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1. Technology Intelligence & ForecastingTechnology Intelligence & Forecasting
By: Muhammad AzadBy: Muhammad Azad
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2. What is Technology Intelligence ?What is Technology Intelligence ?
• Technology Intelligence (TI) is an activity that enables companies toTechnology Intelligence (TI) is an activity that enables companies to
identify the technological opportunities and threats that could affectidentify the technological opportunities and threats that could affect
the future growth and survival of their business.the future growth and survival of their business.
• The Centre for Technology Management defines TechnologyThe Centre for Technology Management defines Technology
Intelligence as "the capture and delivery of technological informationIntelligence as "the capture and delivery of technological information
as part of the process whereby an organization develops anas part of the process whereby an organization develops an
awareness of technological threats and opportunities.”awareness of technological threats and opportunities.”
• Technology Intelligence aims to capture and disseminate theTechnology Intelligence aims to capture and disseminate the
technological information needed for strategic planning and decisiontechnological information needed for strategic planning and decision
making.making.
• Companies install an intelligence system (technology, market,Companies install an intelligence system (technology, market,
business or competitive intelligence) to collect and analyzebusiness or competitive intelligence) to collect and analyze
information on market, product, and technology changes and oninformation on market, product, and technology changes and on
other environmental transformations in order to increase theirother environmental transformations in order to increase their
decision-making quality and competitiveness.decision-making quality and competitiveness.
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3. What is Technology Intelligence?What is Technology Intelligence?
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4. What is Technology Intelligence ?What is Technology Intelligence ?
• Why Technology Intelligence?Why Technology Intelligence?
• As technology life cycles shorten and business becomeAs technology life cycles shorten and business become
more globalized; having effective T I capabilities ismore globalized; having effective T I capabilities is
becoming increasingly important.becoming increasingly important.
• T I provides an understanding of current & potentialT I provides an understanding of current & potential
changes taking place in the environment.changes taking place in the environment.
• T I provides important information for strategic decision-T I provides important information for strategic decision-
makersmakers
• T I facilitates and fosters strategic thinking inT I facilitates and fosters strategic thinking in
organizations.organizations.
• If conducted properly, T I leads to enhanced capacity &If conducted properly, T I leads to enhanced capacity &
commitment to understanding, anticipating andcommitment to understanding, anticipating and
responding to external changesresponding to external changes
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5. Levels of Technology Intelligence ?Levels of Technology Intelligence ?
Three levels of T IThree levels of T I
•Macro level – technological trends & developments which canMacro level – technological trends & developments which can
influence entire economy / major sectorsinfluence entire economy / major sectors
•Industry or business level - technological trends &Industry or business level - technological trends &
developments which can influence specific industries /developments which can influence specific industries /
businessesbusinesses
•Program or project level – technological trends &Program or project level – technological trends &
developments which can influence specific technology relateddevelopments which can influence specific technology related
program or projectprogram or project
The above three levels differ in terms of• Breadth of technologyThe above three levels differ in terms of• Breadth of technology
•Clarity of trendsClarity of trends
•Degree of precision of trendsDegree of precision of trends
•Different levels of technology intelligence can be applied /Different levels of technology intelligence can be applied /
useful in different contextuseful in different context
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6. What is Technology Mapping ?What is Technology Mapping ?
• Technology Intelligence could be both internal asTechnology Intelligence could be both internal as
well as external. Internal technology intelligencewell as external. Internal technology intelligence
is called technology audit.is called technology audit.
• External technology intelligence is calledExternal technology intelligence is called
technology mapping.technology mapping.
• Mapping technology environment refers to theMapping technology environment refers to the
process of gathering external data and analyzingprocess of gathering external data and analyzing
it to derive the intelligence for major strategicit to derive the intelligence for major strategic
decisions.decisions.
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7. What is Technology Mapping ?What is Technology Mapping ?
Process of mapping the technology environmentProcess of mapping the technology environment
consists of four interlinked steps:consists of four interlinked steps:
1.1.Scanning the environment to detect ongoing &Scanning the environment to detect ongoing &
emerging changesemerging changes
2.2.Monitoring specific environment trends &Monitoring specific environment trends &
patternspatterns
3.3.Forecasting the future direction of technologicalForecasting the future direction of technological
changeschanges
4.4.Assessing the current & future environmentalAssessing the current & future environmental
changes for understanding their strategic &changes for understanding their strategic &
organizational implicationsorganizational implications
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8. Steps in gathering TechnologySteps in gathering Technology
Intellegence.Intellegence.
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9. What is Technology Forecasting ?What is Technology Forecasting ?
• Technological forecastingTechnological forecasting
 is a combination of creative thinking, expert viewsis a combination of creative thinking, expert views
and alternative scenarios to make a contribution toand alternative scenarios to make a contribution to
strategic planning. The future is almost bystrategic planning. The future is almost by definitiondefinition
unknown, but in bothunknown, but in both forecastingforecasting and foresightand foresight
activities the judgments or opinions of experts areactivities the judgments or opinions of experts are
used.used.
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10. Elements of Technology ForecastingElements of Technology Forecasting
1.1. Time of the forecast – a single point of time, orTime of the forecast – a single point of time, or
a time span.a time span.
2.2. Approach in Technology ForecastingApproach in Technology Forecasting
3.3. Statement of functional capability /Statement of functional capability /
performance characteristics of technology – aperformance characteristics of technology – a
quantitative measure of its ability to carry outquantitative measure of its ability to carry out
the functions.the functions.
4.4. Statement of ProbabilityStatement of Probability
1.1. Probability of achieving a given level of functionalProbability of achieving a given level of functional
capability by a certain time; orcapability by a certain time; or
2.2. Probability distribution over the levels that might beProbability distribution over the levels that might be
achieved by a specific time.achieved by a specific time.
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11. Why Forecast Technology?Why Forecast Technology?
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12. Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?
• Since 1990s rate of technological change hasSince 1990s rate of technological change has
become faster. Individual, organization or nationbecome faster. Individual, organization or nation
affected by technological change as itaffected by technological change as it
invalidates previous resource allocation basedinvalidates previous resource allocation based
on historical facts / data. Therefore technologyon historical facts / data. Therefore technology
forecast is no more avoidable.forecast is no more avoidable.
• Following factors necessitate forecast ofFollowing factors necessitate forecast of
technology:technology:
• To maximize gain from events external to anTo maximize gain from events external to an
organizationorganization
• To minimize loss associated with uncontrollableTo minimize loss associated with uncontrollable
events external to an organization.events external to an organization. 1–12

13. Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?
• To maximize gain from events that are result of actionTo maximize gain from events that are result of action
taken by an organization.taken by an organization.
• To offset the actions of hostile or competitiveTo offset the actions of hostile or competitive
organizationsorganizations
• To forecast demand for production and /or inventoryTo forecast demand for production and /or inventory
control.control.
• To forecast demand for facilities and capital planning.To forecast demand for facilities and capital planning.
• To forecast demand to ensure adequate staffingTo forecast demand to ensure adequate staffing
• To develop administrative plans & policies internal to anTo develop administrative plans & policies internal to an
organization.organization.
• To develop policies that apply to people who are not partTo develop policies that apply to people who are not part
of the organizationof the organization
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14. Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?
According to Ralph Lenz, technology forecast can play followingAccording to Ralph Lenz, technology forecast can play following
specific roles in improving the quality of technology decisions:specific roles in improving the quality of technology decisions:
•The forecast identifies limits beyond which it is not possible toThe forecast identifies limits beyond which it is not possible to
go.go.
•It establishes feasible rates of progress, so that the plan canIt establishes feasible rates of progress, so that the plan can
be made to take full advantage of such rates of progress,be made to take full advantage of such rates of progress,
•It describes the alternatives that are open for choice.It describes the alternatives that are open for choice.
•It indicates the possibilities that might be achieved if desired.It indicates the possibilities that might be achieved if desired.
•It provides a reference standard for the plan. Thus the plan canIt provides a reference standard for the plan. Thus the plan can
be compared with the forecast at any point in time to determinebe compared with the forecast at any point in time to determine
whether it can still be fulfilled or whether because of changes inwhether it can still be fulfilled or whether because of changes in
the forecast, it has to be changed.the forecast, it has to be changed.
•It furnishes warning signals which can alert the decision makerIt furnishes warning signals which can alert the decision maker
that it will not be possible to continue present activities.that it will not be possible to continue present activities.
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15. Techniques of Technology ForecastingTechniques of Technology Forecasting
Ideally technology forecasting should be rational andIdeally technology forecasting should be rational and
analytical based on available pertinent data. In followinganalytical based on available pertinent data. In following
three situations / circumstances expert opinion may bethree situations / circumstances expert opinion may be
sought for making technology forecast:sought for making technology forecast:
•No historical data exists – as it could be new technology /No historical data exists – as it could be new technology /
new area of research & developmentnew area of research & development
•Impact of external factors may be more important thanImpact of external factors may be more important than
the factors which governed previous development ofthe factors which governed previous development of
technology- i.e. past data has become irrelevant andtechnology- i.e. past data has become irrelevant and
cannot be relied for making technology forecastcannot be relied for making technology forecast
•Ethical or moral considerations may dominate economicEthical or moral considerations may dominate economic
& technical considerations thus seeking lesser reliance on& technical considerations thus seeking lesser reliance on
available data.available data.
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16. Techniques of Technology ForecastingTechniques of Technology Forecasting
In above three situations, as the historical data is eitherIn above three situations, as the historical data is either
not available or it has become irrelevant, group of expertsnot available or it has become irrelevant, group of experts
are used to make technology forecast; as there is an oldare used to make technology forecast; as there is an old
saying -- “Two heads are better than one.” By involving asaying -- “Two heads are better than one.” By involving a
number of experts, there is pooling of divergent ideas andnumber of experts, there is pooling of divergent ideas and
various dimensions may be analyzed in better mannervarious dimensions may be analyzed in better manner
thus leading to a better technology forecast.thus leading to a better technology forecast.
•A. Techniques involving a group of experts are :A. Techniques involving a group of experts are :
1.1. CommitteesCommittees
2.2. DelphiDelphi
•B. Other Techniques based on historical data are :B. Other Techniques based on historical data are :
3.3. Exploratory ForecastExploratory Forecast
4.4. Normative ForecastNormative Forecast
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17. 1. Committees1. Committees
Key advantages of committees are as under:Key advantages of committees are as under:
•Sum total of knowledge is greater than individualSum total of knowledge is greater than individual
knowledgeknowledge
•Number of factors considered would be moreNumber of factors considered would be more
than those considered by an individualthan those considered by an individual
•There is pooling of divergent ideas and variousThere is pooling of divergent ideas and various
dimensions may be analyzed in a better mannerdimensions may be analyzed in a better manner
•Helps in avoiding individual biasesHelps in avoiding individual biases
•Better knowledge & awareness of one memberBetter knowledge & awareness of one member
may compensate for lack of knowledge of anothermay compensate for lack of knowledge of another
member.member.
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18. 1. Committees1. Committees
Few limitations associated with committees are :Few limitations associated with committees are :
•There is no guarantee that misinformation will beThere is no guarantee that misinformation will be
cancelled out by using a group of experts.cancelled out by using a group of experts.
•There is no guarantee that wrong ideas /There is no guarantee that wrong ideas /
judgments will be cancelled out by good ideas /judgments will be cancelled out by good ideas /
judgments.judgments.
•There is usually social pressure to agree withThere is usually social pressure to agree with
majority, which may be implicit or explicit.majority, which may be implicit or explicit.
•Reaching agreement becomes a goal in itself.Reaching agreement becomes a goal in itself.
Good forecasts may thus be watered down in aGood forecasts may thus be watered down in a
bid to reach a consensus.bid to reach a consensus.
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19. 1. Committees1. Committees
• A strong vocal minority may overwhelmA strong vocal minority may overwhelm
majority , thus making process vulnerable tomajority , thus making process vulnerable to
hijack by dominant individualshijack by dominant individuals
• Vested interests may be presented very stronglyVested interests may be presented very strongly
in the beginning thus setting defined direction inin the beginning thus setting defined direction in
the beginningthe beginning
• Entire group may share a common bias if aEntire group may share a common bias if a
common culture is shared by all of them thuscommon culture is shared by all of them thus
nullifying advantage of the group.nullifying advantage of the group.
• There may be emotional involvement of certainThere may be emotional involvement of certain
members, leading to conflictsmembers, leading to conflicts
 Lot of time and efforts may be consumed in reachingLot of time and efforts may be consumed in reaching
to a consensusto a consensus
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20. 2. Delphi2. Delphi
Three characteristics that distinguish Delphi fromThree characteristics that distinguish Delphi from
conventional face to face group interactions ( likeconventional face to face group interactions ( like
committee) are as under:committee) are as under:
1.1.Anonymity - anonymity is maintained throughAnonymity - anonymity is maintained through
questionnaire as under :questionnaire as under :
a.a. Avoids possibility of identifying a specific opinionAvoids possibility of identifying a specific opinion
with a particular person.with a particular person.
b.b. Originator can thus change his mind withoutOriginator can thus change his mind without
publicity admitting that he has done so.publicity admitting that he has done so.
c.c. Each idea can be considered on its merits,Each idea can be considered on its merits,
regardless of the fact whether group members mayregardless of the fact whether group members may
have high or low opinion about originator.have high or low opinion about originator.
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21. 2. Delphi2. Delphi
2.2. Interaction with controlled feed backInteraction with controlled feed back
 Group interaction is through questionnaires andGroup interaction is through questionnaires and
answers to questionnairesanswers to questionnaires
 Coordinator / moderator picks relevant information's &Coordinator / moderator picks relevant information's &
each group member is informed of status of group’seach group member is informed of status of group’s
collective opinion & arguments for & against eachcollective opinion & arguments for & against each
point of view.point of view.
 Controlled feedback prevents group taking rigid standControlled feedback prevents group taking rigid stand
& helps to concentrate on its original objectives.& helps to concentrate on its original objectives.
3.3. Statistical Group responseStatistical Group response
 Delphi presents the statistical group reponse thatDelphi presents the statistical group reponse that
presents the opinions of entire group giving both thepresents the opinions of entire group giving both the
“Centre” of the group and the degree of spread about“Centre” of the group and the degree of spread about
that centerthat center
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22. 2. Delphi2. Delphi
Limitations / Disadvantages of DelphiLimitations / Disadvantages of Delphi
 The success of Delphi mainly lies in coordinator.The success of Delphi mainly lies in coordinator.
 The experts must carry relevant experienceThe experts must carry relevant experience
 Further like committee, Delphi is based on opinionsFurther like committee, Delphi is based on opinions
and not on data.and not on data.
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23. 3. Exploratory Forecast3. Exploratory Forecast
 An Exploratory Forecast starts with past &An Exploratory Forecast starts with past &
present conditions and projects these topresent conditions and projects these to
estimate future conditions.estimate future conditions.
 The exploratory forecast is based on technologyThe exploratory forecast is based on technology
push and is opportunity oriented i.e. searchingpush and is opportunity oriented i.e. searching
for future opportunities.for future opportunities.
 Exploratory forecast implicitly assumes thatExploratory forecast implicitly assumes that
required performance can be achieved byrequired performance can be achieved by
reasonable extension of past performance.reasonable extension of past performance.
 Commonly used techniques of exploratoryCommonly used techniques of exploratory
forecast are : Trend extrapolationforecast are : Trend extrapolation
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24. 3. Exploratory Forecast3. Exploratory Forecast
Trend ExtrapolationTrend Extrapolation
Assumption: Time series data from the pastAssumption: Time series data from the past
contains all the information needed to forecast thecontains all the information needed to forecast the
future.future.
The forecaster extends a pattern found byThe forecaster extends a pattern found by
analyzing past time series data.analyzing past time series data.
For example: A technological forecasting toFor example: A technological forecasting to
forecast future aircraft speed …. by studyingforecast future aircraft speed …. by studying
historical time series of aircraft speed records, byhistorical time series of aircraft speed records, by
finding a pattern (trend), and extending it to thefinding a pattern (trend), and extending it to the
future to obtain a forecast.future to obtain a forecast.
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25. 4. Normative Forecast4. Normative Forecast
 A Normative Forecast starts with future needsA Normative Forecast starts with future needs
and identifies the technological performanceand identifies the technological performance
necessary to meet these required needs.necessary to meet these required needs.
 The normative forecast is based on market pullThe normative forecast is based on market pull
and is mission / need –oriented i.e. finding waysand is mission / need –oriented i.e. finding ways
for meeting future needs.for meeting future needs.
 Normative forecast implicitly forecasts theNormative forecast implicitly forecasts the
capabilities that will be available on thecapabilities that will be available on the
assumption that needs will be met . Thus in caseassumption that needs will be met . Thus in case
of normative forecast, meeting needs on definedof normative forecast, meeting needs on defined
future time is highly importantfuture time is highly important
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26. Exploratory &Normative ForecastExploratory &Normative Forecast
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27. 4. Normative Forecast4. Normative Forecast
 Few techniques of Normative TechnologicalFew techniques of Normative Technological
Forecasting are as under:Forecasting are as under:
Relevance's TreesRelevance's Trees
Decision Matrices : Horizontal or verticalDecision Matrices : Horizontal or vertical
Morphological AnalysisMorphological Analysis
Network TechniquesNetwork Techniques
Mission Flow Diagrams etcMission Flow Diagrams etc
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28. 4. Normative Forecast4. Normative Forecast
 Morphological AnalysisMorphological Analysis
 It is a normative technique developed by Fritz wicky whichIt is a normative technique developed by Fritz wicky which
provides a framework for exploring all possible solutions to aprovides a framework for exploring all possible solutions to a
particular problem. The morphological analysis involves theparticular problem. The morphological analysis involves the
systematic study of the current and future scenarios of asystematic study of the current and future scenarios of a
particular problem. Based on this study, possible gaps areparticular problem. Based on this study, possible gaps are
identified and the morphological analysis further provides aidentified and the morphological analysis further provides a
framework to explore other alternatives to fill these gaps.framework to explore other alternatives to fill these gaps.
 Relevance TreesRelevance Trees
 It is an organized ‘normative’ approach starting with a particularIt is an organized ‘normative’ approach starting with a particular
objective and used for forecasting as well as planning. The basicobjective and used for forecasting as well as planning. The basic
structure looks like an organizational chart and presentsstructure looks like an organizational chart and presents
information in a hierarchical structure. The hierarchy begins withinformation in a hierarchical structure. The hierarchy begins with
the objectives which are further broken down into activities andthe objectives which are further broken down into activities and
further into tasks. As one descends down, the details increase atfurther into tasks. As one descends down, the details increase at
every level. The entries when taken together at each levelevery level. The entries when taken together at each level
describe the preceding level completely. Also, all activities anddescribe the preceding level completely. Also, all activities and
tasks depicted should be mutually exclusivetasks depicted should be mutually exclusive
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29. 4. Normative Forecast4. Normative Forecast
 A mission / control flow diagram (CFD) is a diagram toA mission / control flow diagram (CFD) is a diagram to
describe the control flow of a business process, processdescribe the control flow of a business process, process
or programor program
 Mission Flow Diagrams - have been originally conceivedMission Flow Diagrams - have been originally conceived
by Harold Linstone as a means of analyzing militaryby Harold Linstone as a means of analyzing military
missions. This involves mapping all the alternative routesmissions. This involves mapping all the alternative routes
or sequences by which a given task can beor sequences by which a given task can be
accomplished. The analyst needs to identify significantaccomplished. The analyst needs to identify significant
steps on each route and also determine thesteps on each route and also determine the
challenges/costs associated with each route. Thechallenges/costs associated with each route. The
performance requirements can then be derived for eachperformance requirements can then be derived for each
associated technology and the same can be used asassociated technology and the same can be used as
normative forecasts.normative forecasts.
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30. 4. Normative Forecast4. Normative Forecast
 Network TechniqueNetwork Technique
 Firstly, the elements of a technological forecastingFirstly, the elements of a technological forecasting
network are formulated for the purpose of convertingnetwork are formulated for the purpose of converting
the qualitative description of a technological system tothe qualitative description of a technological system to
a stochastic (non- deterministic) network form.a stochastic (non- deterministic) network form.
 Then, an analytical procedure for the synthesis of theThen, an analytical procedure for the synthesis of the
network is given.network is given.
 Finally, examples are included for the purpose ofFinally, examples are included for the purpose of
illustration.illustration.
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31. Choosing a Forecasting TechniqueChoosing a Forecasting Technique
 No single technique works in every situationNo single technique works in every situation
 Two most important factorsTwo most important factors
 CostCost
 AccuracyAccuracy
 Other factors include the availability of:Other factors include the availability of:
 Historical dataHistorical data
 ComputersComputers
 Time needed to gather and analyze the dataTime needed to gather and analyze the data
 Forecast horizonForecast horizon
© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 1–31

32. Case StudyCase Study
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