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Proprietary + Conļ¬dential
Workshop for clients, agencies & partners
Perform Like a Pro: align your business goals
with Google via Smart Bidding
Alex Urcola
Analytical Consultant
Andoni PeƱa
Performance Specialist
ā— Why is this key for any business? - 10 min
ā— Perform like a pro options - 40 min
ā— Cases - 15 min
ā— Summary - 5 min
ā— Questions - 5 min
Content
for Agencies & Partners
Why is this key for any business?
Not every customer brings the same value to a business
Customer 1
Value X
Customer 2
Value Y
Customer 3
Value Z
Some conversions do not matter as much to an advertiserā€™s business goals, while others
are of higher value and should be reported and optimized for accordingly.
You need to adapt bids based on value each
customer brings
Student
enrolled
Application
completed
Application
started
Request
info
Missed
opportunity
Student
enrolled
Application
completed
Application
started
Request
info
Reduces bids for low
expected value interactions.
Helps drive high quality leads in
a competitive landscape.
Over
investment
Conversion-based bidding Value-based bidding Value Bid
for Agencies & Partners
Is your mkt/business KPI aligned with
the KPI youā€™re using to optimize in
Google?
Can we go one step further?
Lead Generators Insurance
Sector
Edu
Current KPI
Leads/CPL
Final KPI
PĆ³liza
MatrĆ­cula
Intermediate KPI
Modelo
Predictivo
Revenue Generators Hotel
Sector
Ecommerce
Current KPI
Revenue/ROAS
Final KPI
High value purchase, Lifetime Value, etc
On+Off, Margin, profit, etc
Perform like a pro
Whatā€™s that?
The way to achieve your business
goals via data integration + Smart
Bidding
Revenue
Market Share
Customer Business
Objectives
Volume Proļ¬t
ā— Optimize depending on each business
reality, not on market inertia
ā— Crucial way to get a competitive
advantage thanks to the value of the
exclusive data your business has
ā—‹ Bid differently depending on
who are your best users
ā— A global return of investment for
every ā‚¬ on Google:
ā—‹ Search, Display y Video
Why is so important? How are the steps?
Understand
My Business Objectives
Prioritise CBOs, and their connection to
Customer marketing objectives and KPIs
Integrate
My Objectives Into A Holistic Solution
Requires cross-product solutions
aligned to Customer objectives
Measure
My Results in My Terms
Reļ¬‚ect performance of the solution
in Customer terms and KPIs
Perform like a pro:
Talk about business, not media
Track & value success
aligned with Customer
Goals
Use Machine Learning
to maximize efficiency
Expand
to all available Inventory
Set right Budget
& Target
to maximize opportunity
for Agencies & Partners
Perform like a pro options
How can we do this?
NON PREDICTIVE PREDICTIVE
Funnel qualification Margin/profit/on+off Lead scoring Customer lifetime value
EXAMPLE SIGNALS
ā— Query
ā— Location
ā— Device
ā— Browser
ā— OS
ā— Language
ā— Time of the day,
Day of the week
ā— 1P audience lists
(presence,
recency)
ā— ā€¦ and more!
ā— ā€¦ and
combinations of
there signals
Smart Bidding activation options: tROAS &
Max. Conv. Value
Auction-time predicted
conversion value
per click
BID
Search query level
performance across your
account or MCC
Contextual signals
at auction time
ROAS Target
Budget
for Agencies & Partners
How?
Steps towards bidding to Value
Create a 360Āŗ
View customer
Bid to Value Audience
Strategy
ā€œLet the data talk about your
businessā€
Use your 1P Audiences
to provide signals for
bidding
Align your
campaign bidding with
customer goals
Steps towards bidding to Value
Create a 360Āŗ
View customer
ā€œLet the data talk about your
businessā€
Capturing the right data throughout the entire
consumer journey is key to enable value-based bidding
It prioritizes the actions that are worth the most to your business
Drive online sales
Generate leads
Drive offline sales
Pages visited Time on site
Brochure downloads
Newsletter sign-ups
Phone calls Form submissions
Store visits Driving directions
Purchase
Increase
awareness
Sales-qualiļ¬ed leads
Data capture for a Lead Generation business
Offline
conversion
tracking
Online
conversion
tracking
Leads
Engaged visitors Pages visited
Newsletter
sign-ups
Web Behaviour
Phone calls Form submissions
Buyers
Qualified leads Marketing/Sales qualified leads
Closed deal
Data Capture for a Retail Business
Data Collection
Web
App
Store Client
level data
Advanced Analytics
LIFETIMEVALUE INSIGHTS
ā— Products bought by High LTV
customers in ļ¬rst purchase
ā— Promotion impact on LTV
ā— High LTV Customer Persona
ā— On/Off customer behaviour
LIFETIMEVALUE ROAS
ā— LifeTime Return per acquired
customer by channel
Steps towards bidding to Value
Bid to Value
Align your
campaign bidding with
customer goals
for Agencies & Partners
Ecommerce
Example: Online retailer
CPC
CPA
ROAS
Predictive
Actual
Net Sales
LTV
Margin
Scenario A: Retailer optimizing towards purchase value Scenario B: Retailer optimizing towards margins
Example: Online retailer - Bidding to Margin
In Scenario A, the advertiser is maximizing the purchase value Target ROAS
bidding. This allows bidding to understand the differences of each conversion
and hence increases ad spend on ā€˜Customer Bā€™ and ā€˜Customer Cā€™.
In Scenario B, the advertiser is going one step further and
optimizing towards margin, and hence has higher ad spend on
ā€˜Customer Bā€™ where there are higher earnings
Consider which data is readily available to you, to begin optimizing towards what matters the
most.
Purchase Margin
Sample Google Ads
Spend
Customer A $50 $20 $20
Customer B $100 $70 $40
Customer C $100 $30 $40
Purchase Margin
Sample Google
Ads Spend
Customer A $50 $20 $10
Customer B $100 $70 $60
Customer C $100 $30 $30
Value bidding: purchase value vs.margin value
NON PREDICTIVE
Example: Online retailer -
Bidding to Margin + Store Visits
FORMULA
NON PREDICTIVE
EXAMPLE
In-Store Purchase Rate
In-Store Average Order Value
Store Visit Conversion Value
(Set in GA, available in SA360)
70%
300USD
= (70% * 300USD) = 210USD
(i.e. 7 out of 10 customers who visit
your store make a purchase)
(i.e. your average customer spends
300 USD per visit)
Store Visit
Conversion
Value
In-Store
Purchase
Rate
In-Store
Average
Order Value
Value all customer touch points
in reporting and KPIs
NON PREDICTIVE
Online Sales
Digital Budget Online
Conv. Value
Online ROI Omnichannel ROAS
Store Visits Store Visit
Conv. Value
Offline ROI
Ad
Example: Online retailer -
Bidding towards LTV - What is CLTV?
PREDICTIVE
ā€˜Lifetimeā€™ usually starts at the day of
1st purchase
When calculating LTV (=CLV) we
must specify the time frame over
which it is calculated
Some often refer to Past Value of
their customers when talking about
LTV which then does not include the
ā€˜predictive elementā€™
LTV can be calculated both as a sum
of Revenue, or as a sum Proļ¬t
Order Value
$1
$4
$3
$9
$2
$8
Margin
Past Value Predicted LTV (pLTV)
$1
$4
FIRST 6 MONTH LTV
FIRST YEAR LTV
Example: Online retailer - Which customer
is more valuable to your business ?
CPA
Value generated in Month 1
$9 $19
$10 $10
Value generated in Month 2 $0 $10
ROI end of Month 1 11% -47%
Value generated in Month 3 $0 $10
ROI end of Month 3 11% 58%
Example: Online retailer -
Calculating the LTV can be very simple
Average Order Value
PREDICTIVE
Purchases per year
ā‚¬36 2
AVERAGE LIFETIME VALUE OF ALL USERS IS: Ā£72
Example: Online retailer -
But also very complicated
PREDICTIVE
Average Order Value Products Bought
Demographics Profit Margin Items in Basket
Product Satisfaction
Churn Rate
Return Rates
Customer Reviews
On-site
Interactions
Frequency
Postcode
Example: Online retailer -
You can start with simple segmentations
PREDICTIVE
Returning Customers Ā£38
New Customers Ā£32
ā€œPet Productsā€ shoppers Ā£42
Users with a basket value above Ā£50 Ā£54
3
1
5
5
Ā£114
Ā£32
Ā£210
Ā£432
Purchases Per Year Lifetime Value
AOV
Example: Online retailer -
Or use complex ML models to predict the value
Future
new
high
value
customer
Future
New
low
value
customer
Record
transaction
+ LTV
Record
Transaction
80$ in low value
products
(Low Value
Customer)
$
80$ in high value
products
(High Value
Customer)
$$
Smart Bidding
ML model
Ad Click
New Customer
First Purchase
(both 80ā‚¬)
Model
predicts LTV
Activation in
GAds / SA360
Bid to LTV
Offline
Conversion import
Example: Online retailer -
How to pass the data back to Google Ads/ SA360
Use gclid and upload back
values to each click
Conversion value
rules (beta) or CFV
Adapt the value based on
geolocation device and
audiences.
Conversions
adjustments
Retracting and restating
reported conversions (Google
Ads website conversions (tag
based order id ) or oļ¬„ine
conversion import).
GTM or Google
Site Tag
Track conversions Real time
using GTM or Google Site Tag.
You can implement linear
models in GTM.
Example: Online retailer - You should keep in mind
Ensure conversions are
uploaded/tracked on a
frequent basis, ideally daily.
Itā€™s recommended to share all
the important steps of the first 7
days of the customer journey.
You should share enough conversion volume (>50)
for Agencies & Partners
Lead Generator
Offline
conversion
tracking
Online
conversion
tracking
Leads
Engaged visitors Pages visited Newsletter sign-ups Brochure Downloads
Phone calls Form submissions
Buyers
Qualified leads Marketing/Sales qualified leads
Closed deal
Example: Education company -
identify all steps in the funnel
Scenario A: Optimizing towards online form completion Scenario B: Optimizing towards final sale
Example: Education company - If you value
sales deal, start by including the value of each lead
Scenario A the advertiser is using Target CPA to maximize the number of online
lead form completions. However this misses the opportunity of increasing
spend with higher value customers.
In Scenario B, the advertiser is optimizing towards the ļ¬nal value
of the lead, and bidding increases spend on potential high value
customers.
Online
completion
Value of Lead
(final sale)
Sample Google Ads
Spend
Customer A Y $2000 $50
Customer B Y $500 $50
Customer C N $0 $5
Online
completion
Value of Lead
(final sale)
Sample Google
Ads Spend
Customer A Y $2000 $70
Customer B Y $500 $30
Customer C N $0 $5
Volume vs. Value bidding
NON PREDICTIVE
Example: Education company - Go one step
further by passing all steps in the funnel
NON PREDICTIVE
Lead Marketing qualified lead Sale qualify lead
250 leads per month
Closed deal
200 MQLs per month 200 SQLs per month 25 Deals per month
CONVERSION TRACKING
MEASURED THROUGH OFFLINE CONVERSION TRACKING
Import all relevant actions into Google Ads, focus on creating a strong base of lead
quality data and the ability to choose which of these steps will be optimization drivers.
Example: Education company - Go one step
further by passing all steps in the funnel
NON PREDICTIVE
Lead Marketing qualified lead Sale qualify lead
4000 leads per month
$20 value per lead
Closed deal
200 MQLs per month
$400 value per MQL
100 SQLs per month
$800 value per SQL
25 Deals per month
$3200 value per deal
5% CONVERSION RATE
Customer value will help you monitor the real impact of advertising on your business and
make the right decisions to develop growth strategies, ultimately allowing you to capture
the customers that matter the most (and generate the most value).
50% CONVERSION RATE 25% CONVERSION RATE
Customer ļ¬t: The client has realized or modeled revenue
for leads and/or sales in their CRM.
Customer ļ¬t: The client does not have sales or lead
values in their CRM for oļ¬„ine conversion tracking and
they do not have an online shopping cart.
You can import conversion values into
Google Ads and pass back any value you see
fit and even manipulate the values at ease.
If you are tracking multiple conversion
actions, you can assign a static value, i.e the
same value, for each conversion action.
Static Values
Example: Education company - You can provide
either static or dynamic values
PREDICTIVE NON PREDICTIVE
NON PREDICTIVE
Dynamic Values
Customer
Lead
Machine Learning
model
Lead Scoring
Web behaviour analysis &
Contact center data
ā— Device
ā— Location
ā— Mortgage amount
ā— Type of house
ā— Job
ā— Other custom
dimensions
85%
Probability
25%
Probability
60%
Probability
Pre Approved
mortgage
GA360 Internal DataBase
Bucketize Scores Based on
Probability
PREDICTIVE
Example: Education company - Passing Values
Through a lead scoring system
PREDICTIVE
Example: Education company -
Check the Conversion Rate values per quintile
and apply values Based on that
PREDICTIVE
Customer Lead Machine Learning model Lead Scoring
Web behaviour analysis &
Contact center data
ā— Device
ā— Location
ā— Mortgage amount
ā— Type of house
ā— Job
ā— Other custom
dimensions
85% Probability
25% Probability
60% Probability
Pre Approved mortgage
Example: Education company - Passing Values Through
a lead scoring system & Steps in the funnel
Lead Marketing qualified lead Sale qualify lead
4000 leads per month
$20 value per lead
Closed deal
200 MQLs per month
$400 value per MQL
100 SQLs per month
$800 value per SQL
25 Deals per month
$3200 value per deal
PREDICTIVE
Example: Education company - Analyze the drop
rate by step and provide points for each step
Gross Leads
Net Leads
(Documentation
sent)
Super High Value (prob > 0.7)
High Value (prob > 0.5 < 0.7)
Mid Value (prob > 0.4 < 0.5)
Low Value (prob < 0.4)
10$ per conv
+15$ per conv
+20$ per conv
+10$ per conv
+5$ per conv
Example: Education company - Provide values to
each quintiles
PREDICTIVE
1: Rank Net leads from highest probability to convert to lower probability to convert.
2: Bucketize into 4 segments (each segment does not need to have the same size.
3: evaluate if the given scores (share of attributed ROAS) adjust to the reality in final conversion
(share of final sales).
PREDICTIVE
Example: Education company - Provide
values to each quintiles
Minimize Difference
Error if using Leads
11.97%
46.38%
Optimize for
closed leads
Both click
on an ad
Both ļ¬ll out
lead form
Tag counts 2
conversions
Lead gets qualiļ¬ed, User
B drops out
Closed lead gets
imported as only 1
conversion
Optimize for leads
User A
User B
Solution bundle:
Offline conversion
tracking
Value-based
Smart Bidding
āœ“ Technical implementation based
on Click ID, Order ID or Client ID
āœ“ Lead qualiļ¬cation available in a
timely manner
Example: Education company - This is
how the process would look like
PREDICTIVE
Brand Advertiser
Watch a Video
Sign up for
Newsletter
Where to buy +
Facebook
NON PREDICTIVE
Example: Funnel Qualification - Define Engagement
score Identify most valuable ā€˜micro-conversionsā€™
Define Engagement score
Evaluate most valuable website ā€˜micro-conversionsā€™
Assign value to each Engagement
Signal you want to track
Eng. Signal Value
Click to Buy 10
Where to Buy 9
Product Page 8
Newsletter 7
Live Chat 6
FB Message Us 5
Watched Video 4
Pages Visited 3
Tutorial 2
Visit > 1 min 1
NON PREDICTIVE
Watch a Video
Sign up for
Newsletter
Where to buy +
Facebook
Audience
Strategy
Use your 1P Audiences
to provide signals for
bidding
Steps towards bidding to Value
Bidding like a pro and targeting like pro should be
combined to create a good strategy for all customers
Rest of
potential
customers
Visitors
Similar
Audiences
Bidding like a Pro
Target like a Pro
Cases
Carrefour Case
How to leverage First Party Data to acquire High
LifeTime Value Customers - Carrefour Case Study
1P Data for Measurement
Create a 360 customer view
ā— Capture Online , Oļ¬„ine and app sales
focused on a centralized customer id.
ā— Understand the LTV of new acquired
users and signals related to high LTV
users. Moving to LTV ROAS.
1P Data for Audiences
Target more eļ¬ƒciently
ā— Detect patterns of High LifeTimeValue
Customers to acquire similar users
across channels.
ā— Leverage personalization to increase
the conversion rate.
1P Data for bidding
Improve signals for bidding
ā— Include LifeTimeValue as the
main KPI for bidding
ā— Focus on Acquisition of High LTV
customers even if prospects are
not similar audiences /
Remarketing
CASE STUDY
LifeTimeValue ROAS
ā— LifeTime Return per acquired
customer by channel
Data Collection Advanced Analytics Activation
Web
App
Client level
data
LifeTimeValue Insights
ā— Products bought by High LTV
customers in ļ¬rst purchase
ā— Promotion impact on LT
ā— High LTV Customer Persona
ā— On/Off customer behaviour
Investment decisions
ā— Product Level investment
decisions
ā— Channel investment
Market opportunities
ā— Keyword/product expansion
ā— Seasonal promotion actions
ā— Personalization strategy
store
1- Measure like a pro
CASE STUDY
2- Target and personalize like a pro
2. Acquire High LTV
customers
Find similar audiences to high
LifeTimeValue customers
Visit / Historic
purchases
Analysis Scoring /
Clustering
Activation
Web behaviour
ā— Device
ā— Location
ā— Seasonality
ā— Steps in the funnel
ā— Visit num
85% Prob
Cluster 1
Cluster 5
Cluster 4
1. Avoid churn
Retain non engaged old customers
3. Personalize creatives
Adapt messages based on customer
behaviour
Historical Analysis of
purchases
ā— Number of purchases
ā— Precio medio
ā— Recencia
ā— Tipo de productos comprados
25% Prob
60% Prob
Cluster 2
Cluster 3
CASE STUDY
Personalize ad creative taking into account
customer preferences
Healthy life
Gourmet ECO & Bio
lovers
Caregivers
CASE STUDY
Source: https://towardsdatascience.com/build-your-own-recommender-system-within-5-minutes-30dd40388fbf
Taking into account customer historical data to
recommend suitable products
CASE STUDY
Bid to
predicted net
margin ROAS
Bid to Margin
ROAS
Bid like a Pro in ecommerce
Bid to CPC for
each web visit
Bid to
predicted
ROAS LTV
Bid to ROAS
Conversation moves from
marketing & media to business
Predictive
Actual
CASE STUDY
3- How to bid like a pro in ecommerce - Acquire
high LTV customers
Future
new
high
value
customer
Future
New
low
value
customer
Record
transaction
+ LTV
Record
Transaction
80$ in low value
products
(Low Value
Customer)
$
80$ in high value
products
(High Value
Customer)
$$
Smart Bidding
ML model
Ad Click
New Customer
First Purchase
(both 80ā‚¬)
Model
predicts LTV
Activation in
GAds / SA360
Bid to LTV
CASE STUDY
We need to work on anticipated KPIs to fasten
marketing decisions
% of qualified acquired customers - based on LTV model
CASE STUDY
Verti Case
Offline
conversion
tracking
Online
conversion
tracking
Visitors
Steps in funnel
Leads
Call Center
Aggregators
Agents
1- Measure like a pro - Verti Worked on 1PD to measure
all offline sales
CASE STUDY
Customer
quotation
Machine Learning
model
Lead Scoring Activation
Web behaviour analysis
ā— Device
ā— Location
ā— Model type
ā— Type of insurance
ā— Car model
ā— Kms per year
ā— Other custom
dimensions
85% Probability
25% Probability
60% Probability
1. Auto-bidding
Change the bidding KPI from
tCPL to tCPA
3. Reduce CPA
Align marketing campaign to
customer ļ¬nal goals
2. Increase Lead Quality
Auto-bidding bids higher for high
quality lead prospects and saves
money from low quality leads
Oļ¬„ine conv
import
GA360 BigQuery / BigQueryML SA 360
Predicted sale
Predicted NO
sale
Predicted sale
2- Verti with Making Science Created a lead scoring to
predict sales
CASE STUDY
Online Lead Sales
Call Center Lead Qualified lead (scoring)
X% conversion rate X% conversion rate X% conversion rate
2- Verti provided different Values to each
conversion in funnel
CASE STUDY
Summary
Global Best Practices
Align inside your company what
KPIs will be the ones used to
optimize and measure (change
your internal mindset)
Work together with Data teams
(client, agency and Google) to
be aligned
Know the technology you have
and its pros/cons before
starting
Add the new KPI value to your
pixel (Gads, GA, FL) and wait at
least 4-6 weeks before activating
Smart Bidding
After 4-6 weeks of everything
working ļ¬ne, apply Max Conv.
Value or tROAS
Be patient
After other 6, start to analyze
results.
Spend time on deļ¬ning your
values for each type of KPI
Analyze results
Activate SB (tROAS/Max
Value)
Add the new KPI to Google
Weā€™re changing the KPI and
values reported previously. SB
needs at least 6 weeks.
Understand the tech you
have
Work together
Define the new KPI Alignment inside the
company
STRATEGIC OPERATIONAL
Questions?
Proprietary + Conļ¬dential
Ā”Gracias por
vuestro Feedback!
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  • 10. Perform like a pro: Talk about business, not media Track & value success aligned with Customer Goals Use Machine Learning to maximize efficiency Expand to all available Inventory Set right Budget & Target to maximize opportunity
  • 11. for Agencies & Partners Perform like a pro options
  • 12. How can we do this? NON PREDICTIVE PREDICTIVE Funnel qualification Margin/profit/on+off Lead scoring Customer lifetime value
  • 13. EXAMPLE SIGNALS ā— Query ā— Location ā— Device ā— Browser ā— OS ā— Language ā— Time of the day, Day of the week ā— 1P audience lists (presence, recency) ā— ā€¦ and more! ā— ā€¦ and combinations of there signals Smart Bidding activation options: tROAS & Max. Conv. Value Auction-time predicted conversion value per click BID Search query level performance across your account or MCC Contextual signals at auction time ROAS Target Budget
  • 14. for Agencies & Partners How?
  • 15. Steps towards bidding to Value Create a 360Āŗ View customer Bid to Value Audience Strategy ā€œLet the data talk about your businessā€ Use your 1P Audiences to provide signals for bidding Align your campaign bidding with customer goals
  • 16. Steps towards bidding to Value Create a 360Āŗ View customer ā€œLet the data talk about your businessā€
  • 17. Capturing the right data throughout the entire consumer journey is key to enable value-based bidding It prioritizes the actions that are worth the most to your business Drive online sales Generate leads Drive offline sales Pages visited Time on site Brochure downloads Newsletter sign-ups Phone calls Form submissions Store visits Driving directions Purchase Increase awareness Sales-qualiļ¬ed leads
  • 18. Data capture for a Lead Generation business Offline conversion tracking Online conversion tracking Leads Engaged visitors Pages visited Newsletter sign-ups Web Behaviour Phone calls Form submissions Buyers Qualified leads Marketing/Sales qualified leads Closed deal
  • 19. Data Capture for a Retail Business Data Collection Web App Store Client level data Advanced Analytics LIFETIMEVALUE INSIGHTS ā— Products bought by High LTV customers in ļ¬rst purchase ā— Promotion impact on LTV ā— High LTV Customer Persona ā— On/Off customer behaviour LIFETIMEVALUE ROAS ā— LifeTime Return per acquired customer by channel
  • 20. Steps towards bidding to Value Bid to Value Align your campaign bidding with customer goals
  • 21. for Agencies & Partners Ecommerce
  • 23. Scenario A: Retailer optimizing towards purchase value Scenario B: Retailer optimizing towards margins Example: Online retailer - Bidding to Margin In Scenario A, the advertiser is maximizing the purchase value Target ROAS bidding. This allows bidding to understand the differences of each conversion and hence increases ad spend on ā€˜Customer Bā€™ and ā€˜Customer Cā€™. In Scenario B, the advertiser is going one step further and optimizing towards margin, and hence has higher ad spend on ā€˜Customer Bā€™ where there are higher earnings Consider which data is readily available to you, to begin optimizing towards what matters the most. Purchase Margin Sample Google Ads Spend Customer A $50 $20 $20 Customer B $100 $70 $40 Customer C $100 $30 $40 Purchase Margin Sample Google Ads Spend Customer A $50 $20 $10 Customer B $100 $70 $60 Customer C $100 $30 $30 Value bidding: purchase value vs.margin value NON PREDICTIVE
  • 24. Example: Online retailer - Bidding to Margin + Store Visits FORMULA NON PREDICTIVE EXAMPLE In-Store Purchase Rate In-Store Average Order Value Store Visit Conversion Value (Set in GA, available in SA360) 70% 300USD = (70% * 300USD) = 210USD (i.e. 7 out of 10 customers who visit your store make a purchase) (i.e. your average customer spends 300 USD per visit) Store Visit Conversion Value In-Store Purchase Rate In-Store Average Order Value
  • 25. Value all customer touch points in reporting and KPIs NON PREDICTIVE Online Sales Digital Budget Online Conv. Value Online ROI Omnichannel ROAS Store Visits Store Visit Conv. Value Offline ROI Ad
  • 26. Example: Online retailer - Bidding towards LTV - What is CLTV? PREDICTIVE ā€˜Lifetimeā€™ usually starts at the day of 1st purchase When calculating LTV (=CLV) we must specify the time frame over which it is calculated Some often refer to Past Value of their customers when talking about LTV which then does not include the ā€˜predictive elementā€™ LTV can be calculated both as a sum of Revenue, or as a sum Proļ¬t Order Value $1 $4 $3 $9 $2 $8 Margin Past Value Predicted LTV (pLTV) $1 $4 FIRST 6 MONTH LTV FIRST YEAR LTV
  • 27. Example: Online retailer - Which customer is more valuable to your business ? CPA Value generated in Month 1 $9 $19 $10 $10 Value generated in Month 2 $0 $10 ROI end of Month 1 11% -47% Value generated in Month 3 $0 $10 ROI end of Month 3 11% 58%
  • 28. Example: Online retailer - Calculating the LTV can be very simple Average Order Value PREDICTIVE Purchases per year ā‚¬36 2 AVERAGE LIFETIME VALUE OF ALL USERS IS: Ā£72
  • 29. Example: Online retailer - But also very complicated PREDICTIVE Average Order Value Products Bought Demographics Profit Margin Items in Basket Product Satisfaction Churn Rate Return Rates Customer Reviews On-site Interactions Frequency Postcode
  • 30. Example: Online retailer - You can start with simple segmentations PREDICTIVE Returning Customers Ā£38 New Customers Ā£32 ā€œPet Productsā€ shoppers Ā£42 Users with a basket value above Ā£50 Ā£54 3 1 5 5 Ā£114 Ā£32 Ā£210 Ā£432 Purchases Per Year Lifetime Value AOV
  • 31. Example: Online retailer - Or use complex ML models to predict the value Future new high value customer Future New low value customer Record transaction + LTV Record Transaction 80$ in low value products (Low Value Customer) $ 80$ in high value products (High Value Customer) $$ Smart Bidding ML model Ad Click New Customer First Purchase (both 80ā‚¬) Model predicts LTV Activation in GAds / SA360 Bid to LTV
  • 32. Offline Conversion import Example: Online retailer - How to pass the data back to Google Ads/ SA360 Use gclid and upload back values to each click Conversion value rules (beta) or CFV Adapt the value based on geolocation device and audiences. Conversions adjustments Retracting and restating reported conversions (Google Ads website conversions (tag based order id ) or oļ¬„ine conversion import). GTM or Google Site Tag Track conversions Real time using GTM or Google Site Tag. You can implement linear models in GTM.
  • 33. Example: Online retailer - You should keep in mind Ensure conversions are uploaded/tracked on a frequent basis, ideally daily. Itā€™s recommended to share all the important steps of the first 7 days of the customer journey. You should share enough conversion volume (>50)
  • 34. for Agencies & Partners Lead Generator
  • 35. Offline conversion tracking Online conversion tracking Leads Engaged visitors Pages visited Newsletter sign-ups Brochure Downloads Phone calls Form submissions Buyers Qualified leads Marketing/Sales qualified leads Closed deal Example: Education company - identify all steps in the funnel
  • 36. Scenario A: Optimizing towards online form completion Scenario B: Optimizing towards final sale Example: Education company - If you value sales deal, start by including the value of each lead Scenario A the advertiser is using Target CPA to maximize the number of online lead form completions. However this misses the opportunity of increasing spend with higher value customers. In Scenario B, the advertiser is optimizing towards the ļ¬nal value of the lead, and bidding increases spend on potential high value customers. Online completion Value of Lead (final sale) Sample Google Ads Spend Customer A Y $2000 $50 Customer B Y $500 $50 Customer C N $0 $5 Online completion Value of Lead (final sale) Sample Google Ads Spend Customer A Y $2000 $70 Customer B Y $500 $30 Customer C N $0 $5 Volume vs. Value bidding NON PREDICTIVE
  • 37. Example: Education company - Go one step further by passing all steps in the funnel NON PREDICTIVE Lead Marketing qualified lead Sale qualify lead 250 leads per month Closed deal 200 MQLs per month 200 SQLs per month 25 Deals per month CONVERSION TRACKING MEASURED THROUGH OFFLINE CONVERSION TRACKING Import all relevant actions into Google Ads, focus on creating a strong base of lead quality data and the ability to choose which of these steps will be optimization drivers.
  • 38. Example: Education company - Go one step further by passing all steps in the funnel NON PREDICTIVE Lead Marketing qualified lead Sale qualify lead 4000 leads per month $20 value per lead Closed deal 200 MQLs per month $400 value per MQL 100 SQLs per month $800 value per SQL 25 Deals per month $3200 value per deal 5% CONVERSION RATE Customer value will help you monitor the real impact of advertising on your business and make the right decisions to develop growth strategies, ultimately allowing you to capture the customers that matter the most (and generate the most value). 50% CONVERSION RATE 25% CONVERSION RATE
  • 39. Customer ļ¬t: The client has realized or modeled revenue for leads and/or sales in their CRM. Customer ļ¬t: The client does not have sales or lead values in their CRM for oļ¬„ine conversion tracking and they do not have an online shopping cart. You can import conversion values into Google Ads and pass back any value you see fit and even manipulate the values at ease. If you are tracking multiple conversion actions, you can assign a static value, i.e the same value, for each conversion action. Static Values Example: Education company - You can provide either static or dynamic values PREDICTIVE NON PREDICTIVE NON PREDICTIVE Dynamic Values
  • 40. Customer Lead Machine Learning model Lead Scoring Web behaviour analysis & Contact center data ā— Device ā— Location ā— Mortgage amount ā— Type of house ā— Job ā— Other custom dimensions 85% Probability 25% Probability 60% Probability Pre Approved mortgage GA360 Internal DataBase Bucketize Scores Based on Probability PREDICTIVE Example: Education company - Passing Values Through a lead scoring system
  • 41. PREDICTIVE Example: Education company - Check the Conversion Rate values per quintile and apply values Based on that
  • 42. PREDICTIVE Customer Lead Machine Learning model Lead Scoring Web behaviour analysis & Contact center data ā— Device ā— Location ā— Mortgage amount ā— Type of house ā— Job ā— Other custom dimensions 85% Probability 25% Probability 60% Probability Pre Approved mortgage Example: Education company - Passing Values Through a lead scoring system & Steps in the funnel Lead Marketing qualified lead Sale qualify lead 4000 leads per month $20 value per lead Closed deal 200 MQLs per month $400 value per MQL 100 SQLs per month $800 value per SQL 25 Deals per month $3200 value per deal
  • 43. PREDICTIVE Example: Education company - Analyze the drop rate by step and provide points for each step
  • 44. Gross Leads Net Leads (Documentation sent) Super High Value (prob > 0.7) High Value (prob > 0.5 < 0.7) Mid Value (prob > 0.4 < 0.5) Low Value (prob < 0.4) 10$ per conv +15$ per conv +20$ per conv +10$ per conv +5$ per conv Example: Education company - Provide values to each quintiles PREDICTIVE
  • 45. 1: Rank Net leads from highest probability to convert to lower probability to convert. 2: Bucketize into 4 segments (each segment does not need to have the same size. 3: evaluate if the given scores (share of attributed ROAS) adjust to the reality in final conversion (share of final sales). PREDICTIVE Example: Education company - Provide values to each quintiles Minimize Difference Error if using Leads 11.97% 46.38%
  • 46. Optimize for closed leads Both click on an ad Both ļ¬ll out lead form Tag counts 2 conversions Lead gets qualiļ¬ed, User B drops out Closed lead gets imported as only 1 conversion Optimize for leads User A User B Solution bundle: Offline conversion tracking Value-based Smart Bidding āœ“ Technical implementation based on Click ID, Order ID or Client ID āœ“ Lead qualiļ¬cation available in a timely manner Example: Education company - This is how the process would look like PREDICTIVE
  • 48. Watch a Video Sign up for Newsletter Where to buy + Facebook NON PREDICTIVE Example: Funnel Qualification - Define Engagement score Identify most valuable ā€˜micro-conversionsā€™
  • 49. Define Engagement score Evaluate most valuable website ā€˜micro-conversionsā€™ Assign value to each Engagement Signal you want to track Eng. Signal Value Click to Buy 10 Where to Buy 9 Product Page 8 Newsletter 7 Live Chat 6 FB Message Us 5 Watched Video 4 Pages Visited 3 Tutorial 2 Visit > 1 min 1 NON PREDICTIVE Watch a Video Sign up for Newsletter Where to buy + Facebook
  • 50. Audience Strategy Use your 1P Audiences to provide signals for bidding Steps towards bidding to Value
  • 51. Bidding like a pro and targeting like pro should be combined to create a good strategy for all customers Rest of potential customers Visitors Similar Audiences Bidding like a Pro Target like a Pro
  • 52. Cases
  • 54. How to leverage First Party Data to acquire High LifeTime Value Customers - Carrefour Case Study 1P Data for Measurement Create a 360 customer view ā— Capture Online , Oļ¬„ine and app sales focused on a centralized customer id. ā— Understand the LTV of new acquired users and signals related to high LTV users. Moving to LTV ROAS. 1P Data for Audiences Target more eļ¬ƒciently ā— Detect patterns of High LifeTimeValue Customers to acquire similar users across channels. ā— Leverage personalization to increase the conversion rate. 1P Data for bidding Improve signals for bidding ā— Include LifeTimeValue as the main KPI for bidding ā— Focus on Acquisition of High LTV customers even if prospects are not similar audiences / Remarketing CASE STUDY
  • 55. LifeTimeValue ROAS ā— LifeTime Return per acquired customer by channel Data Collection Advanced Analytics Activation Web App Client level data LifeTimeValue Insights ā— Products bought by High LTV customers in ļ¬rst purchase ā— Promotion impact on LT ā— High LTV Customer Persona ā— On/Off customer behaviour Investment decisions ā— Product Level investment decisions ā— Channel investment Market opportunities ā— Keyword/product expansion ā— Seasonal promotion actions ā— Personalization strategy store 1- Measure like a pro CASE STUDY
  • 56. 2- Target and personalize like a pro 2. Acquire High LTV customers Find similar audiences to high LifeTimeValue customers Visit / Historic purchases Analysis Scoring / Clustering Activation Web behaviour ā— Device ā— Location ā— Seasonality ā— Steps in the funnel ā— Visit num 85% Prob Cluster 1 Cluster 5 Cluster 4 1. Avoid churn Retain non engaged old customers 3. Personalize creatives Adapt messages based on customer behaviour Historical Analysis of purchases ā— Number of purchases ā— Precio medio ā— Recencia ā— Tipo de productos comprados 25% Prob 60% Prob Cluster 2 Cluster 3 CASE STUDY
  • 57. Personalize ad creative taking into account customer preferences Healthy life Gourmet ECO & Bio lovers Caregivers CASE STUDY
  • 58.
  • 59. Source: https://towardsdatascience.com/build-your-own-recommender-system-within-5-minutes-30dd40388fbf Taking into account customer historical data to recommend suitable products CASE STUDY
  • 60. Bid to predicted net margin ROAS Bid to Margin ROAS Bid like a Pro in ecommerce Bid to CPC for each web visit Bid to predicted ROAS LTV Bid to ROAS Conversation moves from marketing & media to business Predictive Actual CASE STUDY
  • 61. 3- How to bid like a pro in ecommerce - Acquire high LTV customers Future new high value customer Future New low value customer Record transaction + LTV Record Transaction 80$ in low value products (Low Value Customer) $ 80$ in high value products (High Value Customer) $$ Smart Bidding ML model Ad Click New Customer First Purchase (both 80ā‚¬) Model predicts LTV Activation in GAds / SA360 Bid to LTV CASE STUDY
  • 62. We need to work on anticipated KPIs to fasten marketing decisions % of qualified acquired customers - based on LTV model CASE STUDY
  • 63.
  • 65. Offline conversion tracking Online conversion tracking Visitors Steps in funnel Leads Call Center Aggregators Agents 1- Measure like a pro - Verti Worked on 1PD to measure all offline sales CASE STUDY
  • 66. Customer quotation Machine Learning model Lead Scoring Activation Web behaviour analysis ā— Device ā— Location ā— Model type ā— Type of insurance ā— Car model ā— Kms per year ā— Other custom dimensions 85% Probability 25% Probability 60% Probability 1. Auto-bidding Change the bidding KPI from tCPL to tCPA 3. Reduce CPA Align marketing campaign to customer ļ¬nal goals 2. Increase Lead Quality Auto-bidding bids higher for high quality lead prospects and saves money from low quality leads Oļ¬„ine conv import GA360 BigQuery / BigQueryML SA 360 Predicted sale Predicted NO sale Predicted sale 2- Verti with Making Science Created a lead scoring to predict sales CASE STUDY
  • 67. Online Lead Sales Call Center Lead Qualified lead (scoring) X% conversion rate X% conversion rate X% conversion rate 2- Verti provided different Values to each conversion in funnel CASE STUDY
  • 68.
  • 70. Global Best Practices Align inside your company what KPIs will be the ones used to optimize and measure (change your internal mindset) Work together with Data teams (client, agency and Google) to be aligned Know the technology you have and its pros/cons before starting Add the new KPI value to your pixel (Gads, GA, FL) and wait at least 4-6 weeks before activating Smart Bidding After 4-6 weeks of everything working ļ¬ne, apply Max Conv. Value or tROAS Be patient After other 6, start to analyze results. Spend time on deļ¬ning your values for each type of KPI Analyze results Activate SB (tROAS/Max Value) Add the new KPI to Google Weā€™re changing the KPI and values reported previously. SB needs at least 6 weeks. Understand the tech you have Work together Define the new KPI Alignment inside the company STRATEGIC OPERATIONAL
  • 72. Proprietary + Conļ¬dential Ā”Gracias por vuestro Feedback! Son sĆ³lo 2 minutos :)