions on what is needed. And there are obvious biases - a display team will care about including impressions, a paid search team will care about last clicks, a finance team will want it to be accurate and reflect incrementality or cause and effect. (more detail on what types of decisions exist)
  13. Need to decide major strategic elements to figure out direction of MTA. While surely not comprehensive, these are the pieces that I’ve found we’ve had to think about internally when making the strategic decision of how to build attribution. Some of these will be easy and obvious, some will be controversial and difficult to get to a decision. And some will be easy technically, some may require investment to get to what you want (for example, cross device). As you think about these, need to consider operational as well. A long look back window will result in delay of an answer. A complex model will take longer to process and not be able to be real time.
  14. So how do you do it? Talk to all involved, understand the strategy you want to guide dollars to and how to use attribution Then create a system and figure out how to work within it (multipliers, add LTV, different efficiency goals in different channels, etc) Attribution is tough - if everyone is happy, you probably did it wrong. Your goal is a system that meets your strategic aims that people can mostly live with and work within.