This document provides a hypothetical analysis of strategic, operational, and tactical possibilities in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region as of October 2010. It outlines the US strategy of neutralizing more radical Taliban groups like the Haqqani network while seeking a compromise with less radical groups. The document also discusses General Hameed Gul's theory that US withdrawal from Afghanistan could lead to Islamist focus on Kashmir with Chinese support and a weakening of India through Maoist uprisings. It presents several options for the US including unilateral withdrawal, retaining a partial presence, or attempting to denuclearize Pakistan at the risk of greater conflict.

1. AN OCTOBER 2010 AFGHAN ASSESSMENT
STILL VALID AND INTACT
INITIALLY PUBLISHED IN ALEXANDRIAN
DEFENSE CHRONICLES IN OCTOBER 2010
http://www.counterinsurgency.com/public/t
actical.pdf

6. A BROAD VIEW OF STRATEGIC OPERATIONAL AND
TACTICAL POSSIBILITIES

7. Major Agha H Amin (Retired)
24/10/10
This brief paper is a hypothetical visualization of
various strategic,operational and tactical possibilities
in the Af Pak Region .
Broad Strategic Scenario

8. BROAD ORIENTATION OF TALIBAN GROUPS
A MORE DETAILED DIVISION OF TALIBAN AND US
POSSIBLE STRATEGY
US Strategy appears to be neutralization and
annihilation of the more radical Haqqani Company for

9. strategic operational and face saving and a possible
compromise with the less radical Mulla Omar and
Hikmatyar Companies.
Another major objective is to drive a wedge in
between Pakistani state and Haqqani and Company by
focing Pakistan to take military action against
Haqqani.
General Hameed Gul in various interviews recently
has presented a twin power failure theory spread over
2 to five years :---
1. Failure and withdrawal of US from Afghanistan.
2. Islamists concentrate on Kashmir together with
Chinese assistance and Indian withdrawal from
Kashmir.

10. 3. Maoists start a grand offensive with Chinese and
Pakistani support and India is weakened and
destabilized.
4. Islamists expand into Central Asia and Middle East.
5. General Gul also warned Islamists against any
confrontation with China.
6. On the other hand US covert policy seems to be to
provoke a major Islamist Insurrection in China which
Gul says should be avoided at all costs.
US Options
1. Withdraw from Afghanistan without any major
strategic denuclearizing of Pakistan and avoid a
nuclear conflict which is likely if an attempt is made to
denuclearize Pakistan with Indian assistance.Will
straight lead to realization of Hameed Gul Theory.

11. 2. There is a possibility that US unilateral withdrawal
can lead to another war of interventions in
Afghanistan with Russia and Iran in the lead:--
3. Retain partial presence in Afghanistan and partition
it .A least risk and pragmatic approach strategically
balanced and entirely feasible.
4. Launch an attack in Iran and expand the war . May
be beyond US potential if not materially then at least
in terms of resolution.A US state department official
Doug Scherer termed US leadership as irresolute in
case of Iran.
5. Denuclearise Pakistan , Balkanise the region , keep
a permanent force in Af Pak .A dangerous possibility

12. which can lead to a major conflict possibly nuclear
with China stepping in.