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Avocado Retail Quality Surveys




    Joanna Embry Avocados Australia
Presentation Overview
• Why conduct quality surveys
• What quality parameters to survey
  – Consumer sensory testing
  – Online survey
• Results to date
• Where to from here
Consumer sensory panels and
      online surveys
• Ripeness
  – level of ripeness (firmness) preferred by
    consumers
• Internal flesh quality
  – maximum acceptable level of internal defects at
    different price points above which future
    consumer purchasing decisions are negatively
    influenced
• Maturity
  – minimum maturity (measured by DM%) that
    produces Hass avocados of acceptable eating
    quality
Ripeness
     C: Purchase intent for different ripeness levels




• 85% of consumers have a preference to purchase
avocados that are ready to eat/use immediately
• Consumers prefer soft ripe and medium ripe avocados
• Consumers select for ripeness on colour then
squeezing
Internal Quality
• Severity of defect was of primary
  importance followed by price
• At all prices an incidence of more than
  10% internal damage significantly
  impacts on probability of repurchase




                  X X X
Maturity : DM v
  Likelihood of Purchase




• 22% - 28% Competitive advantage
What we know consumers want
 and will alter purchasing for

• They want fruit they can eat tonight
• They want unblemished fruit – no more
  than 10% damage
• They want mature fruit – above 22%


What do we give them?
Retail Quality Surveys
• Began in October 2007
   – 16 stores in each Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne & Perth
   – Monthly


• Information collected
   –   Price
   –   Display details
   –   Size
   –   Weight
   –   Sticker Information
   –   Internal quality
Key findings for 07/08
• More than half fruit colour level 3 or
  below
  –   NSW 51% of stores
  –   Qld 40% of stores
  –   WA 30% of stores
  –   Vic 5% of stores
      1      2     3      4   5   6
Key findings for 07/08
Incidences of internal defects had a significant
association with sampling month, state and store
type of purchase

                                          Total Damage by month

    80                                      damage > 10%       some damage

    70
    60
    50

    40
    30
    20

    10
     0
         Oct-07   Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08   Feb-08 Mar-08   Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08   Jul-08   Aug-08 Sep-08
Total Damage by State
               Total Damage by state

80         >10%            some damage

70

60

50

40
30

20

10
0
     N            Q                    V   W




         Around 29% in all states
Total damage by store of purchase
                          Total Damage above 10%
           Store type 1    Store type 2   Store type 3    Store type 4
    45
    40
    35
    30
    25
%




    20
    15
    10
    5
    0
         NSW                  Qld                   Vic                                                 WA




                                                                                                               Damage above 10% by store (Sydney)

                                                          Proportion above 10% damage
                                                                                        60

                                                                                        50

                                                                                        40

                                                                                        30

                                                                                        20

                                                                                        10

                                                                                        0
                                                                                             01

                                                                                                   02

                                                                                                         03

                                                                                                               04

                                                                                                                     05

                                                                                                                           06

                                                                                                                                 07

                                                                                                                                       08

                                                                                                                                             09

                                                                                                                                                     10

                                                                                                                                                           11

                                                                                                                                                                 12

                                                                                                                                                                       13

                                                                                                                                                                             14

                                                                                                                                                                                   15

                                                                                                                                                                                         16
                                                                                        ns

                                                                                                  ns

                                                                                                        ns

                                                                                                              ns

                                                                                                                    ns

                                                                                                                          ns

                                                                                                                                ns

                                                                                                                                      ns

                                                                                                                                            ns

                                                                                                                                                  ns

                                                                                                                                                          ns

                                                                                                                                                                ns

                                                                                                                                                                      ns

                                                                                                                                                                            ns

                                                                                                                                                                                  ns

                                                                                                                                                                                        ns
                                                                                                                                            stores
Key findings for 07/08
                                     Proportion of fruit with specific damage bove 10% damage

                     14

                     12
% above 10% damage




                     10

                     8        1
                     6

                     4

                     2

                     0
                          Body Rot          Bruising    Diffuse Flesh    Other      Stem end rot       Vascular




                              Bruising most common defect
                                                                                 Proportion of damage above 10% - by State

                                               25           Body Rot        Bruising        Diffuse Flesh         Other   Stem end rot   Vascular


                                               20


                                               15


                                               10


                                                 5


                                                 0
                                                                   N                               Q                      V                   W
Key findings for 07/08
                                                          NSW probability of repurchase
                                          Probability of Purchase (%)                                 Prob for Perfect fruit (%)     Average Price($)
                               90                                                                                                                       3
                               80
 probability of purchase (%)




                                                                                                                                                        2.5
                               70   12%                                                                                               9%
                                                                                                                                                                                      Cheaper fruit have higher




                                                                                                                                                              Price ($/pce fruit)
                               60
                                                          1.5%
                                                                                                             6%                                         2
                                                                                                                                                                                      predicted probability of
                               50
                               40
                                                                                                                                                        1.5                           purchase
                               30                                                                                                                       1
                               20
                                                                                                                                                        0.5
                               10
                               0                                                                                                                        0
                                     Coles                 Independents                                      Ind S'markets            Woolworths


                                                                                                                                        Qld probability of repurchase
Cheaper fruit also had
                                                                                                                       Probability of Purchase (%)      Prob for Perfect fruit (%)                  Average Price($)
larger estimated                                                                                      90                                                                                                               3

reduction in purchase                                                                                 80
                                                                        probability of purchase (%)




                                                                                                                                                                              10%                    6%                2.5
                                                                                                      70
prob due to defects                                                                                            10%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Price ($/pce fruit)
                                                                                                      60                                                                                                               2
                                                                                                                                        7%
                                                                                                      50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1.5
                                                                                                      40
                                                                                                      30                                                                                                               1
                                                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0.5
                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                      0                                                                                                                0
                                                                                                                    Coles               Independents                                Ind S'markets   Woolworths
Vic probability of repurchase
                                          Probability of Purchase (%)                              Prob for Perfect fruit (%)        Average Price($)
                              90                                                                                                                             3
                              80
probability of purchase (%)


                                                                                                                                                             2.5
                              70
                                   8%                                                                    7%                          7%




                                                                                                                                                                   Price ($/pce fruit)
                              60                                                   5%                                                                        2
                              50
                                                                                                                                                             1.5
                              40
                              30                                                                                                                             1
                              20
                                                                                                                                                             0.5
                              10
                              0                                                                                                                              0
                                        Coles                                      Independents           Ind S'markets               Woolworths


                                                                                                           WA probability of repurchase
                                                                                          Probability of Purchase (%)           Prob for Perfect fruit (%)                          Average Price($)
                                                                              90                                                                                                                       3
                                                                              80
                                                probability of purchase (%)




                                                                                                                                                                                                       2.5
                                                                              70                                                                                              10%




                                                                                                                                                                                                             Price ($/pce fruit)
                                                                              60
                                                                                   9%                                                                                                                  2
                                                                              50                          2.5%                          5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                       1.5
                                                                              40
                                                                              30                                                                                                                       1
                                                                              20
                                                                                                                                                                                                       0.5
                                                                              10
                                                                              0                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                        Coles              Independents                Ind S'markets                                     Woolworths
Maturity
                                            Average DM content - North Queensland (Hass)
                                                  2008              2009                DM Standard
                         44
                         42
                         40
                         38
                         36
Dry Matter Content (%)




                         34
                         32
                         30
                         28
                         26
                         24
                         22
                         20
                         18
                         16
                         14
                         12
                         10
                          1-Jan   1-Feb   3-Mar     3-Apr   4-May   4-Jun   5-Jul   5-Aug   5-Sep                          6-Oct   6-Nov    7-Dec



                                                                                                                                           Average DM content - Central Queensland (Hass)
                                                                                                                                                    2008            2009            DM Standard
                                                                                                                      42
                                                                                                                      40
                                                                                                                      38
                                                                                                                      36
                                                                                                                      34
                                                                                             Dry Matter Content (%)




                                                                                                                      32
                                                                                                                      30
                                                                                                                      28
                                                                                                                      26
                                                                                                                      24
                                                                                                                      22
                                                                                                                      20
                                                                                                                      18
                                                                                                                      16
                                                                                                                      14
                                                                                                                      12
                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                       1-Jan   1-Feb   3-Mar   3-Apr       4-May   4-Jun   5-Jul   5-Aug   5-Sep   6-Oct   6-Nov   7-Dec
Average DM content - Sunshine Coast (Hass)
                                                   2008             2009                                      DM Standard

                         44
                         42
                         40
                         38
                         36
Dry Matter Content (%)




                         34
                         32
                         30
                         28
                         26
                         24
                         22
                         20
                         18
                         16
                         14
                         12
                         10
                          1-Jan   1-Feb   3-Mar     3-Apr   4-May   4-Jun   5-Jul                        5-Aug     5-Sep    6-Oct   6-Nov    7-Dec



                                                                                                                                    Average DM content - South Qld (Hass)
                                                                                                                                     2008             2009            DM Standard

                                                                                                         46
                                                                                                         44
                                                                                                         42
                                                                                                         40
                                                                                                         38
                                                                                                         36
                                                                                Dry Matter Content (%)




                                                                                                         34
                                                                                                         32
                                                                                                         30
                                                                                                         28
                                                                                                         26
                                                                                                         24
                                                                                                         22
                                                                                                         20
                                                                                                         18
                                                                                                         16
                                                                                                         14
                                                                                                         12
                                                                                                         10
                                                                                                          1-Jan    1-Feb    3-Mar    3-Apr   4-May   4-Jun   5-Jul   5-Aug   5-Sep   6-Oct   6-Nov   7-Dec
Average DM content - Northern NSW (Hass)
                                                    2008            2009                                      DM Standard
                         48
                         46
                         44
                         42
                         40
                         38
Dry Matter Content (%)




                         36
                         34
                         32
                         30
                         28
                         26
                         24
                         22
                         20
                         18
                         16
                         14
                         12
                         10
                          1-Jan   1-Feb   3-Mar    3-Apr   4-May   4-Jun   5-Jul                            5-Aug    5-Sep     6-Oct   6-Nov     7-Dec



                                                                                                                                         Average DM content - Central NSW (Hass)
                                                                                                                                               2008            2009            DM Standard

                                                                                                            46
                                                                                                            44
                                                                                                            42
                                                                                                            40
                                                                                                            38
                                                                                                            36
                                                                                   Dry Matter Content (%)




                                                                                                            34
                                                                                                            32
                                                                                                            30
                                                                                                            28
                                                                                                            26
                                                                                                            24
                                                                                                            22
                                                                                                            20
                                                                                                            18
                                                                                                            16
                                                                                                            14
                                                                                                            12
                                                                                                            10
                                                                                                             1-Jan     1-Feb     3-Mar    3-Apr       4-May   4-Jun   5-Jul   5-Aug   5-Sep   6-Oct   6-Nov   7-Dec
Average DM content - Tristate (Hass)
                                                    2008             2009                                     DM Standard
                         42
                         40
                         38
                         36
                         34
Dry Matter Content (%)




                         32
                         30
                         28
                         26
                         24
                         22
                         20
                         18
                         16
                         14
                         12
                         10
                          1-Jan   1-Feb   3-Mar   3-Apr    4-May   4-Jun    5-Jul                    5-Aug            5-Sep     6-Oct     6-Nov     7-Dec




                                                                                                                                                   Average DM content - WA (Hass)
                                                                                                                                                  2008              2009               DM Standard
                                                                                                             38
                                                                                                             36
                                                                                                             34
                                                                                                             32
                                                                                    Dry Matter Content (%)




                                                                                                             30
                                                                                                             28
                                                                                                             26
                                                                                                             24
                                                                                                             22
                                                                                                             20
                                                                                                             18
                                                                                                             16
                                                                                                             14
                                                                                                             12
                                                                                                             10
                                                                                                              1-Jan     1-Feb     3-Mar     3-Apr        4-May   4-Jun     5-Jul   5-Aug   5-Sep   6-Oct   6-Nov   7-Dec
Where to from here?
• Working with supply chain partners to
  make improvements
• Working back from retailers who have
  consistently over time sold high quality
  fruit to assist in producing education
  materials
• Producing a series of education
  materials
• Continued quality surveys for monitoring
  and to measure improvements
Proportion of Hass with internal damage above 10%
                                     Sydney
           Coles          Independents               Independent supermarkets                         Woolworths
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%




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                                                                                  Proportion of Hass with internal damage above 10%
                                                                                                      Brisbane
                                                                                  Coles         Independents            Independent supermarkets            Woolworths
                                                                    80%
                                                                    70%
                                                                    60%
                                                                    50%
                                                                    40%
                                                                    30%
                                                                    20%
                                                                    10%
                                                                     0%
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Proportion of Hass with internal damage above 10%
                                   Melbourne
                   Coles       Independents         Independent supermarkets        Woolworths


80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%




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                                                                 M             Proportion of Hass with internal damage above 10%
                                                                                                      Perth
                                                                                  Coles            Indpendents   Independent supermarkets      Woolworths
                                                                 80%
                                                                 70%
                                                                 60%
                                                                 50%
                                                                 40%
                                                                 30%
                                                                 20%
                                                                 10%
                                                                 0%
                                                                          Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun-                      Jul-   Aug- Sep-
                                                                           08   08   08   09   09   09   09   09   09                       09      09   09
Thank you

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Joanna Embry

  • 1. Avocado Retail Quality Surveys Joanna Embry Avocados Australia
  • 2. Presentation Overview • Why conduct quality surveys • What quality parameters to survey – Consumer sensory testing – Online survey • Results to date • Where to from here
  • 3. Consumer sensory panels and online surveys • Ripeness – level of ripeness (firmness) preferred by consumers • Internal flesh quality – maximum acceptable level of internal defects at different price points above which future consumer purchasing decisions are negatively influenced • Maturity – minimum maturity (measured by DM%) that produces Hass avocados of acceptable eating quality
  • 4. Ripeness C: Purchase intent for different ripeness levels • 85% of consumers have a preference to purchase avocados that are ready to eat/use immediately • Consumers prefer soft ripe and medium ripe avocados • Consumers select for ripeness on colour then squeezing
  • 5. Internal Quality • Severity of defect was of primary importance followed by price • At all prices an incidence of more than 10% internal damage significantly impacts on probability of repurchase X X X
  • 6. Maturity : DM v Likelihood of Purchase • 22% - 28% Competitive advantage
  • 7. What we know consumers want and will alter purchasing for • They want fruit they can eat tonight • They want unblemished fruit – no more than 10% damage • They want mature fruit – above 22% What do we give them?
  • 8. Retail Quality Surveys • Began in October 2007 – 16 stores in each Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne & Perth – Monthly • Information collected – Price – Display details – Size – Weight – Sticker Information – Internal quality
  • 9. Key findings for 07/08 • More than half fruit colour level 3 or below – NSW 51% of stores – Qld 40% of stores – WA 30% of stores – Vic 5% of stores 1 2 3 4 5 6
  • 10. Key findings for 07/08 Incidences of internal defects had a significant association with sampling month, state and store type of purchase Total Damage by month 80 damage > 10% some damage 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
  • 11. Total Damage by State Total Damage by state 80 >10% some damage 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 N Q V W Around 29% in all states
  • 12. Total damage by store of purchase Total Damage above 10% Store type 1 Store type 2 Store type 3 Store type 4 45 40 35 30 25 % 20 15 10 5 0 NSW Qld Vic WA Damage above 10% by store (Sydney) Proportion above 10% damage 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns stores
  • 13. Key findings for 07/08 Proportion of fruit with specific damage bove 10% damage 14 12 % above 10% damage 10 8 1 6 4 2 0 Body Rot Bruising Diffuse Flesh Other Stem end rot Vascular Bruising most common defect Proportion of damage above 10% - by State 25 Body Rot Bruising Diffuse Flesh Other Stem end rot Vascular 20 15 10 5 0 N Q V W
  • 14. Key findings for 07/08 NSW probability of repurchase Probability of Purchase (%) Prob for Perfect fruit (%) Average Price($) 90 3 80 probability of purchase (%) 2.5 70 12% 9% Cheaper fruit have higher Price ($/pce fruit) 60 1.5% 6% 2 predicted probability of 50 40 1.5 purchase 30 1 20 0.5 10 0 0 Coles Independents Ind S'markets Woolworths Qld probability of repurchase Cheaper fruit also had Probability of Purchase (%) Prob for Perfect fruit (%) Average Price($) larger estimated 90 3 reduction in purchase 80 probability of purchase (%) 10% 6% 2.5 70 prob due to defects 10% Price ($/pce fruit) 60 2 7% 50 1.5 40 30 1 20 0.5 10 0 0 Coles Independents Ind S'markets Woolworths
  • 15. Vic probability of repurchase Probability of Purchase (%) Prob for Perfect fruit (%) Average Price($) 90 3 80 probability of purchase (%) 2.5 70 8% 7% 7% Price ($/pce fruit) 60 5% 2 50 1.5 40 30 1 20 0.5 10 0 0 Coles Independents Ind S'markets Woolworths WA probability of repurchase Probability of Purchase (%) Prob for Perfect fruit (%) Average Price($) 90 3 80 probability of purchase (%) 2.5 70 10% Price ($/pce fruit) 60 9% 2 50 2.5% 5% 1.5 40 30 1 20 0.5 10 0 0 Coles Independents Ind S'markets Woolworths
  • 16. Maturity Average DM content - North Queensland (Hass) 2008 2009 DM Standard 44 42 40 38 36 Dry Matter Content (%) 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1-Jan 1-Feb 3-Mar 3-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 5-Jul 5-Aug 5-Sep 6-Oct 6-Nov 7-Dec Average DM content - Central Queensland (Hass) 2008 2009 DM Standard 42 40 38 36 34 Dry Matter Content (%) 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1-Jan 1-Feb 3-Mar 3-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 5-Jul 5-Aug 5-Sep 6-Oct 6-Nov 7-Dec
  • 17. Average DM content - Sunshine Coast (Hass) 2008 2009 DM Standard 44 42 40 38 36 Dry Matter Content (%) 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1-Jan 1-Feb 3-Mar 3-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 5-Jul 5-Aug 5-Sep 6-Oct 6-Nov 7-Dec Average DM content - South Qld (Hass) 2008 2009 DM Standard 46 44 42 40 38 36 Dry Matter Content (%) 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1-Jan 1-Feb 3-Mar 3-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 5-Jul 5-Aug 5-Sep 6-Oct 6-Nov 7-Dec
  • 18. Average DM content - Northern NSW (Hass) 2008 2009 DM Standard 48 46 44 42 40 38 Dry Matter Content (%) 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1-Jan 1-Feb 3-Mar 3-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 5-Jul 5-Aug 5-Sep 6-Oct 6-Nov 7-Dec Average DM content - Central NSW (Hass) 2008 2009 DM Standard 46 44 42 40 38 36 Dry Matter Content (%) 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1-Jan 1-Feb 3-Mar 3-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 5-Jul 5-Aug 5-Sep 6-Oct 6-Nov 7-Dec
  • 19. Average DM content - Tristate (Hass) 2008 2009 DM Standard 42 40 38 36 34 Dry Matter Content (%) 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1-Jan 1-Feb 3-Mar 3-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 5-Jul 5-Aug 5-Sep 6-Oct 6-Nov 7-Dec Average DM content - WA (Hass) 2008 2009 DM Standard 38 36 34 32 Dry Matter Content (%) 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1-Jan 1-Feb 3-Mar 3-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 5-Jul 5-Aug 5-Sep 6-Oct 6-Nov 7-Dec
  • 20. Where to from here? • Working with supply chain partners to make improvements • Working back from retailers who have consistently over time sold high quality fruit to assist in producing education materials • Producing a series of education materials • Continued quality surveys for monitoring and to measure improvements
  • 21. Proportion of Hass with internal damage above 10% Sydney Coles Independents Independent supermarkets Woolworths 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 09 9 09 09 8 8 09 09 09 08 09 9 l-0 -0 -0 r -0 p- - n- n- b- - g- ct- ov ec ay ar Ju Ja Ju Fe Ap Se Au O M N D M Proportion of Hass with internal damage above 10% Brisbane Coles Independents Independent supermarkets Woolworths 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 09 09 09 9 8 8 09 09 09 8 09 09 l- 0 -0 -0 -0 p- n- - n- b- - g- r- ov ec ay ct ar Ju Ja Ju Fe Ap Se Au O M M N D
  • 22. Proportion of Hass with internal damage above 10% Melbourne Coles Independents Independent supermarkets Woolworths 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9 09 09 09 8 08 9 9 9 8 9 9 l-0 -0 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 c- - n- n- b- ov p ay ar ct Ju g r De Ja Ju Fe Ap Se Au O M N M Proportion of Hass with internal damage above 10% Perth Coles Indpendents Independent supermarkets Woolworths 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09