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2021_01_04_CBCovid Texas Coastal Bend Pandemic Report January 4, 2021
- 1. 1 @CBCOVID TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT JANUARY 04, 2021 Coastal Bend COVID Task Force
- 2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS & QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 & INTERVENTIONS ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING 2 TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES @CBCOVID
- 3. 1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN 2. FACE COVERINGS & SOCIAL DISTANCING 3. ISOLATE WHEN EXPOSED OR SYMPTOMATIC 4. PARTIAL REMOTE SCHOOLING 5. “OPEN TX” a. 75% capacity in most businesses 3 COVID-19 INTERVENTIONS @CBCOVID
- 4. 29,643 RECOVERIES COASTAL BEND “COVID CONFIRMED” CASES 33,391 TOTAL CASES 2,886 ACTIVE CASES @CBCOVID
- 5. •Scenario 1: • Transmission rate continues at 1.13 • Same as last week’s projection •Scenario 2: • Celebrate like Thanksgiving 2020 • Transmission dips to 0.91 before returning to 1.13 5 WINTER HOLIDAY SCENARIOS @CBCOVID
- 6. SCENARIO 1 TRIGGERS BUSINESS ROLLBACK TO 50% JAN 13 SCENARIO 2 DOES NOT TRIGGER ROLLBACK 75% Business Capacity 50% 75% TRANSMISSION RATE ESTIMATION COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID THANKSGIVING LULL Rt = 1.13 50%
- 7. BOTH SCENARIOS EQUALLY LIKELY BASED ON CASE REPORTING 75% Business Capacity 50% 75% DAILY CONFIRMED COVID CASES COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID 50% 75%
- 8. LIVE OAK ARANSAS REFUGIO 8 NUECES BEE KLEBERG LIVE OAK SAN PAT ARANSAS JIM WELLS @CBCOVID
- 9. NEW CASES BY AGE CLASS PER 100K @CBCOVID 40-59 0-19 60-79 20-39 80+ NUECES COUNTY
- 10. LIVE OAK ARANSAS REFUGIO 10 BEE KLEBERG DUVAL ARANSAS JIM WELLS @CBCOVID SAN PATRICIO REFUGIO BROOKS LIVEOAK
- 11. 11 ARANSAS NUECES MCALLEN SAN PAT LAREDO BRNSVL SAN ANT VICTORIA MIXED SIGNALS DAILY COVID CASES PER 100K 75% 50% 75% Business Capacity SELECTED SOUTH TEXAS COUNTIES @CBCOVID
- 12. 75% 50% AMARILLO DAL/FTW HOUSTN EL PASO/ LUBBOCK S. TEXAS AUSTIN SAN ANT 75% Business Capacity LONGVW DAILY COVID CASES PER 100K TEXAS PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS @CBCOVID NW TEXAS DECLINING, REST OF TEXAS INCREASING
- 13. DAILY CENSUS COVID INPATIENTS DOWNWARD TREND IN PAST 5 DAYS SUPPORTS GREEN PROJECTION 75% Business Capacity 50% 75% COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID 50% 75%
- 14. PERCENT OF STAFFED HOSPITAL BEDS WITH COVID INPATIENTS 15 DEC 24, STARTED TOWARDS 15% 12% @CBCOVID COASTAL BEND @CBCOVID
- 15. CENSUS ICU PATIENTS: DEC 27 COASTAL BEND NON- COVID COVID 145 95 50 ICU COVID PATIENTS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN LAST FEW DAYS COVID @CBCOVID
- 17. MORE ICU COVID PATIENTS IN MOST PARTS OF TEXAS RELATIVE TO LAST WEEK PATIENT CENSUS NON-COVID COVID COVID @CBCOVID TEXAS ICU PATIENTS: JAN 03
- 18. 18 COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES FATALITIES LEVELING FOR CB (BACKLOG?), EXPECTED TO INCREASE * Death certificates from past 14 days still being processed @CBCOVID 548 NUECES 862* CB
- 19. SUMMARY •Transmission rate above 1 • Fall-Winter Outbreak continuing • Unsure if there was a Christmas-New Year lull •New cases increasing, hospitalizations are decreasing •Fatality data likely backlogged due to holidays 19 • 2021, Happy New Year! • Maintain vigilance • Face coverings + social distancing @CBCOVID
- 20. 20 @CBCOVID TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT JANUARY 04, 2021 Coastal Bend COVID Task Force