What will happen if the usa withdraws from afghanistan- a 2010 assessment

1. WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE USA
WITHDRAWS FROM AFGHANISTAN
A HYPOTHETICAL STUDY
By
Major Agha H Amin (Retired)
06 November 2010
POSSIBILITY ALPHA
1. The US/NATO/CIS/International Community
retain a buffer peace keeping zone in Kabul
Torkham Corridor.
2. This would act as a damper for Taliban and
enable US/NATO/International forces to act as a
strategic fire brigade in case of any major upset in
Afghanistan.
3. A Russian/CIS force acts as peace keeping force
in North Afghanistan in cooperation with Northern
Alliance which enjoys support of majority of North
Afghanistan population.
4. An Iranian peace keeping force in west
Afghanistan.
5. A most balanced and rational solution
6.The only weak link is will the Taliban respect the
arrangement ? No because they only fear Allah and

2. have some respect for the B 52 !
POSIBILITY BRAVO
1. US Withdrawal while retaining the Kabul
Torkham Corridor and a free for all international
intervention.
2. The US/NATO lets the events take their own

3. course with no formal agreement with regional
parties.
3. India escalates against Pakistan to reduce
pressure on Northern Alliance.
POSSIBILITY CHARLIE
1. THE US/NATO WITHDRAW TOTALLY NOT
RETAINING ANY PRESENCE WHILE

4. RUSSIA/CIS/IRAN/INDIA INTERVENE.
2. TALIBAN WILL OCCUPY GREATER PART OF
AFGHANISTAN THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA OR
CHARLIE BUT CIVIL WAR CONTINUES.
3. INDIA ESCALATES AGAINST PAKISTAN TO
SUPPORT NORTHERN ALLIANCE .
POSSIBILITY DELTA

5. 1. THE US/NATO TOTALLY WITHDRAWS WHILE
ONLY RUSSIA/CIS/INDIA INTERVENE.
2. TALIBAN OCCUPY GREATER AREA THAN
POSSIBILITY ALPHA BRAVO AND CHARLIE BUT
THE CIVIL WAR CONTINUES.
3. INDIA PAKISTAN CONFLICT WILL ESCALATE AS
AN INDIAN RESPONSE TO REDRESS THE BALANCE
IN AFGHANISTAN BY ESCALATING AGAINST
PAKISTAN.
4. A CONVENTIONAL INDO PAK WAR STARTS
INVOLVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

11. A BROAD VIEW OF STRATEGIC OPERATIONAL
AND TACTICAL POSSIBILITIES

12. Major Agha H Amin (Retired)
24/10/10
This brief paper is a hypothetical visualization
of various strategic,operational and tactical
possibilities in the Af Pak Region .
Broad Strategic Scenario
BROAD ORIENTATION OF TALIBAN GROUPS

13. A MORE DETAILED DIVISION OF TALIBAN
AND US POSSIBLE STRATEGY
US Strategy appears to be neutralization and
annihilation of the more radical Haqqani
Company for strategic operational and face
saving and a possible compromise with the
less radical Mulla Omar and Hikmatyar
Companies.
Another major objective is to drive a wedge
in between Pakistani state and Haqqani and
Company by focing Pakistan to take military
action against Haqqani.

14. General Hameed Gul in various interviews
recently has presented a twin power failure
theory spread over 2 to five years :---
1. Failure and withdrawal of US from
Afghanistan.
2. Islamists concentrate on Kashmir together
with Chinese assistance and Indian
withdrawal from Kashmir.
3. Maoists start a grand offensive with
Chinese and Pakistani support and India is
weakened and destabilized.
4. Islamists expand into Central Asia and
Middle East.
5. General Gul also warned Islamists against
any confrontation with China.
6. On the other hand US covert policy seems
to be to provoke a major Islamist
Insurrection in China which Gul says should
be avoided at all costs.

15. US Options
1. Withdraw from Afghanistan without any
major strategic denuclearizing of Pakistan
and avoid a nuclear conflict which is likely if
an attempt is made to denuclearize Pakistan
with Indian assistance.Will straight lead to
realization of Hameed Gul Theory.
2. There is a possibility that US unilateral
withdrawal can lead to another war of
interventions in Afghanistan with Russia and
Iran in the lead:--
3. Retain partial presence in Afghanistan and
partition it .A least risk and pragmatic
approach strategically balanced and entirely
feasible.

16. 4. Launch an attack in Iran and expand the
war . May be beyond US potential if not
materially then at least in terms of
resolution.A US state department official
Doug Scherer termed US leadership as
irresolute in case of Iran.
5. Denuclearise Pakistan , Balkanise the
region , keep a permanent force in Af Pak .A
dangerous possibility which can lead to a
major conflict possibly nuclear with China
stepping in.