This document discusses using simulation techniques to estimate education costs and budgets. It provides examples of how simulation models can be used to: 1. Estimate needs for personnel, school buildings, teaching materials, and other resources over multiple years based on student enrollment projections and policy parameters. 2. Help formulate education policies and compare scenarios by examining implications of different options. 3. Contribute to medium-term action planning by forecasting the pedagogical, physical, and financial implications of education objectives. 4. Facilitate setting multi-year budgets by specifying new achievements and costs, and programming recurrent and capital expenditures.

1. UNIVERSITY OF THE ARMED FORCES-ESPE
AT A DISTANCE EDUCATION MODE
ESTIMATION OF COSTS
SARA ABIGAIL SALAZAR LOOR
LCDO. MIGUEL VINICIOPONCE MEDINA, PHD.
2017-2018

2. ESTIMATION OF COSTS
5.1. Costs/resources at the activity level
Logical
Framework
Approach
Activity level
indicators &
Means of
verification
Inputs & budgets are
required to implement

3. Indicators Costs
EXAMPLE:

4. Activities are usually
broken down
according to who is
responsible for
implementation.
ACTIVITIES RESPONSIBLE MONITORE
Progress can be
monitored against the
associated resources,
budget and the
schedule.
There should be in
principle as many
activities as there are
responsible units in
order to increase their
accountability in the
execution of their
activity.

5. • ACCOUNTING
REGULATIONS
• PRACTICES IN
PLACE
CLASSIFICATION
OF FINANCIAL
RESOURCES
should follow
in the concerned
countries or
institutions.

6. Budget items are classified by nature of
expenditure.
EXAMPLE: UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM
• It is used when is preparing and
implementing a development
project.
• There are also established norms
and standards in terms of unit
costs.
• Costs should be considered (or
referred to) when calculating the
budgetary requirements.
UNESCO’s Format

7. It is relatively easy if…
• Budgeting elements and criteria are
already in place.
BUT
THE BUDGETING OF AN
EDUCATION ACTION PLAN
• It is complex
• It involves making the projection of
several years’ expenditure.
• Different techniques, specific to each
country’s contexts, exist.
• Other techniques have recently emerged
like the mid-term expenditure framework
(MTEF) in some countries.
Budget table format in the
education sector
EXAMPLE:
Costing of the activities for a
specific programme or project

8. Credible multi-year projection of resources can be hardly estimated without a
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION MODEL.
They will be probable
The future of a system depends
on unforeseen hazards and
uncertainties
Impact on the evolution of
phenomena.
Simulation model
Tool
Help foresee the
probable evolution
of an education
system in the more
or less distant
future.
Results

9. Implementation
of the
development
programme
advances.
Simulation model
needs to update
The baseline data and the
hypotheses are inevitably
limited in number and
consequently can not take
into account all the
parameters, be they
identified or not, which
regulate the evolution of an
educational system.
Baseline data
Parameters

10. Purpose and use of the simulation techniques
• Design of policy options
• Formulation of an education development plan
• Evaluation of the required multiyear educational
expenditure.
SIMULATION TECHNIQUES

11. A. SIMULATION AS A TOOL FOR POLICY FORMULATION AND DIALOGUE
Policy simulations:
• Contribute to the formation of educational policies.
• Identify the implications of different policies put forward by the diversity of interests with a stake in education.
• Compare other socio-economic sectors
• Educational development involves difficult and multidimensionalproblems
• Several development scenarios are then designed and demonstrated.
• Stakeholders can discuss arguments in support of or against different policy objectives and options; they can
examine alternative scenarios, and evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each on the basis of
relatively reliable estimates.
B. ACTION PLANNING THROUGH COMPUTER SIMULATION
The simulation model:
• Contribute to the preparation of medium-term action plans.
• Forecasting tool: adoption of sector reform and/or development options.
• Determine the pedagogical, physical & financial implications of educational objectives for precise periods.
SIMULATION IN POLICY FORMULATION AND ACTION PLANNING

12. EXAMPLE: SIMULATION MODEL
Determine the nature
& scale of inputs per
year for the period
considered.
It provides indicative
information on school
enrolments, human,
physical & financial
means.
Present categories of
requirements in
educational
resources.
Evaluation is carried
out thanks to
computer simulation.

13. EXAMPLE: SIMULATION MODELS
Powerful tools for
generating performance
indicators
They provide these in the
form of quantified
indicators relating to the
educational system’s
organization and operation.
These indicators are
provided per year for a
reasonably long period
according to the planned
programme, by region and
for all the levels of
education and training
which are examined in the
simulation.

14. • Simulation model
estimates of future needs
for these books and
indication of the
requirements for the
production and the
distribution of these
materials.
Personnel School buildings Teaching and
learning materials
• Estimate the number of
teaching and non-
teaching personnel
• Managerial and
supervisory staff,
administrative and
service personnel,
technical and
maintenance workers,
etc.
• Per year, per region, and
by education level
• Based on the number of
students and the parameters
of pedagogical management
• The simulation model has the
potential to evaluate the
number of buildings to build, in
a given time horizon.
• It also indicates the
expenditure necessary for the
purchase of necessary
equipment and maintenance
expenses of all kinds.

15. 5.2. Budgeting through simulation techniques
SIMULATION MODELLING
• Benefits from the medium term expenditure frameworks (MTEFs)
MTEF
• Ensure the consistency of the budgetary allocations with overall fiscal objectives and domestic
resources
• Improve the realism of sector budgets.
• It is important in many developing countries where a large gap between stated policies and actual
domestic resources often leads to ad hoc budget cuts in plan implementation.
MTEF budget & education simulation model
• Anticipate their use by budget category
• Order of priority
• Contribute to fine-tuning the sector expenditure framework in consistency with overall macro-
economic and fiscal perspectives.

16. Consider significant parameters
which have an impact on the
cost of education:
Inflation, salary increases and
the cost of educational goods
and services.
SIMULATION TECHNIQUES
Facilitate
setting up of
annual & multi-
annual budgets
Specify new anticipated
achievements and their costs
Facilitate the programming of
recurrent and capital
expenditure.
The formulation of
short-term
objectives – over
one or two years –
Estimates of national annual
expenditure are provided by
level of education and by
category of expenditure.
National authorities
Take into account the objectives
The potential for development of
each region
Take corrective measures

17. THANK YOU FOR
YOUR ATTENTION