2020_06_05_CBCovid Texas Coastal Bend Pandemic Report June 5, 2020

1. TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT
June 5, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force
1
https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

2. ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS &
QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
TODAY WE WILL SELECT QUESTIONS TO
ANSWER FROM FB LIVE
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION
MAKING
2
TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

3. CASE DATA
3
TOPICS ADDRESSED TODAY

4. REPORT FOR
12 COUNTY COASTAL BEND
4
ACTIVE CASES
TOTAL CASES

5. Out-
Breaks
137

6. 1.3 – 2.2%
Out-
Breaks
NUECES COUNTY
1.0 - 2.3%

7. 7
NUECES UPDATED
TODAY:
286 TOTAL CASES
108 ACTIVE CASES
175 RECOVERIES
3 FATALITIES
4 CB
FATALITIES
281 CB
RECOVERIES
COASTAL BEND COVID-19 CASES
384 CB
TOTAL CASES
99 CB
ACTIVE CASES
Out-
Breaks

8. 8
COASTAL
BEND CASES
BX FATALITIES
CB FATALITIES
8
BEXAR
(San Antonio)
CASES
Out-
Breaks

9. 9
BEXAR (SAN ANTONIO)
Stay-at-Home
COASTAL BEND

10. 10
Stay-at-
Home
NUECES
REST OF COASTAL BEND
Memorial
Day Bump

11. CASE DATA
CELL PHONE DATA
11
TOPICS ADDRESSED TODAY
In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker

12. WHAT ABOUT OUR PRIVACY?
• Apps track your
location and the data
is sold to businesses
• Google maps
• Facebook
• Instagram
• Flashlight
• Anonymized data is
used for targeted
advertising &
decision making

13. 1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN
2. LOOSENING RESTRICTIONS ON
SOCIAL/PUBLIC GATHERINGS
3. SCHOOL CLOSURES
4. SOCIAL DISTANCING
5. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC
13
PHONE DATA:
EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERVENTIONS

14. 14
STAY
AT
HOME
SCHOOL CLOSURES EFFECTIVE
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Visits to
schools, K-12-
PhD
• Device near or
in building
• safeGraph.com UNIVERSITIES
BASELINE
JR COLLEGES
K-12

15. 15
SOME ARE STAYING AT HOME
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Proportion
leaving home
per day
• Device leaves
home triggers
count
• Distance
traveled
STAY
AT
HOME
DISTANCE
TRAVELED
LEAVING
HOME

16. 16
MORE ENCOUNTERS ON WEEKENDS
STAY
AT
HOME MON-THU
FRI-SUN
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Number of
encounters per
km2 per day
scaled to
Nueces
• Estimate
probability of
contact
• 2 devices within
50 meters for
less than 60
minutes
MEMORIAL
DAY

17. 17
STAY
AT
HOME
VISITORS MOSTLY COMING BY CAR
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Foot traffic
• Device near or
in building
• safeGraph.com
SPRING BREAK
AIRPORT
HOTELS

18. 18
MEDICAL OFFICE FOOT TRAFFIC
STAY
AT
HOME
EYE &
DENTAL
DR OFFICES
& LABS
HOSPITALS
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Visits to
medical
facilities
• Phone near or
in building
• safeGraph.com

19. 19
ESSENTIAL & NON-ESSENTIAL GATHERINGS
Cell Phone
Location Model
• Proportion
leaving home
per day
• Device leaves
home triggers
count
• safeGraph.com
STAY
AT
HOME
BARS
RESTAURANTS
GROCERY
MALLS
HOME
IMPROVEMENT
MOVIES

20. CASE DATA
CELL PHONE DATA
20
TOPICS ADDRESSED TODAY
MODEL ESTIMATES &
PREDICTIONS

21. EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS SIMULATE
THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
SUCEPTIBLE
INFECTIOUS
RECOVERED HOSPITAL
ICU
MORTALITY
INTERVENTIONS
x TRANSMISSION RATE
TEXAS FATALITY FORECAST
(grey is model forecast)
(points are
fatalities
per day)

22. 2.7
22
WITHOUT INTERVENTIONS
COVID-19 SPREADS
PEOPLE INFECTED
PER CARRIER Week
1
Week
2
Week
3
Week
4
7 20 53
3
SOUTH TEXAS
84 Infected
In 1 month

23. INTERVENTIONS REDUCE
TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19
WITH PRESENT
INTERVENTIONS
0.9
3
4 7
2
23
SOUTH TEXAS
5 Infected
In 1 month

24. COVID-19 TRANSMISSION RATE
SLOWEST IN SOUTH TEXAS
Estimated
Transmission Rate
INCREASING
DECREASING
2020-06-03
CC TAMU-CC COVID-19 TASK FORCE
Texas:
1.07

25. 25
STAY-AT-
HOME
COVID-19 Confirmed Admits in
Coastal Bend Hospitals
ENOUGH CAPACITY FOR
APPROXIMATELY 350
WITHOUT SEVERE DISRUPTION

26. 26
STAY-AT-
HOME
COVID-19 Confirmed Admits to
Coastal Bend Hospitals
ENOUGH CAPACITY FOR
APPROXIMATELY 30
WITHOUT SEVERE DISRUPTION

27. SUMMARY
•New cases in Coastal Bend increasing
• Memorial Day Bump
•Non-essential activity is increasing (phones)
•COVID-19 is not expanding in South TX
• Good news, but not time to be complacent
• Geographic pattern in TX transmission rate
•Hospitals presently well within capacity
• Task force communicates directly with health
officials
27

28. HELP CONTAIN
LOCAL OUTBREAKS
• Critically important to identify & contain
localized outbreaks
• Involved businesses, leaders, essential & front-
line workers should be commended for
compliance & comprehensive testing
• Lessons learned for managers
• Identify loopholes in social distancing policies or
COVID-19 will
28

29. WHAT CAN WE DO TO HELP “OPEN TEXAS” &
CONTROL SPREAD OF COVID-19?
• Each of us can make a difference
• CDC ‘Face coverings in public’ decreases
transmission
• Self-isolate when symptomatic
• Stay-at-Home if you can
• Postpone social gatherings, or have them
online
• Curbside & takeout
• Support testing & contact tracing
29
https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

30. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• The joint taskforce was created by Judge Canales, City leadership
including City Manager Zanoni, TAMU-CC President Miller and Vice
President Mahdy
• Many Organizations and People Contributed to this Work
• Including: Philippe Tissot, Keren Costanzo, Chris Bird, Daniel McGinn,
Steve Viera, Lucy Huang, Jason Selwyn, Bryan Gillis, Meng Zhao, Greg
Buck, Jason Louis, Hilary Watt, Annette Rodriguez, Mike Mohat, Mike
Simmons, Scott King, Evan Krell, Mahmoud Eldefrawy, Roy Roberts,
Audrey Garza, Gina Concannon, Davey Edwards, Qianqian Liu, Leisha
Martin, Ed Warga, Dante Gonzalez, Tiffany Anderson, Maggie Turner
30
https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19-response