Discussion Top

1. 1
Workshop on Biofuels and Food Security
International Food Policy Research Institute
Washington, DC
November 20, 2014
Lee Rybeck Lynd
Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College
Global Sustainable Bioenergy Project
Bioenergy Science Center
Institutions, Innovation, and the Cost of Inaction
GSB
Global Sustainable Bioenergy

2. Critical challenge: From resource capital to resource income
Navigating this smoothly requires, for all sectors
Doing things differently than we do them now. It is unreasonable to
expect an extrapolated future to be different from the present.
Systemic approach. Multiple, mutually-reinforcing approaches to
achieve multiple, complementary objectives.
Increased efficiency. All supply chain steps.
Resource Revolutions in Human History
Hunting &
Gathering
Preindustrial
Agricultural
Presustainable
Industrial
~ 10,000 BC… 1750 AD…
Neolithic
Revolution
Industrial
Revolution
Sustainable
Industrial
Now
Sustainability
Revolution
Duration: Millennia Several centuries
Population: 50 million 750 million
Small groups Farms/
villages
< a century
~7 billion
GlobalCities/countriesScale of
societal
integration/
potential
collapse:
(Lynd, Energy Envir. Sci, 2010).

3. Poverty and food insecurity: More one problem
than two
• All wealthy people have access to food
• All involuntarily hungry people are poor
When food insecurity is viewed in terms of metrics – availability, access, utilization, stability –
the impact of bioenergy may appear obscure
Poverty
Rural unemployment
Lack of marketable skills
Low currency value
Degraded land
Poorly developed infrastructure
(Physical, market, knowhow)
Local production undermined
by foreign subsidies
High food prices
* Thurow, R, S. Kilman. Enough: Why the World’s Poor Starve in an Age of Plenty. 2009.
Consider instead the causes of food insecurity*
Bioenergy in Relation to Metrics and Causes of Food Insecurity

4. Poverty and food insecurity: More one problem
than two
• All wealthy people have access to food
• All involuntarily hungry people are poor
Bioenergy done right has clear
potential to positively impact
all of these.
When food insecurity is viewed in terms of metrics – availability, access, utilization, stability –
bioenergy may appear to have indirect and perhaps negative impacts
Poverty
Rural unemployment
Lack of marketable skills
Low currency value
Degraded land
Poorly developed infrastructure
(Physical, market, knowhow)
Local production undermined
by foreign subsidies
High food prices
* Thurow, R, S. Kilman. Enough: Why the World’s Poor Starve in an Age of Plenty. 2009.
Consider instead the causes of food insecurity*
Bioenergy in Relation to Metrics and Causes of Food Insecurity

5. 5
It may be more productive, and also more correct, to view the sharply divergent
assessments of bioenergy as informative answers to two different questions rather than
irreconcilable answers to the same question.
Large potential,
feasible, desirable
Small potential,
infeasible, undesirable
What are the impacts of adding
(usually today’s) bioenergy to a world based
on extrapolating current practices?
What role could (usually tomorrow’s)
bioenergy play in a world reconfigured
to meet energy challenges?
Biggest
Limitation
Does not illuminate solutions Not consistent with current reality
What we can do and need to doValue What we can not or should not do
Cost of inactionChief
Concern
Cost of action
Sharply-Divergent Assessments of Bioenergy: Potential Reconciliation

6. Some More Nuanced Dichotomies
Social impacts of
bioenergy
Likely negative
Minimize social interaction
with bioenergy – go where
the people aren’t
Potentially positive
Maximize social interaction
with bioenergy – go where
the people are
Food security impacts
impacts of bioenergy
Likely negative
Minimize interactions between
bioenergy and food production
(use marginal, degraded land)
Potentially positive
Maximize interactions between
bioenergy and food production
(e.g. integrated production,
bioenergy enhancement of
food supply resilience)
A false dichotomy (both needed)
Village scale Industrial scale
Are clear examples of highly
meritorious systems
(Balakrishna)
Necessary to meet challenges
in developed countries
Also can offer benefits in
developing countriesLocally implementable

7. Institutions
Food
• Price
• Access
Development
• Employment
• Energy poverty alleviation
• Education
Land Management
• Land use
• Integrated production
• Fertility
• Water
Social
• Land tenure/land grab
• Gender
• Distribution of benefits
Technology
• Production models
• Innovation
Environment
• Water
• GHG
• Climate
An already complex set of interactions
BioenergyBioenergy
…can result in positive or negative outcomes
when bioenergy is added.
Good governance is essential
to maximize benefits
Does not always accompany
bioenergy opportunities
Government agencies
overseeing aspects of
bioenergy often stovepiped
Multi-sector, multi-level
governance structures more
likely effective than single
sector/level
Innovative public-private
partnerships and business
models are promising for
ensuring P3 benefits

8. Innovation
Institutional innovation. Just discussed
We mustn’t forget technical innovation – alarming signs of decreasing investment
New crops
Cellulosic biofuels, aviation biofuels
Intensified and/or integrated land management
Goldemberg et al., 2004
Actual cost decreases with experience &
innovation
Cost
Progress/Experience
Rand Curve
Estimated cost increases with experience,
inversely related to ignorance
Rand Study, 1979
Brazil 1st Gen Ethanol Curve
Need-responsive supply chains. e.g. use of ethanol in farm machinery and trucks

9. Grand Challenges
Climate change
Bioenergy
Fuel for long-distance transport and industrial heat are
difficult to provide from other low carbon sources
As a result, a low-carbon energy future is substantially
easier to achieve with bioenergy than without it
Sustainable agriculture Integration of perennial crops into agricultural
landscapes can reduce erosion, improve/reclaim
soil fertility, and improve nutrient capture/water quality
Economic development None of the MDGs can be met without major
improvement in the quality and quantity of energy
services in developing countries (UNDP)
Most of the world’s poor are rural, and agricultural
development benefits rural poor more than other
development
Bioenergy Has Clear Potential to Positively Impact Key
Grand Challenges Facing Humanity

10. Bioenergy Contribution in 2050: Five Low-Carbon Energy Scenarios
Dale et al., ES&T, 2014
10
Even with aggressive increases in efficiency, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles,
biofuels provide about half transportation energy in the IEA 2DS extended to 2075.
Fulton et al., in review.
Broad Consensus that Bioenergy has a Large Role to Play in Climate Change Mitigation

11. Risk of inaction: The world will miss out
on bioenergy’s contribution to meeting
grand challenges
Risk of action: We will manage some bioenergy
linkages poorly, thus compromising things
we care about
No further bioenergy development
 no further grand challenge impact
Mistakes can be corrected, successes replicated
World’s main focus since 2008
Food
• Price
• Access
Development
• Employment
• Energy poverty alleviation
• Education
Land Management
• Land use
• Integrated production
• Fertility
• Water
Social
• Land tenure/land grab
• Gender
• Distribution of benefits
Technology
• Production models
• Innovation
Environment
• Water
• GHG
• Climate
Bioenergy

12. Risk of inaction: The world will miss out
on bioenergy’s contribution to meeting
grand challenges
Risk of action: We will manage some bioenergy
linkages poorly, thus compromising things
we care about
No further bioenergy development
 no further grand challenge impact
Mistakes can be corrected, successes replicated
World’s main focus since 2008
Larger risk today
Food
• Price
• Access
Development
• Employment
• Energy poverty alleviation
• Education
Land Management
• Land use
• Integrated production
• Fertility
• Water
Social
• Land tenure/land grab
• Gender
• Distribution of benefits
Technology
• Production models
• Innovation
Environment
• Water
• GHG
• Climate
Bioenergy