Ises 2013 day 3 - professor mike sandiford (professor, university of melbourne) - crossroads to a sustainable future

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Ises 2013 day 3 - professor mike sandiford (professor, university of melbourne) - crossroads to a sustainable future

  1. 1. 1 ENERGY IN the sun ”burnt” country subtITLE “on Mountains, Carbon PAper & Kryder’s law”
  2. 2. 20 year halving 20 year DoUBLING “the black decade” GFC
  3. 3. WERE WE NEED TO BEGDP GROWTH > EMISSIONS Growth GDP GROWTH < EMISSIONS GROWTH
  4. 4. 4 GFC
  5. 5. 5 production consumption ProDUction 20 Tonnes Per CAP. 1.3 x NorWAY GAS +OIL ENERGY CONTENT
  6. 6. 6 ENERGY IN the sun ”burnt” country subtITLE “on Mountains, Carbon PAper & Kryder’s law”
  7. 7. 7 RENEWABLE SCENARIOS - ZCA 2020 (BZE/UoM), UNSW, AEMO
  8. 8. 8 1 cup of coffee/DAY 21 MILL. peOPLE 10 years - $270 billion *18 Kroners
  9. 9. 9 CARBON TAX, $23/TONNE FROM JULY 2012 C-TAX DAILy WHOLESALE PRICE LESS C-TAXDAILY WHOLESALE PRICE
  10. 10. 10 SO, It JUST ain’t Gonna HAPPEN ...
  11. 11. 11 ON Mountains, CARBON PAPER & KRYDER’s Law
  12. 12. 12 5 cm/yr 50 million years
  13. 13. VIC, 2009 MW 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan Temperature 20 25 30 35 40 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 10000 15 yotta Joules = 50 million years = energy RATE = = 1025 Joules 1015 seconds 1010 Watts 10 gigaWatts 6000 m, Tibetan Plateau 13
  14. 14. 14 electricity demand RECORD - Victoria, Australia, 29/1/2009 ~$550 mill. 20% annuaL spot MARKET rEVENUE, .... GW
  15. 15. 15 HoMO “Geologicus”
  16. 16. 16 consumpTION 4.5 Tonnes per Capita what the ?
  17. 17. WERE WE NEED TO BE
  18. 18. 2007 forward projection
  19. 19. -15%
  20. 20. 20 PV penetration - SouTH AUS. 0 -> 20% of households 2.5% redUCtioN HOUR OF DAY HOUR OF DAY
  21. 21. 21 tHE energy-only market AT RISK $1.1 bILL. $0.47 bILL. >50% REVENUE REDUCTION HOUR OF DAY HOUR OF DAY
  22. 22. the grid & the death spiral 22
  23. 23. 23 DEMOCRATIZING MoDern ENERGY PROVISION
  24. 24. 24 ON MOUNTAINS, CARBON PAPER & KRYDER’S LAW,
  25. 25. RE WILL HELP DEMOCRATIZE ENERGY PROVISION 25 green chemistry A NEW PRINTING REVOLUTION? ROLL-OVER GUTENBERG
  26. 26. 26 ..... THIS is not new news “Most interesting of all ... is the question whether man, by his prodigious combustion of coal …, is producing more [CO2] than can be eliminated by ordinary natural processes. If this production is excessive, the result eventually may be an unwelcome change in his atmospheric surroundings.“ Arthur Woodward, Foreword to “Man as a geological agent”, 1922.

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