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TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT
BTMU 1023
Lecture 7
Technology Identification
At the end of the lesson, the student should be able to
• Define technology identification
• Understand Technology and market interaction
• Explain technology push and technology pull
• Explain the use of horizon scanning/technology forecast
• Explain theiIdentification processes at the firm level
2
Lesson outcome
• Identification of technological opportunities and threats
• The goal is to spot technologies and their applications to the business
3
Definition
•Technology forecasting
•Technology foresight
•Technology road mapping
•Intelligence
4
Definition
Technology & Social Impact
Social Determinism
• Factors that affect the paths of
technological chance
• Scientific finding
• Market orientation
• SOCIETY
Example
• rapid rises in energy prices in
the 1970s led to dramatic
energy-saving innovations in the
1980s
5
Technology and social impact
6
society
technology
Technology and social impact
7
 The time lapse between discoveries of new knowledge &
commercialization can be short or long, depending upon the
willingness of society to embrace the change.
 e.g. took decade for TV but social networking sites like
Facebook exploded!
 So, an important part of technology identification is to
access the impacts of implementing a new technology on
both the firm & its external environmental.
Technology and social impact
8
Technology and market interaction
9
Technology and market interaction
10
High investment
Specific marketing strategy
Technology push
11
Incremental innovation
Lead user driven innovation
Market pull
12
Trend vs emerging issues
Trends
identify something important in the present, trace
back its historical development and then cast that rate
of development ahead into the future and see what
that reveals.
Usually useful but not always accurate
Trends are mainstream
 trends might not continue because of interference by
an "emerging issue
13
Trend vs emerging issues
Emerging issues
• then an emerging issue is a possible new technology, a
potential public policy issue, or a new concept
• these emerging issues are not yet mature: the tech is still in
a lab somewhere, politicians don’t yet feel the heat enough
to address a “future” policy problem, and only fringe
thinkers are talking about some “radical” new concept
14
Trend vs emerging issues
• forward‐looking activity for identifying “things to come,” often new
science and technology
• is not regarded as a strategy building activity, but can be a step
towards strategy much as foresight is also only a “step in planning”
(Coates, 1985).
• Also known as foresight ( some argued HS is at the beginning of
foresight activities)
• Foresight(HS) does not predict the future, but rather explores the range
of plausible futures that may emerge. It's one of the best tools to
support open policy making. Forecasting is the process of making
predictions about the future, based on past and present data and the
analysis of trend
15
Horizon scanning
Garbie,2016)
16
Horizon scanning activities
17
Horizon scanning activities
• Technology auditing
• Forecasting technology, market and external environment
• Identification of capabilities
• Documenting and disseminating the information
18
Identification process
• Purpose
• Evaluate the status on in-
house technologies
19
Technology auditing
• Steps
20
Identify List Rank
Maturity
level
Competitive
position
Level of
competencies
Based on different criteria
Technology auditing
• How to identify?
Product technology matrix
21
Technology auditing
• List technology based on market-product-technology matrix
22
Technology auditing
23
Technology auditing
24
Assesing the technology level of maturity
• Introduction: a new product is introduced into the marketplace. Only
one or two firms have entered the market, and the competition is
limited. The rate of sales growth depends on the newness of the
product. Generally, a product modification generates faster sales
than a major innovation. The technology performance of the
innovation increases slowly ( new technology)
• Growth: a new product gains wider consumer acceptance and the
objective is to expand the range of available product alternatives.
Industry sales increase rapidly as a few more firms enter the
marketplace. To accommodate the growing market, modified
versions of basic models are offered. Successive incremental
innovations increase the technology performance rate of the
product( pacing technology)
25
S curve ( Nieto et al; 2016)
• Maturity: industry sales stabilize as the market becomes saturated
and many firms enter to capitalize on the still sizable demand. The
possibilities of increasing product contributions are limited.
Innovations are less frequent. In the maturity stage, some pacing
technologies turn into key technologies, are integrated into products
or processes, and maintain their high competitive impact
• Saturation : As soon as a technology loses its competitive impact, it
becomes a base technology. It enters the saturation stage and might
be replaced by a new technology
26
S curve ( Nieto et al; 2016)
27
S curve ( Nieto et al; 2016)
28
Assessing technological competencies
Technology forecast (TF) is concerned with the investigation of new
trends, radically new technologies, and new forces which could arise
from the interplay of factors such as new public concerns, national
policies and scientific discoveries. Many of these forces are beyond the
control, influence and knowledge of individual companies.
Technology foresight is a “vision”. It goes further than forecasting,
including aspects of networking and the preparation of decisions
concerning the future. This is one reason why, in the 1990s, when
foresight focused attention on a national scale in many countries, the
wording also changed from forecasting to foresight. Foresight is not
planning, but foresight results provide 'information' about the future
and are therefore one step in the planning and preparation of
decisions.
29
Technology forecast and technology
foresight
• Market and technological trends
facing company
• Strategy
• Actions
• Market and technological trends
for specific sectors
• Priorities & policy recommendations
• Support
• Market and technological trends
for broad industry areas
• Priorities & policy recommendations
30
Linking national foresight to company
action
31
A technology roadmap is a document or guide that outlines an organization's
technology initiatives, products, services and strategies. It details the technology
your business is already using, what you will need to implement in the future,
how to avoid risks and costly mistakes and how to upgrade outdated
technologies
Technology roadmap
32
Technology roadmap- example
33
Technology roadmap- example
References
1. Cetindamar, D., Phaal, R., & Probert, D.
(2016). Technology management: activities and
tools. Macmillan International Higher Education.
2. Other sources from the internet
34

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LECTURE 9: Technology Identification

  • 1. 1 TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT BTMU 1023 Lecture 7 Technology Identification
  • 2. At the end of the lesson, the student should be able to • Define technology identification • Understand Technology and market interaction • Explain technology push and technology pull • Explain the use of horizon scanning/technology forecast • Explain theiIdentification processes at the firm level 2 Lesson outcome
  • 3. • Identification of technological opportunities and threats • The goal is to spot technologies and their applications to the business 3 Definition
  • 4. •Technology forecasting •Technology foresight •Technology road mapping •Intelligence 4 Definition
  • 5. Technology & Social Impact Social Determinism • Factors that affect the paths of technological chance • Scientific finding • Market orientation • SOCIETY Example • rapid rises in energy prices in the 1970s led to dramatic energy-saving innovations in the 1980s 5 Technology and social impact
  • 7. 7  The time lapse between discoveries of new knowledge & commercialization can be short or long, depending upon the willingness of society to embrace the change.  e.g. took decade for TV but social networking sites like Facebook exploded!  So, an important part of technology identification is to access the impacts of implementing a new technology on both the firm & its external environmental. Technology and social impact
  • 10. 10 High investment Specific marketing strategy Technology push
  • 11. 11 Incremental innovation Lead user driven innovation Market pull
  • 13. Trends identify something important in the present, trace back its historical development and then cast that rate of development ahead into the future and see what that reveals. Usually useful but not always accurate Trends are mainstream  trends might not continue because of interference by an "emerging issue 13 Trend vs emerging issues
  • 14. Emerging issues • then an emerging issue is a possible new technology, a potential public policy issue, or a new concept • these emerging issues are not yet mature: the tech is still in a lab somewhere, politicians don’t yet feel the heat enough to address a “future” policy problem, and only fringe thinkers are talking about some “radical” new concept 14 Trend vs emerging issues
  • 15. • forward‐looking activity for identifying “things to come,” often new science and technology • is not regarded as a strategy building activity, but can be a step towards strategy much as foresight is also only a “step in planning” (Coates, 1985). • Also known as foresight ( some argued HS is at the beginning of foresight activities) • Foresight(HS) does not predict the future, but rather explores the range of plausible futures that may emerge. It's one of the best tools to support open policy making. Forecasting is the process of making predictions about the future, based on past and present data and the analysis of trend 15 Horizon scanning
  • 18. • Technology auditing • Forecasting technology, market and external environment • Identification of capabilities • Documenting and disseminating the information 18 Identification process
  • 19. • Purpose • Evaluate the status on in- house technologies 19 Technology auditing
  • 20. • Steps 20 Identify List Rank Maturity level Competitive position Level of competencies Based on different criteria Technology auditing
  • 21. • How to identify? Product technology matrix 21 Technology auditing
  • 22. • List technology based on market-product-technology matrix 22 Technology auditing
  • 24. 24 Assesing the technology level of maturity
  • 25. • Introduction: a new product is introduced into the marketplace. Only one or two firms have entered the market, and the competition is limited. The rate of sales growth depends on the newness of the product. Generally, a product modification generates faster sales than a major innovation. The technology performance of the innovation increases slowly ( new technology) • Growth: a new product gains wider consumer acceptance and the objective is to expand the range of available product alternatives. Industry sales increase rapidly as a few more firms enter the marketplace. To accommodate the growing market, modified versions of basic models are offered. Successive incremental innovations increase the technology performance rate of the product( pacing technology) 25 S curve ( Nieto et al; 2016)
  • 26. • Maturity: industry sales stabilize as the market becomes saturated and many firms enter to capitalize on the still sizable demand. The possibilities of increasing product contributions are limited. Innovations are less frequent. In the maturity stage, some pacing technologies turn into key technologies, are integrated into products or processes, and maintain their high competitive impact • Saturation : As soon as a technology loses its competitive impact, it becomes a base technology. It enters the saturation stage and might be replaced by a new technology 26 S curve ( Nieto et al; 2016)
  • 27. 27 S curve ( Nieto et al; 2016)
  • 29. Technology forecast (TF) is concerned with the investigation of new trends, radically new technologies, and new forces which could arise from the interplay of factors such as new public concerns, national policies and scientific discoveries. Many of these forces are beyond the control, influence and knowledge of individual companies. Technology foresight is a “vision”. It goes further than forecasting, including aspects of networking and the preparation of decisions concerning the future. This is one reason why, in the 1990s, when foresight focused attention on a national scale in many countries, the wording also changed from forecasting to foresight. Foresight is not planning, but foresight results provide 'information' about the future and are therefore one step in the planning and preparation of decisions. 29 Technology forecast and technology foresight
  • 30. • Market and technological trends facing company • Strategy • Actions • Market and technological trends for specific sectors • Priorities & policy recommendations • Support • Market and technological trends for broad industry areas • Priorities & policy recommendations 30 Linking national foresight to company action
  • 31. 31 A technology roadmap is a document or guide that outlines an organization's technology initiatives, products, services and strategies. It details the technology your business is already using, what you will need to implement in the future, how to avoid risks and costly mistakes and how to upgrade outdated technologies Technology roadmap
  • 34. References 1. Cetindamar, D., Phaal, R., & Probert, D. (2016). Technology management: activities and tools. Macmillan International Higher Education. 2. Other sources from the internet 34