Storm aftermath indonesia coal sector
•
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After its downfall in the past years, where is it heading ?
![Indonesia is
accelerating its
energy
infrastructure
157 MW
1945
[Independence]
45,000 MW
2015
95,000 MW
2020
125,000 MW
2025
>30%
COAL-FIRED
POWER PLANT
*Energy mix target by 2025 : coal will contribute more than 30% (RUPTL PLN 2016-2025).](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Storm aftermath indonesia coal sector
- 1. BEYOND THE STORM : INDONESIA COAL SECTOR
- 2. Indonesia is accelerating its energy infrastructure 157 MW 1945 [Independence] 45,000 MW 2015 95,000 MW 2020 125,000 MW 2025 >30% COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT *Energy mix target by 2025 : coal will contribute more than 30% (RUPTL PLN 2016-2025).
- 3. Domestic coal consumption is expected to double by 2020 *Domestic coal production 2015 : 400 million tons (300 million tons were exported). COAL-FIRED PLANT INSTALLED CAPACITY DOMESTIC COAL CONSUMPTION FOR POWER GENERATION 23,000 MW (75% STATE & 25% IPP) 52,000 MW (45% STATE & 55% IPP) 58,000 MW (47% STATE & 53% IPP) 70 MILLION TONS 155 MILLION TONS 172 MILLION TONS 2015 2020 2025
- 4. Today’s coal i ers are to orro ’s e ergy pro iders *Indonesia will only use supercritical & ultra supercritical boiler to lowering its carbon emission. MINE-MOUTH POWER PLANT 25 – 30 YEARS CONTRACT PERIOD 25% GUARANTEED MARGIN
- 5. The bargain : public coal companies *NAV assumption : 75% recoverable reserves, $ 30 coal price per ton, 80% margin of safety. $ 42B NAV $ 8B MARKET CAP 80% DISCOUNT approximately $ 1.9B public float 2015 book value at $ 5.6B with P/BV ranged from 0.2x to 12x
- 6. The Matrix ADRO.JK $ 4.5B NAV | $ 2B M.CAP | $ 0.8B FLOAT PTBA.JK $ 8.9B NAV | $ 1.4B M.CAP | $ 0.3B FLOAT BYAN.JK $ 4.3B NAV | $ 2B M.CAP | $ 0.2B FLOAT SMMT.JK $ 1.7B NAV | $ 0.03B M.CAP | $ 0.01B FLOAT HRUM.JK $ 0.3B NAV | $ 0.15B M.CAP | $ 0.05B FLOAT BSSR.JK $ 0.5B NAV | $ 0.2B M.CAP | $ 0.07B FLOAT MBAP.JK $ 0.2B NAV | $ 0.15B M.CAP | $ 0.02B FLOAT INDY.JK $ 2.9B NAV | $ 0.2B M.CAP | $ 0.07B FLOAT ITMG.JK $ 1B NAV | $ 0.7B M.CAP | $ 0.2B FLOAT GEMS.JK $ 2.8B NAV | $ 0.7B M.CAP | $ 0.02B FLOAT ARII.JK $ 1.4B NAV | $ 0.1B M.CAP | $ 0.04B FLOAT TOBA.JK $ 0.6B NAV | $ 0.1B M.CAP | $ 0.01B FLOAT KKGI.JK $ 0.5B NAV | $ 0.05B M.CAP | $ 0.02B FLOAT BUMI.JK $ 13B NAV | $ 0.2B M.CAP | $ 0.15B FLOAT
- 7. DISCLAIMER This research is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell of any securities.