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PEATLAND MANAGEMENT
IMPACTS ON
CARBON/CLIMATE
REGULATION - UK EVIDENCE,
SPATIAL CONFIGURATION OF
STOCKS AND PRESSURES
Fred Worrall,
Department of Earth Sciences,
Durham University
The approach I have taken to this problem

 UK evidence
   JNCC report – other reports are also available
   Meta-analysis – how much evidence do we have?
   Derivation of emissions factors
 Spatial configuration
   Spatial extent of peat soils – stocks
   Spatial extent of peat management/condition
 Ongoing developments
Spatial extent of peat soils
   Country     Peat type         sub-type         Area of peat
                                                  (km2)
   England     Deep peat         Total            6799a
                                 Lowland wasted   1922
                                 peatb
                                 Upland peat      3553
                                 Raised bog       357
                                 Lowland fen      958
                                 Other            9
               Shallow peats                      5272

               Soils      with                    2114
               scattered
               pockets      of
               deep peat
   Scotlandd   Total deep peat                    17269



   Wales       Deep peats                         706
               Total    peaty                     2809
               soils
   Northern    Deep peats                         1700c
                                                                 Worrall et al. (2011).
   Ireland
   UK          Intact      deep total             17125          JNCC Report 442
               peat
Spatial extent of peat soils
                     We have soil maps for
                     each part of UK
                     But for stocks assessment
                       level of detail can vary
                       Information on
                       depth/density/carbon
                       content is rare
                       Some specific studies of
                       certain areas (Exmoor,
                       North Pennines)
Spatial extent of peat management/condition

                       Burning




                                   Bare soil




 This level of spatial information is not available UK-wide.
Emissions factors
 Meta-analysis
   What is the probability that intervention will result in a
   GHG benefit?
   What is the equivalent number of studies do we have?
   Bayesian framework means that it is updatable
 Emission factors
   Default values – Couwenberg et al (2008) or Bryne et
   al. (2004)
   Values from UK field studies
   Values from computer modelling
Summary of JNCC meta-analysis
Management               Likely spatial   Probability of   Effective sample   Existing study site
                         extent           improvement      size (GHG)


Afforestation                     5                2                                  
Deforestation                     ?                                2                  
Drainage                                           3               4                  
Drain-blocking                    ?                                3                  
Grazing removal                   1                1                                  
Managed burning                   4                                                   
Revegetation                      2                4               5                  
Restoration of cutover                             5               1                  
peatland
Converted for                     3                ?               ?                  
agriculture
Emission factors from computer modelling

Management                  From modelling
                            (tonnes C ha yr -
                                                Only an example of
                            1)
                                                the information in the
Afforestation   Peat soil       +1.94a
                Above            -3.87          JNCC report
                ground
                biomassb                        This can include
Deforestation                      -            interactions between
Drainage      Average            -0.05
              Grazing            +0.1           managements
              present
              Grazing            -0.01
              not present
              Burning             +0.2
              present
              Burning not        -0.06
              present
Minimum input requirement approaches

 Run models with and
 without a management
 intervention
 Run models across the
 range of locations for
 which we have inputs
   Over 4000 model runs
 Use statistical
 approaches to find the
 important drivers
                                                                        2
               CTotal   0.087 A 1.7 f peat   210 f baresoil 138.5   r       96 %, n   474
Summary
 UK evidence
   We know the quality of our emissions factor data
   Our biggest source is lowland peat
 Spatial configuration
   Spatial extent of peat soils
     Good but lacks supporting data to give stocks value
   Spatial extent of peat management/conditions
     good enough in places
The Durham Carbon Model already includes …


                           Drains




                                         Gullies
Bare soil & revegetation




burning                                      Cutting
The Durham Carbon Model now includes …

Heather      Grasses




                                   Mosses




   Forest               Sedge
Modelling climate resilience
                                                 1
       Relative sink size compared to present
                                                0.9

                                                0.8

                                                0.7

                                                0.6

                                                0.5

                                                0.4

                                                0.3

                                                0.2

                                                0.1

                                                 0
                                                      No action   Block all   Revegetate Cease grazing Cease burning Targeted best
                                                                   drains                                            possible action


 Which interventions now would provide the most protection in the
 future?
 Projecting management interventions into the future under climate
 change scenarios.
 We could correct Efs for climate change
New Defra project – GHG emissions from lowland peat


  New large scale project
  measuing emissions from a
  range of lowland sites
  under a range of
  managements
  Managements include –
  fens, arable, dugover/bare
  peat, restored, pasture
  4 major sites with several
  secondary sites

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Peatland management impacts on carbon/climate regulation - UK evidence, spatial configuration of stocks and pressures

  • 1. PEATLAND MANAGEMENT IMPACTS ON CARBON/CLIMATE REGULATION - UK EVIDENCE, SPATIAL CONFIGURATION OF STOCKS AND PRESSURES Fred Worrall, Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University
  • 2. The approach I have taken to this problem UK evidence JNCC report – other reports are also available Meta-analysis – how much evidence do we have? Derivation of emissions factors Spatial configuration Spatial extent of peat soils – stocks Spatial extent of peat management/condition Ongoing developments
  • 3. Spatial extent of peat soils Country Peat type sub-type Area of peat (km2) England Deep peat Total 6799a Lowland wasted 1922 peatb Upland peat 3553 Raised bog 357 Lowland fen 958 Other 9 Shallow peats 5272 Soils with 2114 scattered pockets of deep peat Scotlandd Total deep peat 17269 Wales Deep peats 706 Total peaty 2809 soils Northern Deep peats 1700c Worrall et al. (2011). Ireland UK Intact deep total 17125 JNCC Report 442 peat
  • 4. Spatial extent of peat soils We have soil maps for each part of UK But for stocks assessment level of detail can vary Information on depth/density/carbon content is rare Some specific studies of certain areas (Exmoor, North Pennines)
  • 5. Spatial extent of peat management/condition Burning Bare soil This level of spatial information is not available UK-wide.
  • 6. Emissions factors Meta-analysis What is the probability that intervention will result in a GHG benefit? What is the equivalent number of studies do we have? Bayesian framework means that it is updatable Emission factors Default values – Couwenberg et al (2008) or Bryne et al. (2004) Values from UK field studies Values from computer modelling
  • 7. Summary of JNCC meta-analysis Management Likely spatial Probability of Effective sample Existing study site extent improvement size (GHG) Afforestation 5 2  Deforestation ? 2  Drainage 3 4  Drain-blocking ? 3  Grazing removal 1 1  Managed burning 4  Revegetation 2 4 5  Restoration of cutover 5 1  peatland Converted for 3 ? ?  agriculture
  • 8. Emission factors from computer modelling Management From modelling (tonnes C ha yr - Only an example of 1) the information in the Afforestation Peat soil +1.94a Above -3.87 JNCC report ground biomassb This can include Deforestation - interactions between Drainage Average -0.05 Grazing +0.1 managements present Grazing -0.01 not present Burning +0.2 present Burning not -0.06 present
  • 9. Minimum input requirement approaches Run models with and without a management intervention Run models across the range of locations for which we have inputs Over 4000 model runs Use statistical approaches to find the important drivers 2 CTotal 0.087 A 1.7 f peat 210 f baresoil 138.5 r 96 %, n 474
  • 10. Summary UK evidence We know the quality of our emissions factor data Our biggest source is lowland peat Spatial configuration Spatial extent of peat soils Good but lacks supporting data to give stocks value Spatial extent of peat management/conditions good enough in places
  • 11. The Durham Carbon Model already includes … Drains Gullies Bare soil & revegetation burning Cutting
  • 12. The Durham Carbon Model now includes … Heather Grasses Mosses Forest Sedge
  • 13. Modelling climate resilience 1 Relative sink size compared to present 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 No action Block all Revegetate Cease grazing Cease burning Targeted best drains possible action Which interventions now would provide the most protection in the future? Projecting management interventions into the future under climate change scenarios. We could correct Efs for climate change
  • 14. New Defra project – GHG emissions from lowland peat New large scale project measuing emissions from a range of lowland sites under a range of managements Managements include – fens, arable, dugover/bare peat, restored, pasture 4 major sites with several secondary sites