Discussion Topic 1: Economic Security and Development

1. Govinda R. Timilsina
The World Bank, Washington, DC
Biofuels and Food Security Workshop
International Food Policy Research Institute
November 19-20, 2014
Washington DC

2.  Countries with no land constraints but entirely depends on imports for
petroleum supply (e.g., several sub-Saharan countries)
Mali (Boccanfuso et al. 2013); Zambia (de Gorter et al. 2013); Tanzania –
(Arndt et al. 2010a)
 Countries with advance biofuel industry and no land constraints (Brazil,
Argentina)
(Timilsina et al. 2012 in various countries; Timilsina et al. (2013) for
Argentina; Arndt et al. 2010b for Mozambique)

3.  Biofuels is expected to contribute energy security in countries:
 Entirely depend on imports for their petroleum supply
And
 Have favorable conditions for feedstock production (e.g., several
sub-Saharan countries with no constraints for arable lands)
 Our analysis show that biofuels are competitive in:
Mali (Boccanfuso et al. 2013)
Zambia (Sinkala et al. 2013)
Zimbabwe

4. 196
78
218
131
261
222
90
Jatropha
(48.6/kg&
3t/ha)
Jatropha
(19.5/kg&
3t/ha)
Jatropha
(32.5/kg&
5t/ha)
Jatropha
(19.5/kg&
5t/ha)
Jatropha
(19.5/kg&
10t/ha)
Paddy+Wheat
+Maize
Wheat+Maize
1.7
1.2
0.8
Yield: 3t/ha Yield: 5t/ha Yield: 10t/ha
Current wholesale diesel price (0.9 US$/Liter)
Economics of jatropha biodiesel in Nepal
Opportunity Cost of Arable Lands (Gross Margin – US$/ha) Production cost of biodiesel (US$/Liter)
Source: Timilsina and Tiwari (2014)

5.  Agricultural based countries with higher rate of rural poverty, biofuels
could help reduce poverty; countries with higher rate of urban poverty it
may not.
Mali -- jatropha biodiesel (Boccanfuso et al. 2013)
Global – reduces rural poverty and slow down rural to urban migration
(Cororaton and Timilsina, 2012)
Zambia – Soybean biodiesel (de Gorter et al. 2013)
Tanzania – Sugar and Cassava (Arndt et al. 2010a)
Mozambique – Sugar (Arndt, 2010b)
 Biofuels development approach (large-scale commercial plantation vs.
smallholdings)
Tanzania – Sugar and Cassava (Arndt et al. 2010a)
Mozambique – Sugar (Arndt, 2010b)

6.  Biofuels produce higher economic value than other products from the
same lands (value chain analysis, economy-wide impacts, job
creation, increase yield)
 Biofuels is economically attractive than petroleum products including
climate change mitigation and other environmental benefits

7. Arndt C, R Benfica, F Tarp, J Thurlow, R Uaiene. 2010b. “Biofuels, poverty, and growth: a computable
general equilibrium analysis of Mozambique,” Environment and Development Economics, 15(01): 81-
105.
Arndt, C., Pauw, K., Thurlow, J., 2010a. Biofuels and economic development in Tanzania. Discussion paper
966, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.
Dorothée Boccanfuso, Massa Coulibaly, Govinda R. Timilsina and Luc Savard (2013), Macroeconomic and
Distributional Impacts of Jatropha-based Biodiesel in Mali, Policy Research Working Paper 6500,
World Bank, Washington, DC
Govinda R. Timilsia, John Beghin, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe and Simon Mevel (2012), The Impacts
of Biofuel Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global CGE Assessment, Agriculture
Economics, Vol. 43, pp. 313-330.
Govinda R. Timilsia, Omar O.Chisari and Carlos A. Romero (2013). Economy-wide Impacts of Biofuels in
Argentina, Energy Policy, Vol. 55, pp. 636-647.
Govinda R. Timilsina and Ujjal Tiwari (2014), An Economic Analysis of Jatropha Biodiesel in Nepal,
Unpublished Working Paper, World Bank, Washington, DC
Harry de Gorter, Dusan Drabik and Govinda R. Timilsina (2013), Should Zambia Produce Biodiesel from
Soybeans? Policy Research Working Paper 6498, World Bank, Washington, DC
Thomson Sinkala, Govinda R. Timilsina and Indira J. Ekanayake (2013), Are Biofuels Economically
Competitive with Their Petroleum Counterparts? Production Cost Analysis for Zambia, Policy
Research Working Paper 6499, World Bank, Washington, DC