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Session 2-1-fahmuddin-agus-reducing-ghg-emissions-from-land-use-change-for-oil-palm-development-1465

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Fahmuddin Agus discusses GHG emissions from land use change for Palm oil

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Session 2-1-fahmuddin-agus-reducing-ghg-emissions-from-land-use-change-for-oil-palm-development-1465

  1. 1. Reducing green house gas emissions from land use changes for oil palm development (Literature Study in Progress) Fahmuddin Agus1, Petrus Gunarso2, Bambang H. Saharjo3, Abdul Rashid4, K.T. Joseph5, Nancy Harris6, and Meine van Noordwijk7 1Indonesian Soil Research Institute, Bogor, Indonesia, 2Tropenbos Indonesia, 3Bogor AgriculturalUniversity/Sawit Watch, Bogor, Indonesia , 4Forest Research Institute Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, 5University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 6Winrock International, Little Rock, USA, 7World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya To be Presentaed at “Sustainable palm oil: challenges, a common vision and the way forward” symposium, 5-6 May 2011, London
  2. 2. Why do we do this? Perception that oil palm expansion replaces forest and thus the main source of GHG emission Voluntary GHG emission reduction among RSPO members
  3. 3. Objectives Analyze land use change in OP producing countries Estimate of the rate of emissions Recommend emission reduction scenarios
  4. 4. 10 largest oil palm producers http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=palm- oil&graph=production Annual CPO No Country Production (t)1. Indonesia 20,750.002. Malaysia 18,500.003. Thailand 1,300.004. Nigeria 820.005. Colombia 800.006. Papua New Guinea 440.007. Ecuador 340.008. Côte Divoire 320.009. Costa Rica 285.0010. Congo 175.00
  5. 5. Coverage of the study LU/LC spatial C stocks analysis -Plant Biomass -Necromass -SoilGovt. Policy LUC matrix EF, RFMarket pulls C fluxes - Soil - Burning Projected LUC Historical and predicted emission under BAU Mitigation Legal system scenarios Emission reduction scenarios
  6. 6. Processes entailed in forest conversion (1) Change in time average C stock 0~250 t C/ha 30-50 t C/ha CH4 & N2O? (3) Peat (soil) burning Peat subsidenc e (peat) 60 cm300-800 t C/m/ha inpeat soil15-200 t C/ha in (2) Soil C oxidationsurface of mineralsoil
  7. 7. C budgetΔC= Σij Aij [ΔCijLB + ΔCijDOM + ΔCijSOILS] / Tij ΔC = net C stock change [ton C/yr] Aij = Area under land use i that changes to j [ha] ΔCijLB = change in C stock in the living biomass of land use i that changes into land use j, [ton C/ha] ΔCijDOM = change in C stock in dead plant [ton C/ha] ΔCijSOILS = change in soil C stock [ton C/ha] Tij = time scale
  8. 8. 1. Above ground C stock Forest Plantn, scrub Grass, agric
  9. 9. 2. Peat soil C oxidationCO2-e = Area * 0.7 * 0.9 t CO2/ha/yr * cm drainage(Hooijer et al., 2010, corrected for root-related respiration based onHandayani 2010)
  10. 10. 3. Emission from mineral soilEmision = Area * ΔC * 44/12Initial LU Successive LU RemarksForest PlantationLogged Oil palm 32% and 15% C increase in 0-45 cm, in 1stforest and 2nd cycle under intesnsive OM mngmt (Mathews et al., 2010)Forest Long term 30% soil C decrease (Murty et al. 2002) from cultivation 120±60 t/ha (IPCC, 2006)Forest ‘Degraded’ land 50% decreaseForest No tillage 0-10% increase w/ crop residues are retained.Degraded Plantation 30% increase (Germer and Sauerborn,land 2008)
  11. 11. Emission from burningAbove ground: Under forest: Partial emission of plant biomass Under clear felling: Speed up biomass oxidation, but AG biomass also oxidized in various ways within 2 years.Below ground Peatland area burning ≠ peat burning If peat is burned, then ∆C= Vol. of burned peat [m3] * BD [t m-3] * Corg [t t-1] *3.67 but high uncertainty in prediction.
  12. 12. Estimated Emission from AG peat burning in Riau 2005 (in CO2-e/ha) LAND COVER CO2 NOx CH4 DISTURBED FOREST - - - UNDISTURBED SWAMP FOREST - - - TIMBER PLANTATION 0.0 0.00 0.00 SCHRUB 8.8 0.04 0.09 RUBBER PLANTATION 3.2 0.01 0.03 BARELAND 0.9 0.00 0.01 DISTURBED MANGROVE 0.4 0.00 0.00 DISTURBED SWAMP FOREST 4.4 0.02 0.05 SWAMP SCHRUB 3.2 0.01 0.03 DRY CULTIVATION LAND 2.5 0.01 0.03 MIXED TREE CROPS 3.3 0.02 0.03 RICE FIELD 2.2 0.01 0.02 OIL PALM PLANTATION 1.4 0.01 0.01No data for peat (BG) fire, not included in current national level analysis
  13. 13. Emission/removal factorsLand cover Time avg AG Peat Wtr table Peat Mineral Soil C C (t/ha) (cm) emission(t stock 0-30cm CO2/ha/yr) (t/ha)UNDISTURBED FOREST 230 0 0 120DISTURBED FOREST 203 0 0 80UNDISTURBED SWAMPFOREST 196 0 0 xUNDISTURBED MANGROVE 170 0 0 xDISTURBED SWAMP FOREST 155 30 16 xDISTURBED MANGROVE 120 0 0 xSMALLHOLDER RUBBER 46 50 27 80OIL PALM PLANTATION 40 60 33 80TIMBER PLANTATION 37.5 50 27 80MIXED TREE CROPS 30 50 27 80SCHRUB 30 0 0 40SWAMP SCHRUB 30 30 16 xDRY CULTIVATION LAND 10 30 16 40SETTLEMENTS 5 70 38 40GRASS 4.2 0 0 40SWAMP GRASS 2 30 16 xRICE FIELD 2 10 5 x
  14. 14. Area (Million ha) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 OIL PALM 1990 UNDIST FOREST DIST FOREST UNDIST SWAMP … UNDIST … DIST SWAMP … Forest, 32%DIST MANGROVE RUBBER TIMBER … TIMBER … SCHRUBSWAMP SCHRUBANNUAL UPLAND GRASS Non-forest, 68% SWAMP GRASS RICE FIELD BARELAND Peatland OTHERS Non-peatland Land use change to OP from 1990-2009
  15. 15. Land use change in Malaysia (million ha) Land Use 1990 2000 2005 2007Permanent 12.6 14.4 14.4 14.3Reserve ForestTotally 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.95Protected AreasState land 6.8 4.64 4.14 3.42Total forest 20.54 20.16 19.93 19.66Rubber 1.84 1.43 1.23 1.21Oil palm 2.03 3.38 4.05 4.44Cocoa 0.4 0.08 0.033 0.027Source: FRA 2010, MPOB, MCB
  16. 16. Oil Palm Oil Palm Papua New GuineaGoogle earth image of early 2000s Landsat TM 1990 Estimated total oil palm area in early 2000: 64,335 ha
  17. 17. Emission estimate• Above ground and soil oxidation only (peat fire is not included yet)• This interim calculation assumes same emission factors for the three islands
  18. 18. Interim conclusions Oil palm plantation is growing rapidly in Indonesia and Malaysia in response to increasing market demands. Most of the land converted into oil palm were those of relatively low C stock scrub, and agricultural lands. Forest areas that were converted are mostly disturbed forest under “APL” Average annual emission depends on land use change trajectories. Emission is low during the period that involves conversions of low C stock lands and vise versa. Therefore, emission can be reduced by prioritizing the use of low C stock land.

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